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Michael Hurcomb

Fantasy Therapy: Playoffs and keepers

By | Fantasy Writer


I'm in a keeper league where we only retain one guy. Frank Gore was my keeper last year and he has to go back into the draft pool. I don't have to select a guy until August, but my best options for next season are Chad Johnson, Braylon Edwards or Matt Hasselbeck. However, Ronnie Brown is available for me to pickup. Without damaging my current playoff run, should I drop Heath Miller (I already have Chris Cooley) or one of my worthless running backs (Kenny Watson, Fred Jackson) and add Brown to keep next year. What do you think his value will be? -- Tom Correia

MH: I think you already have your answer: no. The guy you most likely will keep is Edwards. Johnson is a close second. It doesn't hurt to add Brown in lieu of either Watson or Jackson, but Brown will becoming off a serious knee injury next season and might even have a new backfield mate in Darren McFadden. Also, you can likely swipe Brown in possibly Round 3 or 4; whereas there is a chance Edwards' value is elevated to a Round 2 pick.

I'm in a Fantasy Football "pickle" this week. I have three outstanding backs: Brian Westbrook (at Dallas), Willis McGahee (vs. Miami) and uber-hot Ryan Grant (at St. Louis). I'm not sure which two guys I should play this week. My gut is telling me to sit Westbrook, but my head is telling me that he's just too talented to ride the pine. I could also sit McGahee because he's coming off of a brutal week, but he's playing the lowly Dolphins. Help please! --Casey Durnin, Vancouver

MH: Don't be scared of the Dallas run defense. Sure, they have the fourth best unit against the run in the NFL (90.7 ypg), but they let Kevin Jones rush for 92 yards and two touchdowns in Week 14. The Eagles will continue to feed Westbrook the ball no matter the opponent and he will continue to get his yards. Start him. As far as McGahee and Grant, I would start McGahee. He is facing the worst run defense in the NFL. This is the same defense that allowed Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson to total 222 yards on the ground Week 14. Don't look too much into McGahee's Week 14 stats. The Ravens were down against Indianapolis from the get go and had to throw the ball. McGahee should get back on track against the hapless Dolphins.

I have one more game until my league's championship. My receiving core is Terrell Owens, Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Bowe. My question for you is would you start Anthony Gonzalez (at Oakland) or Jabar Gaffney (vs. N.Y. Jets) over Bowe (vs. Tennessee) Week 15? -- Ryan Smith

MH: Gonzalez had his breakout performance against the Ravens in Week 14. He caught six passes for 134 yards and two touchdowns. However, Baltimore's secondary was a little beat up and without top corner Chris McAlister. The Raiders' secondary is in perfect health and will showcase a top-five pass defense against the Colts. Gonzalez will likely remain in the starting lineup as Marvin Harrison (knee) is still a longshot to play. Gaffney, who is at best the fourth wide receiver in New England, is posting stats better than any non-starting wide receiver in the NFL. He does have a touchdown in three straight weeks, but 56 of his 122 yards last week came on one play. If he doesn't get the big play, his numbers suffer. But we could very well see a ton of big plays Sunday as the Patriots look to pound the Jets into submission. Lastly, Bowe's numbers have fallen off in the second half of the season as the Chiefs play QB carousel. He is no longer a reliable Fantasy WR and playing the eighth best pass defense in the NFL in Week 15 doesn't help his cause. I can't believe I am going to say this, but Gaffney is the flavor of the month and probably your best bet.

With news that Selvin Young might get the majority of the reps against the Texans, is he a better start this week than Clinton Portis against the Giants? -- Keith Pieck

MH: Young appears to be the favored back in Denver. He is seeing most of the carries in between the 20s as Travis Henry, who is not at 100 percent because of a bum knee, is seeing a lot of goal line or short-yardage reps. Portis has been relatively injury-free in 2007, but his production is starting to drop. He has just two touchdowns in his last seven games and doesn't have a 100-yard rushing performance in his last four contests. He has tallied more than 50 yards just once in that span as well. Portis takes on the seventh ranked run defense in Week 15 and Young faces a unit ranked 23rd against the run. Young has the fresher set of legs and would be a good start in place of Portis.

Fantasy Quick Hitters

Mike Stogin wants to know: Roddy White (at Tampa Bay) or Kevin Curtis (at Dallas)? Many Fantasy owners are curious to know what will happen to White's production now that Bobby Petrino has exited stage left. My only answer is that very little should change. The interim Falcons coaching staff realizes White is their best option at wide receiver and will continue to feed him the ball. He has a touchdown in each of his last three games with Joey Harrington, Byron Leftwich, Chris Redman, Oscar the Grouch, Tom Brady's infant child, etc., throwing him passes. Curtis continues to give us erratic performances and had only five catches for 51 yards in his earlier meeting with Dallas. My pick: White

Greg Gallo wants to know: Larry Fitzgerald (at New Orleans) or Braylon Edwards (vs. Buffalo)? Fitzgerald returned to the gridiron in Week 14 after missing a game with a groin injury. He caught six passes for 79 yards and a touchdown. His score came late in the fourth quarter with the game well out of reach against Seattle. He didn't have running mate Anquan Boldin (toe) and there is no guarantee he will be back this week. Despite the numbers, Fitzgerald struggled because there was no real threat to pull the Seahawks defenders away. Still, Fitzgerald has six touchdowns in his last four games. Edwards' breakout season continues as he now has 13 touchdowns and one in three straight games. The Bills and Saints both have pathetic pass defenses, so this one is a real toss up. My pick: Fitzgerald, especially if Boldin is healthy.

Shaun Hilton wants to know: Donald Lee (at St. Louis) or Jeremy Shockey (vs. Washington)? Shockey is having a pretty bad season and it can easily be summed up by his first two December games -- three catches for 29 yards and zero touchdowns. But it is not entirely his fault. He doesn't exactly have an All-Pro quarterback slinging him passes. Lee, on the other hand, does have an All-Pro caliber QB and the fifth-year tight end out of Mississippi State is experiencing a career season (569 yards, five TDs). Shockey did have one of his better games this season against the Redskins Week 3 (five catches for 79 yards), but Lee is the more reliable target. My pick: Lee

John Talarico wants to know: Chester Taylor (vs. Chicago) or LenDale White (at Kansas City)? Taylor has just 22 carries in the last two games as he is once again sharing the rushing responsibilities with rookie sensation Adrian Peterson. Taylor had less carries than a banged up Peterson Week 14 against the 49ers, but still managed 101 yards on eight carries. Granted, 84 yards came on one run, but he still has at least one touchdown in four straight games and the Vikings are committed to putting the ball in his hands. White returned from Fantasy oblivion in Week 14 against the Chargers to rush for 113 yards and a touchdown. He had been sharing carries with Chris Brown in the previous four games and it is really anyone's guess on a weekly basis how the Titans intend to use their running backs. My pick: White, unless Peterson is in street clothes and that leaves Taylor with the bulk of carries.

Juan Casanova Jr. wants to know: Ben Roethlisberger (vs. Jacksonville) or Carson Palmer (at San Francisco)? The Bengals have had a very frustrating season, and as a result, Palmer's numbers have suffered. The fact he has zero touchdowns and two interceptions in his last two games is proof enough he is driving Fantasy owners crazy. He does have 21 touchdowns passes, but also 17 interceptions. Roethlisberger has had a very pleasing Fantasy season and his numbers (26 TDs, 11 INTs) look more like what we would expect from Palmer. The Jaguars pass defense is not as strong has it has been in past years, but they have only allowed 15 passing touchdowns and the 49ers have allowed 20. My pick: Palmer finally gets on track Week 15.

Take Two and Call Me in the Morning

Quarterbacks regain the Fantasy spotlight. If I told you that 13 of the top 20 Fantasy scorers heading into Week 15 were quarterbacks, would you believe me? There has been such a priority put on drafting Fantasy running backs, but the stats in 2007 show that drafting a reliable quarterback is as important as making sure your running back stable is complete. Add to the fact that running backs are among the most tackled players in the NFL, we are seeing a lot of tandems emerge, further dropping some players' Fantasy value. Still, in our latest mock draft looking ahead to next season, 18 of the first 24 picks were running backs. Fantasy prescription: As some Fantasy owners already begin to ponder 2008 draft strategies, I offer the advice that you shouldn't overlook quarterbacks or elite wide receivers in the early rounds. The numbers don't lie.

Does Darius Walker have the luck of the Irish? I felt bad for Walker went he came out of Notre Dame after his junior season thanks to some bad advice and then went undrafted. I started my journalism career as a college football recruiting writer and followed Walker while he was an outstanding Georgia prep. Aside from breaking all kinds of Georgia rushing records, he also happened to be one of the most articulate individuals I have ever encountered. To see him make such an ill-advised decision to leave school early was shocking, but redemption might finally be on the horizon. Walker is expected to carry the load Week 15 against the Broncos with Ron Dayne nursing a sprained ankle. Walker carried 16 times for 46 yards in his pro debut in Week 14 against the Bucs. Not too bad going against a top-15 run defense. The Broncos are ranked 29th against the run, but have allowed just 10 rushing touchdowns. Fantasy prescription: You made the Fantasy playoffs without Walker's help, but if you are in need of a "Hail Mary" Fantasy RB or 'flex' option Week 15, then Walker is a viable option.

____________________________

Do you have a question for Michael? You can e-mail him your Fantasy Football questions to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Fantasy Therapy in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware we do not guarantee personal responses to all questions.

 
 
 
Player News
Matt Schaub
Schaub doing well in rehab
Matt Schaub, QB, HOU
1:03 PM
News: The Houston Chronicle reports Tuesday that Texans QB Matt Schaub, who finished the season on injured reserve following foot surgery, is doing well and his rehab is ahead of schedule. The report says Schaub works out almost every day.
Analysis: This is great news, and we expect Schaub to return at 100 percent in 2012. Continue to monitor what happens with Schaub, but he should be considered a low-end No. 1/high-end No. 2 Fantasy QB heading into the season. He is worth a mid-round pick in all leagues on Draft Day.

Lofa Tatupu
Tatupu visits Saints
Lofa Tatupu, LB, SEA
2:36 PM
News: Free agent LB Lofau Tatupu visited with the Saints on Monday, according to NFL.com. The 29-year-old Tatupu sat out the 2011 season. The former Pro Bowl MLB was asked to take a pay cut by the Seahawks after the lockout ended last summer, and subsequently asked for his release. Tatupu was scheduled to visit with the Raiders and Redskins in August, but didn't sign with anyone and fell off the radar for the remainder of the year while he reportedly dealt with a knee injury. Tatupu was scheduled to earn more than $4 million in 2011 before his release by Seattle. The six-year veteran was a second-round pick and has played in three Pro Bowls. But he also started to wear down from 2008-2010, including finishing 2009 on injured reserve with a knee injury. He did start all 16 games in 2010, but had surgery on both knees during the offseason.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Tatupu and where he plays in 2012. When healthy and active he could be a No. 3 Fantasy LB worth a late-round pick in IDP leagues.

Ravens
Flacco, Ravens to work on deal
Ravens, TQB BAL,
12:47 PM
News: The NFL Network reports that the Ravens are set to open contract extension talks with QB Joe Flacco's agent at the NFL Combine next week. The report says both sides aim for a long-term deal. Flacco is entering a contract year in 2012, and Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti recently said Flacco would be the team's starting quarterback for years to come.
Analysis: Flacco's won a lot of games for the Ravens but hasn't taken the next step statistically, even when the team added Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith. Flacco has had between 3,610 and 3,622 passing yards and between 20 and 25 touchdowns in each of his last three seasons. But this year his completion percentage and yards per attempt dropped like a rock while his pass attempts hit a career high (542, breaking the previous mark of 499). Flacco fits the bill as a great No. 2 Fantasy QB; though he's finally outfitted with a quality receiving corps, he simply doesn't invoke much confidence as a starting option. Look for him late in drafts.

Jahvid Best
Best 'on pace' for offseason work
Jahvid Best, RB, DET
12:43 PM
News: The Detroit Free-Press reports that Lions RB Jahvid Best’s status remains uncertain because of concussion problems even though team president Tom Lewand is optimistic. Lewand said Best is "on pace" to be ready for offseason workouts, and he is looking forward to seeing Best and Mikel Leshoure play together. "Jahvid is a special player and he'll be even more dynamic when he can ... share the load with a guy like Mikel in the backfield."
Analysis: We hope Best can return at 100 percent, but he will likely be used as a change of pace rusher and a third-down back. Continue to monitor what happens with Best, but he should only be drafted with a late-round pick in standard leagues and a mid-round selection in PPR formats since he will likely be used in tandem with Leshoure and possibly Kevin Smith if he returns as a free agent.

Mikel Leshoure
Leshoure's recovery going well
Mikel Leshoure, RB, DET
12:40 PM
News: The Detroit Free-Press reports that Lions RB Mikel Leshoure, who tore his left Achilles tendon in the second week of training camp last year, is close to making a full recovery. At the Lions’ request, Leshoure just moved the final stages of his rehab back to Detroit from Arizona. He’s doing resistance work and light running and is expected to join OTA workouts at some point this offseason. Leshoure looked like he was going to be a key part of the Lions offense when injury struck last August, and the team is anxious to get a read on him this spring. RB Jahvid Best’s status remains uncertain because of concussion problems, and even if Best returns it’s clear he’s not an every-down back.
Analysis: Leshoure should be considered a great sleeper heading into 2012, and he is worth drafting as a No. 3 Fantasy RB as long as he's healthy. He has tremendous upside, and he could be a great weapon for the Lions, especially with Best struggling as an every-down back. Continue to monitor what happens with Leshoure, but he is worth drafting as early as Round 6 in 2012.

Mike Wallace
Steelers want to lock up Wallace
Mike Wallace, WR, PIT
12:17 PM
News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday the team wants to keep WR Mike Wallace "here for the long run." Wallace, their leading receiver last season, will become a restricted free agent March 13.
Analysis: Wallace played well in 2011 with 72 catches for 1,193 yards and eight touchdowns on 114 targets. He will remain in Pittsburgh in 2012, and hopefully he can sign a long-term deal. We consider Wallace a Top 10 Fantasy WR on Draft Day, and he should be selected in all leagues in Round 3.

Hines Ward
GM says no decision on Ward yet
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
12:13 PM
News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on whether WR Hines Ward will be back with the Steelers in 2012. "To this current point, no final decisions have been made," Colbert said. "We've had several discussions internally. We're right in the midst of our free agent evaluations of other teams' free agents. We'll meet on those [on the Steelers roster] starting Thursday and carry through Monday." A recent report on NFL Network said that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Brandon Lloyd
Pats could go after Lloyd
Brandon Lloyd, WR, STL
12:08 PM
News: The Boston Herald reports that the Patriots will be in the market for a WR this year, and one obvious possibility is Brandon Lloyd, who is an impending free agent, because of his ties to offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. The fact that Lloyd said “I’m tied to McDaniels” makes him a likely free agent target. Lloyd had 51 catches for 683 yards and five TDs last year in 11 games in St. Louis when McDaniels was the offensive coordinator makes him look pretty good after he amassed 77 catches for 1,448 yards and 11 scores with Denver when McDaniels was the coach.
Analysis: One holdup for Lloyd and the Patriots could be Lloyd's agent, Tom Condon, who has a rocky relationship with the Patriots. We'll see what plays out this offseason, but if Lloyd signs in New England he would be considered a low-end No. 2 Fantasy WR. He could still return to the Rams, where he would be a strong No. 3 option. Or he could shop himself around the league. Stay tuned, but either way Lloyd is worth a mid-round pick in all leagues.

Bills
Fitzpatrick finished season hurt
Bills, TQB BUF,
11:53 AM
News: The Sports Xchange reports that Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick's second-half swoon in 2011 was mystifying to fans and media who concluded the front office badly miscalculated in handing the career journeyman a 10-year, $60 million contract extension. But now it appears Fitzpatrick played the final nine games last season with cracked ribs. "A lot of people don't know, but Fitz, during the Washington game, actually cracked a couple of ribs," WR David Nelson said. "So after that he was playing hurt." It showed. In Fitzpatrick's first seven games of the year, he threw for 1,739 yards, 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. After the injury, he had 2,093 yards, 10 touchdowns and 16 picks. He finished the year with a league-high 23 interceptions. "It's hard to find the silver lining but as we evaluate the season and what went right and what went wrong I'm sure we'll find a lot of positives and a lot of things that we can carry into next year hopefully and continue to get better at it," Fitzpatrick said.
Analysis: Fitzpatrick obviously has 4,000-yard, 25-touchdown potential, but issues involving the personnel around him along with his own issues (accuracy, for one) make him risky for weekly use in Fantasy. Figure that he's worth a late-round pick as a good No. 2 Fantasy QB with potential to be a low-end starter. It should only help him if the Bills not only re-sign Steve Johnson this offseason, but also add talent at wide receiver.

Josh Scobee
Jags want Scobee back
Josh Scobee, K, JAC
11:47 AM
News: The Sports Xchange reports that Jacksonville has most of its top offensive players locked into contracts for the coming season with one notable exception - kicker Josh Scobee, who is an eight-year veteran. Scobee has been one of the league's most accurate kickers in his eight seasons with the Jaguars, converting better than 75 percent of his field-goal attempts in all but one season. Scobee led the team in scoring last year with 92 points, including 23 of 25 (92 percent) field-goal attempts, the second time in his career he's finished over 90 percent with his kicks. It isn't likely the Jaguars would use the franchise tag on him and probably won't have to. They'll make every attempt to sign him. For a team that was among the league's lowest scoring clubs, the Jaguars can ill afford to lose a player with Scobee's talents.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Scobee. He is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues, but he could be used as a bye-week replacement as long as he remains with the Jaguars.

 
 
 
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