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Dave Richard

Free agents all Fantasy owners should watch

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


When Fantasy Football owners go shopping for a player off the waiver wire, they're looking for the best possible player to either fill a hole on their roster or replace an unproductive player. Those owners who routinely check out who's available usually fare better than those who only give a look a few times per season.

In the NFL, everyone's looking for a similar fix every day of the week. But no date looms larger than the opening of free agency, when unsigned players are free to negotiate with any and all interested parties. It marks the beginning of when NFL clubs aim to get better.

Alge Crumpler will be a solid tight end for someone next fall. (US Presswire)  
Alge Crumpler will be a solid tight end for someone next fall. (US Presswire)  
Obviously, paying attention to who goes where is vital for Fantasy owners. When players change teams, the trickle-down effect hits multiple clubs and several key skill-position players. For instance, when Jamal Lewis left Baltimore for Cleveland via free agency, his value stayed the same as an every-down back for the Browns, but he'd give enough of a running presence to help out their passing attack. A day later, Willis McGahee filled the void for the Ravens, boosting the overall value of their offense, and the Bills were left without a running back until Marshawn Lynch was drafted. As it turned out, all three runners did well in their new surroundings, but it doesn't always turn out this way.

Throwing a monkey wrench into all of this are free-agent designations like "franchise tags" and "first-round tendered restricted free agents." We'll explain those as we get into the key free agents, but they're there to help clubs retain their best players.

Let's check out the key names in free agency that Fantasy owners should pay attention to this offseason. Remember, the signings made in March and April will play a role in Fantasy drafts in July and August (and Fantasy championships in December). Click here for a more detailed list of Fantasy-relevant free agents.

Derek Anderson, QB
Where he spent 2007: In Cleveland, where he helped lead the Browns to a 10-6 record.
Offseason expectation: With him orchestrating the next great NFL offense, Anderson isn't likely to get away. He's a restricted free agent who will be tendered at the highest level, meaning any club that signs him would have to give up first- and third-round picks as compensation.
Where he might land: Unless a rival franchise sees Anderson as someone they can build around, he'll be back in Cleveland.

Bernard Berrian, WR
Where he spent 2007: With the Bears, setting career-highs in receptions and receiving yards in only his fourth season.
Offseason expectation: Unless the Bears franchise him, which is unlikely, Berrian will have his pick of the litter from clubs desperate for receiver help. Berrian has excellent speed and very good hands, a dangerous combination against most secondaries.
Where he might land: A California native, Berrian likes to play in warm weather. Receiver-needy teams like San Francisco, Miami, Tennessee, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay and Minnesota (dome!) might be interested in Berrian's services.

Alge Crumpler, TE
Where he spent 2007: With the Falcons, failing to go for 500 yards for the first time in five seasons.
Offseason expectation: A surprise cut by the new regime in Atlanta, Crumpler should find himself with a club that needs a quick fix at tight end. That means a team that feels they have to win now will take a shot on him at a reasonable price tag.
Where he might land: Seattle and Tampa Bay are two clubs that could use a veteran tight end to help them compete for a Super Bowl crown. Tennessee, Buffalo, Indianapolis, New Orleans and Carolina might also consider him.

Jamal Lewis, RB
Where he spent 2007: With the Browns, where he had a renaissance season with over 1,500 total yards and 11 total touchdowns.
Offseason expectation: Lewis was a perfect fit for the Browns, and both he and the team said they'd like to keep their relationship ... but he's still unsigned. They appear to be hung up on the length of the contract (Lewis wants a three-year deal, the Browns want a two-year deal). If their talks continue into March, another team could make a play for Lewis (29 years old next season).
Where he might land: Clubs looking for a power runner might consider Lewis, but the Browns are expected to retain him. If not, he'd fit right in with what Atlanta and Chicago need at running back.

Randy Moss, WR
Where he spent 2007: New England, where he set the single-season receiving touchdown record.
Offseason expectation: The Patriots may have gotten Moss cheap via trade last year but will pay up to keep him. He's expected to be franchised, which means he'll be offered a one-year guaranteed deal in the amount of the five highest-paid wide receivers, and any other team that signs him would have to give the Pats two first-round picks.
Where he might land: He's going nowhere. New England will be his home team in 2008.

Michael Turner, RB
Where he spent 2007: In San Diego, as the backup to LaDainian Tomlinson -- for the fourth straight season.
Offseason expectation: Turner has the ability and health to be an every-down back in the NFL. Suffice to say, he will be in demand.
Where he might land: Any team with a hole in its backfield. Houston, Chicago, Detroit and Atlanta are among those looking for a running back.

Other key players for Fantasy owners to watch: QB Rex Grossman, RBs Aaron Stecker and Derrick Ward, WRs Drew Carter, Justin Gage D.J. Hackett and Bryant Johnson.

Key Fantasy players who have re-signed: QB Shaun Hill, RB Justin Fargas.

Do you agree with Dave? Send your thoughts to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and we'll post the best responses. Be sure to put Attn: Offseason in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
Matt Schaub
Schaub doing well in rehab
Matt Schaub, QB, HOU
1:03 PM
News: The Houston Chronicle reports Tuesday that Texans QB Matt Schaub, who finished the season on injured reserve following foot surgery, is doing well and his rehab is ahead of schedule. The report says Schaub works out almost every day.
Analysis: This is great news, and we expect Schaub to return at 100 percent in 2012. Continue to monitor what happens with Schaub, but he should be considered a low-end No. 1/high-end No. 2 Fantasy QB heading into the season. He is worth a mid-round pick in all leagues on Draft Day.

Lofa Tatupu
Tatupu visits Saints
Lofa Tatupu, LB, SEA
2:36 PM
News: Free agent LB Lofau Tatupu visited with the Saints on Monday, according to NFL.com. The 29-year-old Tatupu sat out the 2011 season. The former Pro Bowl MLB was asked to take a pay cut by the Seahawks after the lockout ended last summer, and subsequently asked for his release. Tatupu was scheduled to visit with the Raiders and Redskins in August, but didn't sign with anyone and fell off the radar for the remainder of the year while he reportedly dealt with a knee injury. Tatupu was scheduled to earn more than $4 million in 2011 before his release by Seattle. The six-year veteran was a second-round pick and has played in three Pro Bowls. But he also started to wear down from 2008-2010, including finishing 2009 on injured reserve with a knee injury. He did start all 16 games in 2010, but had surgery on both knees during the offseason.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Tatupu and where he plays in 2012. When healthy and active he could be a No. 3 Fantasy LB worth a late-round pick in IDP leagues.

Ravens
Flacco, Ravens to work on deal
Ravens, TQB BAL,
12:47 PM
News: The NFL Network reports that the Ravens are set to open contract extension talks with QB Joe Flacco's agent at the NFL Combine next week. The report says both sides aim for a long-term deal. Flacco is entering a contract year in 2012, and Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti recently said Flacco would be the team's starting quarterback for years to come.
Analysis: Flacco's won a lot of games for the Ravens but hasn't taken the next step statistically, even when the team added Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith. Flacco has had between 3,610 and 3,622 passing yards and between 20 and 25 touchdowns in each of his last three seasons. But this year his completion percentage and yards per attempt dropped like a rock while his pass attempts hit a career high (542, breaking the previous mark of 499). Flacco fits the bill as a great No. 2 Fantasy QB; though he's finally outfitted with a quality receiving corps, he simply doesn't invoke much confidence as a starting option. Look for him late in drafts.

Jahvid Best
Best 'on pace' for offseason work
Jahvid Best, RB, DET
12:43 PM
News: The Detroit Free-Press reports that Lions RB Jahvid Best’s status remains uncertain because of concussion problems even though team president Tom Lewand is optimistic. Lewand said Best is "on pace" to be ready for offseason workouts, and he is looking forward to seeing Best and Mikel Leshoure play together. "Jahvid is a special player and he'll be even more dynamic when he can ... share the load with a guy like Mikel in the backfield."
Analysis: We hope Best can return at 100 percent, but he will likely be used as a change of pace rusher and a third-down back. Continue to monitor what happens with Best, but he should only be drafted with a late-round pick in standard leagues and a mid-round selection in PPR formats since he will likely be used in tandem with Leshoure and possibly Kevin Smith if he returns as a free agent.

Mikel Leshoure
Leshoure's recovery going well
Mikel Leshoure, RB, DET
12:40 PM
News: The Detroit Free-Press reports that Lions RB Mikel Leshoure, who tore his left Achilles tendon in the second week of training camp last year, is close to making a full recovery. At the Lions’ request, Leshoure just moved the final stages of his rehab back to Detroit from Arizona. He’s doing resistance work and light running and is expected to join OTA workouts at some point this offseason. Leshoure looked like he was going to be a key part of the Lions offense when injury struck last August, and the team is anxious to get a read on him this spring. RB Jahvid Best’s status remains uncertain because of concussion problems, and even if Best returns it’s clear he’s not an every-down back.
Analysis: Leshoure should be considered a great sleeper heading into 2012, and he is worth drafting as a No. 3 Fantasy RB as long as he's healthy. He has tremendous upside, and he could be a great weapon for the Lions, especially with Best struggling as an every-down back. Continue to monitor what happens with Leshoure, but he is worth drafting as early as Round 6 in 2012.

Mike Wallace
Steelers want to lock up Wallace
Mike Wallace, WR, PIT
12:17 PM
News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday the team wants to keep WR Mike Wallace "here for the long run." Wallace, their leading receiver last season, will become a restricted free agent March 13.
Analysis: Wallace played well in 2011 with 72 catches for 1,193 yards and eight touchdowns on 114 targets. He will remain in Pittsburgh in 2012, and hopefully he can sign a long-term deal. We consider Wallace a Top 10 Fantasy WR on Draft Day, and he should be selected in all leagues in Round 3.

Hines Ward
GM says no decision on Ward yet
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
12:13 PM
News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on whether WR Hines Ward will be back with the Steelers in 2012. "To this current point, no final decisions have been made," Colbert said. "We've had several discussions internally. We're right in the midst of our free agent evaluations of other teams' free agents. We'll meet on those [on the Steelers roster] starting Thursday and carry through Monday." A recent report on NFL Network said that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Brandon Lloyd
Pats could go after Lloyd
Brandon Lloyd, WR, STL
12:08 PM
News: The Boston Herald reports that the Patriots will be in the market for a WR this year, and one obvious possibility is Brandon Lloyd, who is an impending free agent, because of his ties to offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. The fact that Lloyd said “I’m tied to McDaniels” makes him a likely free agent target. Lloyd had 51 catches for 683 yards and five TDs last year in 11 games in St. Louis when McDaniels was the offensive coordinator makes him look pretty good after he amassed 77 catches for 1,448 yards and 11 scores with Denver when McDaniels was the coach.
Analysis: One holdup for Lloyd and the Patriots could be Lloyd's agent, Tom Condon, who has a rocky relationship with the Patriots. We'll see what plays out this offseason, but if Lloyd signs in New England he would be considered a low-end No. 2 Fantasy WR. He could still return to the Rams, where he would be a strong No. 3 option. Or he could shop himself around the league. Stay tuned, but either way Lloyd is worth a mid-round pick in all leagues.

Bills
Fitzpatrick finished season hurt
Bills, TQB BUF,
11:53 AM
News: The Sports Xchange reports that Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick's second-half swoon in 2011 was mystifying to fans and media who concluded the front office badly miscalculated in handing the career journeyman a 10-year, $60 million contract extension. But now it appears Fitzpatrick played the final nine games last season with cracked ribs. "A lot of people don't know, but Fitz, during the Washington game, actually cracked a couple of ribs," WR David Nelson said. "So after that he was playing hurt." It showed. In Fitzpatrick's first seven games of the year, he threw for 1,739 yards, 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. After the injury, he had 2,093 yards, 10 touchdowns and 16 picks. He finished the year with a league-high 23 interceptions. "It's hard to find the silver lining but as we evaluate the season and what went right and what went wrong I'm sure we'll find a lot of positives and a lot of things that we can carry into next year hopefully and continue to get better at it," Fitzpatrick said.
Analysis: Fitzpatrick obviously has 4,000-yard, 25-touchdown potential, but issues involving the personnel around him along with his own issues (accuracy, for one) make him risky for weekly use in Fantasy. Figure that he's worth a late-round pick as a good No. 2 Fantasy QB with potential to be a low-end starter. It should only help him if the Bills not only re-sign Steve Johnson this offseason, but also add talent at wide receiver.

Josh Scobee
Jags want Scobee back
Josh Scobee, K, JAC
11:47 AM
News: The Sports Xchange reports that Jacksonville has most of its top offensive players locked into contracts for the coming season with one notable exception - kicker Josh Scobee, who is an eight-year veteran. Scobee has been one of the league's most accurate kickers in his eight seasons with the Jaguars, converting better than 75 percent of his field-goal attempts in all but one season. Scobee led the team in scoring last year with 92 points, including 23 of 25 (92 percent) field-goal attempts, the second time in his career he's finished over 90 percent with his kicks. It isn't likely the Jaguars would use the franchise tag on him and probably won't have to. They'll make every attempt to sign him. For a team that was among the league's lowest scoring clubs, the Jaguars can ill afford to lose a player with Scobee's talents.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Scobee. He is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues, but he could be used as a bye-week replacement as long as he remains with the Jaguars.

 
 
 
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