Offseason Confidential: Can Grant and Graham keep it going?
By Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer Follow DaveFollow CBS Fantasy Football
While the NFL has seen undrafted players produce at a high level over the course of time, very few undrafted running backs fall into that category. You can say this much about the entire scouting process: the personnel guys know their stuff when it comes to rushers. Since the NFL merger in 1970, only five running backs who weren't drafted managed to rush for 1,000 or more yards in a single season. Of those five, two are active today (Willie Parker, Dominic Rhodes) and another is a former Fantasy legend (Priest Holmes). The other two are John Settle (Atlanta, 1988) and James Allen (Chicago, 2000).
That's why it was so unique that 2007 delivered two undrafted running backs that went from NFL afterthoughts to Fantasy must-starts: Ryan Grant in Green Bay and Earnest Graham in Tampa Bay. Last August, nobody believed either player would help their squad thrive, yet they were most likely active for your team down the stretch if you were fortunate enough to own one or both of them.
Although Grant and Graham had superb seasons, neither one topped 1,000 rush yards last year. But even if 1,000 yards isn't the barometer by which you want to measure undrafted running backs, you're not going to find a lot of these guys who were passed over for seven rounds before finding regular work. In fact, not until recently have undrafted running backs had much of a chance to play on a consistent basis, much less post decent stat totals.
"I think the salary cap has to do it, the amount of games that we play has to do with it and just the skill of these athletes has to do with it," ex-Bucs and current Rams running backs coach Art Valero said. "The season is so long -- you're looking at 20 games and hopefully more. That's a lot of pounding that a runner has to take on, so I think you need a couple of quality, very good running backs. And the more that you can have, or that you can get on your team, the better off you're going to be. And there are some quality players out there that are just waiting for their opportunity to go play."
The common thread through all successful undrafted running backs, and through all successful undrafted players that made an impact, is that they bided their time on special teams before having an opportunity to fill in for an injured or ineffective player, then took advantage. In 2001, Holmes went from afterthought in Baltimore to arguably the top running back in the league in Kansas City. An Edgerrin James knee injury opened the door for Rhodes to tally 1,104 rush yards in 10 starts as an undrafted rookie in 2001. A speedy Parker upstaged a pair of slowed vets in Jerome Bettis and Duce Staley in the preseason only to go on and be the running catalyst for the Steelers in 2005 en route to their championship season.
Grant and Graham are no different. But now that these backs have arrived, how successful will they be? And, what should Fantasy owners expect of them in 2008?
Grant is in the right place
When you think about successful first-round running backs, you don't think about anyone in Green Bay. The Packers haven't drafted a running back with a first-round pick since 1990 (Darrell Thompson) and didn't invest even a second-round pick until they selected Nebraska running back Brandon Jackson in last year's draft. Also, not since 1993 have the Packers had a team-leading rusher that was taken within the first two rounds of any NFL Draft (Thompson). That's a streak of 15 years, a streak Grant will attempt to extend.
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| Ryan Grant was a major key in Green Bay's march toward the NFC Championship Game. (US Presswire) |
Packers general manager Ted Thompson cited draft need as a reason for the Packers bypassing running backs in recent club history, but was able to retrace the steps the club took to secure Grant.
"We liked him coming out," Thompson said. "When he came out in 2005, we had Ahman Green, Najeh Davenport and all these other guys that had been playing here and had been for some time. We had Ryan rated as a draftable player, but we didn't pick him because we were a little heavy at the RB position. When we were watching the Giants last preseason, he was playing well. It also appeared to us that they had a number of running backs that they were going to have to make some tough decisions. So we sort of zeroed in on that team."
Besides finding playing time thanks to injuries to players in front of him on the depth chart, what helped make Grant successful in 2007 was his adaptation to the Packers' zone-blocking scheme. In that system, offensive linemen use their quickness and block in the same direction, and the running back follows suit. Green Bay further tailors it to their strength -- interior running. Grant proved to be a versatile runner who was more intuitive than physical.
The only hole in Grant's game from '07 was his short-yardage play, which improved toward the end of the Packers' postseason run. In his first seven games after taking over the lead role, including Week 8 at Denver, Grant only converted 10-of-35 attempts on downs of five yards or fewer with only two goal-line touchdowns. But between limited play toward the end of the season and then in the postseason, Grant got going. The former Notre Dame runner converted 12-of-20 short-area tries with four goal-line scores, including three vs. Seattle in the Divisional Playoffs. Although he did not fare well in the Packers' NFC Championship Game against the Giants, Grant has done plenty to earn a prominent role in the club's offense in 2008.
"Ryan was a great surprise for us," Packers coach Mike McCarthy said in late February. "He came in and we really liked what he did in the preseason. I thought he'd be a core special-teams player and be able to contribute. But I think he's another excellent example of a young player that took advantage of a great opportunity and was very productive. He's another player I'm looking forward to being around in the offseason program, that can maybe add a few pounds, add some strength. It will be exciting to see how he builds off of this past season."
But with Brett Favre retiring, the defensive looks Grant saw in 2007 won't be the same in 2008. Last year defenses could ill afford to clamp down on the run because of the Packers' aggressive passing plan. With opposing defensive coordinators yet to fear Aaron Rodgers, they'll likely begin the season focusing on Grant. And they might look good doing so -- the Packers are expected to lean on their running game more in '08 to help take some of the pressure off of Rodgers.
"Things change from year to year a little bit, but we were certainly pleased with Ryan's play last year and his production," Thompson said when asked if Grant would still be a key feature in the Packers' 2008 offense. "But over and above that, he was the new guy on the block and fit in with our team very well and he's good in the locker room, very smart, understands the NFL, so we think he has a bright future."
Thompson added that the club will define their roles at running back this offseason, which might mean that Jackson and DeShawn Wynn will see some reps in 2008, cutting into Grant's workload -- especially if he regresses in the short-yardage game. The opportunity will be there for him, but with Favre out of the mix, things will be much different in '08.
Can Graham hold down the Bucs' ship?
Earnest Graham had the ultimate on-again, off-again relationship with the Buccaneers since signing with them in 2004. In his first two seasons, he was a yardage-eater ... in the preseason. He was always on the field ... on special teams. Year after year, he was on the brink of being kicked to the curb, and year after year he kept giving the Bucs reasons to keep him.
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| Earnest Graham might not be a flashy back, but he proved in 2007 he can be effective. (US Presswire) |
Graham finally got a chance to play on offense after Williams suffered a severe knee injury, even though he had to fend off other runners after making two bleak starts. Once established as a physical player, Gruden used him more often to take the pressure off of quarterback Jeff Garcia, and it was more than enough to push the Bucs to a division title.
Unlike Grant, Graham was very capable of converting short-yardage downs, especially touchdowns. Of his 10 scores last year, five were from five yards or less, and he converted on his first attempt three times and his second attempt the other two times.
But Graham isn't as speedy as Grant, owning just over half as many runs of 20-plus yards (six) as Grant (11) without a run longer than 28 yards. Graham compiled three 100-yard games in '07: One was a 34-carry effort vs. the Cardinals and the other two came indoors on the road against porous run defenses in Atlanta and New Orleans. Even his fourth-best running performance in terms of yardage came on the road and indoors at Detroit (another crummy run defense). Eliminate the 34-carry, 124-yard contest vs. Arizona, and Graham's best day at Raymond James Stadium was a 79-yard tally against those woeful Falcons.
It might have been that lacking breakaway speed that pushed the Bucs into signing veteran Warrick Dunn. Gruden had said earlier this offseason that while he had faith in Graham's ability and could trust him with the primary rushing job, he wanted to find him some assistance. Dunn appears to fit that mold as a career catch-and-carry guy who should have enough left in the tank to help on third downs and long passing downs. That will take some reps off of Graham's hands. Then there's the cloudy future of Williams, whose torn patella tendon might sideline him anywhere from half of the 2008 season to the entire year. If he heals up, he'll certainly be asked to take some of Graham's workload. The Bucs are also expected to select a runner in the 2008 NFL Draft, and they've re-signed backup RB Michael Bennett.
Valero might not be in Tampa Bay anymore, but he knows that Graham won't have any issues with this latest road block considering what he has already gone through to get to this point.
"He's not a 4.5 guy. He's not a 4.6 guy. But how he can cut, how he can see his vision, his patience, he's great," Valero said. "I can remember a lot of times in his career when after lifting and running in the dead of the offseason, he and then-teammate Ian Smart and myself would go out and run individual routes. It wasn't that he couldn't do them, he's just never been asked to be in that situation. So we would go out with receivers coach Richard Mann and run wide receiver routes. There were two or three years where we spent a lot of time doing that. You can coach it, but those players doing it in live situations get a whole different feel, and then they're doing what comes natural.
"On those days we'd run routes, the premier runner in the league was Priest Holmes. We would watch similar plays that we had in our offense that Kansas City had, and you could see Priest's patience in setting blocks up and allowing his abilities to take over. Priest wasn't tremendously fast, either, and Earnest found someone he could look at and say, 'Hey, I can be like that guy.'"
Graham may not look like Holmes physically, but he played just like the fellow undrafted running back: Six of his 10 starts were good for at least 100 total yards with touchdowns in five of those six games.
"I can remember when Jon would call a play and all of a sudden say, 'Who's in there?' after he called the play," Valero added. "And I'd say 'Earnest is in there.' He'd say, 'Well what the hell is he doing in there?!' I'd say 'Don't worry, he's good,' and then Earnest would break one off. I'd never hear anything about it again. And in Jon's mind he knew right then that Earnest could do what he asked."
It helps that Graham is fresh -- he only had an ankle tweak in 2007, barely played in his three previous NFL seasons and suffered his last significant injury (knee) in college in 2001. Additionally, the Bucs have one of the brightest and (mostly) youngest offensive lines in the NFL, which is an obvious part in many successful running backs, undrafted or not. It also helps that when the Bucs have a goal-to-go situation, Graham is expected to be in there and get his number called.
Fantasy implications
The best Fantasy running backs are the ones who "do it all." They put in 20-plus carries per game, a handful of catches each week and goal-line carries. There's a reason why they go off the board first in Fantasy drafts.
Grant and Graham aren't in that category, but they figure in soon thereafter.
What makes these players special compared to previous undrafted running backs that faded into obscurity (guys like Samkon Gado and Stacey Mack)? Simply put, it's opportunity. As rare as it's been for undrafted running backs to play well when given the chance, it's even more rare to see their chance extend into the following year. Undrafted runners of years past like Marcel Shipp, Fred Lane and Bernie Parmalee did get such a chance, but faltered it in short order.
As for Grant and Graham, they'll spend 2008 trying to crack into the exclusive club of undrafted 1,000-yard rushers thanks to the opportunities put in front of them. Both of these guys play in up-tempo West Coast offenses and run behind solid offensive lines. Both will have a shot at 20 total touches per game with goal-line work. And both will be reliable No. 2 Fantasy RBs worth a second-round pick in all leagues.
Not bad for a couple of undrafted running backs.
