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Dave Richard

A Fantasy read on the Buffalo Bills

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


From a Fantasy perspective, Lee Evans had his worst season last year. He did not set career lows for receptions, yards, catches for 20-plus yards or a career high for fumbles.

The ultimate stat, however, was a career-worst. Evans had just five touchdowns in 2007.

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The good news is that it doesn't appear to be entirely his fault. While Evans would seemingly vanish for weeks at a time (he totaled five catches for 29 yards over his first three games), the reality is that Buffalo's passing game tanked. Bills quarterbacks totaled two games with at least 250 passing yards and the team finished the year ranked 30th in passing (164.6 pass yards per game).

Suffice to say, the organization knew what they had to address this offseason.

Buffalo named Turk Schonert the new offensive coordinator, and the former NFL quarterback will give some life to this listless pass attack. Trent Edwards has the starting job for now, and even though Evans said previously that he prefers J.P. Losman (now Edwards' backup) throwing his deep routes, Edwards is the smarter, more instinctive passer.

Lee Evans will be as good as his quarterback performs this season. (Getty Images)  
Lee Evans will be as good as his quarterback performs this season. (Getty Images)  
The other issue Evans has dealt with since he came to Buffalo is a lack of a receiving teammate to take defensive pressure off of him. Running back Marshawn Lynch helped a little bit last season, but the Bills needed a receiver capable of getting their opponents' attention on a play-to-play basis. They got it in rookie WR James Hardy, a 6-foot-6 playmaker with incredible jumping ability and solid hands and speed. It might take a few games, but Hardy should quickly develop into a legit receiving threat, taking the routine double- and triple-teams off of Evans.

Positives: While Evans is small compared to other big-name receivers (he's 5-foot-10 and 197 pounds), he can't be called injury prone. He hasn't missed a game in his career. Evans did have offseason shoulder surgery but should be fine for the start of training camp. And while Evans may prefer Losman to Edwards, the two combined for three touchdowns over the team's last four games in 2007. Speaking from a Fantasy point of view, Evans is the must-own late-season Fantasy receiver as 17 of his career 29 touchdowns have come in December, including those three from Edwards last season.

Negatives: Regardless of what Schonert does as Buffalo's play caller, the Bills will be a run-first team. Lynch is too strong of a runner and the O-line is too good of a unit. That will limit the upside for Evans' receptions total, which is already low (55 catches or less in three of four seasons). Evans makes up for it with a high yards-per-catch total, but his touchdown production might suffer with Hardy now in the fold. Hardy is considered a tremendous red-zone jump-ball threat, which means Evans' number won't be called too often when the Bills are inside the 20. Previously, that wouldn't mean so much because most of Evans' touchdowns came from outside the red zone, but three of his five scores last year were inside the 10. Those touchdowns might head Hardy's way now.

Outlook: What might be the most important piece of information about Evans' 2008 season is the fact that he's entering a contract year. Usually when a player is running head-on into an opportunity to sign a lucrative contract, he plays well. Evans shouldn't be an exception, but there is a chance that Buffalo signs him to an extension before the season, which would remove some of his motivation to play well. Ultimately, Evans is the very definition of a top-end No. 3 Fantasy WR -- he's not expected to dominate statistically, but he should be considered reliable for over 50 catches, 850 yards and at least six scores. Round 6 is when you can expect Evans to jump off draft boards this summer -- anything higher is a reach and anything lower is a steal.

Position battle: No. 2 wide receiver

Josh Reed
Pro: For our purposes, there really aren't any. Reed hasn't scored more than two TDs in any NFL campaign and has yet to total over 588 yards in a season. If anything, Reed plays because he's a good route runner and an effective blocker, which is useless for our purposes.
Con: See pro.
James Hardy
Pro: The 6-foot-6 rookie from Indiana might not have to be the team's No. 2 receiver to make a Fantasy impact -- the club might opt to use him as a red-zone option to jump high and come down with touchdowns. Additionally, Hardy has the speed and hands to be reliable over the middle and as a move-the-chains option.
Con: He's a rookie, and rookie WRs tend to take longer to adapt to the NFL game. That might be part of the reason why he has a limited role in 2008. He's also part of a run-first offense that will slow down any shot of him getting even 40 receptions in his first season.
Prediction: We'd be floored if Hardy didn't out-produce Reed in 2008, especially in the end zone. Even if Reed starts, Hardy should be the more prominent Fantasy option.
 
 
 
Player News
Mike Wallace
Steelers want to lock up Wallace
Mike Wallace, WR, PIT
12:17 PM
News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday the team wants to keep WR Mike Wallace "here for the long run." Wallace, their leading receiver last season, will become a restricted free agent March 13.
Analysis: Wallace played well in 2011 with 72 catches for 1,193 yards and eight touchdowns on 114 targets. He will remain in Pittsburgh in 2012, and hopefully he can sign a long-term deal. We consider Wallace a Top 10 Fantasy WR on Draft Day, and he should be selected in all leagues in Round 3.

Hines Ward
GM says no decision on Ward yet
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
12:13 PM
News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on whether WR Hines Ward will be back with the Steelers in 2012. "To this current point, no final decisions have been made," Colbert said. "We've had several discussions internally. We're right in the midst of our free agent evaluations of other teams' free agents. We'll meet on those [on the Steelers roster] starting Thursday and carry through Monday." A recent report on NFL Network said that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Brandon Lloyd
Pats could go after Lloyd
Brandon Lloyd, WR, STL
12:08 PM
News: The Boston Herald reports that the Patriots will be in the market for a WR this year, and one obvious possibility is Brandon Lloyd, who is an impending free agent, because of his ties to offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. The fact that Lloyd said “I’m tied to McDaniels” makes him a likely free agent target. Lloyd had 51 catches for 683 yards and five TDs last year in 11 games in St. Louis when McDaniels was the offensive coordinator makes him look pretty good after he amassed 77 catches for 1,448 yards and 11 scores with Denver when McDaniels was the coach.
Analysis: One holdup for Lloyd and the Patriots could be Lloyd's agent, Tom Condon, who has a rocky relationship with the Patriots. We'll see what plays out this offseason, but if Lloyd signs in New England he would be considered a low-end No. 2 Fantasy WR. He could still return to the Rams, where he would be a strong No. 3 option. Or he could shop himself around the league. Stay tuned, but either way Lloyd is worth a mid-round pick in all leagues.

Bills
Fitzpatrick finished season hurt
Bills, TQB BUF,
11:53 AM
News: The Sports Xchange reports that Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick's second-half swoon in 2011 was mystifying to fans and media who concluded the front office badly miscalculated in handing the career journeyman a 10-year, $60 million contract extension. But now it appears Fitzpatrick played the final nine games last season with cracked ribs. "A lot of people don't know, but Fitz, during the Washington game, actually cracked a couple of ribs," WR David Nelson said. "So after that he was playing hurt." It showed. In Fitzpatrick's first seven games of the year, he threw for 1,739 yards, 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. After the injury, he had 2,093 yards, 10 touchdowns and 16 picks. He finished the year with a league-high 23 interceptions. "It's hard to find the silver lining but as we evaluate the season and what went right and what went wrong I'm sure we'll find a lot of positives and a lot of things that we can carry into next year hopefully and continue to get better at it," Fitzpatrick said.
Analysis: Fitzpatrick obviously has 4,000-yard, 25-touchdown potential, but issues involving the personnel around him along with his own issues (accuracy, for one) make him risky for weekly use in Fantasy. Figure that he's worth a late-round pick as a good No. 2 Fantasy QB with potential to be a low-end starter. It should only help him if the Bills not only re-sign Steve Johnson this offseason, but also add talent at wide receiver.

Josh Scobee
Jags want Scobee back
Josh Scobee, K, JAC
11:47 AM
News: The Sports Xchange reports that Jacksonville has most of its top offensive players locked into contracts for the coming season with one notable exception - kicker Josh Scobee, who is an eight-year veteran. Scobee has been one of the league's most accurate kickers in his eight seasons with the Jaguars, converting better than 75 percent of his field-goal attempts in all but one season. Scobee led the team in scoring last year with 92 points, including 23 of 25 (92 percent) field-goal attempts, the second time in his career he's finished over 90 percent with his kicks. It isn't likely the Jaguars would use the franchise tag on him and probably won't have to. They'll make every attempt to sign him. For a team that was among the league's lowest scoring clubs, the Jaguars can ill afford to lose a player with Scobee's talents.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Scobee. He is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues, but he could be used as a bye-week replacement as long as he remains with the Jaguars.

Rams
Coaches excited about Bradford
Rams, TQB STL,
11:44 AM
News: The Sports Xchange reports that new Rams coach Jeff Fisher and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer are excited to be working with QB Sam Bradford. Fisher has said on several occasions that Bradford's presence was a major factor that made the Rams' job attractive. "Sam was a big part of the decision," Fisher said. "We think he has a chance to be great. A lot of people around the league believe that. We are going to everything possible to make that happen." As Schottenheimer began watching tape of Bradford, he liked what he saw. "Obviously, he's extremely gifted, extremely talented," Schottenheimer said. "As I'm watching the film, getting the sense of how accurate he is with the football and how well he actually moves around and has made plays. That was one of the things that jumped off the film at me. It will be a fun process going through and looking at all the games and just getting a sense of where he's at. Obviously, I've been around a lot of young quarterbacks, but I think this guy's got a chance to be real special."
Analysis: We have high expectations for Bradford heading into 2012, but he still remains just a No. 2 Fantasy QB in the majority of leagues. The Rams need to give Bradford some weapons, but he is someone to draft with a late-round pick with the hope he can develop into a potential starting option in all formats.

Shaun Hill
Hill wants return to Lions
Shaun Hill, QB, DET
11:19 AM
News: The Detroit Free-Press reports that Lions backup QB Shaun Hill would like to return to Detroit in 2012. The Lions have told Hill, his representatives and others that they want him back as the primary backup to Matthew Stafford. Hill also wants to return to Detroit -- and might even take a slight discount to do so. The 32-year-old appeared in two games last year and attempted just three passes, but he made 10 starts in 2010, when Stafford missed 13 games with two separated throwing shoulders.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Hill, but unless he signs with a team and earns a starting job he would not be worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Jerricho Cotchery
Cotchery wants return to Steelers
Jerricho Cotchery, WR, PIT
11:15 AM
News: The Newark Star-Ledger reports that Steelers WR Jerricho Cotchery, who is an impending free agent, would like to return to Pittsburgh in 2012. “In exit meetings (with the Steelers), it was pretty much stated that they were very pleased with me, who I was on the field and off the field,” Cotchery said. “I’m everything that they thought I would be, so from their standpoint, they definitely would want me back. And I expressed the same desire, so we’ll see what happens.”
Analysis: Cotchery was coming off offseason back surgery last season and then missed the first three games with a hamstring injury. He finished with 16 catches for 237 yards, and he caught a 31-yard touchdown pass to force overtime against the Broncos in the wild-card playoff game. Keep an eye on what happens with Cotchery, but he has minimal Fantasy value heading into the year. He should not be drafted in most formats.

Cardinals
Kolb plans to be Cardinals starter
Cardinals, TQB ARI,
11:06 AM
News: The Arizona Republic reports that Cardinals QB Kevin Kolb is not worried about losing his job heading into 2012 with the speculation the team could sign Peyton Manning if he becomes a free agent. "I know how the NFL works," Kolb said, "anything is possible. I just try to keep my mind clear and do what I can on my end. I plan on having a great year and being a Cardinal for a long time." Kolb is due a $7 million bonus if he's on the roster March 17, and said "every indication on my end shows me that I'll be there." Kolb's first season with the Cardinals was hampered by a foot injury and concussion. He missed four games because of the foot and the last three games of the season with the concussion. "I feel good," Kolb said. "I'd say it took three to four weeks after the season was over to not have any symptoms. Once my mind cleared, I got back to working out."
Analysis: Kolb struggled in his first year with the Cardinals in 2011, and he was outplayed by John Skelton for most of the year. Kolb passed for 1,955 passing yards, nine touchdowns and eight interceptions, but he will likely be the starter in 2012 if the team doesn't bring in Manning. Keep an eye on what happens, but Kolb is only worth drafting as a No. 2 Fantasy QB in deeper leagues if he remains the starter with the Cardinals.

Matt Prater
Broncos could franchise Prater
Matt Prater, K, DEN
10:54 AM
News: The Denver Post reports that the Broncos could use the franchise tag on impending free agent kicker Matt Prater. The projected salary for a franchised kicker this year is less than $2.6 million — down 19 percent from $3.176 million in 2011. Prater said near season's end that after five seasons of kicking on year-to-year deals, he was hoping free agency would bring him the security of a long-term contract. Prater drew a $1.835 million salary as a restricted free agent in 2011, when he had four walkoff field goals for wins, including successful overtime kicks of 52 yards at Miami and 51 yards against the Bears.
Analysis: Prater had a solid year in 2011. He was 19 of 25 on field goals and made all 30 extra points. Keep an eye on what happens with him this offseason, but he could be worth drafting with a late-round pick in all leagues if he remains with the Broncos.

 
 
 
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