July 17, 2008

Draft prep: Keeper-league draft advisor for '08

By Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer

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Year after year, we're seeing more Fantasy owners join keeper leagues than keep playing in seasonal formats. We've outlined why that's the case, and how you can start your own keeper league, but the bottom line is that people still want to know one thing when it comes to their Fantasy league:

Who are the best players to keep?

With that in mind, we're putting forth a different kind of rankings, one that lists players based on a keeper league where players can be kept into 2008 with no compensation. Apply our rankings to your league, and you'll have a good idea on where we stand on keeper dilemmas you might have with your prominent players. Simply put, this is the order we'd view the top guys at the major Fantasy spots if we were starting fresh in a keeper league, and we'd consider it a solid guide for those owners already in keeper leagues but checking out who they should hang on to for the long-term.

QUARTERBACKS
Rank	Player	Age	Comment
1	Tom Brady	31	Should be a 4,000-yard, 30-TD passer for years to come with the Patriots.
2	Peyton Manning	32	Wouldn't be surprised if you got five more great years out of him.
3	Tony Romo	28	Young, gunning and running, though Terrell Owens' age is an issue.
4	Drew Brees	29	Brees' experience, track record and more-than-capable arm easily puts him here.
5	Carson Palmer	28	For the long haul, Palmer is safest pick at five thanks to the Bengals' bold receiving duo.
6	Derek Anderson	25	Browns' youth, new contract extension makes Anderson appealing.
7	Ben Roethlisberger	26	TD-happy QB has solid corps now and in the future with WRs Holmes and Sweed.
8	Jay Cutler	25	Everyone's familiar with Cutler's short- and long-term potential.
9	Marc Bulger	31	Has the edge thanks to consistent play at home and strong arm.
10	Eli Manning	27	Lock for 20-plus TDs each season and has room to get better.
11	Matt Hasselbeck	32	Quality passer for years -- how many good seasons are left before he slows down?
12	Donovan McNabb	31	Injury history and Kevin Kolb in his rearview are significant issues.
13	Philip Rivers	28	Talent around him is peaking, but he still has potential to reach.
14	Aaron Rodgers	26	Current offense suits him well. Injury history is a slight problem.
15	JaMarcus Russell	23	Tremendous short- and long-term upside but still a No. 2 QB for now.
RUNNING BACKS
Rank	Player	Age	Note
1	Adrian Peterson	23	Age, ability and O-line make Peterson best keeper-league pick, period.
2	Steven Jackson	25	In a contract year now, should be solid for six more seasons.
3	LaDainian Tomlinson	29	Still amazing, but will he be after he turns 30? Is already thinking retirement.
4	Joseph Addai	25	Should see easy defensive coverage so long as Manning is under center.
5	Marshawn Lynch	22	Strong runner should thrive in run-first Buffalo for several seasons.
6	Marion Barber	25	New contract gives security to go along with outstanding Dallas offense.
7	Frank Gore	25	Age puts him ahead of fellow Miami Hurricane. Knee concerns are behind him.
8	Clinton Portis	27	New Washington offense a great fit for Portis' remaining productive years.
9	Brian Westbrook	29	Westbrook's talent great for '08, but long-term future health is cloudy.
10	Maurice Jones-Drew	23	Young, versatile and touchdown-friendly. What more do you want?
11	Darren McFadden	21	Upside pushes the speedy McFadden up high in keeper league drafts.
12	Willis McGahee	26	Should anchor the Ravens offense until his skills deteriorate in four years.
13	Reggie Bush	23	He may never rush for 1,000 yards, but he'll total close to 1,300 yards per season.
14	Larry Johnson	28	Power-running style lends to shorter career, and KC offense is weak.
15	Laurence Maroney	23	Whether it's now or later, Maroney will be a workhorse in the NFL.
16	Ryan Grant	25	Half-season wonder not a lock to play 10 years in Green Bay.
17	Jonathan Stewart	21	Panthers will build around Stewart for a decade. Great goal-line runner.
18	Ronnie Brown	26	His upside is amazing and his knee injury will only limit him through 2008.
19	Jamal Lewis	29	Short-term expectation still gives him value in keeper leagues.
20	Michael Turner	26	Just 226 career carries and the Falcons are improving. Might be solid at 32 years old.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Rank	Player	Age	Note
1	Larry Fitzgerald	25	Has shot at annually getting 100 catches, 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns.
2	Braylon Edwards	25	Exceptional ability and a long-term standout in Cleveland.
3	Randy Moss	31	Getting long in the tooth, but production should remain high with Patriots.
4	Reggie Wayne	29	Wayne is the new No. 1 guy in Indy and will benefit for years playing with Manning.
5	Marques Colston	25	What is Colston capable of doing as he gets older and more experienced?
6	Terrell Owens	34	Age holds Owens out of the top five. He might be productive for 3-4 more years.
7	Steve Smith	29	Another veteran receiver for the win-now Fantasy owner in keeper leagues.
8	Brandon Marshall	24	Thanks to his size and speed, Marshall should be a No. 1 Fantasy option for a while.
9	Andre Johnson	27	Would rank in the top five if he could stay healthy. No one doubts his skills.
10	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	30	In a contract year in '08, Housh should stay consistent for five years.
11	Chad Johnson	30	As long as Johnson is catching 90 passes per year, he'll have a place in Fantasy.
12	Anquan Boldin	27	With a new contract in Boldin's future, the best is yet to come.
13	Roy Williams	26	Williams is due big bucks soon, and his potential still has yet to be tapped.
14	Wes Welker	27	So long as the Pats keep dishing him short screens, Welker will rack up the yards.
15	Calvin Johnson	22	Eventually, Johnson will put the NFL on its ear. You just have to play the waiting game.
16	Plaxico Burress	31	Injuries coupled with age make Burress less than appealing as a top keeper choice.
17	Santonio Holmes	24	No 1,000-yard seasons yet, but Holmes is a terrific deep missle for the Steelers.
18	Dwayne Bowe	23	Great upside for this physical talent, though the KC offense needs development.
19	Greg Jennings	24	Was 2008 brought on by Brett Favre, or is Jennings on the brink of being a stud?
20	Torry Holt	32	Keeper-league owners want him for his play now, but not in three or four years.
TIGHT ENDS
Rank	Player	Age	Note
1	Jason Witten	26	Role in Dallas offense combined with age and versatility makes him the best TE option.
2	Kellen Winslow	25	Microfracture surgery could limit career length. Otherwise, he'd have a case for No. 1.
3	Antonio Gates	28	Should have four good years left assuming he can heal his ailing toe.
4	Chris Cooley	26	With Zorn coaching for at least three seasons, Cooley's stats should be consistently good.
5	Vernon Davis	24	We're still waiting for him to break out, but he's got a lot of time to make it happen.
6	Dallas Clark	29	Fairly injury prone and too close to 30 to be a top-five keeper-league tight end.
7	Zach Miller	22	Should be Raiders' go-to possession guy for years to come.
8	Greg Olsen	23	Lots of upside with Olsen, and not a lot of receivers in Chicago.
9	Tony Gonzalez	32	Still a candidate for 1,000 yards, but for how much longer?
10	Heath Miller	25	The Steel City loves its smashmouth players, and Miller fits the bill.
11	Owen Daniels	25	Daniels has become reliable target for Matt Schaub, and the offense is on the rise.
12	Dustin Keller	23	Athletic rookie should have 800-yard potential for a decade. First year could be rough.
13	Todd Heap	28	Injury prone and the Ravens are rebuilding. Hard to count on him past 2009.
14	Jeremy Shockey	28	Another short-term fix for Fantasy owners. Has 1,000-yard potential, but gets hurt a lot.
15	Tony Scheffler	25	Moderate stats in first two seasons leaves plenty of room for future production.

Do you have a Draft Prep question? Send it to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and we'll get to as many as we can. Be sure to put Attn: Draft Prep in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.

Leshoure's recovery going well
Mikel Leshoure, RB, DET
12:40 PM

News: The Detroit Free-Press reports that Lions RB Mikel Leshoure, who tore his left Achilles tendon in the second week of training camp last year, is close to making a full recovery. At the Lions’ request, Leshoure just moved the final stages of his rehab back to Detroit from Arizona. He’s doing resistance work and light running and is expected to join OTA workouts at some point this offseason. Leshoure looked like he was going to be a key part of the Lions offense when injury struck last August, and the team is anxious to get a read on him this spring. RB Jahvid Best’s status remains uncertain because of concussion problems, and even if Best returns it’s clear he’s not an every-down back.

Analysis: Leshoure should be considered a great sleeper heading into 2012, and he is worth drafting as a No. 3 Fantasy RB as long as he's healthy. He has tremendous upside, and he could be a great weapon for the Lions, especially with Best struggling as an every-down back. Continue to monitor what happens with Leshoure, but he is worth drafting as early as Round 6 in 2012.

Steelers want to lock up Wallace
Mike Wallace, WR, PIT
12:17 PM

News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday the team wants to keep WR Mike Wallace "here for the long run." Wallace, their leading receiver last season, will become a restricted free agent March 13.

Analysis: Wallace played well in 2011 with 72 catches for 1,193 yards and eight touchdowns on 114 targets. He will remain in Pittsburgh in 2012, and hopefully he can sign a long-term deal. We consider Wallace a Top 10 Fantasy WR on Draft Day, and he should be selected in all leagues in Round 3.

GM says no decision on Ward yet
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
12:13 PM

News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on whether WR Hines Ward will be back with the Steelers in 2012. "To this current point, no final decisions have been made," Colbert said. "We've had several discussions internally. We're right in the midst of our free agent evaluations of other teams' free agents. We'll meet on those [on the Steelers roster] starting Thursday and carry through Monday." A recent report on NFL Network said that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report.

Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Pats could go after Lloyd
Brandon Lloyd, WR, STL
12:08 PM

News: The Boston Herald reports that the Patriots will be in the market for a WR this year, and one obvious possibility is Brandon Lloyd, who is an impending free agent, because of his ties to offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. The fact that Lloyd said “I’m tied to McDaniels” makes him a likely free agent target. Lloyd had 51 catches for 683 yards and five TDs last year in 11 games in St. Louis when McDaniels was the offensive coordinator makes him look pretty good after he amassed 77 catches for 1,448 yards and 11 scores with Denver when McDaniels was the coach.

Analysis: One holdup for Lloyd and the Patriots could be Lloyd's agent, Tom Condon, who has a rocky relationship with the Patriots. We'll see what plays out this offseason, but if Lloyd signs in New England he would be considered a low-end No. 2 Fantasy WR. He could still return to the Rams, where he would be a strong No. 3 option. Or he could shop himself around the league. Stay tuned, but either way Lloyd is worth a mid-round pick in all leagues.

Fitzpatrick finished season hurt
Bills, TQB BUF,
11:53 AM

News: The Sports Xchange reports that Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick's second-half swoon in 2011 was mystifying to fans and media who concluded the front office badly miscalculated in handing the career journeyman a 10-year, $60 million contract extension. But now it appears Fitzpatrick played the final nine games last season with cracked ribs. "A lot of people don't know, but Fitz, during the Washington game, actually cracked a couple of ribs," WR David Nelson said. "So after that he was playing hurt." It showed. In Fitzpatrick's first seven games of the year, he threw for 1,739 yards, 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. After the injury, he had 2,093 yards, 10 touchdowns and 16 picks. He finished the year with a league-high 23 interceptions. "It's hard to find the silver lining but as we evaluate the season and what went right and what went wrong I'm sure we'll find a lot of positives and a lot of things that we can carry into next year hopefully and continue to get better at it," Fitzpatrick said.

Analysis: Fitzpatrick obviously has 4,000-yard, 25-touchdown potential, but issues involving the personnel around him along with his own issues (accuracy, for one) make him risky for weekly use in Fantasy. Figure that he's worth a late-round pick as a good No. 2 Fantasy QB with potential to be a low-end starter. It should only help him if the Bills not only re-sign Steve Johnson this offseason, but also add talent at wide receiver.

Jags want Scobee back
Josh Scobee, K, JAC
11:47 AM

News: The Sports Xchange reports that Jacksonville has most of its top offensive players locked into contracts for the coming season with one notable exception - kicker Josh Scobee, who is an eight-year veteran. Scobee has been one of the league's most accurate kickers in his eight seasons with the Jaguars, converting better than 75 percent of his field-goal attempts in all but one season. Scobee led the team in scoring last year with 92 points, including 23 of 25 (92 percent) field-goal attempts, the second time in his career he's finished over 90 percent with his kicks. It isn't likely the Jaguars would use the franchise tag on him and probably won't have to. They'll make every attempt to sign him. For a team that was among the league's lowest scoring clubs, the Jaguars can ill afford to lose a player with Scobee's talents.

Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Scobee. He is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues, but he could be used as a bye-week replacement as long as he remains with the Jaguars.

Coaches excited about Bradford
Rams, TQB STL,
11:44 AM

News: The Sports Xchange reports that new Rams coach Jeff Fisher and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer are excited to be working with QB Sam Bradford. Fisher has said on several occasions that Bradford's presence was a major factor that made the Rams' job attractive. "Sam was a big part of the decision," Fisher said. "We think he has a chance to be great. A lot of people around the league believe that. We are going to everything possible to make that happen." As Schottenheimer began watching tape of Bradford, he liked what he saw. "Obviously, he's extremely gifted, extremely talented," Schottenheimer said. "As I'm watching the film, getting the sense of how accurate he is with the football and how well he actually moves around and has made plays. That was one of the things that jumped off the film at me. It will be a fun process going through and looking at all the games and just getting a sense of where he's at. Obviously, I've been around a lot of young quarterbacks, but I think this guy's got a chance to be real special."

Analysis: We have high expectations for Bradford heading into 2012, but he still remains just a No. 2 Fantasy QB in the majority of leagues. The Rams need to give Bradford some weapons, but he is someone to draft with a late-round pick with the hope he can develop into a potential starting option in all formats.

Hill wants return to Lions
Shaun Hill, QB, DET
11:19 AM

News: The Detroit Free-Press reports that Lions backup QB Shaun Hill would like to return to Detroit in 2012. The Lions have told Hill, his representatives and others that they want him back as the primary backup to Matthew Stafford. Hill also wants to return to Detroit -- and might even take a slight discount to do so. The 32-year-old appeared in two games last year and attempted just three passes, but he made 10 starts in 2010, when Stafford missed 13 games with two separated throwing shoulders.

Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Hill, but unless he signs with a team and earns a starting job he would not be worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Cotchery wants return to Steelers
Jerricho Cotchery, WR, PIT
11:15 AM

News: The Newark Star-Ledger reports that Steelers WR Jerricho Cotchery, who is an impending free agent, would like to return to Pittsburgh in 2012. “In exit meetings (with the Steelers), it was pretty much stated that they were very pleased with me, who I was on the field and off the field,” Cotchery said. “I’m everything that they thought I would be, so from their standpoint, they definitely would want me back. And I expressed the same desire, so we’ll see what happens.”

Analysis: Cotchery was coming off offseason back surgery last season and then missed the first three games with a hamstring injury. He finished with 16 catches for 237 yards, and he caught a 31-yard touchdown pass to force overtime against the Broncos in the wild-card playoff game. Keep an eye on what happens with Cotchery, but he has minimal Fantasy value heading into the year. He should not be drafted in most formats.

Kolb plans to be Cardinals starter
Cardinals, TQB ARI,
11:06 AM

News: The Arizona Republic reports that Cardinals QB Kevin Kolb is not worried about losing his job heading into 2012 with the speculation the team could sign Peyton Manning if he becomes a free agent. "I know how the NFL works," Kolb said, "anything is possible. I just try to keep my mind clear and do what I can on my end. I plan on having a great year and being a Cardinal for a long time." Kolb is due a $7 million bonus if he's on the roster March 17, and said "every indication on my end shows me that I'll be there." Kolb's first season with the Cardinals was hampered by a foot injury and concussion. He missed four games because of the foot and the last three games of the season with the concussion. "I feel good," Kolb said. "I'd say it took three to four weeks after the season was over to not have any symptoms. Once my mind cleared, I got back to working out."

Analysis: Kolb struggled in his first year with the Cardinals in 2011, and he was outplayed by John Skelton for most of the year. Kolb passed for 1,955 passing yards, nine touchdowns and eight interceptions, but he will likely be the starter in 2012 if the team doesn't bring in Manning. Keep an eye on what happens, but Kolb is only worth drafting as a No. 2 Fantasy QB in deeper leagues if he remains the starter with the Cardinals.

More Updates

1	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tom Brady, NE, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Matthew Stafford, DET, QB
6	Philip Rivers, SD, QB
7	Eli Manning, NYG, QB
8	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
9	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
10	Peyton Manning, IND, QB
All Rankings

1	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
2	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
3	Ray Rice, BAL, RB
4	Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC, RB
5	Matt Forte, CHI, RB
6	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
7	Ryan Mathews, SD, RB
8	Chris Johnson, TEN, RB
9	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
10	Steven Jackson, STL, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Wes Welker, NE, WR
3	Roddy White, ATL, WR
4	Larry Fitzgerald, ARI, WR
5	Hakeem Nicks, NYG, WR
6	Greg Jennings, GB, WR
7	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
8	A.J. Green, CIN, WR
9	Mike Wallace, PIT, WR
10	Miles Austin, DAL, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
5	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
6	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
7	Vernon Davis, SF, TE
8	Jermichael Finley, GB, TE
9	Brent Celek, PHI, TE
10	Fred Davis, WAS, TE
All Rankings

1	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
2	Mason Crosby, GB, K
3	Sebastian Janikowski, OAK, K
4	David Akers, SF, K
5	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
6	Dan Bailey, DAL, K
7	Jason Hanson, DET, K
8	Neil Rackers, HOU, K
9	Alex Henery, PHI, K
10	Nate Kaeding, SD, K
All Rankings

1	49ers, DST
2	Texans, DST
3	Ravens, DST
4	Giants, DST
5	Steelers, DST
6	Seahawks, DST
7	Eagles, DST
8	Packers, DST
9	Jets, DST
10	Patriots, DST
All Rankings