July 17, 2008

Draft prep: Keeper-league draft advisor for '08

By Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer

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Year after year, we're seeing more Fantasy owners join keeper leagues than keep playing in seasonal formats. We've outlined why that's the case, and how you can start your own keeper league, but the bottom line is that people still want to know one thing when it comes to their Fantasy league:

Who are the best players to keep?

With that in mind, we're putting forth a different kind of rankings, one that lists players based on a keeper league where players can be kept into 2008 with no compensation. Apply our rankings to your league, and you'll have a good idea on where we stand on keeper dilemmas you might have with your prominent players. Simply put, this is the order we'd view the top guys at the major Fantasy spots if we were starting fresh in a keeper league, and we'd consider it a solid guide for those owners already in keeper leagues but checking out who they should hang on to for the long-term.

QUARTERBACKS
Rank	Player	Age	Comment
1	Tom Brady	31	Should be a 4,000-yard, 30-TD passer for years to come with the Patriots.
2	Peyton Manning	32	Wouldn't be surprised if you got five more great years out of him.
3	Tony Romo	28	Young, gunning and running, though Terrell Owens' age is an issue.
4	Drew Brees	29	Brees' experience, track record and more-than-capable arm easily puts him here.
5	Carson Palmer	28	For the long haul, Palmer is safest pick at five thanks to the Bengals' bold receiving duo.
6	Derek Anderson	25	Browns' youth, new contract extension makes Anderson appealing.
7	Ben Roethlisberger	26	TD-happy QB has solid corps now and in the future with WRs Holmes and Sweed.
8	Jay Cutler	25	Everyone's familiar with Cutler's short- and long-term potential.
9	Marc Bulger	31	Has the edge thanks to consistent play at home and strong arm.
10	Eli Manning	27	Lock for 20-plus TDs each season and has room to get better.
11	Matt Hasselbeck	32	Quality passer for years -- how many good seasons are left before he slows down?
12	Donovan McNabb	31	Injury history and Kevin Kolb in his rearview are significant issues.
13	Philip Rivers	28	Talent around him is peaking, but he still has potential to reach.
14	Aaron Rodgers	26	Current offense suits him well. Injury history is a slight problem.
15	JaMarcus Russell	23	Tremendous short- and long-term upside but still a No. 2 QB for now.
RUNNING BACKS
Rank	Player	Age	Note
1	Adrian Peterson	23	Age, ability and O-line make Peterson best keeper-league pick, period.
2	Steven Jackson	25	In a contract year now, should be solid for six more seasons.
3	LaDainian Tomlinson	29	Still amazing, but will he be after he turns 30? Is already thinking retirement.
4	Joseph Addai	25	Should see easy defensive coverage so long as Manning is under center.
5	Marshawn Lynch	22	Strong runner should thrive in run-first Buffalo for several seasons.
6	Marion Barber	25	New contract gives security to go along with outstanding Dallas offense.
7	Frank Gore	25	Age puts him ahead of fellow Miami Hurricane. Knee concerns are behind him.
8	Clinton Portis	27	New Washington offense a great fit for Portis' remaining productive years.
9	Brian Westbrook	29	Westbrook's talent great for '08, but long-term future health is cloudy.
10	Maurice Jones-Drew	23	Young, versatile and touchdown-friendly. What more do you want?
11	Darren McFadden	21	Upside pushes the speedy McFadden up high in keeper league drafts.
12	Willis McGahee	26	Should anchor the Ravens offense until his skills deteriorate in four years.
13	Reggie Bush	23	He may never rush for 1,000 yards, but he'll total close to 1,300 yards per season.
14	Larry Johnson	28	Power-running style lends to shorter career, and KC offense is weak.
15	Laurence Maroney	23	Whether it's now or later, Maroney will be a workhorse in the NFL.
16	Ryan Grant	25	Half-season wonder not a lock to play 10 years in Green Bay.
17	Jonathan Stewart	21	Panthers will build around Stewart for a decade. Great goal-line runner.
18	Ronnie Brown	26	His upside is amazing and his knee injury will only limit him through 2008.
19	Jamal Lewis	29	Short-term expectation still gives him value in keeper leagues.
20	Michael Turner	26	Just 226 career carries and the Falcons are improving. Might be solid at 32 years old.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Rank	Player	Age	Note
1	Larry Fitzgerald	25	Has shot at annually getting 100 catches, 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns.
2	Braylon Edwards	25	Exceptional ability and a long-term standout in Cleveland.
3	Randy Moss	31	Getting long in the tooth, but production should remain high with Patriots.
4	Reggie Wayne	29	Wayne is the new No. 1 guy in Indy and will benefit for years playing with Manning.
5	Marques Colston	25	What is Colston capable of doing as he gets older and more experienced?
6	Terrell Owens	34	Age holds Owens out of the top five. He might be productive for 3-4 more years.
7	Steve Smith	29	Another veteran receiver for the win-now Fantasy owner in keeper leagues.
8	Brandon Marshall	24	Thanks to his size and speed, Marshall should be a No. 1 Fantasy option for a while.
9	Andre Johnson	27	Would rank in the top five if he could stay healthy. No one doubts his skills.
10	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	30	In a contract year in '08, Housh should stay consistent for five years.
11	Chad Johnson	30	As long as Johnson is catching 90 passes per year, he'll have a place in Fantasy.
12	Anquan Boldin	27	With a new contract in Boldin's future, the best is yet to come.
13	Roy Williams	26	Williams is due big bucks soon, and his potential still has yet to be tapped.
14	Wes Welker	27	So long as the Pats keep dishing him short screens, Welker will rack up the yards.
15	Calvin Johnson	22	Eventually, Johnson will put the NFL on its ear. You just have to play the waiting game.
16	Plaxico Burress	31	Injuries coupled with age make Burress less than appealing as a top keeper choice.
17	Santonio Holmes	24	No 1,000-yard seasons yet, but Holmes is a terrific deep missle for the Steelers.
18	Dwayne Bowe	23	Great upside for this physical talent, though the KC offense needs development.
19	Greg Jennings	24	Was 2008 brought on by Brett Favre, or is Jennings on the brink of being a stud?
20	Torry Holt	32	Keeper-league owners want him for his play now, but not in three or four years.
TIGHT ENDS
Rank	Player	Age	Note
1	Jason Witten	26	Role in Dallas offense combined with age and versatility makes him the best TE option.
2	Kellen Winslow	25	Microfracture surgery could limit career length. Otherwise, he'd have a case for No. 1.
3	Antonio Gates	28	Should have four good years left assuming he can heal his ailing toe.
4	Chris Cooley	26	With Zorn coaching for at least three seasons, Cooley's stats should be consistently good.
5	Vernon Davis	24	We're still waiting for him to break out, but he's got a lot of time to make it happen.
6	Dallas Clark	29	Fairly injury prone and too close to 30 to be a top-five keeper-league tight end.
7	Zach Miller	22	Should be Raiders' go-to possession guy for years to come.
8	Greg Olsen	23	Lots of upside with Olsen, and not a lot of receivers in Chicago.
9	Tony Gonzalez	32	Still a candidate for 1,000 yards, but for how much longer?
10	Heath Miller	25	The Steel City loves its smashmouth players, and Miller fits the bill.
11	Owen Daniels	25	Daniels has become reliable target for Matt Schaub, and the offense is on the rise.
12	Dustin Keller	23	Athletic rookie should have 800-yard potential for a decade. First year could be rough.
13	Todd Heap	28	Injury prone and the Ravens are rebuilding. Hard to count on him past 2009.
14	Jeremy Shockey	28	Another short-term fix for Fantasy owners. Has 1,000-yard potential, but gets hurt a lot.
15	Tony Scheffler	25	Moderate stats in first two seasons leaves plenty of room for future production.

Do you have a Draft Prep question? Send it to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and we'll get to as many as we can. Be sure to put Attn: Draft Prep in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.

Seymour gets bonus from Raiders
Richard Seymour, DT, OAK
2/12/2012

News: The Oakland Raiders have paid DL Richard Seymour his $7.5 million roster bonus, ensuring he'll stay with the Raiders next season. The Raiders could have released Seymour and his massive contract, but chose instead to keep him and not make wholesale changes to the roster.

Analysis: The 32-year-old Seymour played in all 16 games for the Raiders in 2011 as he recorded 29 tackles and six sacks. His six sacks were his highest total since notching eight in 2008 for New England. Seymour is just a low-end option when it comes to IDP formats in Fantasy play.

Maualuga charged by police
Rey Maualuga, MLB, CIN
2/11/2012

News: Bengals LB Rey Maualuga has officially been charged by Cincinnati police with misdemeanor assault stemming from a bar fight last weekend. This report comes from The Associated Press. The Bengals had no comment.

Analysis: Maualuga is likely to be at least fined for this incident, especially after his 2010 DUI arrest cost him two game checks. He won't miss any playing time, though. Maualuga is just a low-end option in IDP formats heading into next season.

Report: Steelers to cut ties with Ward
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
2/11/2012

News: NFL.com reports that the Steelers are not expected to bring back receiver Hines Ward for 2012. This news comes according to NFL Network's Jason La Canfora. "He has one year left on his deal worth $4 million," said La Canfora. "According to my sources, he won't be back there. So that's $4 million off the books."

Analysis: Ward has said he'd be open to taking a pay cut, but it sounds like Pittsburgh is ready to just cut ties with him. Ward would be a No. 4 WR and that means he'd likely have to play on special teams, which he likely would not want. Ward will have little Fantasy value entering 2012, that is for sure.

Faulk contemplating retirement
Kevin Faulk, RB, NE
2/11/2012

News: New England RB Kevin Faulk is contemplating retirement after being a healthy inactive for the Super Bowl loss to the Giants, reports the Boston Globe. "That morning, when I got the word that I wasn’t going to dress . . . wow," Faulk said. “I went in the room, cried a little bit, because 75 percent of me knew that this could be my last game playing, not playing, just dressing. If I dress, there could be that chance that I could play. So that really crushed me a whole lot. Went into my room, read my Bible, read so many different Scriptures, so many different chapters in the Bible, until it was time to go to the stadium. [I took] my exit physical after the game and the trainers give me a big hug and that’s when I knew, like ‘Wow, that might be it'."

Analysis: Faulk was drafted in 1999 and the 35-year-old RB is a member of New England's 50th anniversary team. He didn't actually declare himself retired, leaving the door slightly ajar on his 14th NFL season. Faulk might finish his career with 31 total touchdowns, 15 receiving and 16 rushing. He had a solid career, but isn't a recommended Fantasy option if he does return next year.

Gronkowski has ankle surgery
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
2/10/2012

News: The Boston Herald reports that Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski underwent successful surgery Friday to fix his ailing ankle. The surgery was an arthroscopic procedure to clean out the ankle. Gronkowski played on a high-ankle sprain in Super Bowl XLVI, battling ligament damage to make two catches for 26 yards. The estimate is that it’s a 10-week recovery. That should allow him to be ready by mid-April, possibly for mini-camp.

Analysis: Continue to monitor what happens with Gronkowski this offseason, but he should be fine for the start of the 2012 season. Consider Gronkowski the No. 1 TE heading into the season. We can see Gronkowski being drafted as a Top 15 pick in all leagues, but it's a safer option to take him toward the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3 in all formats.

Wayne unsure of future
Reggie Wayne, WR, IND
2/10/2012

News: Reggie Wayne told ESPN that while he'd like to stay with the Colts, he's just not sure if they want him. Wayne is scheduled to be a free agent this offseason and understands that his time might be over in Indy after 11 years. "I have been there 11 years and I would prefer to end my career a Colt. However, in due time those feelings could subside," he said. "I haven't heard anything from them yet, so maybe I am not as important on the chain of command as I should be. But either way, I'm cool. I have nothing bad to say about the Colts. ... My phone hasn't rung yet. It's only fair I worry about number 87 first. When I'm signed, then I can weigh in more."

Analysis: Wayne had a mostly horrible season thanks in big part to Peyton Manning being on the sideline. He caught 75 passes for 960 yards and four touchdowns, three coming in the final six weeks of the year. We don't think his 2011 is indicative of a slow-down in his game, but uncertainty about who he'll catch passes from and what his role will be keeps him from being a receiver we can get excited about. For now consider him a No. 3 Fantasy WR worth a mid-round pick.

Differing views on Peyton
Peyton Manning, QB, IND
2/10/2012

News: There are two differing reports on Colts QB Peyton Manning as the saga continues early this offseason in his recovery from missing this past season from neck surgery. CBSSports.com NFL Insider Mike Freeman reports that there remain a handful of team personnel men who have serious doubts he will ever play again or at the very least will miss most of next season. But, according to NFL.com, former Colts vice chairman Bill Polian, who was fired in early January, said he believes Manning will be fine in 2012 after he last saw Manning throw in late December. "It's marked (improvement) from where he was back in September," Polian said. "He threw it accurately, he threw it with a good, tight spiral, and he threw it with velocity. Generally, he looked like a pretty confident quarterback out there." Polian also indicated that Manning was able to make a variety of throws and throw across his body, which differs from a report on NFL Network earlier this week. Polian said that Manning's recovery is "coming, but coming slowly. But, nonetheless, its making progress."

Analysis: The bottom line with Manning is until the public sees him throw or work in practice we won't know where he's at in his recovery. The Colts also have to make a decision on his contract or else he can sign with a new team, with Arizona, Miami and Washington the likely suitors. If healthy, Manning will remain a No. 1 Fantasy QB no matter where he plays, but he has to prove that his neck is 100 percent. Continue to monitor what happens with Manning, and hopefully he can resume his career without any problems.

Jackson cleared, contract coming
Fred Jackson, RB, BUF
2/10/2012

News: Fred Jackson has been cleared to return to football activities for a couple of weeks following a broken fibula, but the good news for him doesn't stop there. The official team website reports that Jackson has been promised by team GM Buddy Nix that he will receive a contract extension, with the timeline set for before the 2012 season. Jackson is slated to be in a contract year as it stands now, but a new deal would change that. "Fred and I have talked," said Nix. "We want to extend Fred. I'd like for Fred to finish his career as a Bill. He's meant a lot to us. I've got great respect for him. We do want Fred back and we do intend to try to work out a deal with him. I've told him that. What we said is what we're going to do."

Analysis: Jackson told the site that he's ready to get started in 2012 after missing the last six games of the season with a broken leg. While he was sidelined, C.J. Spiller stepped up and put some good moves on the field, complicating the Buffalo running back situation heading into the new year. Chances are the Bills will lean on Jackson as they have been, but Spiller could take a bigger share of the run-game workload than in the past, and that could put a cap on what Jackson is capable of doing. He's also 31 years old but doesn't have the wear-and-tear that typically comes with rushers over 30. If the Bills extend Jackson then it will be clear that he's a part of their future and a potential 15-touch-per-game back. If not, he'll be in a contract year and could play well in hopes of cashing in after next season. Either way he represents a solid value as a No. 2 Fantasy RB worth a pick between late Round 3 and early Round 5.

Hawkins gets three-year deal
Lavelle Hawkins, WR, TEN
2/10/2012

News: The Tennessean reports Friday that the Titans have agreed to terms on a contract extension for WR Lavelle Hawkins, who had his best season in 2011. He had 47 catches for 470 yards and one touchdown.

Analysis: Hawkins has minimal Fantasy value heading into 2012, especially if Kenny Britt (knee) returns at 100 percent. Keep an eye on what happens with the Titans receiving corps, but ignore Hawkins on Draft Day in most leagues.

Britt 'working hard'
Kenny Britt, WR, TEN
2/10/2012

News: The Sports Xchange reports that new Titans GM Ruston Webster said WR Kenny Britt, who suffered a torn ACL in September and had surgery in early October, should return in time for training camp in 2012. He said Britt appears to be a fast healer and is ahead of schedule in his recovery. "Kenny has been working hard and he's coming fast, probably even a little faster than I thought he would. So I'm real happy about that," he said. "We expect to have him out there for training camp. The good thing about his injury, is there is a good thing, is it happened early, and he's a very strong young and bounces back very quickly. We're hoping and planning to have him back for training camp."

Analysis: Britt is expected to make a full recovery in time for the start of the 2012 season, and hopefully he can come into training camp in shape. We consider Britt a low-end No. 2/high-end No. 3 Fantasy WR when healthy, and he is worth drafting with a mid-round pick if his knee proves to be 100 percent.

More Updates

1	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tom Brady, NE, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Matthew Stafford, DET, QB
6	Philip Rivers, SD, QB
7	Eli Manning, NYG, QB
8	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
9	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
10	Peyton Manning, IND, QB
All Rankings

1	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
2	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
3	Ray Rice, BAL, RB
4	Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC, RB
5	Matt Forte, CHI, RB
6	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
7	Ryan Mathews, SD, RB
8	Chris Johnson, TEN, RB
9	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
10	Steven Jackson, STL, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Wes Welker, NE, WR
3	Roddy White, ATL, WR
4	Larry Fitzgerald, ARI, WR
5	Hakeem Nicks, NYG, WR
6	Greg Jennings, GB, WR
7	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
8	A.J. Green, CIN, WR
9	Mike Wallace, PIT, WR
10	Miles Austin, DAL, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
5	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
6	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
7	Vernon Davis, SF, TE
8	Jermichael Finley, GB, TE
9	Brent Celek, PHI, TE
10	Fred Davis, WAS, TE
All Rankings

1	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
2	Mason Crosby, GB, K
3	Sebastian Janikowski, OAK, K
4	David Akers, SF, K
5	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
6	Dan Bailey, DAL, K
7	Jason Hanson, DET, K
8	Neil Rackers, HOU, K
9	Alex Henery, PHI, K
10	Nate Kaeding, SD, K
All Rankings

1	49ers, DST
2	Texans, DST
3	Ravens, DST
4	Giants, DST
5	Steelers, DST
6	Seahawks, DST
7	Eagles, DST
8	Packers, DST
9	Jets, DST
10	Patriots, DST
All Rankings