July 2, 2008

Draft prep: Same faces, new places

By Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer

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The best thing to happen to Randy Moss last year was leaving Oakland and ending up in New England. He returned to his perch as the best wide receiver in the NFL.

The same goes for Jamal Lewis in 2007 going from Baltimore to Cleveland, which resurrected his career. Kevin Curtis (St. Louis to Philadelphia) and Wes Welker (Miami to New England) burst on the scene, and Jeff Garcia (Philadelphia to Tampa Bay) showed he still has some plays left in his aging right arm.

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Sometimes a change of scenery is a good thing, and sometimes you end up going from Seattle to San Francisco like Darrell Jackson did and falling off the Golden Gate Bridge of Fantasy relevance. Do you think he misses playing for Mike Holmgren and with Matt Hasselbeck?

The NFL offseason is always a fun time for Fantasy owners. You get to see which players get traded, cut or switch teams as free agents. Nothing is more exciting than reading about a big transaction.

Then the trick is trying to figure out if the move was a good one.

This offseason was a busy one. Several stars changed teams, like Julius Jones, Bernard Berrian and Jerry Porter. Some players are hoping for a chance at stardom with a new team, like Michael Turner, D.J. Hackett and Bryant Johnson. And others are hoping to relive past glory by going home, like Warrick Dunn, Dominic Rhodes and Marty Booker.

Some of these moves will work out and make for better Fantasy options, but others could end up hurting the Fantasy value of a former stud. Here's a look at which players improved their stock or lost value by switching to a new team.

Twenty important moves

Bernard Berrian
Old team: Chicago
New team: Minnesota
Stock: Up
Comment: The quarterback situation in Minnesota is just as bad as in Chicago, but playing indoors with a better supporting cast will help Berrian. Still, he remains a No. 3 Fantasy WR in 2008, but his stats should improve from last year.

Lorenzo Booker
Old team: Miami
New team: Philadelphia
Stock: Up
Comment: Booker wouldn't have gotten a chance to play in Miami this year since the new regime doesn't like smaller backs. Lucky for him he was traded to the Eagles, where coach Andy Reid will use him a lot. Consider Booker a No. 4 Fantasy RB.

Marty Booker
Old team: Miami
New team: Chicago
Stock: Down
Comment: There is more upside with the Dolphins offense this year than the Bears even with the unsettled quarterback situation in Miami. Booker is far from a No. 1 receiver, but that's what he'll be in Chicago. Now defenses will focus on him, lowering his value.

Chris Brown
Old team: Tennessee
New team: Houston
Stock: Up
Comment: Brown was always going to be a backup with the Titans even when he showed promise. He remains a backup to Ahman Green in Houston, but Green is injury prone, meaning Brown has the chance to see the field. Consider him a No. 4 Fantasy RB.


Jerry Porter leaves unfulfilled potential behind in Oakland for a chance in Jacksonville. (Getty Images)

Isaac Bruce
Old team: St. Louis
New team: San Francisco
Stock: Down
Comment: Bruce should still post similar stats with the 49ers that he did the past few seasons with the Rams since he's playing for offensive coordinator Mike Martz again. But going from Marc Bulger to Alex Smith or Shaun Hill is a downgrade.

Alge Crumpler
Old team: Atlanta
New team: Tennessee
Stock: Up
Comment: Crumpler will never be a dominant tight end again, but he might still have one more decent year if Vince Young plays well. Crumpler should be considered a No. 2 Fantasy TE with the chance to start if he develops a rapport with Young.

T.J. Duckett
Old team: Detroit
New team: Seattle
Stock: Up
Comment: Duckett will never be a starting option for the Seahawks, but he could be a great short-yardage back and score some touchdowns. Seattle's vision is for Duckett to complement Julius Jones and Maurice Morris, so consider Duckett a No. 4 Fantasy RB.

Warrick Dunn
Old team: Atlanta
New team: Tampa Bay
Stock: Down
Comment: Dunn went from a starter with the Falcons to possibly third-string in his return to the Bucs. He will play behind Earnest Graham and possibly Cadillac Williams if he comes back from a knee injury. Dunn will likely go undrafted in most leagues.

DeShaun Foster
Old team: Carolina
New team: San Francisco
Stock: Down
Comment: Foster never took advantage of being the starter for the Panthers, and now he's the backup to Frank Gore. If Gore gets hurt, Foster could see his value rise, but now he will get a few touches for a rebuilding team.

D.J. Hackett
Old team: Seattle
New team: Carolina
Stock: Down
Comment: Hackett gets the opportunity to start opposite Steve Smith in a good offense, but the Seahawks offense was better. Matt Hasselbeck also is a better quarterback than Jake Delhomme. Hackett remains a No. 4 Fantasy WR.

Bryant Johnson
Old team: Arizona
New team: San Francisco
Stock: Up
Comment: Johnson goes from No. 3 wide receiver in Arizona to potential No. 1 with the 49ers. Offensive coordinator Mike Martz should improve Johnson's play, which will make him Fantasy relevant this year and a decent No. 3 Fantasy option.

Julius Jones
Old team: Dallas
New team: Seattle
Stock: Up
Comment: Jones was awful the past two seasons in Dallas, but now he gets a chance to touch the ball again with the Seahawks. He was dropped in several Fantasy leagues last year, but now he's a low-end No. 2 Fantasy RB as Shaun Alexander's replacement.

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Josh McCown
Old team: Oakland
New team: Miami
Stock: Up
Comment: McCown will compete with John Beck and Chad Henne to be the starter. In Oakland, he was going to be the backup at best to JaMarcus Russell. If McCown starts he could be useful during the bye weeks as a No. 2 Fantasy QB.

Michael Pittman
Old team: Tampa Bay
New team: Denver
Stock: Up
Comment: Denver likes to rotate running backs, which means Pittman could be starting at some point. He'll share carries with Selvin Young and Ryan Torain to start the season, which is a better opportunity than if he stayed with the Bucs.

Jerry Porter
Old team: Oakland
New team: Jacksonville
Stock: Up
Comment: Porter was decent with the Raiders last season, but now he gets to play in a better offense with a quarterback on the rise. David Garrard is in dire need of a No. 1 receiver, and Porter should fill that role. Consider him a No. 3 Fantasy WR.

Dominic Rhodes
Old team: Oakland
New team: Indianapolis
Stock: Up
Comment: Rhodes was barely used with the Raiders last season. He now returns to the Colts, where he is expected to be the backup for Joseph Addai. Rhodes has the chance for a few touches each game, which makes him a great handcuff option for Addai.

Donte Stallworth
Old team: New England
New team: Cleveland
Stock: Up
Comment: Leaving New England wouldn't normally be an improvement, but Stallworth was overshadowed by Randy Moss and Wes Welker. In Cleveland, Stallworth is still behind Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow, but the Browns will use him more than the Patriots did.

Michael Turner
Old team: San Diego
New team: Atlanta
Stock: Up
Comment: Fantasy owners have been waiting for Turner to leave LaDainian Tomlinson's shadow, and now we get to see what he can do. Turner is a solid No. 3 Fantasy RB with the chance to start in most leagues if he ready for the starting role.

Javon Walker
Old team: Denver
New team: Oakland
Stock: Down
Comment: Walker got off to a bad start with the Raiders by showing up out of shape and then getting in an altercation in Las Vegas. He also gets a downgrade going from a solid offense in Denver to a rebuilding one in Oakland.

Ernest Wilford
Old team: Jacksonville
New team: Miami
Stock: Up
Comment: Wilford has the chance to be a No. 1 receiver for the Dolphins, which should mean more passes in his direction. He had a better quarterback situation in Jacksonville, but he has a better opportunity in Miami to see his stats rise.

Others to watch

Keary Colbert
Old team: Carolina
New team: Denver
Stock: Up

Devard Darling
Old team: Baltimore
New team: Kansas City
Stock: Up

Jason Elam
Old team: Denver
New team: Atlanta
Stock: Down

Anthony Fasano
Old team: Dallas
New team: Miami
Stock: Up

Gus Frerotte
Old team: St. Louis
New team: Minnesota
Stock: Up

Darrell Jackson
Old team: San Francisco
New team: Denver
Stock: Up

Brandon Lloyd
Old team: Washington
New team: Chicago
Stock: Up

Muhsin Muhammad
Old team: Chicago
New team: Carolina
Stock: Up

Ben Utecht
Old team: Indianapolis
New team: Cincinnati
Stock: Up

Troy Williamson
Old team: Minnesota
New team: Jacksonville
Stock: Up

Do you have a Draft Prep question? Send your thoughts to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and we'll post the best responses. Be sure to put Attn: Fantasy Faceoff in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.

PUP list in Mendenhall's future
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
2:15 PM

News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Mendenhall tore his right ACL in Week 17 of last season; recovery time for such injuries is anywhere from nine months to a year.

Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He'll likely get the first crack at starting in place of Mendenhall. There's still a lot of time between now and the regular season, but for now it's probably safe to expect Mendenhall to not be at even close to 100 percent to start the year, which will absolutely impact his Fantasy value. By August, you might be drafting Mendenhall as a middle- to late-round sleeper you'll have to sit on for a while. We'll keep you posted on Mendenhall as best as we can.

Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
10:10 AM

News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to." NFL Network reports that teams have already been calling his agent following the news.

Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
9:39 AM

News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.

Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
9:36 AM

News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.

Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Redman in line to start for Steelers?
Isaac Redman, RB, PIT
2:23 PM

News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. That would open the door for Isaac Redman to be the starting rusher entering training camp.

Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He's also stepped up while working with Mendenhall and without him, though his one other start in 2011 was a flop (61 total yards, no touchdowns vs. Tennessee). By August we might recommend drafting Redman with a pick in Round 6 or 7 as a good early-season starting option with potential to be a quality Fantasy choice for the entire season. We'll see how the Steelers' run game shakes out.

Slaton, Dolphins likely parting ways
Steve Slaton, RB, MIA
12:56 PM

News: The Palm Beach Post reports that RB Steve Slaton is not expected to return to the Dolphins in 2012. Slaton played in three games this season with zero starts after being picked up on waivers before Week 4. He had 17 carries for 64 yards (3.8 average) with one touchdown and a long of 28 and also returned three kickoffs for 85 yards. Slaton was signed as insurance early in the season when both Reggie Bush (groin) and Daniel Thomas (hamstring) battled injuries.

Analysis: Keep an eye on where Slaton plays in 2012, but he likely has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in all leagues on Draft Day.

Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
11:14 AM

News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”

Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
9:53 AM

News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on the future of Hines Ward. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported previously that if the Steelers did decide to release Ward, he was unaware of it. NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report. Ward's 2012 salary is high and he's expected to at least take a significant pay cut, if not get released altogether. Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.

Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
9:49 AM

News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.

Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

Panthers could bring back Shockey
Jeremy Shockey, TE, CAR
9:46 AM

News: The Charlotte Observer considers re-signing free agent TE Jeremy Shockey a "high priority" this offseason. Shockey was the No. 2 TE for the Panthers behind Greg Olsen, and he had a productive season when he caught 37 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns and missed only one game to injury.

Analysis: Though not the same receiver he was a decade ago, Shockey still is a dependable target, particularly in the red zone. If his asking price is too high, Panthers could turn to Gary Barnidge, who was having a great 2011 camp before breaking his ankle. Keep an eye on what happens with Shockey, and if he returns to the Panthers as expected he would be a No. 2 Fantasy TE on Draft Day worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

More Updates

1	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tom Brady, NE, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Matthew Stafford, DET, QB
6	Philip Rivers, SD, QB
7	Eli Manning, NYG, QB
8	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
9	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
10	Peyton Manning, IND, QB
All Rankings

1	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
2	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
3	Ray Rice, BAL, RB
4	Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC, RB
5	Matt Forte, CHI, RB
6	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
7	Ryan Mathews, SD, RB
8	Chris Johnson, TEN, RB
9	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
10	Steven Jackson, STL, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Wes Welker, NE, WR
3	Roddy White, ATL, WR
4	Larry Fitzgerald, ARI, WR
5	Hakeem Nicks, NYG, WR
6	Greg Jennings, GB, WR
7	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
8	A.J. Green, CIN, WR
9	Mike Wallace, PIT, WR
10	Miles Austin, DAL, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
5	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
6	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
7	Vernon Davis, SF, TE
8	Jermichael Finley, GB, TE
9	Brent Celek, PHI, TE
10	Fred Davis, WAS, TE
All Rankings

1	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
2	Mason Crosby, GB, K
3	Sebastian Janikowski, OAK, K
4	David Akers, SF, K
5	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
6	Dan Bailey, DAL, K
7	Jason Hanson, DET, K
8	Neil Rackers, HOU, K
9	Alex Henery, PHI, K
10	Nate Kaeding, SD, K
All Rankings

1	49ers, DST
2	Texans, DST
3	Ravens, DST
4	Giants, DST
5	Steelers, DST
6	Seahawks, DST
7	Eagles, DST
8	Packers, DST
9	Jets, DST
10	Patriots, DST
All Rankings