A sure thing in Fantasy Football? Rudi Johnson was it before last season, averaging 346.3 carries and 1,407 yards over 2004, 2005 and 2006, scoring 12 times in each of those three years. Expectations continued to be high in 2007.
But that's when Johnson stumbled, thanks to a nagging hamstring injury that sabotaged his year. Not only did Johnson fail to play in 16 games and be the constant engine in the Cincinnati offense, but he averaged a paltry 2.9 yards per carry.
There seems to be a stigma that Johnson is an over-the-hill rusher. That is strange since he'll turn 29 years old this October and has just 1,441 career carries. Moreover, the hamstring injury Johnson suffered last season didn't require any major surgery or extensive rehab. Johnson has participated in Bengals' offseason activities and has looked great thanks to adding some muscle.
|
|
|
Are you an owner who thinks Rudi Johnson is over the hill?
(US Presswire)
|
|
Positives: In case Johnson's track record and superb ability isn't enough, consider that he's a key cog in an offense that includes
Carson Palmer at quarterback and
Chad Johnson and
T.J. Houshmandzadeh at wide receiver. Translation: He'll hardly ever see eight defenders in the box, even on first down. That makes life easier for Johnson, as does his healed hamstring. The Bengals have a lot of depth at running back, but no one rusher can compete with Johnson as far as being effective for 16 games.
Negatives: Johnson plays in a tough division that includes the Steelers, Ravens and beefed-up Browns. No more run defense patsies in the AFC North … unless you count the Bengals. His offensive line has also taken a beating; perhaps one of the reasons why his numbers dwindled and his leg got hurt last year was because left guard Eric Steinbach left and the team was decimated by O-line injuries. The Bengals' line is healthy, but not nearly as good as it once was. Finally, the Bengals might reconsider giving Johnson all the carries since fellow rusher Kenny Watson played well in Johnson's absence last year and former first-round pick Chris Perry appears to be healthy and prepared to be at least a third-down back.
Outlook: If Johnson had a good, not great, 2007, he'd be taken as a late first- or early second-round pick in all drafts this summer. But because Fantasy owners are skeptical of him and the Bengals, he's sliding as low as Round 4 in some drafts. Think of Johnson as a solid No. 2 Fantasy RB with obvious upside to be a No. 1 option, well worth a pick anywhere from the middle of Round 2 and beyond. Do not let last year's injury scare you away.
Position battle: No. 1 tight end
 | Reggie Kelly
Pro: Kelly has been the starter in Cincy since 2003 and is on the field anytime the Bengals don't shift past three wide receivers. He's totaled 41 catches over the last two seasons with at least 20 grabs in each.
Con: Kelly is known more for his blocking than his receiving in Cincy. Want proof? His best season -- 31 catches for 340 yards and two TDs -- came in 2000 with Atlanta. Since joining the Bengals in '03, Kelly has three touchdowns with zero last year. |
 | Ben Utecht
Pro: The Bengals dished out the bucks to swipe him from Indianapolis, so they must have designs on how to use him. Here's a hint: He's caught at least 31 passes in his last two seasons with the Colts, who lined him up as an H-back.
Con: Utecht is to speed what Chad Johnson is to quiet. Strictly a possession-type, Utecht won't post huge yardage numbers without catching a ton of passes, which is unlikely considering who he'll share the field with. The Bengals also like his blocking skills and plan on using more two-TE sets. | | Prediction: For our purposes, it's a no-brainer that Utecht is the way to go. He may not look the part, but Utecht is expected to get the passes WR Chris Henry would have gotten had he kept his nose clean. Kelly isn't even good enough to be a bye-week replacement. | |
Position battle: No. 2 running back
 | Chris Perry
Pro: The Bengals refuse to give up on their former first-round pick despite his participation in 22 games over four seasons (including none in 2007). Perry has a nice blend of size and speed to go along with excellent versatility that gives the Bengals a great third-down back to match up with Rudi Johnson.
Con: Well, he played in just 22 games over four seasons including none in 2007. His legs have been worked on quite a bit by doctors, not by defenders. Because he's hardly seen the field, there are concerns about his ability to perform well over several games. Thus, his Fantasy production is a huge question mark. |
 | Kenny Watson
Pro: Watson's versatility made him not only a third-down back last year, but the starter in the games where Johnson couldn't start. And he was effective, averaging 4.2 yards per carry in five starts. Moreover, he totaled over 1,000 yards thanks to his 52 receptions last season. Watson has at least 23 catches in every year he's been healthy for Cincinnati.
Con: Watson is 30 years old and, like Perry, isn't immune to injuries. His large stats last year were directly related to Johnson's ineffective play. Watson is otherwise a candidate for about 300 total yards when Johnson is healthy. | | Prediction: Interestingly enough, this will depend on Rudi Johnson's health. If Rudi stays healthy, Perry will be the better option. But if Rudi gets hurt, then Watson will take over as the physical rusher on first and second downs. For now, Perry will get the better stats. | |
Position battle: No. 3 wide receiver
 | Glenn Holt
Pro: Holt has speed, as evidenced by his 24.4 yards per kickoff return average with a score over two seasons. Entering his third year, Holt recently worked as the club's No. 3 wideout during a June minicamp.
Con: Holt has 17 career catches, with 16 coming last year for an average of 8.9 yards per grab, so his speed hasn't translated to the offense just yet. He also fumbled the ball away twice last season. |
 | Jerome Simpson
Pro: The Bengals tabbed Simpson as a possible replacement for WR Chris Henry thanks to his incredible jumping ability. A dominant force at I-AA Coastal Carolina, Simpson's size and speed warranted his lofty draft status (second round).
Con: Simpson struggled during a June minicamp and is low on the depth chart. Speculation is that he'll begin his career on special teams and eventually grow into a prominent role with the Bengals. Experience is an issue for him as well. |
 | Andre Caldwell
Pro: Caldwell brings big-game experience from Florida to the Bengals and has adapted to the club's offense. He's got excellent speed and fits in either as a slot receiver or an outside option.
Con: Caldwell's a rookie, and even though QB Carson Palmer says Caldwell could start right away, expectations must be tempered. Caldwell broke his leg a few years back and is no lock to stay healthy. | | Prediction: It's unlikely that a rookie receiver will jump out and earn such a solid role from Day 1, so Holt should eke this one out with Caldwell seeing some time, too. However, with Utecht playing a significant role in the passing game, the No. 3 receiver with the Bengals isn't expected to get many more than 20 catches over the course of the season. | |
