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Dave Richard

Draft prep: Tight end strategy tricky as ever

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Let's make this simple: Either you're concentrating on picking up one of the "big three" Fantasy tight ends, or you're not.

If you are, then you deserve kudos for attempting to get maximum production from a spot on your roster that would likely otherwise help your team only so much.

And if you're not, then you also deserve kudos -- for realizing that tight ends practically grow on trees, and finding one that plays every week isn't a hard task, all the while adding a better player to your roster sooner via the draft.

Because no Fantasy owner should draft more tight ends than they need to start, and no Fantasy owner should take one with a pick in the first three rounds, coming up with a strategy for drafting them isn't as important as figuring out what you want to do with them.

The big three

Two years ago, we called the three best running backs in Fantasy Football "the big three" because a case could be made for any one of them going No. 1 overall in a draft. We're borrowing that term this year to describe the three best Fantasy tight ends available: Jason Witten, Kellen Winslow and Antonio Gates.

With these tight ends, the expectation is around 1,000 yards with seven or more touchdowns -- the kind of production you'd like to see from a No. 2 Fantasy wide receiver. The advantage here is obvious -- getting one of these tight ends should result in higher weekly scores for your squad.

Assuming Antonio Gates is over his toe injury, he's a top performer at a thin position. (US Presswire)  
Assuming Antonio Gates is over his toe injury, he's a top performer at a thin position. (US Presswire)  
The disadvantage? You'll have to sacrifice a fourth- or fifth-round pick to get one of them, meaning that, in theory, you'll be a little weaker at another starting position. You probably won't know whether or not it's worth it until you're up in the draft and you see who else is available in those rounds.

The next two

There's little reason to panic if you miss on Witten, Winslow and Gates, as Redskins tight end Chris Cooley and veteran Tony Gonzalez of the Chiefs are about as good. Both play in offenses that heavily rely on their participation and both are perennially healthy.

Of course, they've got their flaws. Cooley is more about touchdowns than yards and Gonzalez is more about yardage than touchdowns. Both also play with suspect quarterbacks, though Cooley's passer (Jason Campbell) has some upside.

So when do Cooley and Gonzalez fly off draft boards? Depends on when the final member of "the big three" gets taken. In several drafts we've seen, owners tend to draft tight ends in chunks, and once the first three are off the board, these next two follow within a span of around 10 picks. They'll both be gone by the end of Round 6.

The rest

Many Fantasy scribes will tell you not to panic if you miss on any of the Top 5 Fantasy tight ends. They're right -- the remaining tight ends available in drafts all pretty much look the same and can be expected to produce roughly 500 yards and 4-5 touchdowns.

That's a big statement considering the players left at the position. But as you'll see, the big names and big potential doesn't mean likely production. Here are the best 10 tight ends after the aforementioned five -- we could ask 10 Fantasy owners to rank these 10 players and get 10 different answers with as many as five tight ends considered the best of the bunch.

Player Team Note
Dallas Clark IND Had a career year in '07 and has since been paid. At least he catches Peyton's passes.
Jeremy Shockey NO Still recovering from a broken leg and bruised ego but has upside in New Orleans' pass-happy offense.
Vernon Davis SF Lots of hype, but 24 games, 774 yards and 7 TDs in two years to show for it.
Todd Heap BAL Despite Cam Cameron, Heap is injury prone and in a poor passing offense.
Heath Miller PIT No consistency to his play and a 550-yard TE despite 18 TDs in three seasons.
Owen Daniels HOU Padded his yardage in second season, but caught only three touchdowns.
Alge Crumpler TEN On paper he's solid for Titans but a chronic knee and sagging average hurt him.
Greg Olsen CHI Might be the Bears' best receiver despite pedestrian rookie season.
L.J. Smith PHI Gets a lot of hype for a guy who's never topped five TDs or 682 receiving yards.
Benjamin Watson NE Has yet to play a 16-game season and has one year with more than 450 yards.

The reality is that none of these tight ends should be expected for 1,000 yards or more than six touchdowns. In fact, the majority of these guys will get closer to 600 yards and four touchdowns. With that information in mind, if you've whiffed on the first five tight ends, it probably means you'll wait to fill that need until one of these guys comes to you with a late-round pick (higher if you go the Clark or Shockey route).

We're not saying it's the best way to go, but if you'd rather build depth and quality at other positions, you're likely picking from this pool.

The last word is that while there are five studs and nearly a dozen decent tight ends, there are some that aren't even listed here with some nice upside. The Cardinals' Leonard Pope, Dustin Keller of the Jets, Oakland's Zach Miller, Cincinnati's Ben Utecht and John Carlson of the Seahawks all have the potential to latch on to the 10-man glut of tight ends. If you're interested in getting a backup tight end, we'd recommend one of them.

For our exclusive preseason tight end rankings, click here .

Do you have a Draft Prep question? Send your thoughts to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and we'll get to as many as we can. Be sure to put Attn: Draft Prep in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
Richard Seymour
Seymour gets bonus from Raiders
Richard Seymour, DT, OAK
2/12/2012
News: The Oakland Raiders have paid DL Richard Seymour his $7.5 million roster bonus, ensuring he'll stay with the Raiders next season. The Raiders could have released Seymour and his massive contract, but chose instead to keep him and not make wholesale changes to the roster.
Analysis: The 32-year-old Seymour played in all 16 games for the Raiders in 2011 as he recorded 29 tackles and six sacks. His six sacks were his highest total since notching eight in 2008 for New England. Seymour is just a low-end option when it comes to IDP formats in Fantasy play.

Rey Maualuga
Maualuga charged by police
Rey Maualuga, MLB, CIN
2/11/2012
News: Bengals LB Rey Maualuga has officially been charged by Cincinnati police with misdemeanor assault stemming from a bar fight last weekend. This report comes from The Associated Press. The Bengals had no comment.
Analysis: Maualuga is likely to be at least fined for this incident, especially after his 2010 DUI arrest cost him two game checks. He won't miss any playing time, though. Maualuga is just a low-end option in IDP formats heading into next season.

Hines Ward
Report: Steelers to cut ties with Ward
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
2/11/2012
News: NFL.com reports that the Steelers are not expected to bring back receiver Hines Ward for 2012. This news comes according to NFL Network's Jason La Canfora. "He has one year left on his deal worth $4 million," said La Canfora. "According to my sources, he won't be back there. So that's $4 million off the books."
Analysis: Ward has said he'd be open to taking a pay cut, but it sounds like Pittsburgh is ready to just cut ties with him. Ward would be a No. 4 WR and that means he'd likely have to play on special teams, which he likely would not want. Ward will have little Fantasy value entering 2012, that is for sure.

Kevin Faulk
Faulk contemplating retirement
Kevin Faulk, RB, NE
2/11/2012
News: New England RB Kevin Faulk is contemplating retirement after being a healthy inactive for the Super Bowl loss to the Giants, reports the Boston Globe. "That morning, when I got the word that I wasn’t going to dress . . . wow," Faulk said. “I went in the room, cried a little bit, because 75 percent of me knew that this could be my last game playing, not playing, just dressing. If I dress, there could be that chance that I could play. So that really crushed me a whole lot. Went into my room, read my Bible, read so many different Scriptures, so many different chapters in the Bible, until it was time to go to the stadium. [I took] my exit physical after the game and the trainers give me a big hug and that’s when I knew, like ‘Wow, that might be it'."
Analysis: Faulk was drafted in 1999 and the 35-year-old RB is a member of New England's 50th anniversary team. He didn't actually declare himself retired, leaving the door slightly ajar on his 14th NFL season. Faulk might finish his career with 31 total touchdowns, 15 receiving and 16 rushing. He had a solid career, but isn't a recommended Fantasy option if he does return next year.

Rob Gronkowski
Gronkowski has ankle surgery
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
2/10/2012
News: The Boston Herald reports that Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski underwent successful surgery Friday to fix his ailing ankle. The surgery was an arthroscopic procedure to clean out the ankle. Gronkowski played on a high-ankle sprain in Super Bowl XLVI, battling ligament damage to make two catches for 26 yards. The estimate is that it’s a 10-week recovery. That should allow him to be ready by mid-April, possibly for mini-camp.
Analysis: Continue to monitor what happens with Gronkowski this offseason, but he should be fine for the start of the 2012 season. Consider Gronkowski the No. 1 TE heading into the season. We can see Gronkowski being drafted as a Top 15 pick in all leagues, but it's a safer option to take him toward the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3 in all formats.

Reggie Wayne
Wayne unsure of future
Reggie Wayne, WR, IND
2/10/2012
News: Reggie Wayne told ESPN that while he'd like to stay with the Colts, he's just not sure if they want him. Wayne is scheduled to be a free agent this offseason and understands that his time might be over in Indy after 11 years. "I have been there 11 years and I would prefer to end my career a Colt. However, in due time those feelings could subside," he said. "I haven't heard anything from them yet, so maybe I am not as important on the chain of command as I should be. But either way, I'm cool. I have nothing bad to say about the Colts. ... My phone hasn't rung yet. It's only fair I worry about number 87 first. When I'm signed, then I can weigh in more."
Analysis: Wayne had a mostly horrible season thanks in big part to Peyton Manning being on the sideline. He caught 75 passes for 960 yards and four touchdowns, three coming in the final six weeks of the year. We don't think his 2011 is indicative of a slow-down in his game, but uncertainty about who he'll catch passes from and what his role will be keeps him from being a receiver we can get excited about. For now consider him a No. 3 Fantasy WR worth a mid-round pick.

Peyton Manning
Differing views on Peyton
Peyton Manning, QB, IND
2/10/2012
News: There are two differing reports on Colts QB Peyton Manning as the saga continues early this offseason in his recovery from missing this past season from neck surgery. CBSSports.com NFL Insider Mike Freeman reports that there remain a handful of team personnel men who have serious doubts he will ever play again or at the very least will miss most of next season. But, according to NFL.com, former Colts vice chairman Bill Polian, who was fired in early January, said he believes Manning will be fine in 2012 after he last saw Manning throw in late December. "It's marked (improvement) from where he was back in September," Polian said. "He threw it accurately, he threw it with a good, tight spiral, and he threw it with velocity. Generally, he looked like a pretty confident quarterback out there." Polian also indicated that Manning was able to make a variety of throws and throw across his body, which differs from a report on NFL Network earlier this week. Polian said that Manning's recovery is "coming, but coming slowly. But, nonetheless, its making progress."
Analysis: The bottom line with Manning is until the public sees him throw or work in practice we won't know where he's at in his recovery. The Colts also have to make a decision on his contract or else he can sign with a new team, with Arizona, Miami and Washington the likely suitors. If healthy, Manning will remain a No. 1 Fantasy QB no matter where he plays, but he has to prove that his neck is 100 percent. Continue to monitor what happens with Manning, and hopefully he can resume his career without any problems.

Fred Jackson
Jackson cleared, contract coming
Fred Jackson, RB, BUF
2/10/2012
News: Fred Jackson has been cleared to return to football activities for a couple of weeks following a broken fibula, but the good news for him doesn't stop there. The official team website reports that Jackson has been promised by team GM Buddy Nix that he will receive a contract extension, with the timeline set for before the 2012 season. Jackson is slated to be in a contract year as it stands now, but a new deal would change that. "Fred and I have talked," said Nix. "We want to extend Fred. I'd like for Fred to finish his career as a Bill. He's meant a lot to us. I've got great respect for him. We do want Fred back and we do intend to try to work out a deal with him. I've told him that. What we said is what we're going to do."
Analysis: Jackson told the site that he's ready to get started in 2012 after missing the last six games of the season with a broken leg. While he was sidelined, C.J. Spiller stepped up and put some good moves on the field, complicating the Buffalo running back situation heading into the new year. Chances are the Bills will lean on Jackson as they have been, but Spiller could take a bigger share of the run-game workload than in the past, and that could put a cap on what Jackson is capable of doing. He's also 31 years old but doesn't have the wear-and-tear that typically comes with rushers over 30. If the Bills extend Jackson then it will be clear that he's a part of their future and a potential 15-touch-per-game back. If not, he'll be in a contract year and could play well in hopes of cashing in after next season. Either way he represents a solid value as a No. 2 Fantasy RB worth a pick between late Round 3 and early Round 5.

Lavelle Hawkins
Hawkins gets three-year deal
Lavelle Hawkins, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Tennessean reports Friday that the Titans have agreed to terms on a contract extension for WR Lavelle Hawkins, who had his best season in 2011. He had 47 catches for 470 yards and one touchdown.
Analysis: Hawkins has minimal Fantasy value heading into 2012, especially if Kenny Britt (knee) returns at 100 percent. Keep an eye on what happens with the Titans receiving corps, but ignore Hawkins on Draft Day in most leagues.

Kenny Britt
Britt 'working hard'
Kenny Britt, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports that new Titans GM Ruston Webster said WR Kenny Britt, who suffered a torn ACL in September and had surgery in early October, should return in time for training camp in 2012. He said Britt appears to be a fast healer and is ahead of schedule in his recovery. "Kenny has been working hard and he's coming fast, probably even a little faster than I thought he would. So I'm real happy about that," he said. "We expect to have him out there for training camp. The good thing about his injury, is there is a good thing, is it happened early, and he's a very strong young and bounces back very quickly. We're hoping and planning to have him back for training camp."
Analysis: Britt is expected to make a full recovery in time for the start of the 2012 season, and hopefully he can come into training camp in shape. We consider Britt a low-end No. 2/high-end No. 3 Fantasy WR when healthy, and he is worth drafting with a mid-round pick if his knee proves to be 100 percent.

 
 
 
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