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Dave Richard

Draft prep: Backs more plentiful than ever

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


The good ol' days of Fantasy Football were great. Back then, most every NFL team had one running back that would take on the bulk of the workload. Only occasionally would a team use more than one running back to split carries roughly in half. In those days, you hoarded as many full-time rushers as you could, drafting the backups with late-round picks just in case a starter got hurt.

The NFL has evolved, and in turn has made the prospect of drafting Fantasy running backs harder. That's running backs -- plural.

Take a gander at the NFL's depth charts and you'll see that you can count the number of teams that truly use a "full time" running back on one hand. Because clubs don't want to lose running backs to injury, many have gone to a committee backfield in an attempt to keep all rushers on the roster fresh.

To fully understand how the landscape has changed, you need to become familiar with the varieties of running backs out there.

• Full-time running backs regularly get over 20 touches per game including work at the goal line and on most third downs.

• Primary running backs near 20 touches per game with goal-line work but are pulled for most third downs and other occasional situations.

• Running down backs work in tandem with a passing down back and line up exclusively in running formations. Most, but not all, of these players are goal-line backs.

• Passing down backs work in tandem with a running down back and work mostly in passing situations and formations. Not many are goal-line backs.

• Utility running backs are running backs who can line up all over the field and be effective. Usually, these runners have excellent receiving skills.

• Short-yardage/goal-line backs (also known as Fantasy vultures) are expected to be in when an offense either needs a few yards for a first down or a touchdown.

It'll be interesting to see how the Parker-Mendenhall tandem works out in Pittsburgh. (Getty Images)  
It'll be interesting to see how the Parker-Mendenhall tandem works out in Pittsburgh. (Getty Images)  
Even with these classifications, not every running back is covered. Adrian Peterson starts and gets goal-line carries for the Vikings, but even he splits carries with Chester Taylor. The Steelers have yet to define roles for Willie Parker and rookie Rashard Mendenhall, and they might not until a few weeks into the regular season. The same goes for the Panthers, Broncos, Bears, Texans and Dolphins.

But with all these spin-off varieties of running backs, there's one huge positive for Fantasy owners. This year, more than any other year, the player pool at running back is as deep as the Grand Canyon. True, not many running backs will start the season as "megabacks," but there are so many players who should average 15 touches per game and have a shot at 100 total yards each week (assuming the matchup is at least decent).

Draft strategy

There's not many draft strategies when it comes to running backs. Most Fantasy owners want to gobble up as many as they can, along with one "insurance policy" to cover their best running back in case he gets hurt.

If anything, your running back draft strategy will coincide with how you view players at other positions. For instance, if your heart is set on getting Tom Brady, you are effectively passing on any top-10 Fantasy running back. If you want to pick up two wide receivers after you go running back in Round 1, then your second running back will be good but not great. For those of you who insist on spending your first three picks on running backs, be aware that the advantages you would have had in previous years aren't going to be there in 2008 because of the multitude of rushers with similar expectations available. That said, if you do go with the three-running back strategy, make sure you get three really stellar running backs.

Tier it up

The best way to break down running backs is to sort them by tiers, or levels of expected production. It goes without saying that you should pick from the highest tier available whenever you're picking a running back.

Perhaps the most significant pre-draft exercise you should do is set your running back tiers. As a result, your drafting will go much smoother and without many conundrums. If you're in a pinch, you can use the one below (essentially our running back rank list with minor tweaks). We'd recommend this list for those owners in standard-scoring leagues.


Plan for byes

One running back rule that hasn't changed is to be aware of the bye weeks for your ballcarriers. Drafting a bunch of running backs only to see them share the same bye week is a tactical nightmare that can be easily avoided.

The best plan of attack is to plot your running backs around the bye weeks of the top rushers you get. Keep in mind that if you draft two great rushers and a third comes available and has the same bye week as one of your first two, you should still draft him and deal with the bye week problems later.

Running Back Bye-Week Cheat Sheet
Bye Week Teams on bye Teams with projected favorable running matchups
Week 4 Colts, Dolphins, Giants, Lions, Patriots, Seahawks 49ers (at NO); Bills (at STL); Browns (at CIN); Chargers (at OAK);
Chiefs (vs. DEN); Jets (vs. ARI); Panthers (at ATL);
Week 5 Browns, Jets, Raiders, Rams Chargers (at MIA); Cowboys (vs. CIN); Packers (at ATL); Vikings (at NO)
Week 6 Bills, Chiefs, Steelers, Titans Bears (at ATL); Jets (vs. CIN); Raiders (at NO); Redskins (vs. STL);
Saints (vs. OAK); Texans (vs. MIA);
Week 7 Cardinals, Eagles, Falcons, Jaguars Cowboys (at STL); Giants (vs. SF); Jets (at OAK);
Panthers (vs. NO); Texans (vs. DET)
Week 8 Bears, Bengals, Broncos, Packers, Texans, Vikings Chargers (at NO); Eagles (vs. ATL); Jets (vs. KC);
Panthers (vs. ARI); Patriots (vs. STL); Ravens (vs. OAK)
Week 9 49ers, Chargers, Panthers, Saints Bears (vs. DET); Broncos (vs. MIA); Cardinals (at STL);
Falcons (at OAK); Jaguars (at CIN); Raiders (vs. ATL); Vikings (vs. HOU)
Week 10 Buccaneers, Cowboys, Ravens, Redskins Falcons (vs. NO); Jaguars (at DET); Jets (vs. STL); Panthers (at OAK);
Saints (at ATL); Seahawks (at MIA); Texans (vs. CIN)

For extensive information about any NFL running back, check out that player's profile page. For our running back rankings, click here.

Do you have a Draft Prep question? Send your thoughts to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and we'll get to as many as we can. Be sure to put Attn: Draft Prep in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
Rashard Mendenhall
PUP list in Mendenhall's future
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
2:15 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Mendenhall tore his right ACL in Week 17 of last season; recovery time for such injuries is anywhere from nine months to a year.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He'll likely get the first crack at starting in place of Mendenhall. There's still a lot of time between now and the regular season, but for now it's probably safe to expect Mendenhall to not be at even close to 100 percent to start the year, which will absolutely impact his Fantasy value. By August, you might be drafting Mendenhall as a middle- to late-round sleeper you'll have to sit on for a while. We'll keep you posted on Mendenhall as best as we can.

Randy Moss
Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
10:10 AM
News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to." NFL Network reports that teams have already been calling his agent following the news.
Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Calvin Johnson
Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
9:39 AM
News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.
Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

DeSean Jackson
Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
9:36 AM
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.
Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Isaac Redman
Redman in line to start for Steelers?
Isaac Redman, RB, PIT
2:23 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. That would open the door for Isaac Redman to be the starting rusher entering training camp.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He's also stepped up while working with Mendenhall and without him, though his one other start in 2011 was a flop (61 total yards, no touchdowns vs. Tennessee). By August we might recommend drafting Redman with a pick in Round 6 or 7 as a good early-season starting option with potential to be a quality Fantasy choice for the entire season. We'll see how the Steelers' run game shakes out.

Steve Slaton
Slaton, Dolphins likely parting ways
Steve Slaton, RB, MIA
12:56 PM
News: The Palm Beach Post reports that RB Steve Slaton is not expected to return to the Dolphins in 2012. Slaton played in three games this season with zero starts after being picked up on waivers before Week 4. He had 17 carries for 64 yards (3.8 average) with one touchdown and a long of 28 and also returned three kickoffs for 85 yards. Slaton was signed as insurance early in the season when both Reggie Bush (groin) and Daniel Thomas (hamstring) battled injuries.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Slaton plays in 2012, but he likely has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in all leagues on Draft Day.

Doug Baldwin
Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
11:14 AM
News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”
Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Hines Ward
Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
9:53 AM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on the future of Hines Ward. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported previously that if the Steelers did decide to release Ward, he was unaware of it. NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report. Ward's 2012 salary is high and he's expected to at least take a significant pay cut, if not get released altogether. Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Josh Morgan
Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
9:49 AM
News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

Jeremy Shockey
Panthers could bring back Shockey
Jeremy Shockey, TE, CAR
9:46 AM
News: The Charlotte Observer considers re-signing free agent TE Jeremy Shockey a "high priority" this offseason. Shockey was the No. 2 TE for the Panthers behind Greg Olsen, and he had a productive season when he caught 37 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns and missed only one game to injury.
Analysis: Though not the same receiver he was a decade ago, Shockey still is a dependable target, particularly in the red zone. If his asking price is too high, Panthers could turn to Gary Barnidge, who was having a great 2011 camp before breaking his ankle. Keep an eye on what happens with Shockey, and if he returns to the Panthers as expected he would be a No. 2 Fantasy TE on Draft Day worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

 
 
 
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