Editor's note: This is a series of 10 predictions of things that will happen in 2008 Fantasy Football leagues according to Senior Fantasy Writer Jamey Eisenberg
Before reading any further, let's make this clear: Draft LaDainian Tomlinson with the No. 1 overall pick in every Fantasy league in 2008.
He is the best player entering the season based on past performance and level of consistency. Tomlinson has topped 1,500 total yards in each of his seven seasons, he's had at least 10 total touchdowns every year, with at least 18 in his last four seasons, and he rarely gets hurt.
But the gap is closing between Tomlinson and the field, and in 2008 he will be passed by one or several other running backs on the Fantasy ladder. At the end of the year, Tomlinson will not finish as the No. 1 Fantasy rusher.
There are several factors working against Tomlinson this year. He's on the cusp of two thresholds that usually spell doom for running backs -- 30 years of age and eight full seasons of work (or about 2,600-career attempts).
Tomlinson is 29 this year and has 2,365 career carries. This will be his eighth season in the NFL.
He also played the most games ever in his career last year with the Chargers run to the AFC Championship Game, putting strain on his body. And he was hurt in the playoffs with a minor left knee sprain, which isn't expected to slow him down, but it could hinder his performance if he suffers a setback.
|
|
|
LaDainian Tomlinson is approaching the stage of his career where other RBs have slowed down.
(US Presswire)
|
|
Tomlinson also has injuries to his supporting cast, with quarterback
Philip Rivers coming off a torn ACL and tight end
Antonio Gates dealing with a dislocated toe. Not having those players on the field or if they are limited will allow opposing defenses to focus even more on Tomlinson.
Now that's not to say Tomlinson won't be successful. He's still a dominant player with a good history. But there might be more upside with a few other running backs.
His main competition will come from Steven Jackson, Brian Westbrook and Adrian Peterson. All have the potential to be the No. 1 running back in Fantasy leagues in 2008.
Last year, Westbrook and Peterson were second and third, respectively, in standard scoring leagues, and Jackson posted decent stats despite missing four games with an injured groin.
Westbrook has averaged more than 2,000 total yards the past two seasons and 11 touchdowns in 14 games. He's shown his durability and ability to post tremendous stats. The downside with Westbrook, unless you still believe he's injury prone, is like Tomlinson, Westbrook is 29 this year.
Peterson has the most upside of every running back in the NFL. As a rookie last year, Peterson rushed for 1,341 yards and scored 13 touchdowns in only 14 games. He shared time with Chester Taylor, but this year Peterson will be even more of a factor, which increases his Fantasy value.
Jackson still is dealing with a groin injury, which could linger into the season, as well as problems with his ankle. But when healthy, he is a candidate for 2,000 total yards and 15 touchdowns, which he reached in 2006. The best part about Jackson is he's entering a contract year, and that should motivate him for great success this year.
Along with this group, other challengers to Tomlinson's throne could be Joseph Addai, Marion Barber and Frank Gore, among others. There will be plenty of running backs gunning for the top spot, and you'll want to grab the right one in your Fantasy league this year.
Again, the safe bet is to continue drafting Tomlinson as the No. 1 overall selection in all Fantasy leagues. You know as long as he's healthy he's going to be consistent with his production. But the competition at the top of the rankings is fierce, and this is the year someone will pass Tomlinson as the No. 1 running back.
Do you have a Draft Prep question? Send your thoughts to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and we'll get to as many as we can. Be sure to put Attn: Draft Prep in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.
