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Jamey Eisenberg

Draft prep: Old school vs. new school

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


What's the best way to draft a Fantasy team?

That's the question we get asked here the most this time of year. And there are several ways to answer it, but two distinct approaches to consider in 2008.

a.) Is it better to draft running backs first since getting a stud is so hard to come by?

b.) Should you wait on running backs and get the best quarterback and wide receivers with your first three picks?

Both strategies work to varying degrees, but obviously it's getting the right players that make the difference between a Fantasy championship and last place. We all know you'd rather be the one holding the trophy then the first pick in next year's draft.

Typically, barring an injury, most picks in the first two or three rounds will be solid players. Sure, you'll get the occasional bust, but usually your top picks come through if they stay healthy.

Going into a draft, you should be ready for what's going to happen after the first round. That's how you'll win your Fantasy league.

The owner who took Braylon Edwards in the eighth round, Jason Witten in the ninth round or LenDale White in the 10th round last year based on their average draft positions on CBSSports.com was probably pretty successful. And those are the types of players we'll try to help you find this year.

There are plenty of strategies to employ when drafting your Fantasy team. There's the tried-and-true philosophy of drafting running backs first because they typically have the most value. You want to get the guy who's going to touch the ball 30 times a game and has the chance to gain yards, catch passes and most importantly, score touchdowns.

But, judging by last year with the way running backs were injured or failed to produce, you can still be successful by building your team a different way. We'll show you why it might be better to start your team with quarterbacks and wide receivers before drafting running backs.

The Fantasy Football bible may tell you it's running backs first and fill in everything else later. But that might not be the only way to draft. As experienced Fantasy owners will tell you, the game is changing, and your philosophy should as well if you want to keep up.

Old school

Getting a stud running back is a dire need, especially in today's game where more teams are going to tandems. And Fantasy owners want to get the best ones early, which is understandable.

Traditional drafting says to take someone like Steven Jackson over Tom Brady in Round One. (US Presswire)  
Traditional drafting says to take someone like Steven Jackson over Tom Brady in Round One. (US Presswire)  
Last year, 14 running backs went in the first 20 picks based on their average draft positions. That will likely happen again this year and probably until the end of time. It's a strategy that typically works, especially if you land two dominant running backs with your first two picks.

But this strategy backfired for plenty of owners last year.

Of the 14 top running backs, only LaDainian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook finished among the top 20 players overall in Fantasy points in standard scoring leagues. Only seven finished among the top 20 running backs (Joseph Addai, Willis McGahee, Frank Gore, Willie Parker, Steven Jackson, Tomlinson and Westbrook). Still, owners will go to the well again, and for good reason.

There is enough talent at quarterback that you can wait until the middle rounds to draft your starter. For example, Brett Favre finished as the seventh-best Fantasy scorer in 2007, and he was drafted in the ninth round according to his average draft position.

Derek Anderson and Kurt Warner, two of the top 10 overall Fantasy scorers last year, weren't drafted in the majority of leagues. And at wide receiver, Randy Moss, Plaxico Burress and Brandon Marshall were all drafted in the fifth round or later, and they were three of the top 10 Fantasy options at their position. That shows that you can wait on drafting quarterbacks and wide receivers and still get talent.

At running back, you want to get the workhorse who will be the centerpiece of your Fantasy team. And yes, there are plenty of choices, with injured stars returning like Larry Johnson and Ronnie Brown. There also are talented rookies expected to start in Oakland (Darren McFadden), Carolina (Jonathan Stewart) and Detroit (Kevin Smith). And new starters have emerged around the league, with Julius Jones going to Seattle, Michael Turner going to Atlanta and Marion Barber now expected to be the man in Dallas. You want to make sure you get your desired player, which is why it makes sense to draft him right away.

If you believe running backs win championships, which is a strategy I have followed my entire career, draft them early. And if you trust you can build a team based on depth at quarterback, wide receiver and tight end, then take a third running back in the top five rounds. You can never have enough good running backs, and building depth at the position with quality players is a great way to win a Fantasy title.

New school

While the elite running backs faltered last year, quarterbacks thrived. Based on a standard scoring league, the top 10 players overall in Fantasy points were all quarterbacks (Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Anderson, Favre, Matt Hasselbeck, Carson Palmer and Warner). That shows you how valuable passers are in Fantasy leagues.

If the traditional idea is to get the best running backs early, why wouldn't the same concept apply to quarterbacks, since they are proven to be better?

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It's doubtful we'll ever see a Fantasy league where the first 10 picks are quarterbacks. There is obviously depth at the position, and you can still get the fifth best quarterback in Big Ben in the eighth round, which is what happened last year.

But maybe it's a good idea to start your team with a quarterback in the first round. And it doesn't have to be Brady or Manning. If you're at the end of the first round and Brady and Manning are gone, take Romo or Brees. Then you can build your team another way.

Instead of taking running backs right away, start your Fantasy team with a quarterback and two wide receivers in some combination of your first four picks with one running back mixed in. Moss finished with just eight Fantasy points less than Tomlinson last year, and six wide receivers finished in the top 30 players overall in Fantasy points (Moss, Edwards, Terrell Owens, Reggie Wayne, Chad Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald).

For example, if you start your team with Moss, Owens and Palmer, you have three players in the top 23 overall from last year. Since receivers and quarterbacks are more durable than running backs, you should only have to replace those starters during bye weeks and aren't locked into handcuffing your top picks.

In following this strategy, there are two things that must happen.

When you start drafting running backs in the fourth round or later, you have to hit on the right guys. Last year, five of the top 12 Fantasy running backs in standard scoring leagues were all drafted in the fourth round or later (Adrian Peterson, Clinton Portis, Jamal Lewis, Marshawn Lynch and Barber), so you can get a stud past the first two rounds.

The other thing you have to do is jump on free agents. Earnest Graham, Ryan Grant and Kenny Watson finished in the top 24 Fantasy running backs, and all three went undrafted in most leagues. You have to grab these types of players when they breakout or even before to fill out your roster if you want to succeed.

It's a risk passing on running backs early and hoping for quality guys to fall your way. But you might find it beneficial if 2008 resembles anything close to what happened last year.

Getting good running backs is what wins Fantasy leagues. But getting a great quarterback and two stud wide receivers early might just be the road less traveled that still leads to the Fantasy pot of gold.

Draft overview

I recently took part in three drafts and an auction with the idea of using different strategies based on where I selected. While I tried to employ different ideas in terms of drafting quarterbacks or wide receivers ahead of running backs, I wasn't able to follow that exactly due to my draft position. The auction gives you an idea of how to spend your money, and the drafts are good examples to follow on where certain players might fall.

Draft 1 Draft 2 Draft 3 Auction
1. Randy Moss, WR, NE 1. Steven Jackson, RB, STL 1. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, SD Brian Westbrook, RB, PHI ($27)
2. Peyton Manning, QB, IND 2. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI 2. Andre Johnson, WR, HOU Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC ($17)
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC 3. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, CIN 3. Marques Colston, WR, NO Marques Colston, WR, NO ($14)
4. Anquan Boldin, WR, ARI 4. Reggie Bush, RB, NO 4. Earnest Graham, RB, TB Darren McFadden, RB, OAK ($13)
5. Selvin Young, RB, DEN 5. Michael Turner, RB, ATL 5. Reggie Bush, RB, NO Roy Williams, WR, DET ($9)
6. Kevin Smith, RB, DET 6. LenDale White, RB, TEN 6. Marc Bulger, QB, STL Marc Bulger, QB, STL ($5)
7. Santana Moss, WR, WAS 7. Lee Evans, WR, BUF 7. Kevin Smith, RB, DET Santana Moss, WR, WAS ($3)
8. Ahman Green, RB, HOU 8. Donovan McNabb, QB, PHI 8. Bobby Engram, WR, SEA Vernon Davis, TE, SF ($3)
9. Ryan Torain, RB, DEN 9. Todd Heap, TE, BAL 9. Vernon Davis, TE, SF Chris Chambers, WR, SD ($2)
10. Donte Stallworth, WR, CLE 10. Bryant Johnson, WR, SF 10. Bryant Johnson, WR, SF Jabar Gaffney, WR, NE ($1)
11. Owen Daniels, TE, HOU 11. Philip Rivers, QB, SD 11. Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB DeShaun Foster, RB, SF ($1)
12. Brandon Jackson, RB, GB 12. Jabar Gaffney, WR, NE 12. Chris Brown, RB, HOU Jason Wright, RB, CLE ($1)
13. N.Y. Giants, DST 13. Josh Brown, K, STL 13. Jabar Gaffney, WR, NE Brandon Jackson, RB, GB ($1)
14. Nate Kaeding, K, SD 14. Eagles, DST 14. Mark Clayton, WR, BAL Jason Campbell, QB, WAS ($1)
15. Seahawks, DST Kris Brown, K, HOU ($1)
16. Neil Rackers, K, ARI Eagles, DST ($1)

Draft 1: This is the first time since my first Fantasy draft in 1998 that I took a receiver in Round 1. The last time was Cris Carter, and this time it's Randy Moss at No. 9. I got lucky that Manning fell to Round 2, but that could be because the other owners were scared of his knee injury. Jones-Drew was my first running back, but getting the Broncos tandem of Young and Torain and then getting Smith, Green and Jackson adds plenty of depth. With Boldin, Santana Moss and Stallworth, I like my receivers. And when drafting Brady, Manning and even Romo, pass on a backup quarterback unless the draft is 16 rounds. You can add a No. 2 quarterback off the waiver wire.

Draft 2: I picked No. 5 overall in this draft and felt fortunate Jackson was still there and followed that with two No. 1-quality receivers in Fitzgerald and Houshmandzadeh. Getting three players like this to start a draft is a great way to go. I was concerned about my running back depth but was still able to land Bush, Turner and White with my next three picks, which locked up the position. Evans gave me a solid trio at receiver, with Johnson and Gaffney as sleeper candidates. I ignored quarterbacks in this draft, but getting McNabb and Rivers will make up for it with the rest of the talent on the roster. Heap also was great value in Round 9 as a No. 1 tight end.

Draft 3: The strategy here is something most owners might want to consider when they draft first or second. Take L.T. or your second running back of choice and then come back with the two best receivers. You can still get great value in the fourth or fifth rounds for your second running back (maybe not as good as Graham or Bush), and now you have four studs as your starters at important spots. Following that, as I did, you can take a quarterback or add more depth at running back and wide receiver. Then fill out your lineup with your tight end. This league starts two running backs, two wide receivers and no flex, so you can see I'm loaded with talent.

Auction: My auction strategy is too spread out my $100 budget as best as possible and have some saved toward the end for some value buys. I did that here, getting three standout running backs in Westbrook, Jones-Drew and McFadden. I did the same thing with my starting receivers in Colston and Williams and then was able to get Moss and Chambers for $5 combined. Depth at running back is a concern, but I added backups I feel can make an impact this year with Foster, Wright and Jackson. I like Wright and Jackson a lot, and they are worth taking with late-round picks or $1 buys in all leagues.

Do you have a Draft Prep question? Send your thoughts to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and we'll get to as many as we can. Be sure to put Attn: Draft Prep in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
Rashard Mendenhall
PUP list in Mendenhall's future
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
2/13/2012
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Mendenhall tore his right ACL in Week 17 of last season; recovery time for such injuries is anywhere from nine months to a year.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He'll likely get the first crack at starting in place of Mendenhall. There's still a lot of time between now and the regular season, but for now it's probably safe to expect Mendenhall to not be at even close to 100 percent to start the year, which will absolutely impact his Fantasy value. By August, you might be drafting Mendenhall as a middle- to late-round sleeper you'll have to sit on for a while. We'll keep you posted on Mendenhall as best as we can.

Randy Moss
Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
2/13/2012
News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to." NFL Network reports that teams have already been calling his agent following the news.
Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Calvin Johnson
Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
2/13/2012
News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.
Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

DeSean Jackson
Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
2/13/2012
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.
Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Isaac Redman
Redman in line to start for Steelers?
Isaac Redman, RB, PIT
2/13/2012
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. That would open the door for Isaac Redman to be the starting rusher entering training camp.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He's also stepped up while working with Mendenhall and without him, though his one other start in 2011 was a flop (61 total yards, no touchdowns vs. Tennessee). By August we might recommend drafting Redman with a pick in Round 6 or 7 as a good early-season starting option with potential to be a quality Fantasy choice for the entire season. We'll see how the Steelers' run game shakes out.

Steve Slaton
Slaton, Dolphins likely parting ways
Steve Slaton, RB, MIA
2/13/2012
News: The Palm Beach Post reports that RB Steve Slaton is not expected to return to the Dolphins in 2012. Slaton played in three games this season with zero starts after being picked up on waivers before Week 4. He had 17 carries for 64 yards (3.8 average) with one touchdown and a long of 28 and also returned three kickoffs for 85 yards. Slaton was signed as insurance early in the season when both Reggie Bush (groin) and Daniel Thomas (hamstring) battled injuries.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Slaton plays in 2012, but he likely has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in all leagues on Draft Day.

Doug Baldwin
Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
2/13/2012
News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”
Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Hines Ward
Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
2/13/2012
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on the future of Hines Ward. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported previously that if the Steelers did decide to release Ward, he was unaware of it. NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report. Ward's 2012 salary is high and he's expected to at least take a significant pay cut, if not get released altogether. Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Josh Morgan
Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
2/13/2012
News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

Jeremy Shockey
Panthers could bring back Shockey
Jeremy Shockey, TE, CAR
2/13/2012
News: The Charlotte Observer considers re-signing free agent TE Jeremy Shockey a "high priority" this offseason. Shockey was the No. 2 TE for the Panthers behind Greg Olsen, and he had a productive season when he caught 37 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns and missed only one game to injury.
Analysis: Though not the same receiver he was a decade ago, Shockey still is a dependable target, particularly in the red zone. If his asking price is too high, Panthers could turn to Gary Barnidge, who was having a great 2011 camp before breaking his ankle. Keep an eye on what happens with Shockey, and if he returns to the Panthers as expected he would be a No. 2 Fantasy TE on Draft Day worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

 
 
 
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