Draft prep: Potential busts for 2008

Every Fantasy Football owner wants to know what players to avoid in their draft. You always want to get a player on the verge of a breakout and not a bust.

Last year, you were happy with Marshawn Lynch but hated Thomas Jones. Derek Anderson came out of nowhere, but Marc Bulger was beset with injuries and couldn't stay on the field.

When looking at players who are going to be a bust, you always want to target players coming off a big year or changing teams to see if they can duplicate the previous year's success. Sometimes injury plays a role, and sometimes there are just unrealistic expectations to live up to.

Then, of course, there's always age. We tend to dislike older players, and if someone has their AARP card, you don't want them on your Fantasy team.

The best thing you can do before your Fantasy draft is target players you definitely don't want on your team. Maybe they'll surprise you with a good season, but when you think a player is going to be a bust, typically that's how they end up.

All average draft positions and projections as of July 23, 2008

Ronnie Brown says he's ready to go, but owners should be wary. (US Presswire)

Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami

Reports heading into training camp say Brown is on track to start the season after suffering a torn ACL in Week 7 last year. Typically it takes most running backs 12 to 18 months to make a full recovery, so Brown would be ahead of schedule. He still has to face contact and deal with making sharp cuts. Last year, Brown finished the season with 602 rushing yards and four touchdowns and 39 catches for 389 yards and a touchdown. Project that over a full season, and Brown would have had 1,367 rushing yards and nine touchdowns and 89 catches for 889 receiving yards and two touchdowns, which would have made him the No. 1 Fantasy running back in standard scoring leagues ahead of LaDainian Tomlinson. If you think Brown can do that again coming off the knee injury, you've been hanging out with Ricky Williams. And speaking of Williams, he's going to take carries away from Brown this year, which will hurt his value. If you draft Brown as a No. 3 Fantasy option, you're in good shape. Anything higher is expecting too much.

Average draft position: 50.22/5th round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 927 rushing yards, five touchdowns, 24 catches, 207 receiving yards, one touchdown

Ryan Grant, RB, Green Bay

When last season ended and early this offseason, Grant looked like a stud coming into 2008. But his contract situation kept him from taking part in minicamps and the start of training camp, and I'm concerned he won't be able to duplicate last year's performance, especially since he got paid a huge contract and loses that motivation. Grant ran for 956 yards and eight touchdowns and caught 30 passes for 145 yards in only seven starts. On top of that, with Brett Favre on his way out of Green Bay, Grant could face more defenders at the line of scrimmage, which means fewer holes to run through. He was great as a breakout last year, but this season he will share playing time with Brandon Jackson, DeShawn Wynn and possibly Vernand Morency. Grant is going to be drafted in the second round, but he won't live up to second-round status.

Average draft position: 23.24/2nd round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 1,236 rushing yards, eight touchdowns, 25 catches, 156 receiving yards

Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seattle

It's never a good thing when your best receiver suffers a torn ACL, your favorite target is a potential hold out, you lose your third best receiver as a free agent and your only other reliable target is needed more on special teams in returns than as a receiver. That's what Hasselbeck is facing this year. Deion Branch is out to start the season, Bobby Engram is disappointed with his contract, D.J. Hackett is in Carolina and Nate Burleson creates more plays returning kicks than he does on offense. While Burleson will make a solid impact on offense this year, and Engram should be fine to start the season, those receivers -- along with Ben Obomanu, Courtney Taylor and Logan Payne -- aren't scaring many opposing defenses. Rookie tight end John Carlson should help, but Hasselbeck might finish the season as a No. 2 Fantasy option instead of as a starter. He won't approach 3,966 yards and 28 touchdowns again this year like he did in 2007.

Average draft position: 73.17/7th round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 3,349 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 94 rushing yards

Torry Holt, WR, St. Louis

Holt hasn't had less than 81 catches and 1,100 yards since his rookie year in 1999 and has 48 touchdowns the past five seasons. Last year, despite the Rams offense falling apart due to injuries, Holt still caught 93 passes for 1,189 yards and seven touchdowns. Now the rest of the offense is healthy, but Holt might not be 100 percent. The knee pain he dealt with last year hasn't gone away. Along with that, he'll be 32 this year and could see more coverage without Isaac Bruce, who is now in San Francisco. Opposing defenses will focus on Holt and take their chances with Drew Bennett, Donnie Avery and Randy McMichael in the passing game. And new offensive coordinator Al Saunders will put more emphasis in the running game with Steven Jackson. It adds up to Holt being drafted as a No. 1 Fantasy option but possibly finishing the year as a disappointment.

Average draft position: 35.93/3rd round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 100 catches, 1,233 receiving yards, eight touchdowns

Chad Johnson, WR, Cincinnati

Johnson had 93 catches for 1,440 yards and eight touchdowns last year, which made him an elite receiver in standard scoring leagues. But those stats were deceiving because Johnson was more bust than boom. He went scoreless in 12 of 13 games from September to December and scored all his touchdowns in four games. He also only had five games with more than 100 yards. And now he's unhappy with his contract and has a bad ankle coming into the year. He's going to play under his current deal, but at what point will he start whining again like he did during the offseason? Jerry Rice doesn't expect Johnson to do well this year. "Chad is a creative guy with the celebrations, and he's productive on the field," Rice said in an interview with CBSSports.com this offseason. "But right now he's an unhappy camper. As long as he's unhappy, he's not going to have a productive year. "

Average draft position: 34.87/3rd round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 86 catches, 1,241 receiving yards, eight touchdowns

Jon Kitna, QB, Detroit

You're saying to yourself right now: How can a quarterback who passed for more interceptions (20) than touchdowns (18) last year be a bust this year? Well, the thought here is don't draft Kitna in any league. I know he still passed for 4,068 yards last year and 4,208 yards in 2006 and plays with one of the best receiving tandems in Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson. But the loss of offensive coordinator Mike Martz and the Lions promise to run the ball more in 2008 is more than enough to leave Kitna on the waiver wire. He takes too many sacks and forces the ball into coverage, which hurts his Fantasy value. Williams and Johnson will help Kitna get close to 20 touchdowns, but his yardage will suffer now that Martz is gone. Kitna went from a top 10 option last year to someone who shouldn't be drafted in 2008.

Average draft position: 148.75/13th round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 3,536 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 96 rushing yards

Jamal Lewis, RB, Cleveland

Lewis won't be as bad as Shaun Alexander in 2006 or Ahman Green last year, but those are recent examples of aging running backs who get paid and then falter. In 2007, Lewis re-emerged as a starting Fantasy option in his first year with the Browns, rushing for 1,304 yards and nine touchdowns and catching 30 passes for 248 yards and two touchdowns. He got a three-year contract extension, which means he loses the motivation of playing for money. He also will be 29 when the season starts and has seven full seasons in the NFL, which typically is when a running back starts to slow down, especially someone with his running style. That said, he plays behind a great offensive line with tremendous talent around him, so Lewis won't totally falter this year. But if you're counting on Lewis to be a starting Fantasy option, you're going to be disappointed. He will end up as a top reserve or possibly worse.

Average draft position: 26.29/3rd round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 304 carries, 1,178 yards, seven touchdowns, 21 catches, 166 yards

Brandon Marshall, WR, Denver

Talk about a bad offseason, Marshall went from a Fantasy darling to a potential Fantasy dud. He severed an artery in his arm and had some off-field troubles that led to a suspension to start the season. Even when he returns to the field, he's going to find it hard to live up to last year's performance of 102 catches, 1,325 yards and seven touchdowns. The Broncos passing game could also take a hit with no legitimate No. 2 receiver opposite Marshall, and tight end Tony Scheffler still dealing with foot problems. Marshall is entering his third year, which is typically when receivers have a breakout season, but this could be a year when Marshall regresses based on what happened last year. If you can get Marshall as a No. 3 Fantasy option, then you are in good shape. Anything more than that is a risk.

Average draft position: 50.57/5th round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 81 catches, 1,068 yards, seven touchdowns

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh

Big Ben had a career year in 2007 with 32 touchdown passes and 34 total touchdowns with his rushing scores. It's doubtful he'll reach 30 touchdowns again this year since his previous career high was 18. The Steelers drafted running back Rashard Mendenhall to improve their rushing in the red zone, which would mean less passing touchdowns for Roethlisberger. He's still a candidate for about 25 total touchdowns, and he should be a solid No. 1 Fantasy option. But don't overestimate Big Ben's value and draft him ahead of Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer or Derek Anderson. Roethlisberger also doesn't throw for many yards with no 300-yard passing games in his last 23.

Average draft position: 42.49/3rd round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 3,302 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 167 rushing yards, two touchdowns

LenDale White, RB, Tennessee

White had a breakthrough season last year with 1,110 rushing yards and seven touchdowns and was on track to be a quality starting option this season. But then the Titans spent a first-round pick on Chris Johnson, who will take reps away from White, along with second-year back Chris Henry. White also has a nagging knee injury, which could linger into training camp. He could still be a good source of touchdowns, but his yardage will decline with the acquisition of Johnson. White has now fallen to a No. 3 Fantasy option, but he might be better used as a fourth running back. If he proves viable early in the year, start him off your bench. But if he falters as expected, then your team will struggle if White is penciled in as a starter.

Average draft position: 67.36/6th round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 1,068 rushing yards, seven touchdowns, 12 catches, 70 yards

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