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Jamey Eisenberg

A Fantasy read on the Carolina Panthers

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Last year started off great for Carolina quarterback Jake Delhomme. He was on pace for a career season and one of the best years in NFL history before hurting his elbow.

In the three games Delhomme started in 2007, he passed for 624 yards, eight touchdowns and one interception. Project that over a full season, and Delhomme would have passed for 3,339 yards, 43 touchdowns and five interceptions. He would have finished second to New England's Tom Brady (50) in touchdown passes.

But we'll never know if Delhomme would have reached such heights because the elbow injury ended his season. He needed Tommy John surgery and is trying to make a comeback.

Heading into training camp, Delhomme appears in good shape. He has done well in the offseason with his rehab and is on schedule to start the season.

But Fantasy owners are going to be skeptical with Delhomme this year after what happened in 2007, and for good reason. It's unknown if his arm will rebound to the same form or if he will suffer a setback. Delhomme is also 33 and could start to see a decline in his production even if he was healthy.

Delhomme, however, does have plenty of positive aspects heading into 2008. He plays with one of the best receivers in the NFL in Steve Smith, who saw his stats steeply decline when Delhomme was injured. Smith is excited Delhomme is back.

The Panthers also revamped the receiving corps, adding D.J. Hackett and Muhsin Muhammad as free agents. Along with the development of second-year receiver Dwayne Jarrett and tight end Jeff King, Delhomme has more weapons than ever before in his five seasons as Carolina's starter.

And the Panthers enhanced the offensive line with rookie tackle Jeff Otah and improved the running game with rookie Jonathan Stewart. If Stewart is as good as advertised, Delhomme should have plenty of success with his play-action passing.

Delhomme could be one of the best sleepers in 2008. He will be drafted as a No. 2 Fantasy option, but if his elbow holds up and he returns to form, he'll be starting in all leagues before the year is over.

Positives: His receiving corps could be the best in the NFL. Delhomme has an elite player in Smith and solid complementary options in Hackett, Muhammad and Jarrett. That will help Delhomme's overall play since now opposing defenses can't just focus on Smith. When healthy, Delhomme has been a quality quarterback. He averaged 3,333 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and 15 interceptions from 2003-06.

Negatives: The elbow. He had Tommy John surgery last season and is still not 100 percent. He will also be on a "pitch count" in training camp to limit the number of passes he attempts. He is expected to be fine for the start of the season, but the unknown will scare Fantasy owners. He also doesn't run much since he has only three rushing touchdowns with the Panthers.

Outlook: Take Delhomme as one of the first backup Fantasy options. The uncertainty with his elbow makes him a risky starting option, but if he returns to form with the revamped receiving corps, he has the chance to shine. Look for Delhomme to pass for about 3,500 yards, 25 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 2008.

Position battle: No. 1 running back

Jonathan Stewart
Pro: The Panthers drafted Stewart in the first round of the NFL Draft for a reason. He is the type of running back coach John Fox covets because he's big, fast and runs with authority. Look for Stewart to get yards and touchdowns, and he has the chance to finish the season as the No. 1 rookie running back.
Con: He has been slowed this offseason because of a toe injury, which could leave him as a reserve to start the season. If he struggles with blitz protection, he might not see the field as much as expected.
DeAngelo Williams
Pro: Williams has been waiting for an opportunity to start after sitting behind DeShaun Foster the past two seasons. Williams is a speed back, which could help him break long runs. He has good hands, so even if he's the third-down back, he will still make plays.
Con: Williams couldn't beat out Foster the past two seasons even though Foster struggled. The Panthers are ready to get back to smash-mouth football, which favors Stewart. Williams will get touches, but Stewart will see the majority of carries.
Prediction: Stewart starts and is worth drafting as a low-end No. 2 Fantasy option. But Williams will also be a solid Fantasy running back as a No. 3 option. Look for Stewart to surprise many Fantasy owners, and he compares favorably to former Carolina power runner Stephen Davis.

Position battle: No. 2 wide receiver

Muhsin Muhammad
Muhammad is returning to Carolina, where he spent the first nine years of his career. He had the best season of his career in 2004 with the Panthers when he had 93 catches for 1,405 yards and 16 touchdowns. He will do well in this offense again with Delhomme and playing opposite Smith. During minicamp, Muhammad was the starter.
Con: He will be 35 this season and was terrible last year with Chicago. He has only 12 touchdowns in his past three seasons. He's a good possession receiver at this point in his career, but he will likely have trouble finding the end zone.
D.J. Hackett
Pro:Hackett was told he'd be the No. 2 receiver when he signed with the Panthers. In six games last year with Seattle, Hackett had 32 catches for 384 yards and three touchdowns. Project that for a full season, and Hackett would have had 85 catches for 1,024 yards and eight touchdowns. If he can do that opposite Smith then he would shine this year.
Con: He's injury prone, having never finished a full season in four years. He's already been hurt this offseason with a knee problem. In minicamp, Hackett has been the No. 3 option behind Muhammad.
Prediction: Muhammad might win the No. 2 job, but Hackett is the better Fantasy option. Look for both to see plenty of action, and Hackett will likely miss some time with injuries, but Hackett has more upside. Consider both receivers with late-round picks in all leagues.
 
 
 
Player News
Rashard Mendenhall
PUP list in Mendenhall's future
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
2:15 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Mendenhall tore his right ACL in Week 17 of last season; recovery time for such injuries is anywhere from nine months to a year.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He'll likely get the first crack at starting in place of Mendenhall. There's still a lot of time between now and the regular season, but for now it's probably safe to expect Mendenhall to not be at even close to 100 percent to start the year, which will absolutely impact his Fantasy value. By August, you might be drafting Mendenhall as a middle- to late-round sleeper you'll have to sit on for a while. We'll keep you posted on Mendenhall as best as we can.

Randy Moss
Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
10:10 AM
News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to." NFL Network reports that teams have already been calling his agent following the news.
Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Calvin Johnson
Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
9:39 AM
News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.
Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

DeSean Jackson
Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
9:36 AM
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.
Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Isaac Redman
Redman in line to start for Steelers?
Isaac Redman, RB, PIT
2:23 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. That would open the door for Isaac Redman to be the starting rusher entering training camp.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He's also stepped up while working with Mendenhall and without him, though his one other start in 2011 was a flop (61 total yards, no touchdowns vs. Tennessee). By August we might recommend drafting Redman with a pick in Round 6 or 7 as a good early-season starting option with potential to be a quality Fantasy choice for the entire season. We'll see how the Steelers' run game shakes out.

Steve Slaton
Slaton, Dolphins likely parting ways
Steve Slaton, RB, MIA
12:56 PM
News: The Palm Beach Post reports that RB Steve Slaton is not expected to return to the Dolphins in 2012. Slaton played in three games this season with zero starts after being picked up on waivers before Week 4. He had 17 carries for 64 yards (3.8 average) with one touchdown and a long of 28 and also returned three kickoffs for 85 yards. Slaton was signed as insurance early in the season when both Reggie Bush (groin) and Daniel Thomas (hamstring) battled injuries.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Slaton plays in 2012, but he likely has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in all leagues on Draft Day.

Doug Baldwin
Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
11:14 AM
News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”
Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Hines Ward
Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
9:53 AM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on the future of Hines Ward. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported previously that if the Steelers did decide to release Ward, he was unaware of it. NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report. Ward's 2012 salary is high and he's expected to at least take a significant pay cut, if not get released altogether. Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Josh Morgan
Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
9:49 AM
News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

Jeremy Shockey
Panthers could bring back Shockey
Jeremy Shockey, TE, CAR
9:46 AM
News: The Charlotte Observer considers re-signing free agent TE Jeremy Shockey a "high priority" this offseason. Shockey was the No. 2 TE for the Panthers behind Greg Olsen, and he had a productive season when he caught 37 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns and missed only one game to injury.
Analysis: Though not the same receiver he was a decade ago, Shockey still is a dependable target, particularly in the red zone. If his asking price is too high, Panthers could turn to Gary Barnidge, who was having a great 2011 camp before breaking his ankle. Keep an eye on what happens with Shockey, and if he returns to the Panthers as expected he would be a No. 2 Fantasy TE on Draft Day worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

 
 
 
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