It took one knee injury, one turnover in the playoffs, one offseason surgery and one off-the-field incident to turn Marvin Harrison from a rock-solid No. 1 Fantasy receiver into an extremely risky draft pick.
After eight consecutive seasons of at least 1,100 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns per, Harrison's 2008 was already off to an ominous start (17 catches, 231 yards, one score) when he bruised his left knee vs. Denver in Week 4 and didn't finish the game. He gutted out one more regular-season game (Week 7 at Jacksonville) but didn't see the field again for the rest of the year. Harrison had a serious issue with his left bursa (a fluid-filled sac that acts as a buffer between muscle and bone), one that the Colts were mum on. Speculation ranged from an inflammation to an outright burst of the sac.
The Colts had designs on saving Harrison for the postseason, and in their home game vs. San Diego, he suited up. After catching his first pass, a 17-yard dart, he fumbled inside the Chargers' red zone and cost Indy a chance to build a lead in a game they would eventually lose. Harrison ended the game with two catches for 27 yards and was thrown at just three times. He said after the game that he knew the team was better off without him in the lineup when they went on their final drive.
Harrison continued to make waves this offseason when he had arthroscopic surgery on his right knee while rehabbing his left knee. Early indications were that Harrison would be questionable for training camp but likely to be ready for the start of the regular season (Harrison has told teammates and coaches that he will be ready).
But further clouding Harrison's status is a shooting incident outside of a bar he owns in Philadelphia allegedly involving a gun he owns. Harrison claims he wasn't involved, but local district attorneys are still investigating the case. While he hasn't been called a suspect, Harrison might be charged with multiple misdemeanors.
Once a guy you'd draft and never remove from your starting lineup, Harrison's Fantasy value has become cloudy at best. Between his physical health, his personal problems and the reality that he will be 36 years old when the season starts, there's a lot to consider.
Positives: There's no doubting Harrison's track record. When he's on his game, he can deliver some outstanding numbers. It's also a huge plus that he's catching passes from Peyton Manning and working alongside Reggie Wayne, which means that if he's playing, the ball is coming at him perfectly and the coverage isn't swarming. And while Harrison's legs may be ailing him, there's no doubt that his hands remain exceptional. It's also worth noting that when the Colts had the opportunity to spend a high draft pick on a wide receiver in April, they went elsewhere.
Negatives: Aren't they obvious? His knees have deteriorated, thus making him highly unlikely to participate in 16 games. If his bursa sac has indeed burst, there's no surgery that can completely heal his condition. And if the investigation surrounding him ends badly, Harrison might actually be suspended for violating the NFL's Personal Conduct Policy. His age isn't entirely a negative since other great receivers have played well into their late 30s (Jerry Rice comes to mind), but getting old is still a negative against all of us.
Outlook: No matter how you slice it, Harrison is a very risky draft pick because we're not clear on what to expect from him, both in participation and production. In this case, a safe approach is the best approach: If Harrison is available between Rounds 6 and 8, pick him up with the idea that he'll be your No. 3 wide receiver. If he plays at the level we're accustomed to seeing, your team will be better for it. If he's so-so, then you're drafting him at about the right spot. If he tanks, then your initial investment in him isn't too steep. Lastly, don't be afraid to pass entirely on him and take a more reliable receiver -- until we know more about Harrison, he's going to be an enigma.
Position battle: No. 2 running back
 | Dominic Rhodes
Pro: Rhodes was welcomed back to Indianapolis with open arms after signing a free-agent contract with Oakland a year ago. His playing time was limited with the Raiders but he still managed to average 4.0 yards per carry and has a career average of 4.1 yards per rush.
Con: Rhodes may have done well last year, but in his last two years with Indy, he averaged 3.3 yards per carry, including 3.4 yards per on 187 rushes while sharing with Joseph Addai when he was a rookie. Rhodes is also not an explosive back -- he has four rushes for 20 or more yards in his last five seasons. |
 | Kenton Keith
Pro: Keith was Rhodes' fill-in last season with the Colts, coming in after a mildly successful career in the Canadian Football League. Whether he was giving Addai a breather or starting for him, he played pretty well, averaging 4.4 yards per carry. In one start last year, Keith had 158 total yards and two touchdowns.
Con: Keith was arrested this offseason, charged with misdemeanor counts of disorderly conduct, resisting law enforcement, public intoxication and contributing to the delinquency of a minor. About two weeks after the arrest, the Colts re-signed Rhodes. That's about as bad of a 'con' as you can get. | | Prediction: Rhodes' familiarity with the Indy offense and coaches will give him a significant edge despite Keith's success last season. Unless Rhodes has an awful training camp, expect him to be the reliable handcuff for Addai in drafts this summer. Rookie Mike Hart might even push Keith off the Colts' roster. | |
