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Jamey Eisenberg

Draft prep: Potential breakouts for 2008

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Here's what I learned about the definition of the term "breakout." It's something on the verge of a significant increase. It's slang for a prison escape or acne. In acting, it's when a marginal character becomes a main character based on audience support.

In Fantasy Football, a breakout player is someone you might have heard of but is now ready to shine. A player who might have been drafted in the past but will now become a definite starter and possibly a star.

Last year, some breakout players were Roddy White, LenDale White, Wes Welker, Jason Witten, Derek Anderson and Tony Romo. They went from relative obscurity to helping many Fantasy owners into the playoffs last year.

This year, we'll try to help you find those players with our own breakout list. Some of these players have changed teams or offensive coordinators or are just getting an opportunity after sitting on the bench. Others started to show last year that they are ready to take off and become a star.

While all of these players won't necessarily become Fantasy standouts, there's a good possibility their value will improve from last year. The hope is that these breakouts will help your Fantasy team and not turn into acne.

All average draft positions and projections as of July 24, 2008

Nate Burleson, WR, Seattle

Burleson has been a surprise Fantasy option twice in his career. In 2004, Burleson had 68 catches for 1,006 yards and nine touchdowns. Then last year, he caught 50 passes for 694 yards and nine touchdowns. This season, with Deion Branch trying to recover from a torn ACL, and Bobby Engram dealing with a contract situation, Burleson could be the Seahawks best receiver. He wasn't worth drafting in Fantasy leagues last year, but this year Burleson has the chance to start in some leagues. If he can build off last year, which is something we expect him to do, then he could end up as a No. 2 Fantasy option.
Average draft position: 106.6/8th round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 752 receiving yards, six touchdowns

Eli Manning should look in the direction of Kevin Boss plenty in 2008. (US Presswire)  
Eli Manning should look in the direction of Kevin Boss plenty in 2008. (US Presswire)  
Kevin Boss, TE, N.Y. Giants

The Giants did Fantasy owners a favor by trading Jeremy Shockey to New Orleans. That not only helped Shockey's Fantasy value, but it made Boss into a low-end No. 1 Fantasy option. Boss played well when Shockey broke his leg last year, and the Giants like to throw to the tight end a lot, especially near the red zone. Look for Boss to be a decent source of receptions and emerge as one of the Giants best players in 2008. He's one of the few Giants with upside this year.
Average draft position: N/A undrafted
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 464 receiving yards, four touchdowns

Owen Daniels, TE, Houston

If Daniels can get a full season from Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub then he has the chance to be one of the top tight ends in the NFL. Schaub can get Daniels the ball, and Johnson will draw plenty of coverage. Daniels is a solid target in the red zone and has the potential for 75 catches and 900 yards. But the key is having healthy players around him with talent. Plan on drafting Daniels as a low-end No. 1 option, but don't be surprised when he ends the year among the elite tight ends.
Average draft position: 130.84/10th round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 594 receiving yards, five touchdowns

Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco

Davis should have been a breakout player last year but again dealt with injuries and poor quarterback play. This year, with the addition of offensive coordinator Mike Martz, Davis should finally become a star. Martz has never had a tight end of Davis' caliber, but he will use Davis more like a wide receiver. If Alex Smith or Shaun Hill know what's good for them, they will throw to Davis as much as possible. He should emerge as top-five Fantasy tight end this season.
Average draft position: 83.95/6th round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 733 receiving yards, six touchdowns

Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit

Johnson had a frustrating rookie season last year when he suffered a back injury that lingered all season. He finished with 48 catches for 756 yards and four touchdowns, but he will shatter those stats this year. Johnson has said 1,200 yards is within reach, and he is capable of reaching double digits in touchdowns. Go into the season with Johnson as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver, but he should finish the year as a solid No. 2 option. The Lions won't throw the ball as much this season, but Johnson will still get enough opportunities to make plays.
Average draft position: 67.67/5th round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 859 receiving yards, seven touchdowns

Jabar Gaffney, WR, New England

Gaffney outplayed Donte Stallworth last year and emerged as the Patriots No. 3 receiver. This year, the job is his to lose, although Chad Jackson will fight for the spot, but Gaffney will see more time on the field. That means he could be in line for a career season. With Tom Brady throwing him the ball, and with defenses focusing on Randy Moss and Wes Welker, Gaffney should thrive. He will be drafted as a No. 4 Fantasy option but should finish as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver or flex player.
Average draft position: 151.97/12th round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 532 receiving yards, five touchdowns

Santonio Holmes, WR, Pittsburgh

Holmes was a starting Fantasy receiver for many owners last year, so it's hard to call him a breakout. But this year should be his best one yet, and he will emerge as an elite Fantasy option. This is Holmes' third season in the NFL, which is typically the year receivers have a breakout. And Holmes has plenty of upside, especially with Hines Ward starting to decline in production. Holmes is being drafted as a No. 3 Fantasy option, but he will finish the year as a potential top 12 receiver. It all comes down to Ben Roethlisberger continuing to look in Holmes' direction.
Average draft position: 57.46/4th round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 904 receiving yards, six touchdowns

Bryant Johnson, WR, San Francisco

Johnson has been stuck behind Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona, but now he goes to the 49ers, where he should benefit playing under offensive coordinator Mike Martz. He's also playing for a contract after signing a one-year deal. Martz has made Fantasy darlings out of no-names like Shaun McDonald, Mike Furrey and Az-Zahir Hakim. Look for Martz to help Johnson as well. The quarterback situation is a concern in San Francisco, but whoever starts will make Johnson a No. 3 or even No. 2 Fantasy option by the end of the year.
Average draft position: 143.68/11th round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 795 receiving yards, three touchdowns

Laurence Maroney, RB, New England

Maroney is an easy choice as a breakout player based on his playoff performance. If he can stay healthy and teams defend the Patriots passing game as expected, then Maroney should end up as a starting Fantasy running back. He's being drafted as a No. 3 option, but Fantasy owners should take Maroney as a No. 2 running back. He will get his first 1,000 yard season this year and should find the end zone enough times to make him worth a second-round pick.
Average draft position: 34.86/3rd round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 1,062 rushing yards, seven touchdowns, 14 catches, 133 receiving yards

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay

If Rodgers can get past the Brett Favre fiasco this offseason then he has a chance to be a successful starting quarterback. The talent surrounding Rodgers is incredible with Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones and Donald Lee, the running game should thrive and the offensive line is solid. All Rodgers has to do is not make too many mistakes and stay healthy, which has been a concern when he was a backup. Rodgers should be drafted as a No. 2 Fantasy option, but the talent around him could elevate him to a starter by the end of the year.
Average draft position: 121.71/10th round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 3,695 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 114 rushing yards

Matt Schaub, QB, Houston

Schaub was on his way to a breakout season last year before a shoulder injury and concussions ruined his 2007 season. It also didn't help that he lost star receiver Andre Johnson for most of the year. Johnson should be fine for the start of the season, and if Schaub can stay healthy, he has the chance to emerge as a starting Fantasy option. He has good weapons around him and the talent to pass for plenty of yards and touchdowns, which is what Fantasy owners want. Draft Schaub as a No. 2 option, but don't be surprised if he ends the season as your No. 1 quarterback.
Average draft position: 132.16/11th round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 3,478 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 53 rushing yards

Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta

Turner has done well as LaDainian Tomlinson's backup in San Diego the past four seasons, and now he gets the chance to start. The Falcons have said he will lose some carries to Jerious Norwood, but Turner should still get about 20 touches a game. He also is a capable receiver out of the backfield, which should help with a rookie quarterback in Matt Ryan. Plan on using Turner as a No. 3 Fantasy option with the chance to start most weeks if he can live up to the hype.
Average draft position: 47.38/4th round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 1,122 rushing yards, five touchdowns, 20 catches, 150 receiving yards

Selvin Young, RB, Denver

When last season ended, Broncos coach Mike Shanahan said Young was only going to get about 15 touches a game. Then Shanahan released Travis Henry, which elevated Young into the starting role. He will still share carries with Michael Pittman and rookie Ryan Torain, but Young has now emerged as solid Fantasy option. You should draft Young as a No. 3 running back, but he could start for you early on. He has the chance to rush for 1,000 yards, and if he can find the end zone on a regular basis, his Fantasy value will rise.
Average draft position: 67.12/5th round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 1,061 rushing yards, four touchdowns, 18 catches, 128 receiving yards

Do you have a Draft Prep question? Send your thoughts to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and we'll get to as many as we can. Be sure to put Attn: Draft Prep in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
Randy Moss
Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
10:10 AM
News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to."
Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Calvin Johnson
Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
9:39 AM
News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.
Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

DeSean Jackson
Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
9:36 AM
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.
Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Doug Baldwin
Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
11:14 AM
News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”
Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Hines Ward
Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
9:53 AM
News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that if the Steelers have decided to release WR Hines Ward he is unaware of it. The NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012. However, a source close to Ward said no one from the Steelers has indicated to him the team plans to release him. Ward, who could not be reached for comment, issued a statement on his Facebook page after the NFL Network report that said, "I don't normally like to respond to rumors, but as I've said all along, I want to finish my career with the Pittsburgh Steelers. And as I've already told the organization, I am willing to work with them to restructure my contract to make sure this happens.'' Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Josh Morgan
Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
9:49 AM
News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

Jeremy Shockey
Panthers could bring back Shockey
Jeremy Shockey, TE, CAR
9:46 AM
News: The Charlotte Observer considers re-signing free agent TE Jeremy Shockey a "high priority" this offseason. Shockey was the No. 2 TE for the Panthers behind Greg Olsen, and he had a productive season when he caught 37 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns and missed only one game to injury.
Analysis: Though not the same receiver he was a decade ago, Shockey still is a dependable target, particularly in the red zone. If his asking price is too high, Panthers could turn to Gary Barnidge, who was having a great 2011 camp before breaking his ankle. Keep an eye on what happens with Shockey, and if he returns to the Panthers as expected he would be a No. 2 Fantasy TE on Draft Day worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

Benjamin Watson
Watson over concussions
Benjamin Watson, TE, CLE
9:43 AM
News: The Boston Herald reports that Browns TE Benjamin Watson, who was placed on season-ending injured reserve in Cleveland in December due to concussion problems, said he was doing fine, had no lingering effects, and was ready to move forward and prepare to tackle his ninth season in 2012. Watson played in 13 games, and suffered three concussions, including in the preseason. After the third, which occurred against Pittsburgh in Week 14, doctors decided it would be best for him to shut it down. “I’m great. Three or four days after the last incident, I felt normal. I past all my cognitive tests. I didn’t have any headaches. I didn’t have any nausea. I didn’t have any dizziness,” he said. “With three games left, they just erred on the side of caution and decided to end the season for me. You hate for that to happen, but that’s why the doctors are in place. As far as lingering symptoms, I didn’t have anything. I know some guys have headaches for weeks. That wasn’t my scenario, thankfully. So hopefully, it was just a bad luck year.”
Analysis: Watson hopes to remain with the Browns in 2012 in what will be a contract year. He will likely compete with Evan Moore for playing time, but Watson has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Ignore him in most formats on Draft Day.

Richard Seymour
Seymour gets bonus from Raiders
Richard Seymour, DT, OAK
2/12/2012
News: The Oakland Raiders have paid DL Richard Seymour his $7.5 million roster bonus, ensuring he'll stay with the Raiders next season. The Raiders could have released Seymour and his massive contract, but chose instead to keep him and not make wholesale changes to the roster.
Analysis: The 32-year-old Seymour played in all 16 games for the Raiders in 2011 as he recorded 29 tackles and six sacks. His six sacks were his highest total since notching eight in 2008 for New England. Seymour is just a low-end option when it comes to IDP formats in Fantasy play.

Rey Maualuga
Maualuga charged by police
Rey Maualuga, MLB, CIN
2/11/2012
News: Bengals LB Rey Maualuga has officially been charged by Cincinnati police with misdemeanor assault stemming from a bar fight last weekend. This report comes from The Associated Press. The Bengals had no comment.
Analysis: Maualuga is likely to be at least fined for this incident, especially after his 2010 DUI arrest cost him two game checks. He won't miss any playing time, though. Maualuga is just a low-end option in IDP formats heading into next season.

 
 
 
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