The Fantasy owner who drafted Adrian Peterson in their draft last year is still smiling. Peterson was a rookie who lived up to the hype.
Peterson, who was drafted in the fourth round of most leagues last year according to his Average Draft Position on CBSSports.com, finished as the No. 3 overall running back in a standard-scoring format. He was easily the best Fantasy rookie.
Some other top rookies from last year's class include Marshawn Lynch, Dwayne Bowe and Anthony Gonzalez. In 2006, rookies who made an impact in Fantasy leagues were Vince Young, Reggie Bush, Maurice Jones-Drew and Marques Colston.
You can look back over every year and find several top rookies. But now the question Fantasy owners want to know is what rookies will shine this year? Who will be the next Peterson, Lynch, Jones-Drew or Colston?
We'll point out rookies who will make an impact this year but also some players to target in rookie-only drafts for future consideration. You know about Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart and James Hardy, but you also might want to consider Chris Johnson, Ryan Torain and Donnie Avery.
Those could be some rookies who make you smile when the season is over.
All average draft positions and projections as of July 28, 2008
Quarterbacks
Joe Flacco, Baltimore
Flacco will compete with Troy Smith and Kyle Boller for the starting job, but even if he wins the battle, Flacco doesn't have much Fantasy value this year. He should not be drafted in seasonal leagues, but in rookie-only drafts consider Flacco with a high second-round/late first-round pick. Eventually he will turn into a good quarterback, but his Fantasy impact is minimal this season.
Average draft position: N/A not drafted
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 516 passing yards, three touchdowns, four interceptions
Chad Henne, Miami
The Dolphins are hoping Henne will be their quarterback of the future, but now with Chad Pennington on board, his time will have to wait. Henne has minimal Fantasy value as a rookie because the Dolphins have little talent on offense. But if the Bill Parcells rebuilding project goes as expected, Henne could develop into a decent Fantasy option if he sees the field in '08. This year, avoid him in seasonal leagues and take him with a second-round pick in rookie-only drafts.
Average draft position: N/A not drafted
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 732 passing yards, five touchdowns, three interceptions
Matt Ryan, Atlanta
Ryan should finish as the best rookie quarterback. He is expected to start ahead of Chris Redman and Joey Harrington, and even though the Falcons are going to struggle on offense, his stats will look better than the rest of his quarterback class. In deep seasonal leagues, Ryan could be a worth a late-round pick as a No. 2 Fantasy option. In rookie-only drafts, Ryan is a solid first-round pick.
Average draft position: 162.29/13th round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 1,976 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, 13 interceptions
Running backs
Jamaal Charles, Kansas City
Larry Johnson is the starter for the Chiefs, but Charles and Kolby Smith will compete for the backup job. Charles has more upside and could eventually replace Johnson as the starter in the next couple of years. Keep an eye on who wins the job between Charles and Smith because that will determine if Charles is worth using as the handcuff to Johnson. Regardless, take Charles with a late-round pick in deep seasonal formats and with a second-round choice in rookie-only drafts.
Average draft position: 165.91/14th round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 241 rushing yards, one touchdown, nine catches, 75 receiving yards
Matt Forte, Chicago
The Bears gave Forte the starting job this year when they released Cedric Benson. Look for Forte to be one of top rookies this year, and he should be drafted in seasonal leagues as a No. 3 Fantasy running back with plenty of upside. He will lose some carries to Kevin Jones if he's healthy, but Forte will still be Chicago's best rusher. In rookie-only drafts, Forte is a first-round pick.
Average draft position: 71.22/6th round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 889 rushing yards, four touchdowns, 31 catches, 222 receiving yards
Jacob Hester, San Diego
Now that Michael Turner is the starting running back in Atlanta, the Chargers are in need of a backup for LaDainian Tomlinson. Hester is expected to battle incumbent Darren Sproles for the job. Sproles has the inside track, but Hester could prove the better option in training camp. If that happens, Hester immediately becomes a late-round pick in seasonal leagues. If not, then leave Hester alone, but in rookie-only drafts, take Hester in the third round.
Average draft position: N/A not drafted
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 110 rushing yards, 24 catches, 155 receiving yards, one touchdown
Chris Johnson, Tennessee
Johnson has the chance to be a solid sleeper this year. He was drafted in the first round based on his speed, and the Titans will use him as a change-of-pace back and receiver in tandem with LenDale White. Plan on drafting Johnson with a mid-round pick in seasonal leagues and with a first-round pick in rookie-only drafts. If he turns into a Reggie Bush-type player, which he is capable of, then you have a great option on your Fantasy team.
Average draft position: 120.91/11th round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 399 rushing yards, one touchdown, 30 catches, 296 receiving yards, two touchdowns
Felix Jones, Dallas
Felix Jones will take over for the departed Julius Jones and play in tandem with Marion Barber. Look for Felix Jones to get about 10-15 touches a game, but if Barber falters as an every-down back, Jones could pick up the slack. There's a chance fellow rookie Tashard Choice gets a few carries also, but Jones is worth using as a handcuff to Barber. Take Jones with a middle-round pick in seasonal leagues and a first-round pick in rookie-only drafts.
Average draft position: 114.51/9th round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 649 rushing yards, three touchdowns, 21 catches, 120 receiving yards
Darren McFadden, Oakland
McFadden comes into his rookie year with a lot of hype based on what he did in college. The Raiders plan to involve McFadden a lot, which means running, catching and possibly throwing the ball. He will lose some carries to Justin Fargas and Michael Bush, but McFadden will be among the elite rookies this year. He's worth a high draft pick in all leagues based on his talent.
Average draft position: 39.86/4th round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 1,024 rushing yards, four touchdowns, 29 catches, 232 receiving yards, one touchdown
Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh
The Steelers drafted Mendenhall in the first round of the 2008 NFL Draft hoping he could improve their rushing attack in the red zone. Mendenhall will serve as the No. 2 option behind Willie Parker, but Parker has failed to score touchdowns on a regular basis. Don't draft Mendenhall ahead of Parker in seasonal leagues. But take Mendenhall with a middle-round selection, and in rookie-only drafts, Mendenhall is a first-round pick. You can count on Mendenhall to be productive this season.
Average draft position: 94.46/8th round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 686 rushing yards, five touchdowns, 14 catches, 114 receiving yards
Ray Rice, Baltimore
Rice is penciled in as the No. 2 running back in Baltimore behind Willis McGahee, and the Ravens like Rice's potential. He will likely get a few carries each game to spell McGahee, which means Rice is worth drafting with a mid-round pick in seasonal leagues, and could start in Week 1 with McGahee still recovering from knee surgery. In rookie-only drafts, take Rice with a high second-round pick. It's hard to imagine Rice as the future starter in Baltimore, but if he is, then you have a steal in the draft.
Average draft position: 159.74/14th round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 190 rushing yards, two touchdowns, 23 catches, 152 receiving yards, one touchdown
Steve Slaton, Houston
The Texans have a need for running backs with Ahman Green's injury history and Chris Brown a short-term answer. Slaton might not get much playing time as a rookie, but he could eventually start for the Texans as early as next year. Take Slaton with a late-round pick in seasonal leagues, and in rookie-only drafts consider him a second-round pick. Hopefully he will get significant playing time this year, but that might not happen.
Average draft position: 164.22/14th round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 320 rushing yards, one touchdown, five catches, 31 receiving yards
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Don't be surprised if Carolina's Jonathan Stewart is this year's Fantasy rookie stud.
(AP)
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Kevin Smith, Detroit The Lions are going from a pass-happy team to a run-oriented offense, which means Smith could be a great Fantasy option. He will battle
Tatum Bell for the starting job, but Smith should end up as the starter. The Lions running style should suit Smith, who ran for more than 2,000 yards as a senior at Central Florida. Draft Smith with a middle-round pick in seasonal leagues, and he will make an impact in Fantasy leagues this year. In rookie-only drafts, Smith is a first-round selection.
Average draft position: 76.31/7th round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 985 rushing yards, five touchdowns, 13 catches, 97 receiving yards
Jonathan Stewart, Carolina
Stewart is my choice as the top rookie this year. The Panthers want to return to a power running attack, and Stewart will lead the way. He has to beat out DeAngelo Williams for the starting job and prove he's over the toe injury, but Stewart should lead all rookies in touchdowns and possibly rushing yards. Plan on drafting Stewart with a high draft pick in all leagues, and he should be a solid No. 3 Fantasy running back to start the year.
Average draft position: 56.29/5th round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 994 rushing yards, seven touchdowns, 12 catches, 85 receiving yards
Ryan Torain, Denver
Torain came into 2008 with plenty of potential, but he suffered an elbow injury, which could keep him out for the beginning of the season and possibly longer. Still, he is worth drafting with a late-round pick in seasonal leagues because coach Mike Shanahan has compared Torain to former MVP Terrell Davis. In rookie-only drafts take Torain with a third-round pick and hope he can return sooner rather than later.
Average draft position: 136.16/11th round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 687 rushing yards, three touchdowns, six catches, 25 receiving yards
Wide receivers
Donnie Avery, St. Louis
The Rams took Avery in the second round as the first wide receiver in the draft. He has plenty of speed, which should help on the turf in St. Louis. The Rams need help at receiver, so Avery could play right away. Consider him with a late-round pick in seasonal leagues and a second-round pick in rookie-only drafts.
Average draft position: N/A not drafted
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 25 catches, 342 receiving yards, two touchdowns
Earl Bennett, Chicago
The Bears need help at wide receiver, with Marty Booker and Brandon Lloyd the starting options currently on the depth chart. Bennett could easily become a starter this year, which makes him a decent flier with a late-round pick. If the Chicago passing game can improve, then Bennett's Fantasy value could rise. In rookie-only drafts, take Bennett with a late second-round pick.
Average draft position: N/A not drafted
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 39 catches, 483 receiving yards, three touchdowns
James Hardy, Buffalo
Hardy should finish as the top Fantasy rookie receiver. If the Bills passing game were better, Hardy would be an instant impact player. Still, he should be a decent source of touchdowns because of his size (6-foot-5). Plan on drafting Hardy with a late-round pick in seasonal leagues and a first-round pick in rookie-only drafts. He could be this year's Marques Colston if quarterback Trent Edwards gets him the ball.
Average draft position: 130.77/11th round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 52 catches, 649 receiving yards, five touchdowns
Malcolm Kelly, Washington
Kelly, like fellow rookie Devin Thomas, suffered an injury early in training camp. Kelly's knee is expected to be fine for the start of the season. The Redskins will use Kelly as a third or fourth receiver, which limits his Fantasy value in seasonal leagues, but in rookie-only drafts he should be taken in the third round. Kelly could eventually blossom into a decent Fantasy option.
Average draft position: N/A not drafted
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 21 catches, 241 receiving yards, one touchdown
DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia
The Eagles need help at wide receiver, but Jackson's biggest impact will likely come on special teams in the return game. Jackson will see time at receiver also, but he won't make a huge Fantasy impact as a rookie. You can ignore him in seasonal leagues, but in rookie drafts take him with a third-round pick. If Jackson can get extended time on offense, then his Fantasy value will rise.
Average draft position: N/A not drafted
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 39 catches, 597 receiving yards, two touchdowns
Dexter Jackson, Tampa Bay
The Bucs drafted Jackson to play on returns and not as a receiver. Coach Jon Gruden said they will involve Jackson on offense in special packages, but Tampa Bay's passing game won't help Jackson's Fantasy value. You can ignore him in seasonal leagues, and he might not be worth drafting in rookie-only drafts either because of the lack of playing time he'll get on offense.
Average draft position: N/A not drafted
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 21 catches, 271 receiving yards, one touchdown
Mario Manningham, New York Giants
The Giants are planning for the future with Manningham, who will likely be the No. 4 wide receiver on the depth chart behind Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer and Steve Smith. You can ignore Manningham in seasonal leagues, and he might not be worth drafting in rookie-only drafts either because of the lack of playing time he'll get on offense.
Average draft position: N/A not drafted
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 13 catches, 165 receiving yards
Jordy Nelson, Green Bay
The Packers always draft with an eye on the future, especially on offense, and Nelson could be a possible replacement for free agent-to-be Donald Driver. Nelson will compete with James Jones for the third receiver role, but Nelson will probably start on the bench. You can ignore him in seasonal leagues, but Nelson is worth taking with a third-round pick in rookie-only drafts.
Average draft position: N/A not drafted
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 27 catches, 337 receiving yards, two touchdowns
Eddie Royal, Denver
Royal could be an interesting rookie to monitor because the Broncos need help at receiver after Brandon Marshall, and now Marshall is suspended for at least the first two games of the season. Royal will compete for the starting spot opposite Marshall, and if he wins the job then he's worth a late-round pick in seasonal leagues. In rookie-only drafts, take Royal with a third-round pick.
Average draft position: N/A not drafted
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 17 catches, 264 receiving yards, one touchdown
Jerome Simpson, Cincinnati
The Bengals are going to use Simpson or Andre Caldwell as the No. 3 option behind Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. But whoever wins the job won't have as much success as Chris Henry did in the past because the Bengals will use tight end Ben Utecht more this year. Still, Simpson could be worth a third-round pick in rookie-only drafts, but he should be ignored in all seasonal formats.
Average draft position: N/A not drafted
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 24 catches, 293 receiving yards, one touchdown
Limas Sweed, Pittsburgh
Sweed could be the eventual replacement for Hines Ward, but this season he will compete with Nate Washington to be the No. 3 receiver for the Steelers. Look for Sweed to win the job, and he could emerge as a solid rookie receiver. He's still not worth drafting in seasonal leagues because the Steelers will count on Ward, Santonio Holmes and Heath Miller as the top three options in the passing game, but Sweed is a solid second-round pick in rookie-only drafts.
Average draft position: N/A not drafted
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 19 catches, 235 receiving yards, two touchdowns
Devin Thomas, Washington
Thomas was going to compete for a starting spot for the Redskins with Antwaan Randle El, but Thomas hurt his hamstring early in training camp. He is expected to be fine for the start of the season. You could still take a flier on Thomas in seasonal leagues, but the safe option is to leave him on the waiver wire. In rookie-only drafts, take Thomas with a third-round pick following the injury.
Average draft position: N/A not drafted
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 32 catches, 405 receiving yards, three touchdowns
Tight ends
John Carlson, Seattle
Since the Seahawks are in need of help at receiver, Carlson could step in right away and make an impact for Fantasy owners. Seattle also uses the tight end quite a bit, which will benefit Carlson as a rookie. You can draft Carlson as a low-end No. 1 Fantasy option in deep leagues, and he should go as a second-round pick in rookie-only drafts.
Average draft position: 165.32/14th round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 27 catches, 354 receiving yards, four touchdowns
Fred Davis, Washington
The Redskins will use Davis in two tight-end sets with Chris Cooley, which means Davis will see some passes in his direction. He's not worth drafting in seasonal leagues because of Cooley, but he could be worth a third-round pick in rookie-only drafts. Davis' best value this year might be in the red zone.
Average draft position: N/A not drafted
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 18 catches, 216 receiving yards, one touchdown
Dustin Keller, New York Jets
The Jets could make Keller into an elite Fantasy option now that Brett Favre is the starter in New York. Keller could see plenty of passes in his direction, so plan on drafting him as a low-end No. 1 Fantasy option in deep leagues and with a second-round pick in rookie-only drafts.
Average draft position: 166.61/14th round
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 35 catches, 402 receiving yards, three touchdowns
Other rookies to watch: Tashard Choice, RB, Dallas; Tim Hightower, RB, Arizona; Andre Caldwell, WR, Cincinnati; Adrian Arrington, WR, New Orleans; Early Doucet, WR, Arizona; Martellus Bennett, TE, Dallas; Brandon Coutu, K, Seattle; Taylor Mehlhaff, K, New Orleans
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