Editor's note: This is a series of 10 predictions of things that will happen in 2008 Fantasy Football leagues according to Senior Fantasy Writer Jamey Eisenberg
Everyone wants to get this year's Adrian Peterson, the hot rookie running back who will become a Fantasy star.
And no one wants to get this year's Cedric Benson, who sat out most of his rookie season in 2005 despite being a high draft pick.
When it comes to drafting rookie running backs, you want a player who is going to be on the field a lot and make an impact. Marshawn Lynch turned into a stud last year, while Chris Henry sat behind LenDale White and Chris Brown, and Brandon Jackson failed to impress as a starter, thus losing his job.
This year, every Fantasy owner wants to get Darren McFadden. He has Peterson's ability to make plays, and like Peterson last year, was the first running back drafted in the 2008 NFL Draft.
But McFadden won't turn into Peterson. At least not right away.
McFadden has a ton of upside because of his size, breakaway speed, ability to catch passes and even throw a few. Eventually he will become a Fantasy star, maybe even this year.
Just don't count on McFadden finishing as the best rookie running back in 2008. That honor should belong to Jonathan Stewart, and it wouldn't be surprising if Kevin Smith or Matt Forte also finish with better stats than McFadden.
McFadden is playing with the Raiders, who managed to finish No. 6 in rushing offense last year with Justin Fargas, LaMont Jordan and Dominic Rhodes leading the way. They didn't need McFadden, although he will improve the offense.
|
|
|
All signs point to Matt Forte getting plenty of carries in Chicago this season.
(US Presswire)
|
|
Fargas re-signed as a free agent, and
Michael Bush is healthy after sitting out his rookie year with a broken leg, which means McFadden is part of a crowded backfield. Peterson only had
Chester Taylor to contend with, and the Raiders offensive line is far from as polished as what Peterson had in Minnesota.
The expected scenario in Oakland is Fargas will start while Bush is a candidate to be the short-yardage back. McFadden will get plenty of playing time and could be used like Reggie Bush. After all, Oakland coach Lane Kiffin was an assistant coach at Southern California when Bush was used in tandem with White, so Kiffin will get McFadden plenty of touches in different ways.
McFadden should be drafted as a No. 3 Fantasy running back, and it seems like most owners are paying attention. As of now his Average Draft Position on CBSSports.com is about No. 40 overall, which puts him in the fourth round, which is a great spot for him.
But McFadden is being drafted ahead of Stewart (about No. 57 overall right now, according to his ADP), and that's a mistake unless you're drafting in a keeper league. Long-term McFadden has more upside, but this year should favor Stewart. He has the chance to start for Carolina, and the Panthers plan to use Stewart as a power runner like they had with Stephen Davis in 2003. That means yards and touchdowns for Stewart.
He will share carries with DeAngelo Williams, but Williams has proven he is not a quality starter in the NFL. Stewart's only drawback is a toe injury coming into training camp, but it appears he is past any problems and ready to go.
And along with Stewart, Smith and Forte could finish ahead of McFadden, although that would be a stretch. But both running backs have a better scenario to succeed compared to McFadden.
For Smith, going to Detroit was a blessing for Fantasy owners. He has the chance to beat out Tatum Bell and start as a rookie, and if the Lions offensive line improves as expected, Smith could easily find success as a No. 2 Fantasy option.
Forte got the break he was looking for when the Bears released Benson this offseason. Forte is expected to share carries with newly-acquired Kevin Jones, but Jones is trying to work his way back from last year's torn ACL, which should allow Forte to dominate the amount of carries.
Don't draft Smith (about 78 overall) and Forte (about No. 73 overall) ahead of McFadden, but don't be surprised if their Fantasy production is higher. And Stewart should be the best of the bunch.
McFadden is going to be the stud everyone expects following his successful college career. But his promise won't be fulfilled this year, and he won't shine as bright as some of the other rookie running backs in 2008.
Do you have a Draft Prep question? Send your thoughts to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and we'll get to as many as we can. Be sure to put Attn: Draft Prep in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.
