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Jamey Eisenberg

Draft prep: Can Martz and O'Sullivan produce?

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Editor's note: This is a series of 10 predictions of things that will happen in 2008 Fantasy Football leagues according to Senior Fantasy Writer Jamey Eisenberg

We all know how successful Mike Martz has been for Fantasy owners. He created the "Greatest Show on Turf" in St. Louis and then made viable options out of rubbish in Detroit.

Now he's off to San Francisco, where his goal is to turn around one of the worst offenses in the NFL. The 49ers were last in eight offensive categories in 2007.

But let Martz get his hands on things, and the creative offensive coordinator should make some fun happen. He might even unearth some new Fantasy options for your team.

This is, after all, the same guy who turned Shaun McDonald, Mike Furrey and Az-Zahir Hakim into useful Fantasy starters during his career. Imagine what he can do with Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, Bryant Johnson -- or even new starting quarterback J.T. O'Sullivan?

With Gore, Martz has one of the best running backs in the NFL. Gore struggled in 2007 with 1,102 rushing yards and five touchdowns and 53 catches for 436 yards and one touchdown. But as bad as that was for Gore, he still managed to finish as a Top 12 Fantasy running back in standard-scoring leagues.

Under Martz, Gore should return to prominence like in 2006 when he rushed for 1,695 yards and eight touchdowns and caught 61 passes for 485 yards and a touchdown. Martz thinks Gore can do better than that, especially as a receiver.

"We use him everywhere we can in the running game, of course, and in the passing game we'll use him everywhere possible -- as a deep threat, as a short threat, as a crossing threat," Martz said to the San Francisco media. "Watching him out there, he's really comfortable with himself, and we've got to be careful not to overload him and take away from what he's there for and what he does really well, which is running the football. We'll create some scenarios for him."

Vernon Davis has the talent, but thus far he has disappointed in two seasons. (US Presswire)  
Vernon Davis has the talent, but thus far he has disappointed in two seasons. (US Presswire)  
Gore has returned to a No. 1 pick in all Fantasy leagues, and he is being drafted No. 8 overall, according to this average draft position on CBSSports.com. If Gore can turn into a running back the caliber of Marshall Faulk, which is something Martz is hoping for, then Gore could emerge as the best running back in the NFL.

Davis also has the talent to be the best tight end. Last year, Davis finished with 52 catches for 509 yards and four touchdowns.

They were good stats for his position, but Davis wants to be an elite player, like Antonio Gates, Kellen Winslow, Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez. Fantasy owners want the same thing, and Martz should make it happen.

Don't worry that Martz has never utilized a tight end in his offense. In fact, Ernie Conwell was the most productive tight end Martz ever had as an offensive coordinator or head coach when Conwell had 38 catches in 2001.

But Martz will use Davis as a receiver and take advantage of his skills. His average draft position is about No. 83 overall, which makes him the seventh tight end drafted behind Witten, Gates, Winslow, Chris Cooley, Gonzalez and Dallas Clark. But Davis should finish among the top five of this group with Martz.

"What we'll do with him is try to take advantage of his speed," Martz said. "And then, maybe like they've done in the past, we'll try and get him down the field and, more or less like a wide receiver, move him out and move him around. At first it was so different for him, but he's really adapted very well to it."

At receiver, Johnson and Isaac Bruce are worth drafting in all leagues, and maybe even Arnaz Battle. Johnson has been stuck behind Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona, but now he has the chance to shine in San Francisco. Rookie Josh Morgan from Virginia Tech has been impressive this preseason (9 catches, 182 yards and a TD) and is worth monitoring early on as well.

Johnson will be drafted as a No. 4 Fantasy option, but he could finish the year as a No. 2 Fantasy wide receiver. He is being drafted at about No. 143 overall, according to his average draft position.

O'Sullivan's 2008 Fantasy Projections
Comp. Att. Yards TDs INTs
201 337 2326 14 12
Complete running back projections

Bruce, who played under Martz in St. Louis, is getting older at 36, but being reunited with Martz should rejuvenate his career. He should be drafted as a No. 4 option with the chance to see his value rise to No. 3 status. His average draft position is about No. 151.

Martz said having Bruce on the field is a benefit because of his knowledge of the offense.

"There's some things that he can do that he's not going to be able to teach anybody else," Martz said. "He's just Isaac, that's Isaac, and he understands that, too. When we go through our individual (drills), just the nature of our routes and how he gets out of it, just the demonstration is probably the most significant part if it."

Then there are the quarterbacks, who have a lot to prove to Fantasy owners. Alex Smith has been a disappointment in three seasons, especially after hurting his shoulder last year. Shaun Hill played well at the end of last year, but neither quarterback impressed Martz enough in training camp to win the job. When asked if he could compare either quarterback to any he has worked with in the past, all Martz did was shake his head.

You're not going to draft Smith or Hill in any leagues this year, but O'Sullivan is worth a late-round flier. After all, if Martz could turn Jon Kitna into a starting Fantasy option, he can work wonders with a journeyman like O'Sullivan, who was a sixth-round draft pick for New Orleans in 2002 and has played for seven other NFL teams. He has thrown just 26 regular-season passes in his career, all coming last year in Detroit.

It was in Detroit with Martz where O'Sullivan learned the new San Francisco offensive system, which helped propel O'Sullivan ahead of Smith and Hill. He showed off his knowledge in the third preseason game against Chicago when he finished 7-of-8 passing for 126 yards and a touchdown in just over one quarter of action, compiling a perfect quarterback rating of 158.3. Through three preseason games, O'Sullivan is 20-of-33 for 351 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions.

If you've followed Martz's career, he tends to be unique when it comes to offense and personnel, and sometimes those players end up being great Fantasy options. It could happen again this year with O'Sullivan looking like a younger version of Jeff Garcia by season's end.

Do you have a Draft Prep question? Send your thoughts to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and we'll get to as many as we can. Be sure to put Attn: Draft Prep in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
Rashard Mendenhall
PUP list in Mendenhall's future
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
2:15 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Mendenhall tore his right ACL in Week 17 of last season; recovery time for such injuries is anywhere from nine months to a year.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He'll likely get the first crack at starting in place of Mendenhall. There's still a lot of time between now and the regular season, but for now it's probably safe to expect Mendenhall to not be at even close to 100 percent to start the year, which will absolutely impact his Fantasy value. By August, you might be drafting Mendenhall as a middle- to late-round sleeper you'll have to sit on for a while. We'll keep you posted on Mendenhall as best as we can.

Randy Moss
Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
10:10 AM
News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to." NFL Network reports that teams have already been calling his agent following the news.
Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Calvin Johnson
Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
9:39 AM
News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.
Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

DeSean Jackson
Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
9:36 AM
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.
Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Isaac Redman
Redman in line to start for Steelers?
Isaac Redman, RB, PIT
2:23 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. That would open the door for Isaac Redman to be the starting rusher entering training camp.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He's also stepped up while working with Mendenhall and without him, though his one other start in 2011 was a flop (61 total yards, no touchdowns vs. Tennessee). By August we might recommend drafting Redman with a pick in Round 6 or 7 as a good early-season starting option with potential to be a quality Fantasy choice for the entire season. We'll see how the Steelers' run game shakes out.

Steve Slaton
Slaton, Dolphins likely parting ways
Steve Slaton, RB, MIA
12:56 PM
News: The Palm Beach Post reports that RB Steve Slaton is not expected to return to the Dolphins in 2012. Slaton played in three games this season with zero starts after being picked up on waivers before Week 4. He had 17 carries for 64 yards (3.8 average) with one touchdown and a long of 28 and also returned three kickoffs for 85 yards. Slaton was signed as insurance early in the season when both Reggie Bush (groin) and Daniel Thomas (hamstring) battled injuries.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Slaton plays in 2012, but he likely has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in all leagues on Draft Day.

Doug Baldwin
Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
11:14 AM
News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”
Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Hines Ward
Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
9:53 AM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on the future of Hines Ward. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported previously that if the Steelers did decide to release Ward, he was unaware of it. NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report. Ward's 2012 salary is high and he's expected to at least take a significant pay cut, if not get released altogether. Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Josh Morgan
Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
9:49 AM
News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

Jeremy Shockey
Panthers could bring back Shockey
Jeremy Shockey, TE, CAR
9:46 AM
News: The Charlotte Observer considers re-signing free agent TE Jeremy Shockey a "high priority" this offseason. Shockey was the No. 2 TE for the Panthers behind Greg Olsen, and he had a productive season when he caught 37 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns and missed only one game to injury.
Analysis: Though not the same receiver he was a decade ago, Shockey still is a dependable target, particularly in the red zone. If his asking price is too high, Panthers could turn to Gary Barnidge, who was having a great 2011 camp before breaking his ankle. Keep an eye on what happens with Shockey, and if he returns to the Panthers as expected he would be a No. 2 Fantasy TE on Draft Day worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

 
 
 
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