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Dave Richard

A Fantasy read on the Jacksonville Jaguars

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


What an interesting 12 months it's been for Jaguars quarterback David Garrard. After the 2007 preseason, the team released veteran signal caller Byron Leftwich and put the starting job in Garrard's hands. All Garrard did was lead the club to an 11-5 record and a playoff win at Pittsburgh before succumbing to New England. Along the way, he ended the season on the cusp of being a startable Fantasy option.

Garrard's passing stats were fairly pedestrian -- 2,509 passing yards and 18 touchdowns -- but his lack of turnovers (three interceptions, two fumbles) kept his Fantasy value palatable. Moreover, his rushing totals of 185 yards and a score -- slim by his previous totals -- helped push his overall production past that of guys like Philip Rivers and Jeff Garcia.

There were some encouraging signs from Garrard coming out of 2007. He played very well in his first year under center, topping 200 yards seven times. He also completed a career-best 64 percent of his passes for a career-best 7.72 yards per attempt -- just more than half a yard higher than in limited play in 2006 and over a full yard higher than in limited play in 2005. About the only thing not to like about Garrard's first year as a starter was that he missed three games due to a high-ankle sprain (he was rested in Week 17, missing a total of four games).

Garrard doesn't have to worry about a quarterback competition in Jaguars camp this summer. In fact, his biggest "problem" is getting used to the improved receiving corps Jacksonville snared this offseason. Perennial Fantasy sleepers Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson are now Jaguars, joining Reggie Williams and Dennis Northcutt and a couple of young second-year guys in John Broussard and Mike Walker in the club's receiving corps. While there may not be a superstar in the group, at least Garrard has some incredible depth with lots of receivers with different skill sets. The additions of Porter and Williamson were made to help Jacksonville become a better passing team, which is nothing but good news for Garrard.

It's no surprise that after the 2007 season, the Jaguars rewarded Garrard with a six-year, $67.5 million contract. Suffice to say, he earned it.

Positives: Garrard is a smart, polished passer with excellent mobility and a "good enough" arm. His new receivers should boost his passing yards and touchdowns. While it's hard to expect him to keep up his ability to not turn the ball over, Garrard shouldn't go Joey Harrington on you. Plus, it helps that Garrard will run for a handful of yards and is always a threat to score a touchdown on the ground inside the 10 yard line.

Negatives: No matter how good of a quarterback Garrard becomes, the Jaguars will be a run-first team so long as Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew are healthy. And speaking of health, Garrard has never played in more than 12 games over the course of a season, meaning that if you draft him, you better have another quarterback to go with him.

Outlook: Considering that his stats have trended up over the last three seasons, the writing is on the wall that he could turn into a nice stat producer for Fantasy fanatics in 2008. The injury history is a concern, but Garrard has too much upside to ignore. He's a top-end No. 2 Fantasy quarterback and is good enough to platoon as a starter in deeper leagues.

Position battle: No. 2 wide receiver

Dennis Northcutt
Pro: A polished slot receiver with good speed for a guy who will be 31 years old this season, Northcutt went from a fairly obscure role in Cleveland to a key component to the Jaguars' offense in 2007. He totaled four touchdowns -- his most since 2002 -- with 44 catches for 601 yards -- most since 2004.
Con: He's the old man on the totem pole in Jacksonville and has never been a candidate for a 1,000-yard season, something everyone else in this competition has had the potential to do. His role could be reduced thanks to the influx of new talent.
Reggie Williams
Pro: Williams finally landed on the Fantasy radar after three weak seasons, totaling 629 yards and 10 touchdowns while being a solid deep-ball receiver for Jacksonville. Williams has always had the potential to be good thanks to his impressive size and speed.
Con: Before last year, Williams had five touchdowns in three seasons while averaging 443.0 yards per. Annually, he was referred to as a potential sleeper who fizzled out. It's also unlikely that he'll match the 16.6 yards per catch average he had last year.
Troy Williamson
Pro: There isn't a lot to like about Williamson, but there's no denying his speed. He's also been open to improving his abilities, having eye surgery last offseason and working on his coordination this offseason. A change of scenery and a reunion with coach Mike Tice (who drafted him in Minnesota in 2005) should do some good.
Con: For a former Top-10 draft pick, Williamson has been abysmal. With 79 catches and three touchdowns over three seasons, he's grossly underperformed. Along the way he's had nagging hamstring injuries and a really bad case of the dropsies. Jacksonville might have brought him in just for situational work on offense and special-teams play.
Prediction: Jacksonville might have a hard time keeping all of these players, so it's worth keeping track of who they hang on to. All of these players have their strengths and weaknesses, and none of these players are close to being "do-it-all" receivers. Northcutt has the best chance to lead the way in receptions, but Williams is probably the safer Fantasy bet thanks to his newfound nose for the end zone. None of these players are worth drafting with anything more than a late-round flier.
 
 
 
Player News
Rashard Mendenhall
PUP list in Mendenhall's future
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
2:15 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Mendenhall tore his right ACL in Week 17 of last season; recovery time for such injuries is anywhere from nine months to a year.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He'll likely get the first crack at starting in place of Mendenhall. There's still a lot of time between now and the regular season, but for now it's probably safe to expect Mendenhall to not be at even close to 100 percent to start the year, which will absolutely impact his Fantasy value. By August, you might be drafting Mendenhall as a middle- to late-round sleeper you'll have to sit on for a while. We'll keep you posted on Mendenhall as best as we can.

Randy Moss
Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
10:10 AM
News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to." NFL Network reports that teams have already been calling his agent following the news.
Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Calvin Johnson
Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
9:39 AM
News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.
Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

DeSean Jackson
Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
9:36 AM
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.
Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Isaac Redman
Redman in line to start for Steelers?
Isaac Redman, RB, PIT
2:23 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. That would open the door for Isaac Redman to be the starting rusher entering training camp.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He's also stepped up while working with Mendenhall and without him, though his one other start in 2011 was a flop (61 total yards, no touchdowns vs. Tennessee). By August we might recommend drafting Redman with a pick in Round 6 or 7 as a good early-season starting option with potential to be a quality Fantasy choice for the entire season. We'll see how the Steelers' run game shakes out.

Steve Slaton
Slaton, Dolphins likely parting ways
Steve Slaton, RB, MIA
12:56 PM
News: The Palm Beach Post reports that RB Steve Slaton is not expected to return to the Dolphins in 2012. Slaton played in three games this season with zero starts after being picked up on waivers before Week 4. He had 17 carries for 64 yards (3.8 average) with one touchdown and a long of 28 and also returned three kickoffs for 85 yards. Slaton was signed as insurance early in the season when both Reggie Bush (groin) and Daniel Thomas (hamstring) battled injuries.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Slaton plays in 2012, but he likely has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in all leagues on Draft Day.

Doug Baldwin
Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
11:14 AM
News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”
Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Hines Ward
Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
9:53 AM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on the future of Hines Ward. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported previously that if the Steelers did decide to release Ward, he was unaware of it. NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report. Ward's 2012 salary is high and he's expected to at least take a significant pay cut, if not get released altogether. Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Josh Morgan
Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
9:49 AM
News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

Jeremy Shockey
Panthers could bring back Shockey
Jeremy Shockey, TE, CAR
9:46 AM
News: The Charlotte Observer considers re-signing free agent TE Jeremy Shockey a "high priority" this offseason. Shockey was the No. 2 TE for the Panthers behind Greg Olsen, and he had a productive season when he caught 37 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns and missed only one game to injury.
Analysis: Though not the same receiver he was a decade ago, Shockey still is a dependable target, particularly in the red zone. If his asking price is too high, Panthers could turn to Gary Barnidge, who was having a great 2011 camp before breaking his ankle. Keep an eye on what happens with Shockey, and if he returns to the Panthers as expected he would be a No. 2 Fantasy TE on Draft Day worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

 
 
 
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