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A Fantasy read on the Jacksonville Jaguars

 
 
 
 

What an interesting 12 months it's been for Jaguars quarterback David Garrard. After the 2007 preseason, the team released veteran signal caller Byron Leftwich and put the starting job in Garrard's hands. All Garrard did was lead the club to an 11-5 record and a playoff win at Pittsburgh before succumbing to New England. Along the way, he ended the season on the cusp of being a startable Fantasy option.

Garrard's passing stats were fairly pedestrian -- 2,509 passing yards and 18 touchdowns -- but his lack of turnovers (three interceptions, two fumbles) kept his Fantasy value palatable. Moreover, his rushing totals of 185 yards and a score -- slim by his previous totals -- helped push his overall production past that of guys like Philip Rivers and Jeff Garcia.

There were some encouraging signs from Garrard coming out of 2007. He played very well in his first year under center, topping 200 yards seven times. He also completed a career-best 64 percent of his passes for a career-best 7.72 yards per attempt -- just more than half a yard higher than in limited play in 2006 and over a full yard higher than in limited play in 2005. About the only thing not to like about Garrard's first year as a starter was that he missed three games due to a high-ankle sprain (he was rested in Week 17, missing a total of four games).

Garrard doesn't have to worry about a quarterback competition in Jaguars camp this summer. In fact, his biggest "problem" is getting used to the improved receiving corps Jacksonville snared this offseason. Perennial Fantasy sleepers Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson are now Jaguars, joining Reggie Williams and Dennis Northcutt and a couple of young second-year guys in John Broussard and Mike Walker in the club's receiving corps. While there may not be a superstar in the group, at least Garrard has some incredible depth with lots of receivers with different skill sets. The additions of Porter and Williamson were made to help Jacksonville become a better passing team, which is nothing but good news for Garrard.

It's no surprise that after the 2007 season, the Jaguars rewarded Garrard with a six-year, $67.5 million contract. Suffice to say, he earned it.

Positives: Garrard is a smart, polished passer with excellent mobility and a "good enough" arm. His new receivers should boost his passing yards and touchdowns. While it's hard to expect him to keep up his ability to not turn the ball over, Garrard shouldn't go Joey Harrington on you. Plus, it helps that Garrard will run for a handful of yards and is always a threat to score a touchdown on the ground inside the 10 yard line.

Negatives: No matter how good of a quarterback Garrard becomes, the Jaguars will be a run-first team so long as Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew are healthy. And speaking of health, Garrard has never played in more than 12 games over the course of a season, meaning that if you draft him, you better have another quarterback to go with him.

Outlook: Considering that his stats have trended up over the last three seasons, the writing is on the wall that he could turn into a nice stat producer for Fantasy fanatics in 2008. The injury history is a concern, but Garrard has too much upside to ignore. He's a top-end No. 2 Fantasy quarterback and is good enough to platoon as a starter in deeper leagues.

Position battle: No. 2 wide receiver

Dennis Northcutt
Pro: A polished slot receiver with good speed for a guy who will be 31 years old this season, Northcutt went from a fairly obscure role in Cleveland to a key component to the Jaguars' offense in 2007. He totaled four touchdowns -- his most since 2002 -- with 44 catches for 601 yards -- most since 2004.
Con: He's the old man on the totem pole in Jacksonville and has never been a candidate for a 1,000-yard season, something everyone else in this competition has had the potential to do. His role could be reduced thanks to the influx of new talent.
Reggie Williams
Pro: Williams finally landed on the Fantasy radar after three weak seasons, totaling 629 yards and 10 touchdowns while being a solid deep-ball receiver for Jacksonville. Williams has always had the potential to be good thanks to his impressive size and speed.
Con: Before last year, Williams had five touchdowns in three seasons while averaging 443.0 yards per. Annually, he was referred to as a potential sleeper who fizzled out. It's also unlikely that he'll match the 16.6 yards per catch average he had last year.
Troy Williamson
Pro: There isn't a lot to like about Williamson, but there's no denying his speed. He's also been open to improving his abilities, having eye surgery last offseason and working on his coordination this offseason. A change of scenery and a reunion with coach Mike Tice (who drafted him in Minnesota in 2005) should do some good.
Con: For a former Top-10 draft pick, Williamson has been abysmal. With 79 catches and three touchdowns over three seasons, he's grossly underperformed. Along the way he's had nagging hamstring injuries and a really bad case of the dropsies. Jacksonville might have brought him in just for situational work on offense and special-teams play.
Prediction: Jacksonville might have a hard time keeping all of these players, so it's worth keeping track of who they hang on to. All of these players have their strengths and weaknesses, and none of these players are close to being "do-it-all" receivers. Northcutt has the best chance to lead the way in receptions, but Williams is probably the safer Fantasy bet thanks to his newfound nose for the end zone. None of these players are worth drafting with anything more than a late-round flier.
 
 
 
 
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