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Dave Richard

A Fantasy read on the Denver Broncos

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Broncos coach Mike Shanahan is at it again.

Like he has done previously with Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Reuben Droughns, Tatum Bell and Mike Bell, the offensive guru is tabbing a nobody-turned-somebody to run the ball for Denver (Clinton Portis doesn't count -- we knew he'd be good). This time, it's second-year running back Selvin Young, who signed with Denver as an undrafted free agent last spring, as the Broncos' starting running back in 2008. Young figures to be the best fit to run in Denver's zone-blocking scheme after getting 729 yards on a mere 140 carries (a 5.2 avg.) in 2007, adding 231 yards on 35 grabs.

The precedent for Young is high: Last year was the first time since 2001 that the Broncos didn't have a 1,000-yard running back. Considering how quickly he grasped Denver's running style last year, chances are he'll be the next 1,000-yard back in the Mile High City.

That is, if the other runners on the roster stay out of his way. And again, knowing Mike Shanahan, that's going to be an issue. Veteran Michael Pittman, fifth-round rookie Ryan Torain and second-year speedster Andre Hall (who was undrafted) will jockey for position behind Young in camp.

Shanahan has been known to change his mind on who his running back will be, so Young's status isn't a lead-pipe lock, though it helps that Shanahan has said publicly that Young is the Broncos' main workhorse. Shanahan has also said previously that Young isn't capable of toting the ball more than 15 times per game, though he did top that mark four times last year (with two 100-yard games in those four). Young will have to not only be effective with the ball but also not fumble in order for Shanahan to stay with him.

As always, the Denver backfield is a popular spot for Fantasy owners to focus on, but as it's been for most of the time since Portis was moved to Washington, nothing is ever certain.

Positives: Young has a good year of work under his belt in Denver and knows the Broncos' running attack like the back of his hand. Young also has excellent speed and good hands -- he had eight runs of 20 or more yards in '07 and a pair of 20-plus yard receptions -- so he's a versatile back. With Shanahan naming him the starter earlier this offseason, and with the club dumping veteran Travis Henry, Young has a lot to be confident about and shouldn't feel much pressure to perform during the preseason.

Negatives: Size, durability and endurance are issues. Young is not built to smack between the tackles, he missed a game last year with a knee sprain, and he went from a 6.4 yards per carry average in the first halves of games to a 3.6 average in the second halves of games. But the biggest drawback to owning Young is that because he's not a physical runner, he's not a candidate to play at the goal line. Young scored one touchdown in 2007 -- a 20-yard run at Kansas City. Denver's pass attack and the other runners on board will cut into Young's touches.

Outlook: The good news is that Young should be considered a mortal lock for a few touchdowns and 1,000 rush yards -- we see him getting a smidge more than that -- but anything more would be unexpected. With Pittman to take third-down duties and Torain to potentially get into the mix in a number of roles (he fits in really well with the Denver offense), the club doesn't have a stud running back you can count on for huge Fantasy totals. But Young is the closest you can get. Think of him as a No. 3 running back worth a pick between Rounds 5 and 6.

Position battle: No. 2 running back

Michael Pittman
Pro: A late arrival to Denver this offseason, the 11-year veteran is expected to handle third-down duties, which he is definitely cut out for. Pittman is a versatile, physical running back who is adept at pass blocking.
Con: Age is beginning to catch up with Pittman, who experienced a downswing in his stats both rushing and receiving last season with Tampa Bay. Furthermore, Pittman hasn't had a big touchdown campaign since 2004 when he was the Bucs' starting running back. Touches will be tough to come by in Denver's crowded backfield.
Ryan Torain
Pro: A rookie, Torain is familiar with and able to run effectively in the Broncos' running style thanks to his days of running in it while at Arizona State. He proved to be a physical back there and totaled 12 touchdowns in 14 starts (19 games) with five more scores through the air.
Con: Torain suffered the dreaded Lisfranc sprain in his senior season and is on the comeback trail from it. He also has a history of sprained ankles dating back to his sophomore year at school. Torain also doesn't have a lot of burst or acceleration (4.71 in the 40-yard dash at the combine), likely limiting his long runs.
Prediction: Training camp will sort out what the roles will be, but Torain has a shot at starting the season as a goal-line back and eventually working his way into a feature role if starter Young is ineffective. Drafting for upside is the way to go here; think of Torain as a solid middle- to late-round pick while Pittman is more of a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

Position battle: No. 2 wide receiver

Keary Colbert
Pro: Out of the proverbial doghouse in Carolina, Colbert has a shot at starting over in Denver. In 2004-05, Colbert missed one game and amassed seven touchdowns.
Con: In 2006-07, Colbert made 11 starts and had no touchdowns. He was nowhere near a threat for defenses to worry about in Carolina, and the Broncos hope they can revive his career.
Darrell Jackson
Pro: A nine-year veteran, Jackson has been as good as a No. 1 Fantasy receiver in his career, notching a trio of 1,000-yard seasons. He also has 50 career scores including 10 in 2006.
Con: Jackson has a knee condition that limits his speed and durability -- he's missed 14 games over the last three seasons. Additionally, Jackson's yardage and touchdowns were diminished in his first and only year with the 49ers (497 yards, 10.8 avg., three TDs).
Brandon Stokley
Pro: Stokley finished second on the team in receiving yards with 635 last year with five touchdowns as he developed into a favorite target of Jay Cutler's from the slot.
Con: Stokley's '07 was his second-best year statistically, including six of his nine seasons without even 500 yards or more than two touchdowns. A knee injury limited his play last season as well.
Prediction: Jackson seems to be the most likely candidate to rack up the most stats, but chances are that Denver will experiment all preseason with who should play opposite Brandon Marshall. None of the above players are worth anything more than a late-round pick in deeper leagues.
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Player News
Kellen Winslow
Winslow a 'rotational player?'
Kellen Winslow, TE, SEA
5/25/2012
News: Kellen Winslow became a Seahawk recently, and he's spoken highly of his new team. But it remains how they'll use him and how often they'll use him. According to SiriusXM NFL Radio, a league personnel executive believes that Winslow's best days are behind him. "We talked to the Bucs before the draft and talked about (Winslow) further internally," said the source. "We just didn't think he could be more than a rotational player at this point (in his career) after examining his tape and performance."
Analysis: Winslow had 75 receptions for 763 yards and two TDs in 2011 and has caught at least 66 passes in each of his last three years while not missing a game. There is definitely a perception that he's old and over the hill, which his receiving average (10.2 yards per catch last year) supports. And he joins a crowded tight end corps in Seattle, but should be a fairly regular player in the offense. Problem is, he hasn't been productive enough to be considered reliable for Fantasy use week after week. He's fine as a No. 2 Fantasy TE worth a late pick, but don't expect him to put up huge numbers.

Jamaal Charles
Charles to rest until camp
Jamaal Charles, RB, KC
5/25/2012
News: The Kansas City Star reports that the Chiefs will rest running back Jamaal Charles until training camp in late July. He is not expected to participate in their minicamp as he continues to rehab and work his way back from a torn ACL suffered last September. Head coach Romeo Crennel hopes Charles will be cleared in time for camp.
Analysis: Charles has been vocal about being ready for the season, calling himself hungry and passionate to return to form. But the fact remains that he's coming off of a major injury and isn't promised to have any of the explosiveness he had before he got hurt. Tack on the Chiefs' addition of Peyton Hillis (Charles thinks Hillis will get the tough yards and goal-line work like Thomas Jones was supposed to previously), and there's a limit to Charles' 2012 expectations. So long as Charles proves that he's ready to roll, Fantasy owners should be optimistic. Assuming he's fine, Charles will be worth taking in the early rounds on Draft Day, but more as a No. 2 Fantasy RB. Plan on drafting Charles between 25th and 35th overall in all leagues.

Hakeem Nicks
Source: Nicks could return before camp
Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG
5/25/2012
News: ESPN reports that a source familiar with the broken bone in Hakeem Nicks' foot says the receiver might miss four-to-six weeks recovering from the injury and not the 12-week timeframe the Giants said on Thursday. Nicks fractured the fifth metatarsal of his right foot during an OTA practice. The team is hoping to have him back at some point during training camp and the preseason.
Analysis: Unless the diagnosis on Nicks' foot changes, we're not believers that he'll be ready in six weeks and thus long before the start of training camp. Nicks' teammate, Prince Amukamara, took 15 weeks before he was comfortable practicing last year according to the Newark Star-Ledger and he had the same injury. Nicks has had all sorts of issues with hamstrings, knees and his feet over the years. So long as he is healthy for the start of the season and gets some work in camp and a preseason game or two, the injury is more of a reminder that he's injury prone and less of a factor on his 2012 season. We'll see if this lasts into late August and the regular season; for now expect his stock to slip in drafts. He'll be a Round 3-4 choice as a low-end No. 1/high-end No. 2 Fantasy receiver.

Ben Roethlisberger
Roethlisberger admits to issues with new playbook
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT
5/25/2012
News: Ben Roethlisberger's transition to new offensive coordinator Todd Haley's playbook is not going as smoothly as Steelers fans had hoped. Roethlisberger said Thursday that so far it's been "frustrating at times" but that he's going to put in "extra work" to understand what Haley wants him to do. "I think coach (Haley) really wants to challenge us," Big Ben said on a radio interview, per the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. "Me, maybe, in particular, I think he felt like I was real comfortable with the old offense, which ... I don't know why that's a bad thing. But I'm not the head coach."
Analysis: There's all sorts of talk that Haley wants Roethlisberger to stay in the pocket to avoid excess hits and that Haley wants to run the ball more. We're not sure how this is going to play out, but we do think there's a chance Roethlisberger could attempt a ton of passes given that Rashard Mendenhall is out and Isaac Redman, while talented, might not be a 20-touch back from week to week. Much of the offense might fall on Roethlisberger's shoulders. We consider Big Ben a low-end No. 1 Fantasy QB in all leagues well worth a mid-round pick.

Sam Bradford
Bradford's ankle 'getting there'
Sam Bradford, QB, STL
5/25/2012
News: Rams quarterback Sam Bradford said his left ankle, injured in October at Green Bay, is nearly 100 percent. "It's getting there," he said. "It feels better every week -- less soreness, more things I can do. It's definitely on the right track."
Analysis: There's no questioning his arm as several Rams receivers, including their rookies, have been in awe over his passing skills. Bradford is continuing to learn the Rams' new offense and says it's close to the West Coast offense he ran two season ago. But with a so-so offensive line and an unproven receiving corps, now's not the time to call Bradford a breakout candidate. He should have some good games, but no one should consider him either a Fantasy starter or a blue chip prospect. For now we're resigned to calling him a late-round pick as a good, not great, No. 2 quarterback.

Matt Hasselbeck
Titans' Palmer breaks down QB battle
Matt Hasselbeck, QB, TEN
5/25/2012
News: It's no secret that the Titans will have a competition for the starting quarterback job between veteran Matt Hasselbeck and second-year gunslinger Jake Locker. What remains to be seen is when they'll name a starter. Offensive coordinator Chris Palmer told the media Thursday that the job is up for grabs, that no preseason starts have been promised and that the coaching staff will pick a winner based on who can lead the team to wins, starting in Week 1 against the Patriots. Palmer said that while Locker's mobility is very appealing, Hasselbeck's experience and body of work from last season also gives him a chance to remain the starter. "Jake may not give all the other guys the opportunity to make plays like Matt does, but Jake can make plays with his legs," Palmer concluded. "When you add up how many plays Matt can make with the team and how many plays Jake can make with the team then you kind of have an idea who's going to give us the best chance to win."
Analysis: Hasselbeck started every game for the Titans in 2011 and threw for 3,571 yards with 18 scores and 14 interceptions. But when Locker did play, he did well, passing for four touchdowns with no interceptions and rushing for 56 yards on eight carries with a touchdowns run. Locker's completion percentage continued to be an eyesore (34 of 66 passing for 51.5 pct.), but the stats speak for themselves. Unless Locker can really prove that he's progressed as a passer, Hasselbeck is likely to take this job -- though there's no promise he'll start every game. Neither Titans QB should be drafted with anything more than a late-round pick. We'll keep you posted on the battle.

Brandon Lloyd
Lloyd already up to speed with Pats
Brandon Lloyd, WR, NE
5/25/2012
News: New Patriots receiver Brandon Lloyd has been impressive during the team's OTAs, but many people expected that. After all, Lloyd is on his third stop with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and knows the playbook and play calls like the back of his hand. Lloyd has been so impressive that the Boston Globe reports that Patriots quarterbacks have been looking for him all week because he's been exactly where he needs to be on every play. Lloyd was coy when it came to his role and his goals for this season but gave a pretty simple explanation on why he wanted to follow McDaniels to New England. "You find something good, you stick with it," he said. "I think that's the case for everybody, with everything in life."
Analysis: Lloyd had 51 catches for 683 yards and five scores last year in 11 games in St. Louis when McDaniels was the offensive coordinator, and that came on the heels of a 77-catch, 1,448-yard, 11-touchdown season with McDaniels in Denver. He'll probably see a dip in opportunities because he'll share the field with so many other great weapons there. But he should still be about as productive as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver and should be drafted as such with a mid-round pick.

Ronnie Hillman
Tamme: Hillman looks good
Ronnie Hillman, RB, DEN
5/25/2012
News: In an interview with Moving The Chains on SiriusXM NFL Radio, new Broncos tight end Jacob Tamme gave an encouraging scouting report on rookie rusher Ronnie Hillman. "He seems to have a lot of quickness," Tamme said. "I've got to see him carry a few and catch some passes, he seems like a guy who can really move and sort of be a threat from the scatback-type position."
Analysis: Yep, that sounds like Hillman, who averaged over 130 total yards per game in 2011 with 20 total touchdowns while breaking some of Marshall Faulk's records at San Diego State. Hillman isn't a big back (5-foot-9, 200 pounds) but definitely plays bigger than he is. He's done good work between the tackles but is better known for his lateral agility and breakaway speed. Landing in Denver is nice since he won't be stuck behind a young back for long -- Willis McGahee will turn 31 in October and Knowshon Moreno is coming off of a torn ACL. We could see Hillman contribute this season, especially if he can perfect his pass blocking and receiving skills. Expect him to be taken late in all seasonal drafts as well as with a mid-to-late pick in dynasty/keeper leagues and a second-round pick in rookie-only formats.

Jacob Tamme
Tamme talks offense, role
Jacob Tamme, TE, DEN
5/25/2012
News: In an interview with Moving The Chains on SiriusXM NFL Radio, new Broncos tight end Jacob Tamme sounded very excited to follow quarterback Peyton Manning to Denver from Indy, adding that he "looks great." Tamme's also excited about the direction of the new offense, calling it a mix of what he did with Manning with the Colts and what offensive coordinator Mike McCoy wants to do. On the topic of his specific role with the Broncos, Tamme didn't want to give away much but did offer what he thinks is great about being a tight end. "I'm comfortable in slot and love that, but I would say I lined up on the line of scrimmage more than everywhere else [with the Colts]," Tamme said. " ... We should be able to move around and what we're going to do offensively, hopefully, we'll be able to move around some. I think that's what's great about playing tight end these days, you get to do everything. It's what makes the position a lot of fun."
Analysis: If we're reading between the lines, the Broncos could use Tamme as a tight end, slot receiver and H-back this season, all roles he's capable of playing as evidenced by his time in Indianapolis. Being comfortable with Manning is also built-in thanks to their relationship back in Indiana. Tamme had just 177 yards on 19 catches in 2011 with one score, but he worked behind starter Dallas Clark in a Manning-less Colts offense. In 10 games without Dallas Clark in 2010, Tamme caught 67 passes for 631 yards and four touchdowns. Expect him to have some Clark-like potential and thus get swiped with a middle- to late-round pick in drafts this summer as a borderline No. 1/No. 2 TE.

Stephen Hill
Hill lines up as starter in OTAs
Stephen Hill, WR, NYJ
5/25/2012
News: Jets rookie receiver Stephen Hill lined up opposite Santonio Holmes with the first-team offense during their recent OTAs. He caught a 75-yard touchdown pass from Mark Sanchez, burning cornerback Kyle Wilson in the process, according to the Newark Star-Ledger.
Analysis: The Jets aren't going to have a dominant pass attack, so that could limit Hill's production. But he does have the chance for plenty of playing time, which is a plus. He's worth a late-round pick in seasonal formats, a middle- to late-round pick in dynasty/keeper leagues and a Top 20 pick in rookie-only drafts.

 
 
 
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