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Dave Richard

A Fantasy read on the Denver Broncos

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Broncos coach Mike Shanahan is at it again.

Like he has done previously with Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Reuben Droughns, Tatum Bell and Mike Bell, the offensive guru is tabbing a nobody-turned-somebody to run the ball for Denver (Clinton Portis doesn't count -- we knew he'd be good). This time, it's second-year running back Selvin Young, who signed with Denver as an undrafted free agent last spring, as the Broncos' starting running back in 2008. Young figures to be the best fit to run in Denver's zone-blocking scheme after getting 729 yards on a mere 140 carries (a 5.2 avg.) in 2007, adding 231 yards on 35 grabs.

The precedent for Young is high: Last year was the first time since 2001 that the Broncos didn't have a 1,000-yard running back. Considering how quickly he grasped Denver's running style last year, chances are he'll be the next 1,000-yard back in the Mile High City.

That is, if the other runners on the roster stay out of his way. And again, knowing Mike Shanahan, that's going to be an issue. Veteran Michael Pittman, fifth-round rookie Ryan Torain and second-year speedster Andre Hall (who was undrafted) will jockey for position behind Young in camp.

Shanahan has been known to change his mind on who his running back will be, so Young's status isn't a lead-pipe lock, though it helps that Shanahan has said publicly that Young is the Broncos' main workhorse. Shanahan has also said previously that Young isn't capable of toting the ball more than 15 times per game, though he did top that mark four times last year (with two 100-yard games in those four). Young will have to not only be effective with the ball but also not fumble in order for Shanahan to stay with him.

As always, the Denver backfield is a popular spot for Fantasy owners to focus on, but as it's been for most of the time since Portis was moved to Washington, nothing is ever certain.

Positives: Young has a good year of work under his belt in Denver and knows the Broncos' running attack like the back of his hand. Young also has excellent speed and good hands -- he had eight runs of 20 or more yards in '07 and a pair of 20-plus yard receptions -- so he's a versatile back. With Shanahan naming him the starter earlier this offseason, and with the club dumping veteran Travis Henry, Young has a lot to be confident about and shouldn't feel much pressure to perform during the preseason.

Negatives: Size, durability and endurance are issues. Young is not built to smack between the tackles, he missed a game last year with a knee sprain, and he went from a 6.4 yards per carry average in the first halves of games to a 3.6 average in the second halves of games. But the biggest drawback to owning Young is that because he's not a physical runner, he's not a candidate to play at the goal line. Young scored one touchdown in 2007 -- a 20-yard run at Kansas City. Denver's pass attack and the other runners on board will cut into Young's touches.

Outlook: The good news is that Young should be considered a mortal lock for a few touchdowns and 1,000 rush yards -- we see him getting a smidge more than that -- but anything more would be unexpected. With Pittman to take third-down duties and Torain to potentially get into the mix in a number of roles (he fits in really well with the Denver offense), the club doesn't have a stud running back you can count on for huge Fantasy totals. But Young is the closest you can get. Think of him as a No. 3 running back worth a pick between Rounds 5 and 6.

Position battle: No. 2 running back

Michael Pittman
Pro: A late arrival to Denver this offseason, the 11-year veteran is expected to handle third-down duties, which he is definitely cut out for. Pittman is a versatile, physical running back who is adept at pass blocking.
Con: Age is beginning to catch up with Pittman, who experienced a downswing in his stats both rushing and receiving last season with Tampa Bay. Furthermore, Pittman hasn't had a big touchdown campaign since 2004 when he was the Bucs' starting running back. Touches will be tough to come by in Denver's crowded backfield.
Ryan Torain
Pro: A rookie, Torain is familiar with and able to run effectively in the Broncos' running style thanks to his days of running in it while at Arizona State. He proved to be a physical back there and totaled 12 touchdowns in 14 starts (19 games) with five more scores through the air.
Con: Torain suffered the dreaded Lisfranc sprain in his senior season and is on the comeback trail from it. He also has a history of sprained ankles dating back to his sophomore year at school. Torain also doesn't have a lot of burst or acceleration (4.71 in the 40-yard dash at the combine), likely limiting his long runs.
Prediction: Training camp will sort out what the roles will be, but Torain has a shot at starting the season as a goal-line back and eventually working his way into a feature role if starter Young is ineffective. Drafting for upside is the way to go here; think of Torain as a solid middle- to late-round pick while Pittman is more of a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

Position battle: No. 2 wide receiver

Keary Colbert
Pro: Out of the proverbial doghouse in Carolina, Colbert has a shot at starting over in Denver. In 2004-05, Colbert missed one game and amassed seven touchdowns.
Con: In 2006-07, Colbert made 11 starts and had no touchdowns. He was nowhere near a threat for defenses to worry about in Carolina, and the Broncos hope they can revive his career.
Darrell Jackson
Pro: A nine-year veteran, Jackson has been as good as a No. 1 Fantasy receiver in his career, notching a trio of 1,000-yard seasons. He also has 50 career scores including 10 in 2006.
Con: Jackson has a knee condition that limits his speed and durability -- he's missed 14 games over the last three seasons. Additionally, Jackson's yardage and touchdowns were diminished in his first and only year with the 49ers (497 yards, 10.8 avg., three TDs).
Brandon Stokley
Pro: Stokley finished second on the team in receiving yards with 635 last year with five touchdowns as he developed into a favorite target of Jay Cutler's from the slot.
Con: Stokley's '07 was his second-best year statistically, including six of his nine seasons without even 500 yards or more than two touchdowns. A knee injury limited his play last season as well.
Prediction: Jackson seems to be the most likely candidate to rack up the most stats, but chances are that Denver will experiment all preseason with who should play opposite Brandon Marshall. None of the above players are worth anything more than a late-round pick in deeper leagues.
 
 
 
Player News
Rashard Mendenhall
PUP list in Mendenhall's future
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
2:15 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Mendenhall tore his right ACL in Week 17 of last season; recovery time for such injuries is anywhere from nine months to a year.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He'll likely get the first crack at starting in place of Mendenhall. There's still a lot of time between now and the regular season, but for now it's probably safe to expect Mendenhall to not be at even close to 100 percent to start the year, which will absolutely impact his Fantasy value. By August, you might be drafting Mendenhall as a middle- to late-round sleeper you'll have to sit on for a while. We'll keep you posted on Mendenhall as best as we can.

Randy Moss
Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
10:10 AM
News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to." NFL Network reports that teams have already been calling his agent following the news.
Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Calvin Johnson
Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
9:39 AM
News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.
Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

DeSean Jackson
Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
9:36 AM
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.
Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Isaac Redman
Redman in line to start for Steelers?
Isaac Redman, RB, PIT
2:23 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. That would open the door for Isaac Redman to be the starting rusher entering training camp.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He's also stepped up while working with Mendenhall and without him, though his one other start in 2011 was a flop (61 total yards, no touchdowns vs. Tennessee). By August we might recommend drafting Redman with a pick in Round 6 or 7 as a good early-season starting option with potential to be a quality Fantasy choice for the entire season. We'll see how the Steelers' run game shakes out.

Steve Slaton
Slaton, Dolphins likely parting ways
Steve Slaton, RB, MIA
12:56 PM
News: The Palm Beach Post reports that RB Steve Slaton is not expected to return to the Dolphins in 2012. Slaton played in three games this season with zero starts after being picked up on waivers before Week 4. He had 17 carries for 64 yards (3.8 average) with one touchdown and a long of 28 and also returned three kickoffs for 85 yards. Slaton was signed as insurance early in the season when both Reggie Bush (groin) and Daniel Thomas (hamstring) battled injuries.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Slaton plays in 2012, but he likely has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in all leagues on Draft Day.

Doug Baldwin
Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
11:14 AM
News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”
Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Hines Ward
Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
9:53 AM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on the future of Hines Ward. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported previously that if the Steelers did decide to release Ward, he was unaware of it. NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report. Ward's 2012 salary is high and he's expected to at least take a significant pay cut, if not get released altogether. Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Josh Morgan
Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
9:49 AM
News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

Jeremy Shockey
Panthers could bring back Shockey
Jeremy Shockey, TE, CAR
9:46 AM
News: The Charlotte Observer considers re-signing free agent TE Jeremy Shockey a "high priority" this offseason. Shockey was the No. 2 TE for the Panthers behind Greg Olsen, and he had a productive season when he caught 37 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns and missed only one game to injury.
Analysis: Though not the same receiver he was a decade ago, Shockey still is a dependable target, particularly in the red zone. If his asking price is too high, Panthers could turn to Gary Barnidge, who was having a great 2011 camp before breaking his ankle. Keep an eye on what happens with Shockey, and if he returns to the Panthers as expected he would be a No. 2 Fantasy TE on Draft Day worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

 
 
 
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