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Jamey Eisenberg

A Fantasy read on the Arizona Cardinals

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


To Edgerrin James, a good season is 1,500 yards rushing. It's a mark he's reached four times in his nine-year career, and it's a number he believes he can get to again.

While most Fantasy owners are down on James this season, he still feels like an elite running back. And he's not concerned with all the negatives hanging over his head.

"I know what I'm capable of doing," James said in an interview with CBSSports.com this offseason.

His age (30 in August), career carries (2,849) and the pass-happy offense he plays in will definitely scare owners, but Arizona still has faith in James. The Cardinals only added one running back this offseason in rookie Tim Hightower from Richmond, but he was drafted in the fifth round and will compete with Marcel Shipp and J.J. Arrington for backup duties.

James remains a key part of this offense, and he can still produce like a starting Fantasy option. In mock drafts so far, James has been drafted starting in the fourth round, which means you can get a stud running back and two standout receivers before landing James.

That's a good way to start your Fantasy team.

Even though it appears James has struggled with the Cardinals, his stats aren't terrible. In his first year in Arizona in 2006, James had 1,159 rushing yards and six touchdowns and 38 catches for 217 yards.

Last year, James had 1,224 rushing yards and seven touchdowns and 24 catches for 204 yards. Those numbers make James a No. 2 Fantasy option, but they pale in comparison to what he did in Indianapolis when he rushed for over 1,250 yards in five of his seven years with the Colts with 64 touchdowns over that span.

That's why Fantasy owners are down on James. He's not going to put up the same stats he did with the Colts. He's also not going to get 1,500 yards rushing again. But he will still do well enough to be a starting Fantasy option. And if you build your team the right way, James will be a positive cog in a potential championship roster.

Positives: James will remain the No. 1 running back for the Cardinals, who have an explosive offense. He hasn't displayed his receiving skills for Arizona the past two years but remains a decent source of catches. Look for more rushing touchdowns this season. You know he's going to touch the ball 20 times a game.

Negatives: The Cardinals offensive line still is a work in progress. Arizona remains a pass-happy offense, especially if Kurt Warner wins the starting job over Matt Leinart. Last year, the Cardinals took James off the field at times in the red zone, and it's unknown if that will happen again.

Outlook: James remains a quality No. 2 Fantasy running back, and he probably has one more good season left. He's a safe bet for 1,200 rushing yards and seven touchdowns and 30 catches for 300 yards and probably another touchdown. Follow the current mock drafts and take him around the fourth round after you’ve drafted three solid starters at running back and wide receiver.

Position battle: No. 1 quarterback

Matt Leinart
Pro: He's been given the keys to the offense and has the talent to succeed. It will help if Boldin and Fitzgerald stay healthy, which hasn't been the case the past two seasons. If Leinart stays healthy and is able to start all 16 games, he's a candidate for about 25 touchdowns and 3,500 passing yards. Boldin told CBSSports.com this offseason he expects Leinart to improve in 2008. "Matt is a great talent," Boldin said. "He started over with a new system last year and was starting to find his way before getting hurt. This year, Matt is our guy."
Con: For the past two years, Leinart has faltered, whether due to inconsistent play, injury (broken collarbone in 2007) or Warner just being a better fit. Even if Leinart starts every game, he could lose touchdowns to Warner in the Cardinals "goal-line package." Leinart has been injured the past two seasons and could be viewed as fragile. One bad stretch for Leinart and he could be benched.
Kurt Warner
Pro: Warner was an elite Fantasy quarterback last year when he replaced Leinart, throwing for 3,417 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions and also running for a score. As much as Boldin and Fitzgerald will back Leinart, the receivers know Warner is the better passer. "Kurt is big on timing, which is good for me," Boldin said. "When Kurt is in there, the ball is there as soon as I come out of my route. I always tell him to just put the ball 2 feet off the ground and I'll go get it."
Con: Leinart is the future of the franchise and will given plenty of chances to succeed. There is no guarantee Warner gets an extension, which could leave him disgruntled. He's better suited coming out of the bullpen, which means the Cardinals might wait for a losing streak to bring him in.
Prediction: Draft Leinart as a No. 2 Fantasy option and wait to pick Warner off the waiver wire if he's given the job. The only way you should draft Warner is if you have Tom Brady or Peyton Manning and don't need to worry about a backup. Then if Warner starts, you have solid trade bait.

Position battle: No. 2 running back

Marcel Shipp
Pro: Shipp is currently No. 2 on the depth chart behind starter Edgerrin James, which is the role Shipp held last year. The coaches trust him since he's a veteran. He had one touchdown last year but got consistent playing time in short-yardage situations.
Con: Shipp hasn't done much since 2002 and is no lock to make the team. He only has 10 catches the past two seasons. The Cardinals are ready to replace him.
J.J. Arrington
Pro: Arrington played well in a third-down role and finished with 29 catches for 241 yards and a touchdown. He has the highest potential of this group, which is why he was drafted in the second round in the 2005 NFL Draft.
Con: Arrington has two rushing touchdowns in his career, and both were in his rookie season in 2005. He has only 40 carries the past two seasons. His special teams play will limit his offensive production.
Tim Hightower
Pro: The Cardinals like Hightower's running style and ability to make plays, which is why they drafted him in the fifth round of this year's NFL draft, and he was the only running back added this offseason. As a senior at Richmond, Hightower scored 23 touchdowns with more than 2,000 total yards.
Con: As a rookie, Hightower might not get much playing time, especially if he can't grasp the blitz protection. He will have to outplay Arrington as the third-down back, and Shipp still will get goal-line carries.
Prediction: Hightower is No. 2, and Arrington is the third-down back. Look for Shipp to be a low-end reserve or not make the team. When looking at it from a Fantasy perspective, especially since James is 30 and on the downside of his career, consider Hightower the handcuff option and take him with a late-round selection in 2008.
 
 
 
Player News
Rashard Mendenhall
PUP list in Mendenhall's future
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
2:15 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Mendenhall tore his right ACL in Week 17 of last season; recovery time for such injuries is anywhere from nine months to a year.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He'll likely get the first crack at starting in place of Mendenhall. There's still a lot of time between now and the regular season, but for now it's probably safe to expect Mendenhall to not be at even close to 100 percent to start the year, which will absolutely impact his Fantasy value. By August, you might be drafting Mendenhall as a middle- to late-round sleeper you'll have to sit on for a while. We'll keep you posted on Mendenhall as best as we can.

Randy Moss
Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
10:10 AM
News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to." NFL Network reports that teams have already been calling his agent following the news.
Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Calvin Johnson
Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
9:39 AM
News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.
Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

DeSean Jackson
Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
9:36 AM
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.
Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Isaac Redman
Redman in line to start for Steelers?
Isaac Redman, RB, PIT
2:23 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. That would open the door for Isaac Redman to be the starting rusher entering training camp.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He's also stepped up while working with Mendenhall and without him, though his one other start in 2011 was a flop (61 total yards, no touchdowns vs. Tennessee). By August we might recommend drafting Redman with a pick in Round 6 or 7 as a good early-season starting option with potential to be a quality Fantasy choice for the entire season. We'll see how the Steelers' run game shakes out.

Steve Slaton
Slaton, Dolphins likely parting ways
Steve Slaton, RB, MIA
12:56 PM
News: The Palm Beach Post reports that RB Steve Slaton is not expected to return to the Dolphins in 2012. Slaton played in three games this season with zero starts after being picked up on waivers before Week 4. He had 17 carries for 64 yards (3.8 average) with one touchdown and a long of 28 and also returned three kickoffs for 85 yards. Slaton was signed as insurance early in the season when both Reggie Bush (groin) and Daniel Thomas (hamstring) battled injuries.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Slaton plays in 2012, but he likely has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in all leagues on Draft Day.

Doug Baldwin
Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
11:14 AM
News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”
Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Hines Ward
Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
9:53 AM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on the future of Hines Ward. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported previously that if the Steelers did decide to release Ward, he was unaware of it. NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report. Ward's 2012 salary is high and he's expected to at least take a significant pay cut, if not get released altogether. Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Josh Morgan
Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
9:49 AM
News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

Jeremy Shockey
Panthers could bring back Shockey
Jeremy Shockey, TE, CAR
9:46 AM
News: The Charlotte Observer considers re-signing free agent TE Jeremy Shockey a "high priority" this offseason. Shockey was the No. 2 TE for the Panthers behind Greg Olsen, and he had a productive season when he caught 37 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns and missed only one game to injury.
Analysis: Though not the same receiver he was a decade ago, Shockey still is a dependable target, particularly in the red zone. If his asking price is too high, Panthers could turn to Gary Barnidge, who was having a great 2011 camp before breaking his ankle. Keep an eye on what happens with Shockey, and if he returns to the Panthers as expected he would be a No. 2 Fantasy TE on Draft Day worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

 
 
 
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