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Dave Richard

A Fantasy read on the Oakland Raiders

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


In a year where quarterbacks are increasing in popularity in Fantasy drafts, owners are on the lookout for the big sleeper.

If they take that term literally, there's none larger than the 6-foot-6, 255-pound (or so) JaMarcus Russell of the Raiders.

Figuratively, there might not be as big of a sleeper either.

Russell's 2007 was mostly a nightmare. He held out until September and didn't take a snap until Week 13. From there, he failed to complete more than 40 percent of his passes until the final week of the season, when he finally showed some promise in his only start, completing 23-of-31 passes for 224 yards with a touchdown and an interception.

This offseason, Russell didn't have any distractions. In fact, head coach Lane Kiffin has said he's been pleased with how hard Russell has worked to improve his game and expects it to translate onto the field in training camp.

The club has also taken steps to ensure that Russell will have every opportunity to thrive in 2008. They took steps to improve their receiving corps with the additions of Javon Walker and Drew Carter and added a playmaker in Darren McFadden in the 2008 NFL Draft. Walker has since been involved in an incident in Las Vegas that left him with significant injuries to his face, but the team expects him to be ready for the start of the season.

All the better for Russell, who will see every offensive snap for Oakland in 2008 so long as he is healthy.

Positives: Russell has immense size and strength, excellent mobility and one of the best young arms in the game. His offseason preparation will only help him connect with his upgraded supporting cast. Walker and Carter are both deep-ball receivers, with Walker the more talented and more established of the two, and they should enhance the output for fellow receiver Ronald Curry and tight end Zach Miller. Additionally, McFadden should be on the field often enough to be a receiving option and dump-pass beneficiary for Russell, padding both of their stat lines. With Oakland's down-the-field passing approach, Russell's numbers should be solid.

Negatives: The Raiders' offense looks good on paper. Walker is a significant injury risk that would put a cap on Russell's stats if he doesn't play to the level like he did in 2004 and 2006. McFadden is a rookie and could struggle at the pro level early on. And let's not forget that Russell only has 66 regular-season pass attempts under his belt. What's more, the offensive line is still a question mark even with offseason additions of tackle Kwame Harris and center John Wade. While the Raiders' run game was much improved last year, pass protection remains a soft spot, and that could inhibit Russell's numbers.

Outlook: A lot of Fantasy owners will remember Russell's amazing days at LSU or consider his potential and pencil him in as their No. 2 Fantasy quarterback. That's a good idea -- assuming you've missed on more reliable backup Fantasy passers in your draft. There's no denying Russell's measurables and potential, but rolling the dice on him when more experienced and established second-tier Fantasy options are available is too high of a risk. If your league rosters are deep enough (say 17 or more spots), Russell is worth carrying as a low-end No. 2 or even a rare third Fantasy quarterback with the hopes that he strikes gold in 2008 thanks to the improvements around him and the ability he has. We see him as a 3,000-yard passer with 20-touchdown potential, but with plenty of interceptions and fumbles as he continues to learn the position.

Position battle: No. 1 running back

Darren McFadden
Pro: The Raiders' top pick in the 2008 draft, McFadden's skills have been well chronicled. A speedster with incredible field vision, excellent hands, all-around athleticism and a solid upper body, McFadden should be next in a long line of successful Raiders running backs. Having head coach Lane Kiffin, who worked at USC with Reggie Bush, work on how to use McFadden will only improve his stats.
Con: McFadden's only knocks coming into the NFL were his ball-security skills and his lack of lower-body strength. Those remain question marks, but his biggest obstacle might be finding regular playing time since the Raiders rode Justin Fargas last season en route to being a top-10 rushing offense. McFadden was also not a standout receiver in college and could struggle at first in that aspect of the game.
Justin Fargas
Pro: We had nearly forgotten about Fargas until he exploded in 2007 behind the Raiders' improved running attack. In 14 games (seven starts), Fargas had 222 carries for 1,009 yards (4.5 avg.) with four scores and four 100-yard games. Knowing full well that they had an early first-round draft pick, the Raiders still opted to keep Fargas and signed him to a contract extension during the offseason.
Con: Before Fargas' big breakout, he had amassed 1,016 yards on 258 carries (3.9 avg.) with two touchdows over four seasons and 52 games. Was he motivated last year because he was in a contract year? The Raiders' drafting of McFadden nearly clinches Fargas as an unlikely contender for 1,000 rush yards.
Prediction: The Raiders didn't spend a top-five pick on McFadden for nothing -- even if Fargas officially starts games, the expectation is that McFadden will post robust numbers and is the more appealing Fantasy running back. Adding to both runners' concerns is second-year running back Michael Bush, who is also expected to play a role in the running game, possibly as a goal-line back.
 
 
 
Player News
Matt Schaub
Schaub doing well in rehab
Matt Schaub, QB, HOU
1:03 PM
News: The Houston Chronicle reports Tuesday that Texans QB Matt Schaub, who finished the season on injured reserve following foot surgery, is doing well and his rehab is ahead of schedule. The report says Schaub works out almost every day.
Analysis: This is great news, and we expect Schaub to return at 100 percent in 2012. Continue to monitor what happens with Schaub, but he should be considered a low-end No. 1/high-end No. 2 Fantasy QB heading into the season. He is worth a mid-round pick in all leagues on Draft Day.

Lofa Tatupu
Tatupu visits Saints
Lofa Tatupu, LB, SEA
2:36 PM
News: Free agent LB Lofau Tatupu visited with the Saints on Monday, according to NFL.com. The 29-year-old Tatupu sat out the 2011 season. The former Pro Bowl MLB was asked to take a pay cut by the Seahawks after the lockout ended last summer, and subsequently asked for his release. Tatupu was scheduled to visit with the Raiders and Redskins in August, but didn't sign with anyone and fell off the radar for the remainder of the year while he reportedly dealt with a knee injury. Tatupu was scheduled to earn more than $4 million in 2011 before his release by Seattle. The six-year veteran was a second-round pick and has played in three Pro Bowls. But he also started to wear down from 2008-2010, including finishing 2009 on injured reserve with a knee injury. He did start all 16 games in 2010, but had surgery on both knees during the offseason.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Tatupu and where he plays in 2012. When healthy and active he could be a No. 3 Fantasy LB worth a late-round pick in IDP leagues.

Ravens
Flacco, Ravens to work on deal
Ravens, TQB BAL,
12:47 PM
News: The NFL Network reports that the Ravens are set to open contract extension talks with QB Joe Flacco's agent at the NFL Combine next week. The report says both sides aim for a long-term deal. Flacco is entering a contract year in 2012, and Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti recently said Flacco would be the team's starting quarterback for years to come.
Analysis: Flacco's won a lot of games for the Ravens but hasn't taken the next step statistically, even when the team added Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith. Flacco has had between 3,610 and 3,622 passing yards and between 20 and 25 touchdowns in each of his last three seasons. But this year his completion percentage and yards per attempt dropped like a rock while his pass attempts hit a career high (542, breaking the previous mark of 499). Flacco fits the bill as a great No. 2 Fantasy QB; though he's finally outfitted with a quality receiving corps, he simply doesn't invoke much confidence as a starting option. Look for him late in drafts.

Jahvid Best
Best 'on pace' for offseason work
Jahvid Best, RB, DET
12:43 PM
News: The Detroit Free-Press reports that Lions RB Jahvid Best’s status remains uncertain because of concussion problems even though team president Tom Lewand is optimistic. Lewand said Best is "on pace" to be ready for offseason workouts, and he is looking forward to seeing Best and Mikel Leshoure play together. "Jahvid is a special player and he'll be even more dynamic when he can ... share the load with a guy like Mikel in the backfield."
Analysis: We hope Best can return at 100 percent, but he will likely be used as a change of pace rusher and a third-down back. Continue to monitor what happens with Best, but he should only be drafted with a late-round pick in standard leagues and a mid-round selection in PPR formats since he will likely be used in tandem with Leshoure and possibly Kevin Smith if he returns as a free agent.

Mikel Leshoure
Leshoure's recovery going well
Mikel Leshoure, RB, DET
12:40 PM
News: The Detroit Free-Press reports that Lions RB Mikel Leshoure, who tore his left Achilles tendon in the second week of training camp last year, is close to making a full recovery. At the Lions’ request, Leshoure just moved the final stages of his rehab back to Detroit from Arizona. He’s doing resistance work and light running and is expected to join OTA workouts at some point this offseason. Leshoure looked like he was going to be a key part of the Lions offense when injury struck last August, and the team is anxious to get a read on him this spring. RB Jahvid Best’s status remains uncertain because of concussion problems, and even if Best returns it’s clear he’s not an every-down back.
Analysis: Leshoure should be considered a great sleeper heading into 2012, and he is worth drafting as a No. 3 Fantasy RB as long as he's healthy. He has tremendous upside, and he could be a great weapon for the Lions, especially with Best struggling as an every-down back. Continue to monitor what happens with Leshoure, but he is worth drafting as early as Round 6 in 2012.

Mike Wallace
Steelers want to lock up Wallace
Mike Wallace, WR, PIT
12:17 PM
News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday the team wants to keep WR Mike Wallace "here for the long run." Wallace, their leading receiver last season, will become a restricted free agent March 13.
Analysis: Wallace played well in 2011 with 72 catches for 1,193 yards and eight touchdowns on 114 targets. He will remain in Pittsburgh in 2012, and hopefully he can sign a long-term deal. We consider Wallace a Top 10 Fantasy WR on Draft Day, and he should be selected in all leagues in Round 3.

Hines Ward
GM says no decision on Ward yet
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
12:13 PM
News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on whether WR Hines Ward will be back with the Steelers in 2012. "To this current point, no final decisions have been made," Colbert said. "We've had several discussions internally. We're right in the midst of our free agent evaluations of other teams' free agents. We'll meet on those [on the Steelers roster] starting Thursday and carry through Monday." A recent report on NFL Network said that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Brandon Lloyd
Pats could go after Lloyd
Brandon Lloyd, WR, STL
12:08 PM
News: The Boston Herald reports that the Patriots will be in the market for a WR this year, and one obvious possibility is Brandon Lloyd, who is an impending free agent, because of his ties to offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. The fact that Lloyd said “I’m tied to McDaniels” makes him a likely free agent target. Lloyd had 51 catches for 683 yards and five TDs last year in 11 games in St. Louis when McDaniels was the offensive coordinator makes him look pretty good after he amassed 77 catches for 1,448 yards and 11 scores with Denver when McDaniels was the coach.
Analysis: One holdup for Lloyd and the Patriots could be Lloyd's agent, Tom Condon, who has a rocky relationship with the Patriots. We'll see what plays out this offseason, but if Lloyd signs in New England he would be considered a low-end No. 2 Fantasy WR. He could still return to the Rams, where he would be a strong No. 3 option. Or he could shop himself around the league. Stay tuned, but either way Lloyd is worth a mid-round pick in all leagues.

Bills
Fitzpatrick finished season hurt
Bills, TQB BUF,
11:53 AM
News: The Sports Xchange reports that Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick's second-half swoon in 2011 was mystifying to fans and media who concluded the front office badly miscalculated in handing the career journeyman a 10-year, $60 million contract extension. But now it appears Fitzpatrick played the final nine games last season with cracked ribs. "A lot of people don't know, but Fitz, during the Washington game, actually cracked a couple of ribs," WR David Nelson said. "So after that he was playing hurt." It showed. In Fitzpatrick's first seven games of the year, he threw for 1,739 yards, 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. After the injury, he had 2,093 yards, 10 touchdowns and 16 picks. He finished the year with a league-high 23 interceptions. "It's hard to find the silver lining but as we evaluate the season and what went right and what went wrong I'm sure we'll find a lot of positives and a lot of things that we can carry into next year hopefully and continue to get better at it," Fitzpatrick said.
Analysis: Fitzpatrick obviously has 4,000-yard, 25-touchdown potential, but issues involving the personnel around him along with his own issues (accuracy, for one) make him risky for weekly use in Fantasy. Figure that he's worth a late-round pick as a good No. 2 Fantasy QB with potential to be a low-end starter. It should only help him if the Bills not only re-sign Steve Johnson this offseason, but also add talent at wide receiver.

Josh Scobee
Jags want Scobee back
Josh Scobee, K, JAC
11:47 AM
News: The Sports Xchange reports that Jacksonville has most of its top offensive players locked into contracts for the coming season with one notable exception - kicker Josh Scobee, who is an eight-year veteran. Scobee has been one of the league's most accurate kickers in his eight seasons with the Jaguars, converting better than 75 percent of his field-goal attempts in all but one season. Scobee led the team in scoring last year with 92 points, including 23 of 25 (92 percent) field-goal attempts, the second time in his career he's finished over 90 percent with his kicks. It isn't likely the Jaguars would use the franchise tag on him and probably won't have to. They'll make every attempt to sign him. For a team that was among the league's lowest scoring clubs, the Jaguars can ill afford to lose a player with Scobee's talents.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Scobee. He is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues, but he could be used as a bye-week replacement as long as he remains with the Jaguars.

 
 
 
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