In a year where quarterbacks are increasing in popularity in Fantasy drafts, owners are on the lookout for the big sleeper.
If they take that term literally, there's none larger than the 6-foot-6, 255-pound (or so) JaMarcus Russell of the Raiders.
Figuratively, there might not be as big of a sleeper either.
Russell's 2007 was mostly a nightmare. He held out until September and didn't take a snap until Week 13. From there, he failed to complete more than 40 percent of his passes until the final week of the season, when he finally showed some promise in his only start, completing 23-of-31 passes for 224 yards with a touchdown and an interception.
This offseason, Russell didn't have any distractions. In fact, head coach Lane Kiffin has said he's been pleased with how hard Russell has worked to improve his game and expects it to translate onto the field in training camp.
The club has also taken steps to ensure that Russell will have every opportunity to thrive in 2008. They took steps to improve their receiving corps with the additions of Javon Walker and Drew Carter and added a playmaker in Darren McFadden in the 2008 NFL Draft. Walker has since been involved in an incident in Las Vegas that left him with significant injuries to his face, but the team expects him to be ready for the start of the season.
All the better for Russell, who will see every offensive snap for Oakland in 2008 so long as he is healthy.
Positives: Russell has immense size and strength, excellent mobility and one of the best young arms in the game. His offseason preparation will only help him connect with his upgraded supporting cast. Walker and Carter are both deep-ball receivers, with Walker the more talented and more established of the two, and they should enhance the output for fellow receiver Ronald Curry and tight end Zach Miller. Additionally, McFadden should be on the field often enough to be a receiving option and dump-pass beneficiary for Russell, padding both of their stat lines. With Oakland's down-the-field passing approach, Russell's numbers should be solid.
Negatives: The Raiders' offense looks good on paper. Walker is a significant injury risk that would put a cap on Russell's stats if he doesn't play to the level like he did in 2004 and 2006. McFadden is a rookie and could struggle at the pro level early on. And let's not forget that Russell only has 66 regular-season pass attempts under his belt. What's more, the offensive line is still a question mark even with offseason additions of tackle Kwame Harris and center John Wade. While the Raiders' run game was much improved last year, pass protection remains a soft spot, and that could inhibit Russell's numbers.
Outlook: A lot of Fantasy owners will remember Russell's amazing days at LSU or consider his potential and pencil him in as their No. 2 Fantasy quarterback. That's a good idea -- assuming you've missed on more reliable backup Fantasy passers in your draft. There's no denying Russell's measurables and potential, but rolling the dice on him when more experienced and established second-tier Fantasy options are available is too high of a risk. If your league rosters are deep enough (say 17 or more spots), Russell is worth carrying as a low-end No. 2 or even a rare third Fantasy quarterback with the hopes that he strikes gold in 2008 thanks to the improvements around him and the ability he has. We see him as a 3,000-yard passer with 20-touchdown potential, but with plenty of interceptions and fumbles as he continues to learn the position.
Position battle: No. 1 running back
 | Darren McFadden
Pro: The Raiders' top pick in the 2008 draft, McFadden's skills have been well chronicled. A speedster with incredible field vision, excellent hands, all-around athleticism and a solid upper body, McFadden should be next in a long line of successful Raiders running backs. Having head coach Lane Kiffin, who worked at USC with Reggie Bush, work on how to use McFadden will only improve his stats.
Con: McFadden's only knocks coming into the NFL were his ball-security skills and his lack of lower-body strength. Those remain question marks, but his biggest obstacle might be finding regular playing time since the Raiders rode Justin Fargas last season en route to being a top-10 rushing offense. McFadden was also not a standout receiver in college and could struggle at first in that aspect of the game. |
 | Justin Fargas
Pro: We had nearly forgotten about Fargas until he exploded in 2007 behind the Raiders' improved running attack. In 14 games (seven starts), Fargas had 222 carries for 1,009 yards (4.5 avg.) with four scores and four 100-yard games. Knowing full well that they had an early first-round draft pick, the Raiders still opted to keep Fargas and signed him to a contract extension during the offseason.
Con: Before Fargas' big breakout, he had amassed 1,016 yards on 258 carries (3.9 avg.) with two touchdows over four seasons and 52 games. Was he motivated last year because he was in a contract year? The Raiders' drafting of McFadden nearly clinches Fargas as an unlikely contender for 1,000 rush yards. | | Prediction: The Raiders didn't spend a top-five pick on McFadden for nothing -- even if Fargas officially starts games, the expectation is that McFadden will post robust numbers and is the more appealing Fantasy running back. Adding to both runners' concerns is second-year running back Michael Bush, who is also expected to play a role in the running game, possibly as a goal-line back. | |
