Vernon Davis is a confident player -- he predicted going for 1,000 yards in his second season -- so he has high expectations for himself. The only people who expect more from Davis might be Fantasy owners and experts.
For the past two seasons, Davis has been billed as the next great tight end, and rightfully so, given his size (6-foot-3, 253 pounds), speed and ability. He also was drafted No. 6 overall in 2006 in the NFL Draft, which shows how much faith San Francisco has in his skills.
But for the past two years, Davis hasn't lived up to the hype. He missed six games as a rookie in 2006 due to a broken leg and finished with only 20 catches for 265 yards and three touchdowns. Then last year, in 14 games, Davis struggled with inconsistent quarterback play and had 52 catches for 509 yards and four touchdowns.
Now, forgive me for going to this tight end well once again, but Davis will be productive in 2008. I'm trusting that the Mike Martz lucky charms will rub off on him.
Martz has done more with less talent, and he should be able to bring out the best in Davis, especially since this is his third season in the NFL, when receivers tend to have breakout years. The problem for Davis is finding a quarterback to get him the ball.
Last year, Alex Smith struggled to connect with Davis before getting hurt. After Trent Dilfer failed as well, Shaun Hill took over, and Davis started to thrive.
It's unknown who will start for the 49ers this year, although count on Smith being No. 1 even though we like Hill better. But whoever starts for San Francisco has one priority -- get the ball to Davis.
Positives: With Martz taking over as coordinator, you can count on the passing game to improve. Remember, Martz turned Jon Kitna into a quality quarterback, so he should be able to do the same with Smith or Hill. And with no legitimate No. 1 wide receiver (Isaac Bruce, Bryant Johnson and Arnaz Battle are the leading candidates), expect Martz to depend on Davis. He finished last season strong when Hill took over and closed the year with 26 catches for 252 yards and three touchdowns in his final seven games. Not great stats, but good enough to be a low-end No. 1 Fantasy tight end.
Negatives: There are plenty of reasons to be concerned. In two seasons, Davis has yet to play 16 games. He's not exactly fragile yet, but he might miss a couple of games due to injury. Martz also has never had a dynamic tight end. He depends on receivers and running backs to catch passes. And if Smith starts over Hill, he and Davis haven't had the best rapport on the field. It's not like Smith would ignore Davis, but he doesn't always look for his talented tight end.
Outlook: Don't be afraid to draft Davis as your No. 1 tight end. He is projected to catch 55 passes for 633 yards and six touchdowns, but he could easily join the group of Antonio Gates, Kellen Winslow and Jason Witten as tight ends who play like wide receivers. With Martz at the helm, don't be surprised to see Davis line up outside a lot. This, hopefully, will be his breakout year.
Position battle: No. 1 quarterback
 | Alex Smith
Pro: When given a quality offensive coordinator (Norv Turner in 2006), Smith produced decent stats. So hopefully the addition of Mike Martz will help this year. Smith also has arguably his best collection of receivers since entering the NFL with Isaac Bruce, Bryant Johnson and Arnaz Battle and tight end Vernon Davis, and Frank Gore will also do well catching passes out of the backfield. The last time Smith played in a spread offense like this was in college when he thrived at Utah under former coach Urban Meyer.
Con: Smith's psyche could be shot after what happened last year when he suffered a shoulder injury and had a public spat with coach Mike Nolan. Shaun Hill outplayed Smith with the same talent last year. And even though Smith has more talent at receiver, they aren't exactly stars at their respective spots. He also still has to master Martz's offense, which isn't easy. |
 | Shaun Hill
Pro: Hill appeared in three games last year after sitting behind Smith and Trent Dilfer and passed for 501 yards, five touchdowns and one interception. In a dismal year, Hill was one of the few bright spots. He could be the next unknown quarterback to make a name for himself (Kurt Warner, Tony Romo and Derek Anderson to name a few). Hill connected well with Davis, which is a positive thing.
Con: Hill has a lot to overcome. Even though he played well last year, Martz is bringing in a new system. He will have to outplay Smith by a lot to win the job, which might be hard to do if Smith is healthy. The 49ers may value Hill more as a bullpen guy instead of a starter. | | Prediction: Smith is the favorite to win the job and will open the season as the starter. The 49ers have a lot invested in Smith since he was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2005 NFL Draft. Don't be surprised if Hill starts at some point this season, but don't plan on drafting Hill in any leagues. Consider Smith a decent sleeper in 2008 but go into the season with him as a No. 3 option. | |
