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Jamey Eisenberg

Week 1 Preseason Stockwatch

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


The NFL preseason is in full swing, and how certain players perform in these games could have significant impact on the upcoming Fantasy season. The arrows indicate which way a player's stock is heading, but you'll have to read what we have to say to know whether a player's preseason performance will impact his draft status in Fantasy leagues.

Matt Leinart, QB, Arizona
Leinart, who is coming off a broken collarbone in 2007 and had to watch Kurt Warner return as an elite Fantasy option, had a great preseason debut against New Orleans. Leinart was 7-of-8 passing for 91 yards and played well without Anquan Boldin (hamstring). You're going to draft Leinart as a No. 2 Fantasy quarterback with a late-round pick, but he has the potential to start for you by the end of the year. If he remains this efficient during the preseason, his value will continue to rise. As long as he can hold off Warner and get the ball to Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, Leinart has the chance for a big year.
Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seattle
Hasselbeck was already taking a hit with Deion Branch (knee) out, and now Bobby Engram (shoulder) is out for about two months. That leaves Hasselbeck with Nate Burleson and little else. He should still be drafted as a No. 1 starting option, but he could be replaced during the year with this meager receiving corps. If you draft Hasselbeck, make sure you also take a solid backup option within the next two rounds. He had a career year in 2007, but this year could end up as one of his worst due to his lack of weapons.
Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami
Brown didn't have a dazzling preseason debut against Tampa Bay with only three carries for 4 yards, but the fact that he was in the game helped his value. Brown is coming off a torn ACL last year and said after the game his rehab is going well. He will lose playing time to Ricky Williams, who also played well against the Bucs with five carries for 31 yards, but if Brown is 100 percent to start the season then he could be worth drafting as a low-end No. 2 option. Right now, consider Brown a No. 3 Fantasy running back worth a pick around Round 5.
Ryan Grant RB, Green Bay
Grant went from a Fantasy darling last season to a holdout, which kept him out of offseason workouts, to losing his star quarterback to now dealing with a hamstring injury. He is being drafted as a high-end No. 2 option, but Grant could end up as a bust this year. Without Brett Favre, Grant could now face plenty of eight-man fronts. And if his hamstring injury lingers, Grant could suffer. The safe bet is to let Grant fall to you in the middle of the second round or even the beginning of the third in all leagues. And you should plan on drafting Brandon Jackson as a No. 4 Fantasy running back for insurance.
Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee
Johnson's preseason debut against St. Louis is the kind of day you hope he has during the regular season. The rookie had six carries for 77 yards and a touchdown and caught one pass for 13 yards. The thought is Johnson is competing for playing time with LenDale White, but both running backs will probably share the field. Johnson will be used like Reggie Bush as a running back and receiver, and Johnson has speed to make plays. He's quickly becoming a preseason candidate for the best rookie this season, and he should be drafted as a No. 3 Fantasy option around Round 7 in all leagues.
Ahman Green, RB, Houston
Green had one play in the preseason opener against Denver, and his 5-yard catch turned into a groin injury. It's not expected to keep him out for long, but any injury for a 31-year-old running back with an injury history is never a good thing. Green had the potential to return as a Fantasy reserve worth using on bye weeks or as an injury replacement, which could still happen, but the safe bet is to let Green fall to you with a late-round pick. Chris Brown and rookie Steve Slaton are now intriguing Fantasy options with the extra carries they will garner with Green out.
Larry Johnson, RB, Kansas City
Johnson helped a lot of owners in keeper leagues let out a sigh of relief when he ran for 18 yards and a touchdown on seven carries against Chicago in the preseason opener. Johnson is coming back from a broken foot and has issues at quarterback and the offensive line, but if he can run with authority and show he's healthy, that will help his value. Johnson isn't going to return to his prominence from 2006, but he can get back to being a starting Fantasy option. Continue to draft Johnson at the end of the first round or the beginning of the second round and hope he gets some help on offense and stay healthy.
Willis McGahee, RB, Baltimore
McGahee could miss up to a month following knee surgery, which means he might not be ready to start the regular season. With poor offensive line play and an inexperienced quarterback, that's a bad combination. McGahee got out of Buffalo because of a similar situation, but the scenario in Baltimore doesn't look much better at this point. The safe bet is to draft McGahee in the third or fourth round and hope he returns as a No. 2 Fantasy option during the season. With McGahee out, target rookie Ray Rice in all leagues.
Marvin Harrison, WR, Indianapolis
Fantasy owners want to know what to expect from Harrison this year, and he gave them a glimpse in the preseason opener Carolina with three catches for 22 yards. Harrison isn't going to return to his previous dominance, but he does have potential to be a starting Fantasy option again. He has a stud quarterback in Peyton Manning and tremendous weapons around him with Reggie Wayne, Joseph Addai and Dallas Clark. Plan on drafting Harrison around Round 5 or 6 in all leagues and hope his injured knee from last year can hold up for a full 16 games again.
Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina
Stewart's toe injury was supposed to be a thing of the past, but it kept him out of the preseason opener against Indianapolis. Stewart has the chance to be the top rookie this year but not if he's hampered with the injury. With Stewart out, DeAngelo Williams took advantage and scored two touchdowns against the Colts. Stewart needs to get on the field and win the starting job otherwise his Fantasy value would suffer. For now, draft Stewart around the fourth round in all leagues and hope his toe injury doesn’t linger.
Other "Stock Up" players: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta; Jason Campbell, QB, Washington; Chad Pennington, QB, Miami; Jon Kitna, QB, Detroit; LaMont Jordan, RB, New England; Jacob Hester, RB, San Diego; Andre Hall, RB, Denver; Michael Bush, RB, Oakland; Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit; DeSean Jackson, WR, Philadelphia; Steve Breaston, WR, Arizona; Robert Meachem, WR, New Orleans; Tony Scheffler, TE, Denver

Other "Stock Down" players: Marc Bulger, QB, St. Louis; Trent Edwards, QB, Buffalo; Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore; Josh McCown, QB, Miami; Tatum Bell, RB, Detroit; Warrick Dunn, RB, Tampa Bay; Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, N.Y. Giants; Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis; Joey Galloway, WR, Tampa Bay; Ernest Wilford, WR, Miami; Plaxico Burress, WR, Giants; Braylon Edwards, WR, Cleveland

Do you have a player you're interested in finding out about from this preseason, or feel that we're missing someone from our Stockwatch? You can e-mail us at DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Stockwatch in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware we do not guarantee personal responses to all questions.

 
 
 
Player News
Rashard Mendenhall
PUP list in Mendenhall's future
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
2:15 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Mendenhall tore his right ACL in Week 17 of last season; recovery time for such injuries is anywhere from nine months to a year.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He'll likely get the first crack at starting in place of Mendenhall. There's still a lot of time between now and the regular season, but for now it's probably safe to expect Mendenhall to not be at even close to 100 percent to start the year, which will absolutely impact his Fantasy value. By August, you might be drafting Mendenhall as a middle- to late-round sleeper you'll have to sit on for a while. We'll keep you posted on Mendenhall as best as we can.

Randy Moss
Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
10:10 AM
News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to." NFL Network reports that teams have already been calling his agent following the news.
Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Calvin Johnson
Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
9:39 AM
News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.
Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

DeSean Jackson
Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
9:36 AM
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.
Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Isaac Redman
Redman in line to start for Steelers?
Isaac Redman, RB, PIT
2:23 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. That would open the door for Isaac Redman to be the starting rusher entering training camp.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He's also stepped up while working with Mendenhall and without him, though his one other start in 2011 was a flop (61 total yards, no touchdowns vs. Tennessee). By August we might recommend drafting Redman with a pick in Round 6 or 7 as a good early-season starting option with potential to be a quality Fantasy choice for the entire season. We'll see how the Steelers' run game shakes out.

Steve Slaton
Slaton, Dolphins likely parting ways
Steve Slaton, RB, MIA
12:56 PM
News: The Palm Beach Post reports that RB Steve Slaton is not expected to return to the Dolphins in 2012. Slaton played in three games this season with zero starts after being picked up on waivers before Week 4. He had 17 carries for 64 yards (3.8 average) with one touchdown and a long of 28 and also returned three kickoffs for 85 yards. Slaton was signed as insurance early in the season when both Reggie Bush (groin) and Daniel Thomas (hamstring) battled injuries.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Slaton plays in 2012, but he likely has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in all leagues on Draft Day.

Doug Baldwin
Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
11:14 AM
News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”
Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Hines Ward
Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
9:53 AM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on the future of Hines Ward. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported previously that if the Steelers did decide to release Ward, he was unaware of it. NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report. Ward's 2012 salary is high and he's expected to at least take a significant pay cut, if not get released altogether. Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Josh Morgan
Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
9:49 AM
News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

Jeremy Shockey
Panthers could bring back Shockey
Jeremy Shockey, TE, CAR
9:46 AM
News: The Charlotte Observer considers re-signing free agent TE Jeremy Shockey a "high priority" this offseason. Shockey was the No. 2 TE for the Panthers behind Greg Olsen, and he had a productive season when he caught 37 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns and missed only one game to injury.
Analysis: Though not the same receiver he was a decade ago, Shockey still is a dependable target, particularly in the red zone. If his asking price is too high, Panthers could turn to Gary Barnidge, who was having a great 2011 camp before breaking his ankle. Keep an eye on what happens with Shockey, and if he returns to the Panthers as expected he would be a No. 2 Fantasy TE on Draft Day worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

 
 
 
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