Draft prep: Super Bowl Fantasy hangover?

Editor's note: This is a series of 10 predictions of things that will happen in 2008 Fantasy Football leagues according to Senior Fantasy Writer Jamey Eisenberg

The New York Giants had a tremendous season in 2007, winning the Super Bowl and shocking the world with a stunning upset against the undefeated Patriots. There was plenty of reason to celebrate.

But before you get excited about the Giants becoming Fantasy superstars in 2008 following that postseason performance, think again. The safe bet is to lower your expectations of most Giants in Fantasy leagues this year.

Former Giants running back Joe Morris, who won a Super Bowl in 1986 and is one of the best players in team history, said in a recent interview that the Giants are going to face tough competition this year.

"Every team is going to give you their best because you're the Super Bowl champion," Morris said. "It's very difficult to repeat. It takes a special effort to win twice in a row. You're going to get everybody's best shot."

Morris said the Giants have plenty of talent but "the effort has to be there" to succeed. There also has to be health and living up to the hype.

That didn't happen for the two previous Super Bowl champions.

The Steelers won the Super Bowl in 2005, and the following year Ben Roethlisberger threw a career-high 23 interceptions. Hines Ward, the Super Bowl MVP, had his touchdown catches drop from 11 to six in 2006.

After the Colts won the Super Bowl, Peyton Manning threw his most interceptions (14) in five years, and his passing yards dropped from 4,397 to 4,040. And we know what happened to Marvin Harrison last year when the knee injury limited him to five games and the worst year of his career.

Plaxico Burress should be productive again in '08, but his health is always a concern. (US Presswire)

That's not a guarantee the Giants will falter this year, but playing an extra four games in the playoffs adds wear and tear. And playing in New York adds more pressure, Morris said.

It could be a rough year for Fantasy owners who end up or covet guys on Big Blue.

Quarterback

Eli Manning went from possibly the end of his tenure with the Giants to one of the greatest postseason runs in NFL history, finishing as the Super Bowl MVP. Manning had six touchdowns and one interception in the playoffs, and including the season finale against the Patriots, he had 10 touchdowns and two interceptions in the final five games.

That could lead to plenty of momentum in 2008, but Manning has never been great in the regular season. He's passed for at least 23 touchdowns the past three years, but he's also thrown at least 17 interceptions and never eclipsed 3,800 passing yards.

Now he has to live up to being that postseason passer in 2008 with Plaxico Burress (ankle) injured again and without Jeremy Shockey, who was traded to New Orleans.

"There is the ability to do it," Morris said of Manning picking up where he left off. "The problem is he's not going to sneak up on anybody. The expectation for him is going to be different now that he's the Super Bowl MVP. He's shown the ability to do it, but now his teammates have to step up also. He's going to need help. But I see a lot of good things for him in that offense."

Currently, Manning is being drafted in Round 8, according to his average draft position on CBSSports.com. He is the No. 12 quarterback drafted, which means most owners think of him as a starter, which is a mistake.

As a No. 2 Fantasy option, Manning is solid. But don't count of him playing like he did in December and January. His regular-season stats are a more realistic expectation, and that's how Manning will play in 2008.

Running back

Brandon Jacobs is a Giant worth drafting as a starter, especially since he's entering a contract year. But don't reach for Jacobs any higher than the fourth round, which is currently where he is being drafted at No. 44 overall -- a perfect spot as a No. 2 Fantasy option.

Last year, Jacobs missed time with a knee injury and was limited to rushing for 1,009 yards and four touchdowns in 11 games. He's a beast at 6-foot-4, 264 pounds, but his size and running style lead to injuries.

"He's a tough guy," Morris said. "He needs to stay healthy and stay on the field. He just has to run lower and take fewer hits. But he can make plays."

Jacobs also will lose carries to Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw, which will lower his value. And the safe pick is to take Ward ahead of Bradshaw as the handcuff option to Jacobs.

"We expect Ward to play well and Bradshaw to step up, too," GM Jerry Reese said. "We have three really good running backs and some young guys we like as well. You never can have enough running backs -- you could have three snaps and you could be three guys down. They run the ball a lot and get hit a lot, so it's good to have a good stable."

Bradshaw was the Giants leading rusher in the playoffs, but his offseason has been rough with a stint in jail for a probation violation. Ward also is dealing with a knee injury, but he filled in for Jacobs last year when he was hurt.

Ward also missed time with injuries last year, which means all the Giants running backs are flawed. And three players sharing the ball is never a good thing for Fantasy owners.

Wide receiver

Burress showed plenty of guts playing through an ankle injury last year. He still managed 70 catches for 1,025 yards and 12 touchdowns in the regular season and caught the winning touchdown in the Super Bowl.

But this year, Burress' ankle is bothering him again. And his contract situation has become messy, which makes you wonder if he'll play through the pain this year.

Burress should be drafted as a No. 2 Fantasy receiver. If you take him as a No. 1 option, you'll be disappointed, and he currently is the No. 12 overall receiver being taken in leagues on CBSSports.com, which is one or two spots too high.

"If I'm a cornerback, he scares the hell out of me," Morris said of Burress. "He can make you look bad. If he can stay healthy, he's going to be tremendous."

The Giants have some late-round Fantasy options at receiver in Amani Toomer, Steve Smith, Sinorice Moss and rookie Mario Manningham. David Tyree, who is battling a knee injury and trying to make the team, will be remembered for his circus catch in the Super Bowl, but he has minimal Fantasy value.

Toomer is a decent veteran to fill out the end of your bench, and Smith has upside. Morris also said Manningham "could be a steal" for the Giants.

"If you put it together, it could be the best receiving corps the Giants have ever had," Morris said.

But it all comes down to Burress staying healthy otherwise the rest of the receivers will have trouble making plays.

Tight end

Shockey was always one of the top options for Fantasy owners because Manning used his tight end often. Now, Kevin Boss will benefit from those passes, but is Boss ready for the role?

The Giants believe he is when they traded Shockey. But can you count on Boss as a starting Fantasy option?

Go into the season with Boss as a No. 2 Fantasy tight end, and his current draft position is No. 158 overall, which is a good spot for him.

"Jeremy Shockey was a great, great blocking tight end, and people don’t realize that," Morris said. "They are going to miss him."

Boss was part of a tremendous postseason run for the Giants. But despite the Super Bowl victory, the Giants still have a lot to prove to Fantasy owners in 2008.

Just because they won the NFL title doesn't mean they will help you win your Fantasy league.

"It's going to be an interesting year," Morris said. "They're loaded, but they have to come out and play."

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