When it comes to drafting players that Fantasy owners are counting on to start, you can never have too much information. Every year, extenuating circumstances change how owners look at prospective players. And just like the league itself come draft time, players fall off of personal Fantasy rank lists because of suspensions, holdouts, injuries and the like.
This year, four Top 75 Fantasy Football players (and three in the Top 30) make the list of players who carry some excess baggage with them into the 2008 season. What must a Fantasy owner be prepared for if they are going to consider one of these guys? Are they still worth drafting? That's what you need to decide.
Jackson is in the final year of his contract, meaning that he is eligible for free agency after the 2008 season. Usually, that is a signal that a player is ready to post huge numbers as he does everything in his power to stay on the field in an effort to earn as many guaranteed dollars as possible (click here for a list of such players this year).
However, Jackson is taking a different route, holding out for the duration of the Rams' training camp and refusing to report until he gets a new deal. The Rams have countered by telling Jackson's representatives that they won't negotiate until he reports. Neither side is blinking, although there have been reports of some small talk between both sides. CBSSports.com has received a "no comment" from a source close to Jackson on the matter.
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Steven Jackson should eventually report to camp, but the layoff will have implications.
(Getty Images)
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We know this: Money doesn't come to those who don't sign for it. Eventually, we expect Jackson to be back in the fold in St. Louis, be it with a new contract or willing to play out his current one and test free agency. Jackson does have the option to no-show until Week 10 to accrue credit for this season, but that's been threatened a lot over the years by numerous NFL players and followed through once. Don't expect that to happen here.
What might happen, however, is Jackson showing up in less-than-great shape and being forced into a reduced role for a couple of games. We can assume that Jackson is doing his best to stay in shape, but training camp gets players ready for the football season, and Jackson isn't experiencing that. The longer he holds out, the more likely he won't be effective early on this season because he'll be sharing the workload. And that could mean limited stats, especially considering the Rams' tough schedule out of the gate.
Look back to Larry Johnson's tumultuous 2007. Like Jackson now, Johnson held out through most of the Chiefs' preseason until he got paid, then came back to a team with a horrible opening schedule and a suspect offensive line. Jackson is in the exact same situation, although he has a much better passing game to help offset his work in the run attack. If his holdout lasts through the end of August, it's going to be tough to trust him like we have in past seasons.
Don't be surprised to see Jackson slip a little bit in drafts. Owners might opt for safer first-round choices like Joseph Addai, Clinton Portis, Frank Gore, Marion Barber or even Peyton Manning. The uncertainty of Jackson's first few games is worrysome, and it could be the downfall of many Fantasy Football owners this year.
Arthroscopic surgery on McGahee's left knee KO'd him for the preseason, but the Ravens insist that their star running back will play Week 1 vs. Cincinnati. Joining McGahee on the sideline this preseason are starting offensive tackles Jared Gaither and Adam Terry, both of whom have sprained ankles. Not only do the missing O-linemen create a problem for the running game, but they are also integral parts of Baltimore's pass attack, which unfortunately is more of a swipe than an attack, and that hurts any running back's effectiveness.
McGahee has two things going for himself. One, he's the obvious centerpiece of Baltimore's offense, coached by coordinator Cam Cameron. Even though Cameron struggled as a head coach last year, he has a solid history of turning running backs into stat mongrels, and McGahee should follow suit assuming his knee is healthy. Secondly, Baltimore's early-season schedule is a piece of cake save for a game here and there. You might not want McGahee after Week 9, but he should be serviceable once he gets back on the field.
We see McGahee's value slipping because of the knee surgery and the other personnel problems the Ravens have, but landing him to be a No. 2 Fantasy running back with a middle-to-late second-round pick (or even third-round pick) should pay off. It is recommended that you spend a middle-round pick on teammate Ray Rice as he would see any carries McGahee would miss, and also will get touches even when McGahee is healthy. Unfortunately, this does effectively mean picking two running backs for one spot if you end up with McGahee.
We're roping Marshall and Smith together because they have the same problem: They're going to be suspended to start the season. Marshall was slapped with a three-game ban because of violating the NFL's Personal Conduct Policy and Smith was levied a two-game suspension by the Panthers for punching a teammate during a training camp drill.
Neither guy is a Boy Scout, but they sure can play ball. And there's nothing stopping either player from doing so once they serve their suspensions. They aren't hurt, they aren't on offenses lacking a quarterback and they are both premier players who will see plenty of passes thrown their way.
The lone, but major, drawback to drafting either receiver is that you'll have to pick another receiver to get their reps while they sit out. But, thanks to some nifty research by us, that won't be a problem.
Here are some "disposable receivers" with a good early-season schedule that Fantasy owners can find with a middle- to late-round pick in their drafts:
If you end up drafting Smith or Marshall, pick a receiver from above to count on starting in his place. Then, once your starter's suspension is over, you could either keep the fill-in wideout or cut him for a player you've had your eye on sitting on the waiver wire.
Smith and Marshall's Fantasy stock has taken a hit, so you can find them about a round later in drafts than you normally would. That's excellent value for No. 1 Fantasy wideouts, so much so that it's worth thinking about drafting one or both -- if you're willing to make the commitment to them by drafting more receivers later on. Let the depth of roster space in your league determine that.
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