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Jamey Eisenberg

Draft prep: Running with the Class of '06

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Editor's note: This is a series of 10 predictions of things that will happen in 2008 Fantasy Football leagues according to Senior Fantasy Writer Jamey Eisenberg

The running back draft class of 2006 has seen its share of good times and bad for the first two years. There were breakouts and busts, injuries and impressive moments.

And now comes the standout year. In 2008, there are several running backs from this class poised for their best season.

That's going to make you as a Fantasy owner very happy.

Start at the top, where the first round in 2006 was Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney, DeAngelo Williams and Joseph Addai. There's not a lot of room for improvement with Addai, who has rushed for more than 1,000 yards his first two seasons and scored 15 touchdowns in 2007. He is a No. 1 Fantasy option and a top-five pick in most leagues.

But there is upside for Bush, who has been a disappointment so far for plenty of owners. As a rookie, Bush showed potential with more than 1,300 total yards and eight touchdowns, including 88 catches.

Instead of building on that in 2007, when some owners drafted Bush as a No. 1 Fantasy option, he took a step back and had less than 1,000 total yards and six touchdowns while dealing with a knee injury. Bush knows he has a lot to prove this year.

Bush's 2008 Fantasy Projections
Carries Yards TDs Rec. Yards TDs
152 592 4 75 586 3
Complete running back projections

"It's a learning experience," Bush said in a recent interview. "Anytime you are a rookie coming into this league and you're a first round draft pick, you have a lot of pressure on your shoulders. It's not an easy job. It's not an easy task. It's a learning experience, and you just try to do the best you can with it and try not to mess up."

Bush may never be a lead running back like Addai, but his versatility is what owners covet. And if Deuce McAllister can return from a knee injury or Pierre Thomas takes over the starting role, then Bush may pick up from his rookie year.

Don't be concerned that Bush is a bust. Draft him as a low-end No. 2 Fantasy running back worth a pick in Round 3 in all leagues and watch his skills flourish. He's still a focal point of the offense, and the Saints are going to put up plenty of points.

Maroney is another running back with a lot to prove. Last year, many Fantasy owners went into the draft with Maroney as a starting option after he rushed for 745 yards and scored seven touchdowns as a rookie.

Maroney's 2008 Fantasy Projections
Carries Yards TDs Rec. Yards TDs
243 1062 6 14 133 0
Complete running back projections

Then he was a disappointment because of a groin injury and the Patriots record-setting passing game, and he rushed for 835 yards and six touchdowns. He came on in the playoffs with 280 yards and three touchdowns in three games and plans on carrying that over to this year.

"That gave me a little bit more confidence in myself," Maroney said of the playoff performance in the Boston Herald. "Once I put my mind to it, I know I can be a good back in the NFL. It's just a point of being patient and just going out and doing what I do best. I'm almost there. I wish I was a little bit further, but I can't complain because I'm a lot further than I was last year. I'm not quite there yet, but I'm not far away from it."

There is some concern the Patriots will throw the ball again like 2007, and Maroney will lose carries to Sammy Morris and LaMont Jordan. But look for Maroney to carry the playoff performance into 2008, and he should be drafted as a low-end No. 2 Fantasy running back worth a pick in Round 3 in all leagues. He should have his first 1,000-yard season this year.

Williams has improved his stock recently with rookie Jonathan Stewart dealing with a lingering toe injury. That has helped Williams go from Fantasy reserve to a solid No. 3 option on the rise.

If Stewart is limited and Williams continues to get carries, he could be starting for your Fantasy team plenty this season. That's something Fantasy owners have waited for with Williams sitting behind DeShaun Foster the past two years. Williams only has 1,218 rushing yards and seven touchdowns in his career.

Williams' 2008 Fantasy Projections
Carries Yards TDs Rec. Yards TDs
193 826 4 31 261 2
Complete running back projections

Williams said in an interview with CBSSports.com that it takes time for running backs to get adjusted. He finally feels comfortable in his third season.

"Yes, definitely," Williams said. "Coming in your first year, you're a little wet behind the ears. Coming into my third year, it makes the reads easier for me. The game slows down in your head a lot and you know why people do things, the concepts of the defense and offense. And what's really funny is when a defense runs a blitz, you know what they're trying to stop and what they're giving up, and that's not something I had a good knowledge of my first and second year."

Maurice Jones-Drew enters his third season still sharing carries with Fred Taylor. (US Presswire)  
Maurice Jones-Drew enters his third season still sharing carries with Fred Taylor. (US Presswire)  
In the second round, LenDale White might face the most questions of this class. After rushing for 1,110 yards and scoring seven touchdowns last year, the Titans drafted Chris Johnson in the first round.

But White, who played last year on a torn meniscus in his knee, isn't concerned about Johnson taking away playing time. White said the two can work together, and he's right since Johnson is more of a scat back to White's bruising style.

White is being drafted as a No. 3 Fantasy option so far, but he will probably produce like a No. 2 running back by the end of the year. Titans coach Jeff Fisher said he expects White and Johnson to play in tandem, and he's counting on White again in 2008.

Another player from this class in a tandem is Maurice Jones-Drew, who has been great the past two years with more than 2,500 total yards and 24 touchdowns, but could get even better in 2008. Fred Taylor, who starts for the Jaguars ahead of Jones-Drew, is 32, and it will be hard for Taylor to sustain at his recent level for much longer.

If Taylor suffers a setback or gets hurt, Jones-Drew is ready. He could go from a No. 2 Fantasy option to an elite running back in 2008.

"I'm still learning," Jones-Drew said in the Florida Times-Union. "It's not like I know everything. I'm still learning different things every day. I think that is when you become your best. You think you know it all, but you can always learn something else."

The rest of the class has some other breakout stars as well. Jerious Norwood, a third-round pick, is worth drafting as a No. 4 Fantasy option and could shine in a tandem with Michael Turner.

Leon Washington (fourth-round pick) could be a viable reserve if something happens to Thomas Jones. And Brian Calhoun (third-round pick) and Jerome Harrison (fifth-round pick) have potential in Detroit and Cleveland, respectively, if they get playing time.

This is a solid group of running backs. And this should be the best year yet for the Class of 2006.

Do you have a Draft Prep question? Send your thoughts to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and we'll get to as many as we can. Be sure to put Attn: Draft Prep in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
Rashard Mendenhall
PUP list in Mendenhall's future
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
2:15 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Mendenhall tore his right ACL in Week 17 of last season; recovery time for such injuries is anywhere from nine months to a year.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He'll likely get the first crack at starting in place of Mendenhall. There's still a lot of time between now and the regular season, but for now it's probably safe to expect Mendenhall to not be at even close to 100 percent to start the year, which will absolutely impact his Fantasy value. By August, you might be drafting Mendenhall as a middle- to late-round sleeper you'll have to sit on for a while. We'll keep you posted on Mendenhall as best as we can.

Randy Moss
Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
10:10 AM
News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to."
Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Calvin Johnson
Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
9:39 AM
News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.
Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

DeSean Jackson
Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
9:36 AM
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.
Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Isaac Redman
Redman in line to start for Steelers?
Isaac Redman, RB, PIT
2:23 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. That would open the door for Isaac Redman to be the starting rusher entering training camp.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He's also stepped up while working with Mendenhall and without him, though his one other start in 2011 was a flop (61 total yards, no touchdowns vs. Tennessee). By August we might recommend drafting Redman with a pick in Round 6 or 7 as a good early-season starting option with potential to be a quality Fantasy choice for the entire season. We'll see how the Steelers' run game shakes out.

Steve Slaton
Slaton, Dolphins likely parting ways
Steve Slaton, RB, MIA
12:56 PM
News: The Palm Beach Post reports that RB Steve Slaton is not expected to return to the Dolphins in 2012. Slaton played in three games this season with zero starts after being picked up on waivers before Week 4. He had 17 carries for 64 yards (3.8 average) with one touchdown and a long of 28 and also returned three kickoffs for 85 yards. Slaton was signed as insurance early in the season when both Reggie Bush (groin) and Daniel Thomas (hamstring) battled injuries.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Slaton plays in 2012, but he likely has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in all leagues on Draft Day.

Doug Baldwin
Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
11:14 AM
News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”
Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Hines Ward
Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
9:53 AM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on the future of Hines Ward. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported previously that if the Steelers did decide to release Ward, he was unaware of it. NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report. Ward's 2012 salary is high and he's expected to at least take a significant pay cut, if not get released altogether. Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Josh Morgan
Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
9:49 AM
News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

Jeremy Shockey
Panthers could bring back Shockey
Jeremy Shockey, TE, CAR
9:46 AM
News: The Charlotte Observer considers re-signing free agent TE Jeremy Shockey a "high priority" this offseason. Shockey was the No. 2 TE for the Panthers behind Greg Olsen, and he had a productive season when he caught 37 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns and missed only one game to injury.
Analysis: Though not the same receiver he was a decade ago, Shockey still is a dependable target, particularly in the red zone. If his asking price is too high, Panthers could turn to Gary Barnidge, who was having a great 2011 camp before breaking his ankle. Keep an eye on what happens with Shockey, and if he returns to the Panthers as expected he would be a No. 2 Fantasy TE on Draft Day worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

 
 
 
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