Draft prep: Catching on in their third year

The third-year wide receiver theory is going to be tested this year. It's going to be hard for some of these receivers to improve on their first two seasons.

There are always going to be receivers who shine in their first or second year, but for the most part, receivers tend to have a breakout year in their third season. Braylon Edwards and Roddy White are the latest examples in 2007, but Chad Johnson, Steve Smith, Terrell Owens, Roy Williams and Lee Evans have also shined in their third year, among many others.

As some receivers have said, the third year is when they adjust to the speed of the game and fully understand how to read the defense and run routes. Jerry Rice, who set his career-high with 22 touchdowns in his third year in 1987 in only 12 games with San Francisco due to a strike-shortened season, said in his third year he finally "felt comfortable."

Assuming he can get on the same page with Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings should shine. (US Presswire)

"You start feeling like you belong," Rice said in an interview with CBSSports.com. "The first year, you're like a deer in headlights. You're trying to get used to playing with all those great players. The second year, you feel more at home, but you're still making adjustments. The third year, for me, I finally knew what to do."

The 2006 class of receivers is impressive, but the top players coming into this year have already had standout seasons. It's hard to imagine Marques Colston, Greg Jennings and Santonio Holmes getting that much better, and Brandon Marshall will likely regress this year due to his three-game suspension.

The one thing these receivers can hope for is enhancing their game, and Rice said that is still possible.

"It's all a learning process," Rice said. "In the third year, you can tell if a player is going to be an exceptional football player. That's when the mental skills start to match up with the physical attributes."

Colston is a No. 1 Fantasy option worth a pick in Round 3 in all leagues. He is one of the rare receivers who established himself as a rookie and just continues to get better each year with 168 catches for 2,240 and 19 touchdowns in his career.

He didn't have to wait until his third season.

"I love big Marques," Rice said. "He's the big play guy in New Orleans right now. He's proven he can be great with Drew Brees."

Jennings is going through a transition in Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers starting. Jennings has improved in his first two seasons but can still get better.

Although he had 12 touchdowns last year, which will be hard to duplicate, he only had 53 catches and 920 yards. Those stats should go up, which is why Jennings remains a No. 2 Fantasy option worth a pick around Round 5. He and Rodgers will develop a rapport -- that is if Rodgers knows what's good for him.

"He's hungry," Rice said. "He wants to be productive. He can feel the tide changing in Green Bay, with Donald Driver getting older. Greg Jennings might be the guy there as soon as (this) year."

Holmes has the most upside of the established group. He played well in 2007 with 52 catches for 942 yards and eight touchdowns but is on the verge of a potential breakout year, which is why he's a No. 2 Fantasy receiver worth a pick around Round 5.

Holmes has been regarded as the deep threat in Pittsburgh, but he should be able to become a more all-around receiver this year. He doesn't think he's ready to be called the No. 1 receiver for the Steelers, but Holmes could pass Hines Ward in that regard in 2008.

"My feelings are that I'm the No. 1 target on deep passes," Holmes said in an interview with CBSSports.com. "Hines is still the No. 1 receiver until he hangs up his cleats. The offense runs through him. As receivers, we ask him for guidance. He's our No. 1 receiver, and he's our leader."

Holmes said he can see a difference in his game entering his third year.

"I've learned how to produce better and be more productive on the field," Holmes said. "I know I don't have to go all out on every play. I'm becoming a better blocker. I know I have to become a better teammate. I'm learning to help the younger guys. It's all a process."

Marshall should develop that attitude if he hasn't already. A series of off-field incidents led to Marshall being suspended for three games. He had 102 catches for 1,325 yards and seven touchdowns last year and was poised to become a No. 1 Fantasy option this year. But instead of celebrating Marshall in his third year, he's a potential bust because of the time he will miss.

Now you should consider Marshall a low-end No. 2 option worth a pick in Round 6.

For Fantasy owners looking for a sleeper or two from the receiver class of 2006, there are a few players to target with a potential late-round pick. Chad Jackson, Derek Hagan and Ben Obomanu could make an impact this year, with Jackson likely the No. 4 receiver for the Patriots and Hagan and Obomanu getting the chance to start this year for Miami and Seattle, respectively.

Jackson has dealt with injuries his first two years and has been a disappointment since he was a second-round pick in 2006 and the second receiver taken in the draft. He said in a recent interview with CBSSports.com that he is ready to go.

"I'm more mature," Jackson said. "I'm finally learning everything and getting acclimated in the NFL. If I can continue to work hard, then everything will start to go my way."

There's also Devin Hester, who is making the transition from return specialist to receiver. He had 20 catches for 299 yards and two touchdowns last year, but those stats will increase, which makes Hester worth a late-round flier.

In deep Fantasy leagues, Sinorice Moss, Travis Wilson, Maurice Stovall, Brad Smith, Jason Avant, Demetrius Williams and Jeff Webb might make some plays but aren't worth drafting at this time. And don't get overexcited after Domenik Hixon scored two touchdowns against Cleveland in a preseason game, even though Giants general manager Jerry Reese likes what Hixon can do.

This year's group of third-year receivers won't produce many breakout players. Unfortunately for Fantasy owners, they arrived a year or two too soon.

Members of the Class of 2006 to watch

Jason Avant, Philadelphia
2006: Seven catches, 68 yards, one touchdown
2007: 23 catches, 267 yards, two touchdowns
2008 projection: 20 catches, 239 yards, two touchdowns
Third-year outlook: The Eagles are looking for playmakers, and Avant could help if given an opportunity. He is currently low on the depth chart behind Kevin Curtis, Reggie Brown and DeSean Jackson, so it might be tough for Avant to see the field. He's not worth drafting in Fantasy leagues at this time, but keep an eye on his development this year.

Marques Colston, New Orleans
2006: 70 catches, 1,038 yards, eight touchdowns
2007: 98 catches, 1,202 yards, 11 touchdowns
2008 projection: 101 catches, 1,277 yards, 10 touchdowns
Third-year outlook: Colston has become one of the elite receivers in the NFL, worth a pick in Round 3 in all Fantasy leagues as a No. 1 option. He should see less coverage with the addition of Jeremy Shockey, but Colston has been bothered by a knee injury and loses the motivation of playing for a contract after signing a deal this offseason. Still, he has a stud quarterback in Drew Brees, who knows how to get Colston the ball.

Derek Hagan, Miami
2006: 21 catches, 221 yards, one touchdown
2007: 29 catches, 373 yards, two touchdowns
2008 projection: 39 catches, 464 yards, two touchdowns
Third-year outlook: Hagan has played his way into the starting lineup ahead of free-agent pickup Ernest Wilford during training camp. With the addition of Chad Pennington, the Dolphins now have a passing game, which should help Hagan's development. Hagan isn't going to start for most Fantasy owners, but in deep leagues, he is worth a late-round pick. As long as he continues to start in Miami, he will have the chance to make plays.

Devin Hester, Chicago
2006: No catches
2007: 20 catches, 299 yards, two touchdowns
2008 projection: 39 catches, 553 yards, four touchdowns
Third-year outlook: Hester probably isn't going to catch many passes, but he could be a good source of touchdowns if newly-named starter Kyle Orton can throw the deep ball with accuracy. Hester should definitely be drafted in most leagues with a late-round flier. There is a lot of upside with Hester if he can figure out how to run routes and find a role in the offense besides just running fly patterns.

Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh
2006: 49 catches, 824 yards, two touchdowns
2007: 52 catches, 942 yards, eight touchdowns
2008 projection: 60 catches, 904 yards, six touchdowns
Third-year outlook: This could be the year when Holmes passes Hines Ward as the Steelers' No. 1 receiver. Holmes is developing into a complete receiver, which should help his catches and yards increase. If the Steelers throw as much as they did in 2007, that will benefit Holmes this year. He's worth drafting as a No. 2 Fantasy option with a pick around Round 5 in all leagues.

Chad Jackson, New England
2006: 13 catches, 152 yards, three touchdowns
2007: No catches
2008 projection: 22 catches, 303 yards, two touchdowns
Third-year outlook: Jackson has dealt with injuries his first two seasons. He comes into this year trying to earn playing time with Jabar Gaffney and Kelley Washington. Jackson will probably be the No. 4 receiver for the Patriots, and if he can get on the field, he should make plays. Jackson is worth drafting with a late-round pick in deep Fantasy leagues at this time. Hopefully, Tom Brady will get him the ball.

Greg Jennings, Green Bay
2006: 45 catches, 632 yards, three touchdowns
2007: 53 catches, 920 yards, 12 touchdowns
2008 projection: 59 catches, 891 yards, eight touchdowns
Third-year outlook: Jennings emerged as a go-to receiver for Brett Favre last year, but now Favre is with the Jets. Aaron Rodgers will make sure to look for Jennings as the new starter, so Jennings should continue to develop. It's unlikely Jennings' touchdowns will increase this year, but he should do better in catches and yards. He's worth drafting as a No. 2 Fantasy option with a pick around Round 5 in all leagues.

Brandon Marshall, Denver
2006: 20 catches, 309 yards, two touchdowns
2007: 102 catches, 1,325 yards, seven touchdowns
2008 projection: 70 catches, 936 yards, six touchdowns
Third-year outlook: Marshall's three-game suspension has lowered his Fantasy value and won't allow him to blossom into the third-year star he should have become. He should still play well in 13 games, but his stats won't represent his talent. Plan on drafting Marshall a low-end No. 2 option worth a pick in Round 6. Without the suspension, Marshall would have been considered a No. 1 Fantasy option this year.

Ben Obomanu, Seattle
2006: No catches
2007: 12 catches, 180 yards, one touchdown
2008 projection: 26 catches, 303 yards, three touchdowns
Third-year outlook: Injuries to Deion Branch (knee) and Bobby Engram (shoulder) have opened an opportunity for Obomanu to make plays. He's expected to start opposite Nate Burleson, and Matt Hasselbeck should look in Obomanu's direction often in 2008. Obomanu is worth drafting with a late-round pick in deep Fantasy leagues, and he could be a hot commodity off the waiver wire in most standard formats if he develops as expected.

Brad Smith, New York Jets
2006: Nine catches, 61 yards, no touchdowns
2007: 32 catches, 325 yards, two touchdowns
2008 projection: 25 catches, 311 yards, two touchdowns
Third-year outlook: Smith is still learning how to play receiver after playing quarterback in college. He is expected to be the No. 3 receiver for the Jets behind Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery. With Brett Favre at quarterback, he could make Smith into a decent Fantasy option. Remember, Favre only has one favorite target -- the receiver who is open. If it's Smith, he could be worth a late-round flier in deep Fantasy leagues.

Maurice Stovall, Tampa Bay
2006: Seven catches, 102 yards, no touchdowns
2007: 10 catches, 86 yards, one touchdown
2008 projection: 18 catches, 199 yards, one touchdown
Third-year outlook: Stovall had a chance for a better outlook this year prior to Antonio Bryant playing well in training camp. Still, Joey Galloway will be 37 in November and is dealing with a groin injury in training camp, Bryant was out of the NFL last year and Ike Hilliard isn't exactly a great playmaker. Stovall could make an impact this year if given playing time and is worth keeping an eye on as a possible free agent pickup in 2008.

Jeff Webb, Kansas City
2006: Three catches, 23 yards, no touchdowns
2007: 28 catches, 313 yards, one touchdown
2008 projection: 32 catches, 349 yards, two touchdowns
Third-year outlook: Webb has had trouble beating out Devard Darling and Will Franklin for playing time, which is a bad sign. But since the Chiefs are looking for help at receiver, Webb could play a role in 2008. He's not worth drafting in any leagues, but if he can get on the field and Brodie Croyle can get him the ball, then add Webb off the waiver wire.

Previous third-year breakouts (and team they were on)

Plaxico Burress, Pittsburgh
Rookie year (2000): 22 catches, 273 yards, no touchdowns
Second year (2001): 66 catches, 1,008 yards, six touchdowns
Third year (2002): 78 catches, 1,325 yards, seven touchdowns

Braylon Edwards, Cleveland
Rookie year (2005): 32 catches, 512 yards, three touchdowns
Second year (2006): 61 catches, 884 yards, six touchdowns
Third year (2007): 80 catches, 1,289 yards, 16 touchdowns

Lee Evans, Buffalo
Rookie year (2004): 48 catches, 843 yards, nine touchdowns
Second year (2005): 48 catches, 743 yards, seven touchdowns
Third year (2006): 82 catches, 1,292 yards, eight touchdowns

Chad Johnson, Cincinnati
Rookie year (2001): 28 catches, 329 yards, one touchdown
Second year (2002): 69 catches, 1,166 yards, five touchdowns
Third year (2003): 90 catches, 1,355 yards, 10 touchdowns

Terrell Owens, San Francisco
Rookie year (1996): 35 catches, 520 yards, four touchdowns
Second year (1997): 60 catches, 936 yards, eight touchdowns
Third year (1998): 67 catches, 1,097 yards, 14 touchdowns

Jerry Rice, San Francisco
Rookie year (1985): 49 catches, 927 yards, three touchdowns
Second year (1986): 86 catches, 1,570 yards, 15 touchdowns
Third year (1987): 65 catches, 1,078 yards, 22 touchdowns

Steve Smith, Carolina
Rookie year (2001): 10 catches, 154 yards, no touchdowns
Second year (2002): 54 catches, 872 yards, three touchdowns
Third year (2003): 88 catches, 1,110 yards, seven touchdowns

Javon Walker, Green Bay
Rookie year (2002): 23 catches, 319 yards, one touchdown
Second year (2003): 41 catches, 716 yards, nine touchdowns
Third year (2004): 89 catches, 1,382 yards, 12 touchdowns

Roddy White, Atlanta
Rookie year (2005): 29 catches, 446 yards, three touchdowns
Second year (2006): 30 catches, 506 yards, no touchdowns
Third year (2007): 83 catches, 1,202 yards, six touchdowns

Roy Williams, Detroit
Rookie year (2004): 54 catches, 817 yard, eight touchdowns
Second year (2005): 45 catches, 687 yards, eight touchdowns
Third year (2006): 82 catches, 1,310 yards, seven touchdowns

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