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Dave Richard

Week 2 Preseason Stockwatch

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


The NFL preseason is in full swing, and how certain players perform in these games could have significant impact on the upcoming Fantasy season. The arrows indicate which way a player's stock is heading, but you'll have to read what we have to say to know whether a player's preseason performance will impact his draft status in Fantasy leagues.

Brett Favre, QB, N.Y. Jets
The old 'Brett Favre Watch' was on his status with the Packers. The new 'Brett Favre Watch' is how he's doing with the Jets. In his first preseason game vs. the Redskins, he completed 5-of-6 passes (the incompletion was a drop) for 48 yards with a touchdown dart to rookie tight end Dustin Keller. Favre is still learning the Jets' playbook, but the combination of his talent with the personnel around him is making Fantasy owners believe in the 18-year veteran. Still a startable Fantasy quarterback, quality play this preseason will only make him look more desirable. Right now, he's a middle-round pick.
Marc Bulger, QB, St. Louis
Bulger got knocked around in the Rams' second preseason game vs. San Diego and left after getting hit on his throwing shoulder. True, Bulger will be fine in the long run, but he has been sacked three times (fumbling twice) in eight offensive series. That offensive line is still a liability, and it lost two reserve tackles to season-ending injuries already. What's more, Bulger has completed just 10-of-23 passes for 85 yards with three interceptions (again, in eight offensive series). With Torry Holt and little else to throw to and with no Steven Jackson behind him (for now), Bulger's Fantasy stock is really low. He's bordering on No. 2 quarterback territory.
DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina
We got an eyeful of Williams up close in Philadelphia and loved what we saw: A speedy rusher playing in every possible scenario with the first-team offense. With rookie Jonathan Stewart slowed by a sore toe and admitting that he's waiting for the game to come to him, Williams has a golden path to not only Carolina's starting job, but also posting plenty of stats each week. Carolina's offensive line is massive, and their passing game will be formidable enough that Williams won't be corraled by eight defenders in the box. At worst, Williams will begin the year getting the majority of the work for Carolina, and he won't give up the job if he performs well. We like him as a low-end No. 2/top-end No. 3 Fantasy running back worth a pick between Rounds 7 and 8.
Jamal Lewis, RB, Cleveland
Lewis hasn't played much this preseason, but there's cause for concern when he's totaled 24 rush yards on nine carries (2.7 avg.) with a 4-yard reception. Lewis was strong at the start of the preseason last year (11 carries, 48 yards), and it was a sign of things to come. Even with a good offensive line, Lewis hasn't gotten it done so far. Lewis has a lot of skeptics out there following his solid contract year and subsequent extension. We still think he can charge his way to 1,000 yards on the ground with some nice touchdowns, but don't be surprised to see him slip in drafts. He's fine as a No. 2 running back.
Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit
Remember how much hype Johnson had when he came out of Georgia Tech? The Lions (and everyone else) fawned over his athleticism, size, speed and hands. Fantasy owners wound up drafting him with a relatively high pick as a rookie, and they watched him begin to meet expectations until a back injury hampered him. This preseason, Johnson is at it again, averaging 22.0 yards per catch (154 yards on seven grabs) and has the full faith and backing of quarterback Jon Kitna. Yes, the Lions want to run the ball more, and yes, the Lions have Roy Williams playing on the opposite side. But it's clear that Johnson's potential has no ceiling so long as he's healthy. He's creeping past Williams in Fantasy drafts and might inch close to being a low-end No. 1 wideout if he continues this torrid pace.
Chad Johnson, WR, Cincinnati
The outspoken wide receiver got a taste of karma when he hurt his shoulder going up for a pass in the second week of the preseason, separating it and costing him some preseason reps. The Bengals may say they are not worried about Johnson's health, but the club did run out and re-sign former headache Chris Henry. Whether it was done to support a depleted unit or not, speculation is that Johnson's shoulder might not be ready to go for the start of the season. When you tack on the Bengals' slow start out of the gate this preseason and the likelihood that Johnson won't put up consistent production (150 yards one week, 35 the next), he's more appealing as a No. 2 receiving option.
Jay Cutler, QB, Denver
The reviews have been very positive for Cutler out of Denver, including glowing reviews from several Cowboys defenders following their practices and their most recent preseason game. Cutler has completed 24-of-30 passes this preseason for 237 yards and a touchdown. Denver's young gunslinger has not only connected with massive wideout Brandon Marshall but has also made use of rookie Eddie Royal, who has the makings of a sleeper pick. Cutler's stats may come out of the gate slow because of Marshall's suspension, but he's got a shot at leapfrogging several low-end Fantasy No. 1 quarterbacks en route to several 250-yard performances. He's a pretty solid "consolation prize" with a mid-round pick in drafts for those owners who miss on a stud passer.
Vince Young, QB, Tennessee
Young has all sorts of potential when you consider his new short-area targets in tight end Alge Crumpler, running back Chris Johnson and wide receiver Justin McCareins. But so far he's looked lost and tenative early on, totaling just 54 yards on 7-of-19 passing. Young was nothing more than a No. 2 Fantasy passer to begin with, but anyone with visions of him turning the corner and becoming a huge stat machine in 2008 needs to reconsider. And if Young is expected to post minimal numbers, then what does that mean for his receiving corps?
Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta
Turner only had four carries against the Colts in his second preseason game. Two went for zero yards, two totaled 113 yards (50, 63). While it's a little disconcerning that he was caught from behind on both of his long runs, it's got to be a positive both for him and for his offensive line that they were able to open holes for him against the Colts' Bob Sanders-less first-string defense. Turner's 22 yards on five carries in his first preseason game is nothing to sneeze at, either. Perhaps he'll wind up being a useful No. 2 rushing option after all.
Rudi Johnson, RB, Cincinnati
Two preseason games down and zero reps for Johnson, who is back to nursing a hamstring injury. When have we seen this before? Johnson struggled for much of 2007 with a hamstring problem and is back to being an injury-marred rusher. This time, the Bengals are prepared with Kenny Watson (100 total yards) and Chris Perry (69 total yards, TD) ready to take over for Johnson if his leg can't hold up (or at least take some carries off his plate). Johnson is creeping up on 29 years of age, and while the club says Johnson is running fine in practice, we want to see it on the field, especially behind the Bengals' suspect offensive line. He's falling as a low-end No. 3 option, though he'd be more than that if his leg would get healthy already.
Other "Stock Up" players: Jerricho Cotchery, WR, N.Y. Jets; Tim Hightower, RB, Arizona; Domenik Hixon, WR, N.Y. Giants; Jon Kitna, QB, Detroit; DeSean Jackson, WR, Philadelphia; J.T. O'Sullivan, QB, San Francisco; Chad Pennington, QB, Miami; Eddie Royal, WR, Denver; Steve Slaton, RB, Houston

Other "Stock Down" players: Marty Booker, WR, Chicago; Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami; Andre Caldwell, WR, Cincinnati; Justin Fargas, RB, Oakland; Ahman Green, RB, Houston; Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis; Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay; JaMarcus Russell, QB, Oakland

Do you have a player you're interested in finding out about from this preseason, or feel that we're missing someone from our Stockwatch? You can e-mail us at DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Stockwatch in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware we do not guarantee personal responses to all questions.

 
 
 
Player News
Rashard Mendenhall
PUP list in Mendenhall's future
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
2:15 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Mendenhall tore his right ACL in Week 17 of last season; recovery time for such injuries is anywhere from nine months to a year.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He'll likely get the first crack at starting in place of Mendenhall. There's still a lot of time between now and the regular season, but for now it's probably safe to expect Mendenhall to not be at even close to 100 percent to start the year, which will absolutely impact his Fantasy value. By August, you might be drafting Mendenhall as a middle- to late-round sleeper you'll have to sit on for a while. We'll keep you posted on Mendenhall as best as we can.

Randy Moss
Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
10:10 AM
News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to." NFL Network reports that teams have already been calling his agent following the news.
Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Calvin Johnson
Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
9:39 AM
News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.
Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

DeSean Jackson
Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
9:36 AM
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.
Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Isaac Redman
Redman in line to start for Steelers?
Isaac Redman, RB, PIT
2:23 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. That would open the door for Isaac Redman to be the starting rusher entering training camp.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He's also stepped up while working with Mendenhall and without him, though his one other start in 2011 was a flop (61 total yards, no touchdowns vs. Tennessee). By August we might recommend drafting Redman with a pick in Round 6 or 7 as a good early-season starting option with potential to be a quality Fantasy choice for the entire season. We'll see how the Steelers' run game shakes out.

Steve Slaton
Slaton, Dolphins likely parting ways
Steve Slaton, RB, MIA
12:56 PM
News: The Palm Beach Post reports that RB Steve Slaton is not expected to return to the Dolphins in 2012. Slaton played in three games this season with zero starts after being picked up on waivers before Week 4. He had 17 carries for 64 yards (3.8 average) with one touchdown and a long of 28 and also returned three kickoffs for 85 yards. Slaton was signed as insurance early in the season when both Reggie Bush (groin) and Daniel Thomas (hamstring) battled injuries.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Slaton plays in 2012, but he likely has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in all leagues on Draft Day.

Doug Baldwin
Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
11:14 AM
News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”
Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Hines Ward
Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
9:53 AM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on the future of Hines Ward. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported previously that if the Steelers did decide to release Ward, he was unaware of it. NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report. Ward's 2012 salary is high and he's expected to at least take a significant pay cut, if not get released altogether. Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Josh Morgan
Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
9:49 AM
News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

Jeremy Shockey
Panthers could bring back Shockey
Jeremy Shockey, TE, CAR
9:46 AM
News: The Charlotte Observer considers re-signing free agent TE Jeremy Shockey a "high priority" this offseason. Shockey was the No. 2 TE for the Panthers behind Greg Olsen, and he had a productive season when he caught 37 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns and missed only one game to injury.
Analysis: Though not the same receiver he was a decade ago, Shockey still is a dependable target, particularly in the red zone. If his asking price is too high, Panthers could turn to Gary Barnidge, who was having a great 2011 camp before breaking his ankle. Keep an eye on what happens with Shockey, and if he returns to the Panthers as expected he would be a No. 2 Fantasy TE on Draft Day worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

 
 
 
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