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Dave Richard

Four Downs: Brady's big boo boo

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


It might have been a week ago, it might have been a month ago, but for one person in every Fantasy league, Tom Brady was taken, likely with a first-round pick.

Less than one quarter into the regular season, he was gone. Chiefs safety Bernard Pollard came into the pocket on a blitz and dove low for Brady, bending his left knee awkwardly. Brady fell to the ground, clutched his knee and, according to Pollard, was screaming in pain. The two-time Super Bowl MVP was helped off the field where he gently walked into the locker room, and wasn't seen again.

Do you think Matt Cassel will be a hot pickup this week? (AP)  
Do you think Matt Cassel will be a hot pickup this week? (AP)  
NFL seasons, and thus Fantasy seasons, can really change this quickly.

Three reports, including one from CBSSports.com national columnist Mike Freeman, surfaced Sunday night saying that Brady had a serious knee injury, likely involving ligament damage. While no one wants to even speculate on how long Brady will be sidelined for, everyone is expecting the worst: Out for the season.

After years of covering the league, we know that the Patriots detest revealing injury information. In fact, unless Brady is unequivocally out for the season, they won't say anything they don't have to.

Enter Matt Cassel. The Patriots backup quarterback was a candidate to be cut no less than 10 days ago following a subpar preseason in which he took the overwhelming majority of the quarterback reps. Now, he's in the "Brady" position -- in more ways than one. Like Brady did seven years ago, Cassel will go under center while the starter is sidelined.

And, he's not going to be bad at all.

Let's start with the basics: Cassel is part of a very solid offense. They've got a great offensive line and extremely capable receivers in Randy Moss and Wes Welker. They've got a nice corps of running backs, each one as reliable to pound out strong yards. The Patriots tirelessly game plan every week for their opponents and come up winners more often than not. And they have one of the most friendly schedules this season.

What about Cassel's skills? Well, if you're judging by his Week 1 game against a decent defense in the Chiefs, you could say that he's not only capable, but also expected to lead the charge. The Patriots' game plan might have changed slightly with Cassel under center as they called 20 run plays after Cassel came into the game. They exceeded that mark in pass calls with 21 (Cassel threw 18 times and scrambled three times; he kneeled once). Even on their final drive, with a four-point lead, they called four running plays and four pass plays.

"I thought he handled the team well and made some accurate throws," head coach Bill Belichick said of his new starting quarterback. "I thought overall, he threw the ball pretty well. He managed the team well. We didn't have a lot of misaligned plays and miscommunications. There is a lot of room for improvement but I thought he stepped in and did a good job."

PaYds PaTD PaInt 300yd RuYds RuTD
Matt Cassel 3155 23 19 2 185 1

So here's the deal: If you own Brady, be prepared to part ways with him, but don't pull the trigger until there's an official word -- just in case. Instead, sacrifice someone else on your roster and put in a waiver claim for Cassel. Remember, a quarterback throwing to Randy Moss is better than a quarterback who went undrafted.

What about the rest of the Patriots' players? Dial expectations down a notch, but that's it. Moss remains a must-start, especially after seeing Cassel target him four times and connect three times. Welker was also targeted five times by Cassel and should continue to be a short-area target. Be careful with any other receiver in New England, though Benjamin Watson might turn into a regular target once he gets healthy.

Also expect the Patriots to become a little more balanced to take some pressure off of Cassel. Does that mean more Laurence Maroney? Sure, but if there's one thing that's clear, it's that the Patriots aren't going to let Maroney do all the heavy lifting as Sammy Morris had just as many carries and a red-zone touchdown run. They'll probably rotate for the foreseeable future, making them both No. 3 Fantasy running backs and aggravating to own.

Finally, keep this in mind when thinking about the Patriots' offense: With Brady under center, they had the most prolific passing game the league had ever seen last season. Cassel might be good, but he's not Brady.

Of course, we said the same thing about Brady when Drew Bledsoe got hurt in 2001.

McNabb was amazing. Now trade him.

In one of the stories we penned this week, we suggested that Donovan McNabb might have his best game of the season in the Eagles' home opener against the defensively inept Rams.

Might be the understatement of the week.

With two starting receivers out, McNabb found a way to not only throw three touchdowns and for 361 yards, but also turn a rookie wide out and two former undrafted players into 100-yard receivers in the same game.

Three 100-yard receivers. When's the last time you saw that?

And when was the last time we saw McNabb have such a studly performance? That question is easier to answer: Last year vs. Detroit, when he had 381 yards passing and four touchdowns.

Here's some food for thought: McNabb had a monster game in Week 1, the same week Brady went down with a major knee injury. Perhaps now is a time for McNabb and Brady owners to come together on a deal.

For McNabb owners, it's a no-brainer. Cashing in on what looks like the Eagles' easiest matchup of the year in exchange for a quality player makes a ton of sense assuming that McNabb's Fantasy owners have a good backup that could start (most of them should). And Brady owners ... well, they need a lot of help at quarterback now.

McNabb has an excellent rookie wideout in DeSean Jackson, and the corps will get deeper when Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown get healthy and join Hank Baskett and Greg Lewis. Plus, McNabb gets a ton of cheap yardage when he throws to Brian Westbrook.

Parker's day slightly better than Brady's

When anyone asked us about Willie Parker this offseason, we said he was a yardage machine not expected to produce many touchdowns, though we did concede he'd top the two he scored in 2007.

Well, he did that already. In one game.

Parker overmatched the Texans in the Steelers' home opener with a 25-carry, 138-yard performance with three rushing touchdowns, all scored from inside the Texans 20-yard line.

"People were wondering, maybe even some of his teammates, how he was going to come back from a leg injury like that," quarterback Ben Roethlisberger said. "It was fun to watch Willie Parker be Willie Parker."

As for that rookie who was supposed to be the Steelers' goal-line back, Rashard Mendenhall got all of his 10 carries in the second half, most in the fourth quarter when the game was pretty much over.

Parker was one of those No. 3 running backs at draft time that had the upside to play as a No. 1. For one week, it certainly looks like he'll be able to be counted on week in and week out.

And get him ready for Week 2 when he plays at the Browns, who let Marion Barber and Felix Jones run for 142 yards and three touchdowns this week.

And when 138 yards and three touchdowns isn't enough ...

Consider the case of Michael Turner. For his entire career, he had been an understudy to LaDainian Tomlinson in San Diego. At the first chance he gets, he bolts from under LT's shadow for a starting job in Atlanta. The Falcons, unlike the Chargers, were believed to be potentially the worst offense in the league this season, especially with a rookie left tackle and rookie quarterback.

Instead, Turner turned logic on its rear. Against a Lions defense that apparently didn't get the memo about Turner signing with the Falcons, Atlanta's prized rusher churned for 220 yards on 22 carries -- an average of 10 yards a clip -- with two touchdowns.

Is this the result of Turner being an amazing running back, or the Lions' run defense being absolutely awful? Probably both, because not only did Turner have a fantastic game -- and has a history of long runs -- but teammate Jerious Norwood had 93 rush yards and a rushing touchdown to go with Turner's huge day.

I doubt Turner will have another 220-yard rushing game -- maybe he's a guy to consider dealing -- but he should have a productive season. Even if he can't get 10 yards per carry, he should still give some good efforts as the obvious centerpiece of the Falcons offense.

As for the Lions, they play the Packers in Week 2. Ryan Grant owners, get ready.

And wow, not one mention of that new Jet quarterback.

What are your four downs from this week? See anything that jumped off the screen? Let us know -- email us at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Four Downs in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
Rashard Mendenhall
PUP list in Mendenhall's future
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
2:15 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Mendenhall tore his right ACL in Week 17 of last season; recovery time for such injuries is anywhere from nine months to a year.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He'll likely get the first crack at starting in place of Mendenhall. There's still a lot of time between now and the regular season, but for now it's probably safe to expect Mendenhall to not be at even close to 100 percent to start the year, which will absolutely impact his Fantasy value. By August, you might be drafting Mendenhall as a middle- to late-round sleeper you'll have to sit on for a while. We'll keep you posted on Mendenhall as best as we can.

Randy Moss
Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
10:10 AM
News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to." NFL Network reports that teams have already been calling his agent following the news.
Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Calvin Johnson
Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
9:39 AM
News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.
Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

DeSean Jackson
Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
9:36 AM
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.
Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Isaac Redman
Redman in line to start for Steelers?
Isaac Redman, RB, PIT
2:23 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. That would open the door for Isaac Redman to be the starting rusher entering training camp.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He's also stepped up while working with Mendenhall and without him, though his one other start in 2011 was a flop (61 total yards, no touchdowns vs. Tennessee). By August we might recommend drafting Redman with a pick in Round 6 or 7 as a good early-season starting option with potential to be a quality Fantasy choice for the entire season. We'll see how the Steelers' run game shakes out.

Steve Slaton
Slaton, Dolphins likely parting ways
Steve Slaton, RB, MIA
12:56 PM
News: The Palm Beach Post reports that RB Steve Slaton is not expected to return to the Dolphins in 2012. Slaton played in three games this season with zero starts after being picked up on waivers before Week 4. He had 17 carries for 64 yards (3.8 average) with one touchdown and a long of 28 and also returned three kickoffs for 85 yards. Slaton was signed as insurance early in the season when both Reggie Bush (groin) and Daniel Thomas (hamstring) battled injuries.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Slaton plays in 2012, but he likely has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in all leagues on Draft Day.

Doug Baldwin
Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
11:14 AM
News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”
Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Hines Ward
Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
9:53 AM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on the future of Hines Ward. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported previously that if the Steelers did decide to release Ward, he was unaware of it. NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report. Ward's 2012 salary is high and he's expected to at least take a significant pay cut, if not get released altogether. Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Josh Morgan
Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
9:49 AM
News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

Jeremy Shockey
Panthers could bring back Shockey
Jeremy Shockey, TE, CAR
9:46 AM
News: The Charlotte Observer considers re-signing free agent TE Jeremy Shockey a "high priority" this offseason. Shockey was the No. 2 TE for the Panthers behind Greg Olsen, and he had a productive season when he caught 37 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns and missed only one game to injury.
Analysis: Though not the same receiver he was a decade ago, Shockey still is a dependable target, particularly in the red zone. If his asking price is too high, Panthers could turn to Gary Barnidge, who was having a great 2011 camp before breaking his ankle. Keep an eye on what happens with Shockey, and if he returns to the Panthers as expected he would be a No. 2 Fantasy TE on Draft Day worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

 
 
 
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