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Dave Richard

History Lesson: A shootout in Big D?

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


In Week 1, the Eagles and Cowboys combined for 1,009 offensive yards and 64 points in their respective games. It's no surprise that they rank first and second overall in total offense.

This week, they play each other. Will the Fantasy fireworks continue?

Based on recent history, don't count on it.

Let's start with Donovan McNabb, who led the NFL in passing yards last week. McNabb's last great outing at Texas Stadium was in 2004, when he threw for 345 yards and four touchdowns (three to then-Eagle Terrell Owens). Since then, he's been slammed in two games at Dallas, averaging 169.5 yards per with one touchdown. Considering the state of his receiving corps, and the depth of talent the Cowboys' secondary boasts, this week's game should be tougher for him and his wideouts than the home opener against a weak Rams defense.

If you own Brian Westbrook, kick back Monday night and enjoy the show (hopefully). (US Presswire)  
If you own Brian Westbrook, kick back Monday night and enjoy the show (hopefully). (US Presswire)  
Reggie Brown and Hank Baskett each have two touchdowns in their last four overall against the Cowboys with unimpressive yardage for the most part, while tight end L.J. Smith hasn't scored on Dallas since 2003. Greg Lewis, who went for over 100 yards last week, has never scored against Dallas, and rookie DeSean Jackson has yet to experience this rivalry. Yet he might wind up being their best weapon in the game thanks to his role in the offense and speed, which the Cowboys should match up fairly well with.

So that leaves Brian Westbrook, the Eagles' most powerful offensive weapon, as the guy they'll lean on against the Cowboys. Not surprisingly, they've done this before. In his last six games against the Cowboys, Westbrook has scored in three of them and took a Fantasy-crushing knee at the Dallas goal line in the fourth (late last season). He's also totaled at least 115 yards in five of his last six against the Cowboys. We know you're starting Westbrook anyway, but we figured you'd like to know his track record against Dallas is solid.

We know you'll also be starting Marion Barber. However, his track record against the Eagles isn't so solid. In fact, Barber has been reduced to -- gasp! -- mediocre against Philadelphia! Over his career against the rival (five games), Barber has one 100-total-yard game against the Eagles and has never rushed for more than 56 yards in a game against them. And while he has three career rushing scores against the Eagles, none have come in Dallas, where they'll play this week.

It's just as shaky for the rest of the Cowboys. Tony Romo, for instance, has only played three times against the Eagles and has been all over the map. In his first encounter, soon after taking over for Drew Bledsoe in 2006, was a horrid 142-yard, one-TD affair with two interceptions. He reversed that in his first meeting in 2007, in Philadelphia, gunning for 324 yards with three touchdowns and a pick, thanks in part to a 174-yard, one-touchdown day from Terrell Owens. Then in the '07 rematch in Dallas late in the year, Romo tossed three interceptions and no scores (214 yards) in a 10-6 loss that had little impact on the Cowboys' playoff position, but had plenty of impact on Fantasy postseasons.

Romo's skittish ways might continue considering the Eagles' aggressive defense and improved secondary depth. That sure won't help his receivers, either. Patrick Crayton has yet to score a touchdown against the Eagles, Jason Witten just started to post some good numbers against Philly last year (11 catches, 190 yards, one TD in two games), and aside from T.O.'s big performance last year, he's been contained by his former team in three other meetings, not even reaching 50 yards receiving.

Bench Terrell Owens? Yeah, right. But if he comes up empty in this game, you might have to tip your cap to Jim Johnson and the Eagles' staff. After all, they've schemed well for Owens 75 percent of the time.

LJ is A-OK vs. OAK

A week ago, we were nervous about starting Larry Johnson against a Patriots defense that was healthy and raring to go. This week, we're not quite as nervous.

That's because Larry Johnson has owned the Raiders over his entire career. In seven career games, Johnson has 11 total touchdowns, including six in his last four games. And speaking of those last four games, Johnson has topped 100 rush yards and 130 total yards in each.

Matchups just don't get better than this.

But what about his teammates? You should be able to figure it out -- if Johnson's hogging the ball and getting the yards, his teammates aren't doing much. Dwayne Bowe led the Chiefs in receiving yards in both games against Oakland last year but didn't get more than 84 yards. Tony Gonzalez, who has posted his career-best totals against Oakland compared to other opponents, couldn't top 66 yards. In fact, in the club's last six games against the Raiders, the Chiefs have thrown two total touchdowns. Even with gunslinger Damon Huard under center, this is a good week to bench Bowe, and maybe even Gonzalez, who last scored on the Raiders in 2004, two years before Raiders FS Michael Huff entered the NFL and started shutting him down.

Can Jacksonville pin Lynch?

For the second year in a row, the Jaguars were run over by the Titans in the season opener. Last season, they rebounded by halting the Falcons' run game at home. This year, Buffalo comes to town, which is convenient, because Buffalo came to Jacksonville last season.

How did the Bills' run game do? On the ground, they stunk, as the running backs totaled 64 yards rushing. But through the air, the Bills' running backs were good for 92 yards. By the way, this was done without Marshawn Lynch, the Bills' leading rusher last season.

Lynch is healthy this season, but it remains to be seen how he'll do on the road. Last season, he didn't total 100 yards in a game until Week 17 at Philadelphia, and he only scored one road TD (at Miami in Week 10). With the Jaguars' reeling from another season-opening loss against the Titans, they could be focused on stopping Lynch and forcing the Bills to move the ball through the air.

History suggests ...

... starting these players
Name History
Laveranues Coles 5 TDs in last 3 at home vs. Patriots
Earnest Graham 229 total yards, 2 TDs in two '07 games vs. Falcons
Vincent Jackson TD in each of last two at Broncos
Greg Jennings 3 TD in last 2 at Lions
Heath Miller TD in two straight vs. Browns
Willie Parker Three straight 100-yard games vs. Browns
Philip Rivers 7 TDs, 2 INT, two 270+ yard games, in 4 starts vs. Broncos
Ben Roethlisberger 936 passing yards, 9 TD in last 4 vs. Browns
Hines Ward TD in two straight vs. Browns
... sitting these players
Name History
Thomas Jones 80 total yards in 2 '07 games vs. Patriots
Jamal Lewis 35 rush yards, 0 TDs in each '07 game vs. Steelers
Brandon Marshall 3 rec, 52 yards in two '07 games vs. Chargers
Roddy White 8 rec, 67 yards in last 4 vs. Bucs; zero career TDs vs. Bucs

Do you have a Fantasy Football question? Send your thoughts to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and we'll get to as many as we can. Be sure to put Attn: History Lessons in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
Matt Schaub
Schaub doing well in rehab
Matt Schaub, QB, HOU
1:03 PM
News: The Houston Chronicle reports Tuesday that Texans QB Matt Schaub, who finished the season on injured reserve following foot surgery, is doing well and his rehab is ahead of schedule. The report says Schaub works out almost every day.
Analysis: This is great news, and we expect Schaub to return at 100 percent in 2012. Continue to monitor what happens with Schaub, but he should be considered a low-end No. 1/high-end No. 2 Fantasy QB heading into the season. He is worth a mid-round pick in all leagues on Draft Day.

Lofa Tatupu
Tatupu visits Saints
Lofa Tatupu, LB, SEA
2:36 PM
News: Free agent LB Lofau Tatupu visited with the Saints on Monday, according to NFL.com. The 29-year-old Tatupu sat out the 2011 season. The former Pro Bowl MLB was asked to take a pay cut by the Seahawks after the lockout ended last summer, and subsequently asked for his release. Tatupu was scheduled to visit with the Raiders and Redskins in August, but didn't sign with anyone and fell off the radar for the remainder of the year while he reportedly dealt with a knee injury. Tatupu was scheduled to earn more than $4 million in 2011 before his release by Seattle. The six-year veteran was a second-round pick and has played in three Pro Bowls. But he also started to wear down from 2008-2010, including finishing 2009 on injured reserve with a knee injury. He did start all 16 games in 2010, but had surgery on both knees during the offseason.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Tatupu and where he plays in 2012. When healthy and active he could be a No. 3 Fantasy LB worth a late-round pick in IDP leagues.

Ravens
Flacco, Ravens to work on deal
Ravens, TQB BAL,
12:47 PM
News: The NFL Network reports that the Ravens are set to open contract extension talks with QB Joe Flacco's agent at the NFL Combine next week. The report says both sides aim for a long-term deal. Flacco is entering a contract year in 2012, and Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti recently said Flacco would be the team's starting quarterback for years to come.
Analysis: Flacco's won a lot of games for the Ravens but hasn't taken the next step statistically, even when the team added Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith. Flacco has had between 3,610 and 3,622 passing yards and between 20 and 25 touchdowns in each of his last three seasons. But this year his completion percentage and yards per attempt dropped like a rock while his pass attempts hit a career high (542, breaking the previous mark of 499). Flacco fits the bill as a great No. 2 Fantasy QB; though he's finally outfitted with a quality receiving corps, he simply doesn't invoke much confidence as a starting option. Look for him late in drafts.

Jahvid Best
Best 'on pace' for offseason work
Jahvid Best, RB, DET
12:43 PM
News: The Detroit Free-Press reports that Lions RB Jahvid Best’s status remains uncertain because of concussion problems even though team president Tom Lewand is optimistic. Lewand said Best is "on pace" to be ready for offseason workouts, and he is looking forward to seeing Best and Mikel Leshoure play together. "Jahvid is a special player and he'll be even more dynamic when he can ... share the load with a guy like Mikel in the backfield."
Analysis: We hope Best can return at 100 percent, but he will likely be used as a change of pace rusher and a third-down back. Continue to monitor what happens with Best, but he should only be drafted with a late-round pick in standard leagues and a mid-round selection in PPR formats since he will likely be used in tandem with Leshoure and possibly Kevin Smith if he returns as a free agent.

Mikel Leshoure
Leshoure's recovery going well
Mikel Leshoure, RB, DET
12:40 PM
News: The Detroit Free-Press reports that Lions RB Mikel Leshoure, who tore his left Achilles tendon in the second week of training camp last year, is close to making a full recovery. At the Lions’ request, Leshoure just moved the final stages of his rehab back to Detroit from Arizona. He’s doing resistance work and light running and is expected to join OTA workouts at some point this offseason. Leshoure looked like he was going to be a key part of the Lions offense when injury struck last August, and the team is anxious to get a read on him this spring. RB Jahvid Best’s status remains uncertain because of concussion problems, and even if Best returns it’s clear he’s not an every-down back.
Analysis: Leshoure should be considered a great sleeper heading into 2012, and he is worth drafting as a No. 3 Fantasy RB as long as he's healthy. He has tremendous upside, and he could be a great weapon for the Lions, especially with Best struggling as an every-down back. Continue to monitor what happens with Leshoure, but he is worth drafting as early as Round 6 in 2012.

Mike Wallace
Steelers want to lock up Wallace
Mike Wallace, WR, PIT
12:17 PM
News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday the team wants to keep WR Mike Wallace "here for the long run." Wallace, their leading receiver last season, will become a restricted free agent March 13.
Analysis: Wallace played well in 2011 with 72 catches for 1,193 yards and eight touchdowns on 114 targets. He will remain in Pittsburgh in 2012, and hopefully he can sign a long-term deal. We consider Wallace a Top 10 Fantasy WR on Draft Day, and he should be selected in all leagues in Round 3.

Hines Ward
GM says no decision on Ward yet
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
12:13 PM
News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on whether WR Hines Ward will be back with the Steelers in 2012. "To this current point, no final decisions have been made," Colbert said. "We've had several discussions internally. We're right in the midst of our free agent evaluations of other teams' free agents. We'll meet on those [on the Steelers roster] starting Thursday and carry through Monday." A recent report on NFL Network said that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Brandon Lloyd
Pats could go after Lloyd
Brandon Lloyd, WR, STL
12:08 PM
News: The Boston Herald reports that the Patriots will be in the market for a WR this year, and one obvious possibility is Brandon Lloyd, who is an impending free agent, because of his ties to offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. The fact that Lloyd said “I’m tied to McDaniels” makes him a likely free agent target. Lloyd had 51 catches for 683 yards and five TDs last year in 11 games in St. Louis when McDaniels was the offensive coordinator makes him look pretty good after he amassed 77 catches for 1,448 yards and 11 scores with Denver when McDaniels was the coach.
Analysis: One holdup for Lloyd and the Patriots could be Lloyd's agent, Tom Condon, who has a rocky relationship with the Patriots. We'll see what plays out this offseason, but if Lloyd signs in New England he would be considered a low-end No. 2 Fantasy WR. He could still return to the Rams, where he would be a strong No. 3 option. Or he could shop himself around the league. Stay tuned, but either way Lloyd is worth a mid-round pick in all leagues.

Bills
Fitzpatrick finished season hurt
Bills, TQB BUF,
11:53 AM
News: The Sports Xchange reports that Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick's second-half swoon in 2011 was mystifying to fans and media who concluded the front office badly miscalculated in handing the career journeyman a 10-year, $60 million contract extension. But now it appears Fitzpatrick played the final nine games last season with cracked ribs. "A lot of people don't know, but Fitz, during the Washington game, actually cracked a couple of ribs," WR David Nelson said. "So after that he was playing hurt." It showed. In Fitzpatrick's first seven games of the year, he threw for 1,739 yards, 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. After the injury, he had 2,093 yards, 10 touchdowns and 16 picks. He finished the year with a league-high 23 interceptions. "It's hard to find the silver lining but as we evaluate the season and what went right and what went wrong I'm sure we'll find a lot of positives and a lot of things that we can carry into next year hopefully and continue to get better at it," Fitzpatrick said.
Analysis: Fitzpatrick obviously has 4,000-yard, 25-touchdown potential, but issues involving the personnel around him along with his own issues (accuracy, for one) make him risky for weekly use in Fantasy. Figure that he's worth a late-round pick as a good No. 2 Fantasy QB with potential to be a low-end starter. It should only help him if the Bills not only re-sign Steve Johnson this offseason, but also add talent at wide receiver.

Josh Scobee
Jags want Scobee back
Josh Scobee, K, JAC
11:47 AM
News: The Sports Xchange reports that Jacksonville has most of its top offensive players locked into contracts for the coming season with one notable exception - kicker Josh Scobee, who is an eight-year veteran. Scobee has been one of the league's most accurate kickers in his eight seasons with the Jaguars, converting better than 75 percent of his field-goal attempts in all but one season. Scobee led the team in scoring last year with 92 points, including 23 of 25 (92 percent) field-goal attempts, the second time in his career he's finished over 90 percent with his kicks. It isn't likely the Jaguars would use the franchise tag on him and probably won't have to. They'll make every attempt to sign him. For a team that was among the league's lowest scoring clubs, the Jaguars can ill afford to lose a player with Scobee's talents.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Scobee. He is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues, but he could be used as a bye-week replacement as long as he remains with the Jaguars.

 
 
 
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