Sep. 14, 2008

Four Downs: Marshall a Cut-ler above

By Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer

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Marshall returned from his one-game suspension Sunday to nearly earn himself an NFL record. He had 18 catches for 166 yards and a touchdown against San Diego, falling two catches short of Terrell Owens' record of 20 receptions set in 2000 with San Francisco.

It's fitting that Marshall challenged one of Owens' marks since Marshall has been called "Baby T.O." because of his size, speed and playmaking ability. Well, Marshall could challenge Owens and Randy Moss as the best receiver in the NFL this year if he keeps up this pace.


Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler could form a lethal combination for the rest of 2008. (AP)

As it stands now, Marshall would finish with 252 catches for 2,324 yards and 14 touchdowns this year if he plays every game like he did in Week 2. While that's not going to happen, Marshall is in line for an outstanding year in his third season.

If you took a chance on drafting Marshall this year, pat yourself on the back. And if you own Jay Cutler, thank Marshall as well.

Cutler opened the season with 300 yards passing and two touchdowns in Week 1 at Oakland, and that was without Marshall. On Sunday, Cutler had 350 yards passing, four touchdowns and an interception -- including a two-point conversion on a gutsy call from coach Mike Shanahan to win the game 39-38 -- and is ready to become the next great quarterback in the NFL.

Cutler has playmakers all over the field in Marshall, Eddie Royal, Tony Scheffler, Brandon Stokley and a solid running game. He also has history on his side.

Cutler is entering his third year with Shanahan, which is typically when Shanahan's quarterbacks fully grasp his system. John Elway won a Super Bowl in his third year with Shanahan in 1997, and Jake Plummer went to the AFC Championship Game in his third year with Shanahan in 2005.

Cutler might not have similar team success, but he appears to have a newfound comfort level with the offense. And playing with Marshall for the next 14 games should only make things that much better.

It's going to be a great year offensively in Denver -- and another big game should be in the works in Week 3 against New Orleans. So don't be surprised when Marshall finishes as the No. 1 wide receiver and Cutler finishes as the No. 1 quarterback in Fantasy leagues in 2008.

After watching what happened against the Chargers, they have my vote already.

McFadden, rookies running wild

Welcome to the NFL, Darren McFadden.

Justin Fargas went down with a groin injury at Kansas City, and McFadden took over. The rookie had 21 carries for 164 yards and a touchdown and also caught one pass for nine yards.

It's unknown how long Fargas will be out, but it could open the door for more opportunities for McFadden, who played like the top rookie we all expected and should be considered a starting Fantasy option in Week 3 at Buffalo. But McFadden wasn't alone as a rookie star in Week 2.

Jonathan Stewart had his first breakout game with 14 carries for 77 yards and two touchdowns against Chicago. Stewart outplayed DeAngelo Williams (11 carries for 31 yards), so hopefully this is a sign of things to come. Stewart has a tough matchup in Week 3 at Minnesota, but if he continues to play better than Williams he should get more carries.

Chris Johnson had another good week with 19 carries for 109 yards and two catches for 12 yards at Cincinnati. He again outplayed LenDale White (18 carries for 59 yards and a touchdown) and should be in line for a big game in Week 3 against Houston. In two games, Johnson has 248 total yards.

And Matt Forte played well with 23 carries for 92 yards and three catches for 21 yards. Forte has now reached must-start status as a No. 2 option even heading into Week 3 against Tampa Bay. Forte has 254 total yards in two games.

This is going to be a great year for rookie running backs, so hopefully you have at least one on your Fantasy team.

Cassel, Patriots struggle

Welcome to reality, Matt Cassel.

While Cassel may turn into a decent Fantasy option with Tom Brady (knee) out, he had a rough debut at the Jets. Granted, it was a tough division opponent on the road in his first start since high school, but you wanted to see more from him.

Cassel was 16-of-23 passing for 165 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions, and he struggled to connect with Randy Moss, who only had two catches for 22 yards. Wes Welker played well with seven catches for 72 yards, but this could be a bad sign for the Patriots passing game.

We'll find out how the Patriots should fare against weaker opponents when they face Miami in Week 3. The Dolphins allowed Kurt Warner to pass for 361 yards and three touchdowns Sunday, so Cassel could be in line for a good outing.

If you're worried about Cassel and looking for a quarterback, some passers drafted as backups played well this week. Along with Warner, Philip Rivers (377 passing yards, three touchdowns and one interception), Aaron Rodgers (328 passing yards and three touchdowns), Jason Campbell (321 passing yards and one touchdown) and J.T. O'Sullivan (321 passing yards and one touchdown) all had big games and could be available in a trade.

As for the Patriots running game, it was a mess against the Jets. LaMont Jordan was the leading rusher with 11 carries for 62 yards, Sammy Morris scored the touchdown but had no rushing yards on eight carries and Laurence Maroney had eight carries for 16 yards. Kevin Faulk also returned with three carries for 16 yards and four catches for 50 yards.

For now, keep all these players reserved and hope someone emerges as a good Fantasy option against the Dolphins.

Bench the Bengals

Welcome to Fantasy purgatory, Cincinnati Bengals.

It's time to bench Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, at least for the foreseeable future. They look awful right now.

After a dismal performance in Week 1 at Baltimore, the Bengals looked equally as bad in Week 2 against Tennessee. Palmer had 134 passing yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions, Houshmandzadeh had three catches for 26 yards and Johnson had four catches for 37 yards.

The Bengals are going to struggle again in Week 3 at the Giants, so if you can avoid using them, that's the safe play at this point. It could be a long year in Cincinnati.

Some other observations from Week 2: Anthony Gonzalez had nine catches for 137 yards and could continue to shine if Dallas Clark (knee) remains out. Clark missed the game at Minnesota. ... If Fargas is out, pick up Michael Bush. Bush had 16 carries for 90 yards and a touchdown in tandem with McFadden. ... Julius Jones had 26 carries for 126 yards and a touchdown against the 49ers. It's his first 100-yard game since Dec. 10, 2006 and first touchdown in 10 games. Hopefully for Jones owners, Maurice Morris (knee) will stay out another couple of weeks. ... Calvin Johnson had six catches for 129 yards and two touchdowns and is ready to challenge Marshall for the top wide receiver title.

What are your four downs from this week? See anything that jumped off the screen? Let us know -- email us at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Four Downs in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.

PUP list in Mendenhall's future
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
2:15 PM

News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Mendenhall tore his right ACL in Week 17 of last season; recovery time for such injuries is anywhere from nine months to a year.

Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He'll likely get the first crack at starting in place of Mendenhall. There's still a lot of time between now and the regular season, but for now it's probably safe to expect Mendenhall to not be at even close to 100 percent to start the year, which will absolutely impact his Fantasy value. By August, you might be drafting Mendenhall as a middle- to late-round sleeper you'll have to sit on for a while. We'll keep you posted on Mendenhall as best as we can.

Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
10:10 AM

News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to."

Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
9:39 AM

News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.

Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
9:36 AM

News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.

Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Redman in line to start for Steelers?
Isaac Redman, RB, PIT
2:23 PM

News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. That would open the door for Isaac Redman to be the starting rusher entering training camp.

Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He's also stepped up while working with Mendenhall and without him, though his one other start in 2011 was a flop (61 total yards, no touchdowns vs. Tennessee). By August we might recommend drafting Redman with a pick in Round 6 or 7 as a good early-season starting option with potential to be a quality Fantasy choice for the entire season. We'll see how the Steelers' run game shakes out.

Slaton, Dolphins likely parting ways
Steve Slaton, RB, MIA
12:56 PM

News: The Palm Beach Post reports that RB Steve Slaton is not expected to return to the Dolphins in 2012. Slaton played in three games this season with zero starts after being picked up on waivers before Week 4. He had 17 carries for 64 yards (3.8 average) with one touchdown and a long of 28 and also returned three kickoffs for 85 yards. Slaton was signed as insurance early in the season when both Reggie Bush (groin) and Daniel Thomas (hamstring) battled injuries.

Analysis: Keep an eye on where Slaton plays in 2012, but he likely has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in all leagues on Draft Day.

Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
11:14 AM

News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”

Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
9:53 AM

News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on the future of Hines Ward. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported previously that if the Steelers did decide to release Ward, he was unaware of it. NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report. Ward's 2012 salary is high and he's expected to at least take a significant pay cut, if not get released altogether. Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.

Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
9:49 AM

News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.

Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

Panthers could bring back Shockey
Jeremy Shockey, TE, CAR
9:46 AM

News: The Charlotte Observer considers re-signing free agent TE Jeremy Shockey a "high priority" this offseason. Shockey was the No. 2 TE for the Panthers behind Greg Olsen, and he had a productive season when he caught 37 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns and missed only one game to injury.

Analysis: Though not the same receiver he was a decade ago, Shockey still is a dependable target, particularly in the red zone. If his asking price is too high, Panthers could turn to Gary Barnidge, who was having a great 2011 camp before breaking his ankle. Keep an eye on what happens with Shockey, and if he returns to the Panthers as expected he would be a No. 2 Fantasy TE on Draft Day worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

More Updates

1	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tom Brady, NE, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Matthew Stafford, DET, QB
6	Philip Rivers, SD, QB
7	Eli Manning, NYG, QB
8	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
9	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
10	Peyton Manning, IND, QB
All Rankings

1	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
2	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
3	Ray Rice, BAL, RB
4	Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC, RB
5	Matt Forte, CHI, RB
6	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
7	Ryan Mathews, SD, RB
8	Chris Johnson, TEN, RB
9	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
10	Steven Jackson, STL, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Wes Welker, NE, WR
3	Roddy White, ATL, WR
4	Larry Fitzgerald, ARI, WR
5	Hakeem Nicks, NYG, WR
6	Greg Jennings, GB, WR
7	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
8	A.J. Green, CIN, WR
9	Mike Wallace, PIT, WR
10	Miles Austin, DAL, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
5	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
6	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
7	Vernon Davis, SF, TE
8	Jermichael Finley, GB, TE
9	Brent Celek, PHI, TE
10	Fred Davis, WAS, TE
All Rankings

1	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
2	Mason Crosby, GB, K
3	Sebastian Janikowski, OAK, K
4	David Akers, SF, K
5	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
6	Dan Bailey, DAL, K
7	Jason Hanson, DET, K
8	Neil Rackers, HOU, K
9	Alex Henery, PHI, K
10	Nate Kaeding, SD, K
All Rankings

1	49ers, DST
2	Texans, DST
3	Ravens, DST
4	Giants, DST
5	Steelers, DST
6	Seahawks, DST
7	Eagles, DST
8	Packers, DST
9	Jets, DST
10	Patriots, DST
All Rankings