Sep. 24, 2008

Re-examining the rookie RBs

By Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer

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Matt Forte is living up to all his expectations so far.

In the preseason, I spoke with Forte about his outlook for 2008. At the time, the Bears had just signed Kevin Jones, and Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton were competing for the starting quarterback job. It looked like Forte was going to have to carry the offense with Jones limited by his knee injury, and so far it's worked out that way.

Through three weeks, Forte is the best of a tremendous rookie running back class with 73 carries for 304 yards and a touchdown and 13 catches for 105 yards and a touchdown. He has a lot of competition to be the No. 1 rookie running back, but Forte is ready for the challenge.


Chris Johnson has quickly proven to be Tennessee's best offensive weapon. (US Presswire)

"I want to do great things as a rookie," Forte said back in training camp. "I want to take advantage of the opportunity presented before me. I just want to go out and run hard and work hard and show what I can do."

Forte has been impressive, and Fantasy owners who took a chance on him have reaped the rewards. He is currently the No. 6 Fantasy running back in a standard-scoring league.

But Forte is not alone as a top rookie this year. Almost all the rookie running backs are off to good starts.

In Week 1, Forte and Chris Johnson burst on the scene with outstanding debuts in their first NFL game. In Week 2, it was Darren McFadden and Jonathan Stewart's turn. Last week, Steve Slaton made his presence known.

Who will it be in Week 4? Rashard Mendenhall will get his first start with Willie Parker (out) against Baltimore. Felix Jones and Tim Hightower have done well in reserve roles but are waiting for their first chance to dominate.

It has been an outstanding first three weeks for the running back Class of 2008. And we've only just begun to see how good they can be.

Last year, Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch were the only rookies to rank in the Top 30 of Fantasy running backs. In 2006, Maurice Jones-Drew, Joseph Addai, Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney and Mike Bell made the list.

So far this year, five rookies are in the Top 30 (Forte, Johnson, Stewart, McFadden and Jones), with Hightower (No. 32), Slaton (No. 38) and Kevin Smith (No. 39) on the verge of cracking the list. It could be the best rookie crop of running backs in NFL history.

The Class of '83 is known for its quarterbacks with John Elway, Dan Marino and Jim Kelly. The Class of '08 (so far) is all about the running backs.

Editor's note: Players are listed in alphabetical order. All average draft positions based on CBSSports.com draft averages. Projections are as of July 25, 2008. The ranking through Week 3 is based on a standard-scoring Fantasy league and is compared to all running backs.

Jamaal Charles, Kansas City

Charles has emerged as No. 2 on the depth chart behind starter Larry Johnson and ahead of Kolby Smith. At some point this year, Charles could play a significant role on your Fantasy team if Johnson gets hurt. For now, consider Charles a good handcuff option for Johnson, and he is a decent free agent to add since he's only owned in 11 percent of leagues. With the bye weeks upon us, Charles could get you about three or four Fantasy points if you're in dire need of a backup running back.

Average draft position: No. 184 overall
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 241 rushing yards, one touchdown, nine catches, 75 receiving yards
Preseason rank: No. 63
Stats through Week 3/Ranking: 15 carries, 73 rushing yards, six catches, 45 yards/No. 59

Tashard Choice, Dallas

Choice is the No. 3 running back for the Cowboys behind Marion Barber and Felix Jones and likely won't play much this year unless either gets hurt. But with Barber's running style, that's a possibility. And since the Cowboys have the chance to put up plenty of points, Choice could see garbage time like he did in Week 1 against Cleveland. Choice shouldn't be owned for now, but he is definitely a running back to monitor the rest of this season.

Average draft position: Not drafted
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 140 rushing yards, six catches, 40 receiving yards
Preseason rank: Not ranked
Stats through Week 3/Ranking: five carries, 26 rushing yards, one catch, 2 yards/No. 80

Matt Forte, Chicago

Forte has been the best surprise of the rookie running back class, and he's among the running back leaders in rushing yards and total yards. He also is tied with Brandon Lloyd for most catches for the Bears, showing he's the team's best weapon. The only reason Forte owners should be concerned at this point is if Kevin Jones shows any signs of life, but right now that hasn't happened. Still, Jones could cut into Forte's production later this year and derail his chances for rookie of the year.

Average draft position: No. 84 overall
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 889 rushing yards, four touchdowns, 31 catches, 222 receiving yards
Preseason rank: No. 29
Stats through Week 3/Ranking: 73 carries, 304 rushing yards, one touchdown, 13 catches, 105 receiving yards, one touchdown/No. 6

Jacob Hester, San Diego

Hester was competing with Darren Sproles to be the No. 2 option behind LaDainian Tomlinson during training camp, but Sproles has won the job and kept Hester on the bench. Fantasy owners who handcuffed Hester to Tomlinson and missed out on Sproles are unhappy right now. At some point, Hester could become a goal-line option or fullback, but another rookie, Mike Tolbert, has played well as the starting fullback for the Chargers. The safe bet is to ignore Hester for now.

Average draft position: No. 179 overall
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 110 rushing yards, 24 catches, 155 receiving yards, one touchdown
Preseason rank: No. 62
Stats through Week 3/Ranking: one carry, 3 rushing yards/Not ranked

Tim Hightower, Arizona

Hightower has been another great surprise for Fantasy owners and has more Fantasy points than starter Edgerrin James. James does all the work to reach the red zone before Hightower comes on to score the touchdowns. That should continue all year, and don't be surprised when Hightower takes regular carries away from James. Hightower is only averaging 2.6 yards per carry, but he can catch and obviously score touchdowns, which makes him a solid Fantasy reserve at this time.

Average draft position: Not drafted
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 76 carries, 292 rushing yards, three touchdowns, seven catches, 37 receiving yards
Preseason rank: No. 68
Stats through Week 3/Ranking: 23 carries, 60 rushing yards, two touchdowns, seven catches, 79 yards/No. 32

Chris Johnson, Tennessee

If Johnson wasn't losing touchdowns to LenDale White, he would be the No. 1 rookie running back right now. White has scored four rushing touchdowns thanks to Johnson doing all the heavy lifting. That's going to happen all year, which will lower Johnson's Fantasy value, but he's still worth starting as a No. 2 Fantasy option because he's a dual threat. Johnson has proven in three games to be the Titans' best player, and he will continue to blossom and develop into a similar player like Reggie Bush.

Average draft position: No. 119 overall
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 399 rushing yards, one touchdown, 30 catches, 296 receiving yards, two touchdowns
Preseason rank: No. 37
Stats through Week 3/Ranking: 50 carries, 276 rushing yards, seven catches, 51 receiving yards, one touchdown/No. 14

Felix Jones, Dallas

Jones needs more touches, which might not happen with Marion Barber running so well, but Jones has been effective. He is averaging 8.2 yards-per-carry and became the first Cowboys player to score a touchdown in each of his first three games when you include his kickoff return in Week 2. It's time to start using Jones as a flex option, but the only problem is he's averaging only six carries a game. Imagine what he could do with 10 or more? Hopefully that will happen as the season goes on.

Average draft position: No. 115 overall
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 649 rushing yards, three touchdowns, 21 catches, 120 receiving yards
Preseason rank: No. 36
Stats through Week 3/Ranking: 18 carries, 148 rushing yards, two touchdowns, one catch, 3 yards/No. 28

Darren McFadden, Oakland

McFadden was the rookie every owner had to have because of his playmaking ability in college. He was able to display those skills in Week 2 when he ran for 164 yards and a touchdown at Kansas City, but a toe injury slowed him down in Week 3 at Buffalo. We'll see if he can pick it back up this week against San Diego, but McFadden will finish among the top rookie running backs. Just don't expect him to be the best of this group. He will continue to lose carries to Justin Fargas when he's healthy and Michael Bush.

Average draft position: No. 38 overall
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 1,024 rushing yards, four touchdowns, 29 catches, 232 receiving yards, one touchdown
Preseason rank: No. 16
Stats through Week 3/Ranking: 44 carries, 252 rushing yards, one touchdown, five catches, 26 yards, one fumble/No. 21

Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh

Willie Parker started off the season strong, which kept Mendenhall on the bench. But now that Parker (knee) is out this week against the Ravens, we'll see what Mendenhall can do. He had fumble problems in the preseason, which hasn't helped him earn playing time, and the Ravens have a tough run defense. It might not be a good gauge of Mendenhall's talent, but at some point he's going to have a big game, so don't give up on just yet even if he struggles in Week 4.

Average draft position: No. 111 overall
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 686 rushing yards, five touchdowns, 14 catches, 114 receiving yards
Preseason rank: No. 41
Stats through Week 3/Ranking: 10 carries, 28 rushing yards, one catch, 11 receiving yards/No. 76

Ray Rice, Baltimore

Rice was supposed to be the No. 2 option behind Willis McGahee and even started in Week 1 against Cincinnati when McGahee (knee) was hurt. But LeRon McClain has stepped up as the No. 2 running back and kept Rice on the bench. It could continue as long as McGahee and McClain stay healthy. The Ravens still like Rice, so don't panic if you drafted him, but he might not play a significant role until later on this season when Baltimore starts looking at its younger players.

Average draft position: No. 133 overall
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 190 rushing yards, two touchdowns, 23 catches, 152 receiving yards, one touchdown
Preseason rank: No. 44
Stats through Week 3/Ranking: 27 carries, 85 rushing yards, three catches 19 receiving yards, one fumble/No. 63

Steve Slaton, Houston

Slaton had a tremendous Week 3 at Tennessee with 18 carries for 116 yards and a touchdown and will continue to start for the rest of the season, according to coach Gary Kubiak, even when Ahman Green returns to health. That's great news for Fantasy owners who took Slaton with a late-round pick. He's not going to run every week like he did against the Titans and might struggle in Week 4 at Jacksonville, but he displayed enough talent in Week 3 that he can be a top rookie this year.

Average draft position: No. 160 overall
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 320 rushing yards, one touchdown, five catches, 31 receiving yards
Preseason rank: No. 47
Stats through Week 3/Ranking: 31 carries, 159 rushing yards, one touchdown, seven catches, 14 yards/No. 38

Kevin Smith, Detroit

Smith has been the biggest disappointment of the rookie class and might lose his starting job. In Week 3, Rudi Johnson had 131 total yards and a touchdown at San Francisco compared to Smith's 14 yards. The Lions have also been linked to Shaun Alexander and Cedric Benson, which shows that Smith has failed to deliver. At some point, Smith will play a role on your Fantasy team, so don't release him, but right now he's struggling. The Lions are also desperate, which is why they will likely turn to Johnson following the bye.

Average draft position: No. 81 overall
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 985 rushing yards, five touchdowns, 13 catches, 97 receiving yards
Preseason rank: No. 24
Stats through Week 3/Ranking: 29 carries, 102 rushing yards, one touchdown, eight catches, 53 yards/No. 39

Jonathan Stewart, Carolina

Stewart was my choice as the top rookie this year before the season, and I'll stick with it because of his ability to score touchdowns. He already leads all rookies with three, and we haven't seen him really run the ball yet. DeAngelo Williams remains the starter for the Panthers, but Stewart will get the goal-line opportunities. He should be in line for a great game against Atlanta in Week 4, so look for Stewart to show the coaches he should be starting for Carolina. He should already be a No. 2 Fantasy option in all leagues.

Average draft position: No. 76 overall
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 994 rushing yards, seven touchdowns, 12 catches, 85 receiving yards
Preseason rank: No. 31
Stats through Week 3/Ranking: 31 carries, 145 rushing yards, three touchdowns, no catches/No. 18

Ryan Torain, Denver

Torain is going to be a good free agent pickup once he comes back from his elbow injury because the Broncos have struggled to run the ball this year with Selvin Young, Andre Hall and Michael Pittman. There was a reason coach Mike Shanahan didn't put Torain on injured reserve, and that's because he feels confident in his abilities. Torain is only owned in 6 percent of leagues on CBSSports.com, so if you have a roster spot, pick up Torain now and hope he returns to health at 100 percent.

Average draft position: No. 156 overall
CBSSports.com 2008 projection: 687 rushing yards, three touchdowns, six catches, 25 receiving yards
Preseason rank: Not ranked
Stats through Week 3/Ranking: No stats/No ranking

Leshoure's recovery going well
Mikel Leshoure, RB, DET
12:40 PM

News: The Detroit Free-Press reports that Lions RB Mikel Leshoure, who tore his left Achilles tendon in the second week of training camp last year, is close to making a full recovery. At the Lions’ request, Leshoure just moved the final stages of his rehab back to Detroit from Arizona. He’s doing resistance work and light running and is expected to join OTA workouts at some point this offseason. Leshoure looked like he was going to be a key part of the Lions offense when injury struck last August, and the team is anxious to get a read on him this spring. RB Jahvid Best’s status remains uncertain because of concussion problems, and even if Best returns it’s clear he’s not an every-down back.

Analysis: Leshoure should be considered a great sleeper heading into 2012, and he is worth drafting as a No. 3 Fantasy RB as long as he's healthy. He has tremendous upside, and he could be a great weapon for the Lions, especially with Best struggling as an every-down back. Continue to monitor what happens with Leshoure, but he is worth drafting as early as Round 6 in 2012.

Steelers want to lock up Wallace
Mike Wallace, WR, PIT
12:17 PM

News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday the team wants to keep WR Mike Wallace "here for the long run." Wallace, their leading receiver last season, will become a restricted free agent March 13.

Analysis: Wallace played well in 2011 with 72 catches for 1,193 yards and eight touchdowns on 114 targets. He will remain in Pittsburgh in 2012, and hopefully he can sign a long-term deal. We consider Wallace a Top 10 Fantasy WR on Draft Day, and he should be selected in all leagues in Round 3.

GM says no decision on Ward yet
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
12:13 PM

News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on whether WR Hines Ward will be back with the Steelers in 2012. "To this current point, no final decisions have been made," Colbert said. "We've had several discussions internally. We're right in the midst of our free agent evaluations of other teams' free agents. We'll meet on those [on the Steelers roster] starting Thursday and carry through Monday." A recent report on NFL Network said that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report.

Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Pats could go after Lloyd
Brandon Lloyd, WR, STL
12:08 PM

News: The Boston Herald reports that the Patriots will be in the market for a WR this year, and one obvious possibility is Brandon Lloyd, who is an impending free agent, because of his ties to offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. The fact that Lloyd said “I’m tied to McDaniels” makes him a likely free agent target. Lloyd had 51 catches for 683 yards and five TDs last year in 11 games in St. Louis when McDaniels was the offensive coordinator makes him look pretty good after he amassed 77 catches for 1,448 yards and 11 scores with Denver when McDaniels was the coach.

Analysis: One holdup for Lloyd and the Patriots could be Lloyd's agent, Tom Condon, who has a rocky relationship with the Patriots. We'll see what plays out this offseason, but if Lloyd signs in New England he would be considered a low-end No. 2 Fantasy WR. He could still return to the Rams, where he would be a strong No. 3 option. Or he could shop himself around the league. Stay tuned, but either way Lloyd is worth a mid-round pick in all leagues.

Fitzpatrick finished season hurt
Bills, TQB BUF,
11:53 AM

News: The Sports Xchange reports that Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick's second-half swoon in 2011 was mystifying to fans and media who concluded the front office badly miscalculated in handing the career journeyman a 10-year, $60 million contract extension. But now it appears Fitzpatrick played the final nine games last season with cracked ribs. "A lot of people don't know, but Fitz, during the Washington game, actually cracked a couple of ribs," WR David Nelson said. "So after that he was playing hurt." It showed. In Fitzpatrick's first seven games of the year, he threw for 1,739 yards, 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. After the injury, he had 2,093 yards, 10 touchdowns and 16 picks. He finished the year with a league-high 23 interceptions. "It's hard to find the silver lining but as we evaluate the season and what went right and what went wrong I'm sure we'll find a lot of positives and a lot of things that we can carry into next year hopefully and continue to get better at it," Fitzpatrick said.

Analysis: Fitzpatrick obviously has 4,000-yard, 25-touchdown potential, but issues involving the personnel around him along with his own issues (accuracy, for one) make him risky for weekly use in Fantasy. Figure that he's worth a late-round pick as a good No. 2 Fantasy QB with potential to be a low-end starter. It should only help him if the Bills not only re-sign Steve Johnson this offseason, but also add talent at wide receiver.

Jags want Scobee back
Josh Scobee, K, JAC
11:47 AM

News: The Sports Xchange reports that Jacksonville has most of its top offensive players locked into contracts for the coming season with one notable exception - kicker Josh Scobee, who is an eight-year veteran. Scobee has been one of the league's most accurate kickers in his eight seasons with the Jaguars, converting better than 75 percent of his field-goal attempts in all but one season. Scobee led the team in scoring last year with 92 points, including 23 of 25 (92 percent) field-goal attempts, the second time in his career he's finished over 90 percent with his kicks. It isn't likely the Jaguars would use the franchise tag on him and probably won't have to. They'll make every attempt to sign him. For a team that was among the league's lowest scoring clubs, the Jaguars can ill afford to lose a player with Scobee's talents.

Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Scobee. He is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues, but he could be used as a bye-week replacement as long as he remains with the Jaguars.

Coaches excited about Bradford
Rams, TQB STL,
11:44 AM

News: The Sports Xchange reports that new Rams coach Jeff Fisher and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer are excited to be working with QB Sam Bradford. Fisher has said on several occasions that Bradford's presence was a major factor that made the Rams' job attractive. "Sam was a big part of the decision," Fisher said. "We think he has a chance to be great. A lot of people around the league believe that. We are going to everything possible to make that happen." As Schottenheimer began watching tape of Bradford, he liked what he saw. "Obviously, he's extremely gifted, extremely talented," Schottenheimer said. "As I'm watching the film, getting the sense of how accurate he is with the football and how well he actually moves around and has made plays. That was one of the things that jumped off the film at me. It will be a fun process going through and looking at all the games and just getting a sense of where he's at. Obviously, I've been around a lot of young quarterbacks, but I think this guy's got a chance to be real special."

Analysis: We have high expectations for Bradford heading into 2012, but he still remains just a No. 2 Fantasy QB in the majority of leagues. The Rams need to give Bradford some weapons, but he is someone to draft with a late-round pick with the hope he can develop into a potential starting option in all formats.

Hill wants return to Lions
Shaun Hill, QB, DET
11:19 AM

News: The Detroit Free-Press reports that Lions backup QB Shaun Hill would like to return to Detroit in 2012. The Lions have told Hill, his representatives and others that they want him back as the primary backup to Matthew Stafford. Hill also wants to return to Detroit -- and might even take a slight discount to do so. The 32-year-old appeared in two games last year and attempted just three passes, but he made 10 starts in 2010, when Stafford missed 13 games with two separated throwing shoulders.

Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Hill, but unless he signs with a team and earns a starting job he would not be worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Cotchery wants return to Steelers
Jerricho Cotchery, WR, PIT
11:15 AM

News: The Newark Star-Ledger reports that Steelers WR Jerricho Cotchery, who is an impending free agent, would like to return to Pittsburgh in 2012. “In exit meetings (with the Steelers), it was pretty much stated that they were very pleased with me, who I was on the field and off the field,” Cotchery said. “I’m everything that they thought I would be, so from their standpoint, they definitely would want me back. And I expressed the same desire, so we’ll see what happens.”

Analysis: Cotchery was coming off offseason back surgery last season and then missed the first three games with a hamstring injury. He finished with 16 catches for 237 yards, and he caught a 31-yard touchdown pass to force overtime against the Broncos in the wild-card playoff game. Keep an eye on what happens with Cotchery, but he has minimal Fantasy value heading into the year. He should not be drafted in most formats.

Kolb plans to be Cardinals starter
Cardinals, TQB ARI,
11:06 AM

News: The Arizona Republic reports that Cardinals QB Kevin Kolb is not worried about losing his job heading into 2012 with the speculation the team could sign Peyton Manning if he becomes a free agent. "I know how the NFL works," Kolb said, "anything is possible. I just try to keep my mind clear and do what I can on my end. I plan on having a great year and being a Cardinal for a long time." Kolb is due a $7 million bonus if he's on the roster March 17, and said "every indication on my end shows me that I'll be there." Kolb's first season with the Cardinals was hampered by a foot injury and concussion. He missed four games because of the foot and the last three games of the season with the concussion. "I feel good," Kolb said. "I'd say it took three to four weeks after the season was over to not have any symptoms. Once my mind cleared, I got back to working out."

Analysis: Kolb struggled in his first year with the Cardinals in 2011, and he was outplayed by John Skelton for most of the year. Kolb passed for 1,955 passing yards, nine touchdowns and eight interceptions, but he will likely be the starter in 2012 if the team doesn't bring in Manning. Keep an eye on what happens, but Kolb is only worth drafting as a No. 2 Fantasy QB in deeper leagues if he remains the starter with the Cardinals.

More Updates

1	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tom Brady, NE, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Matthew Stafford, DET, QB
6	Philip Rivers, SD, QB
7	Eli Manning, NYG, QB
8	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
9	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
10	Peyton Manning, IND, QB
All Rankings

1	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
2	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
3	Ray Rice, BAL, RB
4	Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC, RB
5	Matt Forte, CHI, RB
6	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
7	Ryan Mathews, SD, RB
8	Chris Johnson, TEN, RB
9	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
10	Steven Jackson, STL, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Wes Welker, NE, WR
3	Roddy White, ATL, WR
4	Larry Fitzgerald, ARI, WR
5	Hakeem Nicks, NYG, WR
6	Greg Jennings, GB, WR
7	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
8	A.J. Green, CIN, WR
9	Mike Wallace, PIT, WR
10	Miles Austin, DAL, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
5	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
6	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
7	Vernon Davis, SF, TE
8	Jermichael Finley, GB, TE
9	Brent Celek, PHI, TE
10	Fred Davis, WAS, TE
All Rankings

1	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
2	Mason Crosby, GB, K
3	Sebastian Janikowski, OAK, K
4	David Akers, SF, K
5	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
6	Dan Bailey, DAL, K
7	Jason Hanson, DET, K
8	Neil Rackers, HOU, K
9	Alex Henery, PHI, K
10	Nate Kaeding, SD, K
All Rankings

1	49ers, DST
2	Texans, DST
3	Ravens, DST
4	Giants, DST
5	Steelers, DST
6	Seahawks, DST
7	Eagles, DST
8	Packers, DST
9	Jets, DST
10	Patriots, DST
All Rankings