In a season where Tom Brady was lost after eight minutes, two potent offenses in Cincinnati and Cleveland have wilted and star receivers catch suspensions like touchdowns, the last thing we need to see is the sure thing in Fantasy become unsure.
It hasn't happened yet, but it's closer than you might think. Fantasy owners lucky enough to spend the No. 1 overall draft pick on LaDainian Tomlinson this summer have scraped by with 2007's leading rusher delivering deceptive Fantasy production. While he's scored two touchdowns in each of his last two games, and even with him breaking off a 41-yard touchdown carry that broke the Raiders' back in Week 4, Tomlinson is looking ... dare I say ... slow.
The reason? Most likely a sprained big toe, a legitimate injury as it hurts Tomlinson's ability to make quick-as-a-cat cuts as well as accelerate. Before the 41-yard run Sunday, Tomlinson had averaged 3.42 yards per carry in the game and 3.35 yards per carry on the season. That's a far cry from what we're used to seeing from him (4.7 rushing average last year and 4.5 rushing average in his career entering 2008).
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LaDainian Tomlinson, historically the one sure thing in Fantasy, is looking mortal.
(Getty Images)
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Tack on that before that run, Tomlinson's longest jaunt on the year was for 14 yards, and you can see in the stat book just as easily on the film that he's not right. And we're not the only ones to notice -- head coach Norv Turner has realized it too, using speedster
Darren Sproles and power back
Mike Tolbert in packages over the last few games. Sproles especially has seen limited but regular work, and it's beyond third downs. Between that and
Philip Rivers leading the passing game to new heights, the Chargers have plenty of different directions with which to move the offense without involving the 29-year-old Tomlinson.
It's true that Tomlinson has started slow in each of the last four Septembers, but he never ran slow or was tackled as quickly as he has been this year. That's the reason for concern here, not what month is on the calendar. And it sure isn't the opponents he's facing (all of the Chargers' four opponents this season were letting up over 100 rush yards on average heading into this week). Until Tomlinson proves that the toe is fine -- and he hasn't done that despite the 106-yard effort in Week 4 -- expect his yardage to lean toward the pedestrian side more than the exceptional side.
So I'll put the idea in your head: Consider trading LaDainian Tomlinson. Don't trade him just to trade him, and if you do consider moving him, don't give him away.
Let's consider some real situations that owners of Tomlinson are in, and whether or not they should consider a deal. Perhaps you can relate to one of these owners. These are based on actual leagues I am in:
• In a deep 14-team league where receptions count and as many as three running backs can start each week, the team that has Tomlinson is 3-1. However, he's scraping by with Carson Palmer at quarterback and Willis McGahee/LeRon McClain as his next-best running backs. Admittedly, the owner even told me that he was worried about Tomlinson's play before drafting him, and he still thinks he's playing hurt (he's right). His receivers (Greg Jennings, Santana Moss, Lee Evans) are solid and give his team a boost. Unless he can get two really solid running backs for Tomlinson, he shouldn't give him up because his running backs are already thin.
• In a keeper league that starts two running backs, Tomlinson's owner is 2-2, needing every drop of his stats to pull out a Week 4 win. His receivers are Brandon Marshall and Chris Chambers, and his other starting running back is Thomas Jones and his depth at the position is ugly. His quarterbacks are fine, but Heath Miller is all he has at tight end. Pawning Tomlinson for a good running back, a decent reserve running back to help his depth and a great tight end would be a step in the right direction. In this particular league, the owner who has Jason Witten also has Ronnie Brown, Brandon Jacobs, Willis McGahee and Michael Pittman. A Witten, Brown or Jacobs and Pittman for Tomlinson and Miller trade would help both sides.
• In another 14-team league, LT's owner is an ugly 0-4, and a big reason for it is because his depth behind his stud is awful. DeAngelo Williams and Felix Jones are his next best running backs. His receiving corps is also a mediocre mix, but he's fine at quarterback with Eli Manning. Of course, no one in the league has great running back depth; a case can be made for the owner who has Clinton Portis, Willis McGahee and Brandon Jacobs. Unless a team stepped up and gave a pair of running backs for Tomlinson, the 0-4 owner should stay the course.
So there's an example of being winless and still holding on to Tomlinson. That owner could inquire about trades, but no one can offer him a package of good-enough running backs for him. So, he should remain steady.
• In a standard 12-team league, the owner (who I won't out, but I will say his name rhymes with Tike Treeman) who has Tomlinson is 2-2 but is fairly underwhelming at running back (Jamal Lewis, Fred Taylor and LeRon McClain). Quarterback and receiver aren't really issues for him. Only one owner has the running back depth to make a run at Tomlinson and could offer a package of Steve Slaton and Maurice Jones-Drew for Tomlinson (the owner also has Brian Westbrook and Edgerrin James). Yes, it's a bit much for Tomlinson, but it would be a win-win for both owners.
• Finally, in the Fantasy Football Open Championship league I am in (10-team format), Tomlinson's owner is expected to be 4-4 (you play two games a week). His running backs are hurting after LT (Darren McFadden, Jerious Norwood, LeRon McClain), and his receivers aren't great either (thin after Larry Fitzgerald and Dwayne Bowe). Obviously the first team to step up with a good runner and receiver for Tomlinson should receive some consideration.
In the meantime, no one here is telling you to sit Tomlinson. If you've got him, and you're happy with him, stay with him. The point I'm making is that until that toe heals, he's not going to deliver the numbers you're accustomed to, and if you can trade him for a group of players that will help your team, it's worth your time. Just keep this in mind: right now, he's not the best running back in the NFL, and there is always the chance that his trade value might only decrease from here on out.
Fantasy & Reality
Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) during the week's action.
Fantasy: Brett Favre isn't the same Brett Favre we knew in Green Bay. Favre owes Kurt Warner a fruit basket after the Cardinals quarterback had six giveaways (three interceptions, three fumbles lost) and helped set up several of Favre's six touchdown passes, a career-high. That's a performance beyond anyone's expectations, and it should restore faith in Favre and his competent receiving corps. That's two straight weeks with touchdowns for Dustin Keller, by the way.
Reality: If Aaron Rodgers' right arm is banged up, the Packers are in big trouble. Ryan Grant isn't getting it done, and I suspect we'll see more of Brandon Jackson (and maybe Kregg Lumpkin) in the coming weeks. But without a dependable running game, Green Bay has really been leaning on Rodgers, and if he's out, that team will suffer a worse fate than the Patriots minus Tom Brady. Remember when everyone was lauding the Packers? They're 2-2 now and facing some real adversity. For those owners with Rodgers, get a backup plan in place. For those owners with Grant, hope you've already got your backup ducks in a row.
Fantasy: Jay Cutler is a can't miss Fantasy quarterback at the Chiefs. We were familiar with the history of the Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium but figured that it wouldn't matter against the lowly Chiefs. We were way off. Cutler was pressured into making mistakes, and Kansas City did a nice job of limiting Brandon Marshall to his worst numbers of the season (seven catches, 77 yards, one touchdown ... OK, not so bad).
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Santana Moss and his quarterback are becoming more dependable each week.
(US Presswire)
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Reality: Santana Moss will be a factor so long as he and quarterback Jason Campbell stay healthy. As we've seen countless times, when a talented passer and receiver mesh and work in harmony in a quality offensive scheme, they'll help each other post excellent stats. Campbell is quickly rising up the list of low-end starting quarterbacks, and Moss has cemented himself as a big-play receiver who will often do exactly that. He's finally become consistent at a high level, and with games vs. St. Louis, vs. Cleveland and at Detroit on the horizon after a Week 5 tilt at Philadelphia, Moss and his quarterback will have some incredible numbers.
Fantasy: Drew Brees is nothing without Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey. Heck, even without a big-play day from Reggie Bush, Brees was able to have a monster stat line, hooking up with Lance Moore for over 100 yards on two touchdowns and second-year man Robert Meachem for another, as well as a pair of long receptions. In fact, Meachem has easily supplanted Terrance Copper and Devery Henderson as a deep threat in the Saints' offense. He's got better hands and size, and the offense will always call for a couple of long passes each week, and that will benefit Meachem. He's startable, and Moore has nowhere to go but up. You've got a couple of excellent bye-week receivers in those guys, and they have upside, which is more than what you can say for the majority of bye-week receiver candidates.
Reality: When the Raiders get receivers worth a darn, JaMarcus Russell will be a very good Fantasy quarterback. No one is starting Javon Walker or Ashley Lelie in Fantasy, and Russell isn't leaning on them or veteran Ronald Curry. But he is finding Johnnie Lee Higgins and tight end Zach Miller, and he's starting to put it all together and make some good decisions (one great example is hitting Miller on a mid-range touch pass that he took to the house against the Chargers). We might start seeing him get close to his potential late in the season, especially once Darren McFadden's toe gets well and gives him another option.
Bonus Fantasy: Sit Larry Johnson against the Broncos and Brett Favre against the Cardinals. Who in their right mind would tell you to do such a thing?
Bonus Fantasy: Sit Jason Witten against the Redskins. Who in their right mind would tell you to do such a thing?
Strategy Session
What Browns and Bengals players are safe plays for the long term?
Week 4 was supposed to be the week when the Bengals and Browns would have an honor du-ell, resulting in a ton of points. Instead, Carson Palmer's elbow was too sore to play, and the Browns' offense didn't get moving until the second half. Bottom line: Brett Favre and Kurt Warner threw for as many touchdowns in Week 4 than both teams' offenses have combined after four weeks!
It's time to do some chopping. Derek Anderson, for all of his 2007 glory, hasn't gotten it done through four weeks, and it's not hard to blame an owner for giving up on him, especially with quarterbacks like Jason Campbell and Matt Schaub starting to elevate their play. If you need the roster space, or if you just want to improve at quarterback, show Anderson the door. The only saving grace for Anderson is that his demeanor started to turn around once he led the team on some second-half drives.
All the other prominent Browns -- Jamal Lewis, Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow -- deserve to start for owners. Cleveland's offense was pretty vanilla in Week 4 as they were very balanced (25 runs for Lewis, 25 pass attempts for Anderson, which skewed Edwards and Winslow's numbers). The worse news is that their next four games are against very good defenses (a bye in Week 5, then vs. the Giants, at the Redskins, at the Jaguars and vs. the Ravens). Might be a good time to pawn off Lewis.
Heading to Southern Ohio, it's hard to trust any Bengals players, especially since they've topped 14 points once this season. Last year, they exceeded 14 points a dozen times! Despite a pair of rushing touchdowns, Chris Perry is not delivering a dependable rushing presence, as he's averaging 2.9 yards per carry and 2.9 yards per catch. That's awful. Because he's not doing his job, defenses are finding it easier to play against the pass, and that's hurt the numbers of T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Johnson. Of course, it's even easier to defend against the Bengals if Ryan Fitzpatrick is under center.
And it won't get easier for the Bengals as they are at the Cowboys next week, followed by a date at the Jets, a home game vs. the Steelers, then at the Texans and vs. the Jaguars before their bye, then vs. the Eagles, at the Steelers and vs. the Ravens. Someone better tell Ocho Cinco how to say 0-12 in Spanish.
The only trustworthy guys for Fantasy are Palmer as a platoon quarterback and Houshmandzadeh as a No. 2 receiver. Johnson should be shown the bench or the way to another team's roster. Same with Perry. Chris Henry might perk things up for the offense, but that's assuming he'll stay a good boy on and off the field. If there's a speculative play here, it's Kenny Watson, since he did well last year with the Bengals, and judging by the schedule ahead, Perry's time as a starter is about to end.
Parting shots
• Welcome back, Steve Smith. Nice work out of you and Muhsin Muhammad against a Falcons team that looks nothing like the squad that crushed two teams at the Georgia Dome already this season. Methinks the matchups have something to do with it -- Atlanta beat Detroit and Kansas City at home, lost at Tampa Bay and at Carolina.
•: So much for Dallas looking unstoppable. Marion Barber was stunningly held in check by a Redskins run defense that really stepped up, and Tony Romo seemed almost aloof in the game, like he wasn't really into it. Not good since he attempted 47 passes, 17 of which went to a double- and triple-teamed Terrell Owens. Yeah, he had his moments, but he almost looked distracted.
• I still don't buy Miles Austin. But I'm getting closer.
• The Chargers have allowed opposing tight ends to score touchdowns each week this season. Week 5's tight end du jour: Anthony Fasano. Get him ready.
• Hurricane Ike Update: Thanks to everyone wishing my parents well after they evacuated Galveston, Texas a few weeks back, especially those of you in Austin, Texas, that recommended a bunch of restaurants. And a special thanks to the reader, who for now will remain nameless, that had a relative go to my parents' house and survey the damage hours after Ike hit. My folks will be fine, and they're insured and safe, etc. They're also dedicated to helping restore the island.
The whole thing got me thinking about what the Saints, and all of New Orleans, must have gone through when Katrina ravaged the city in 2005. My parents can't even concentrate on getting their affairs in order; I can only imagine what the Saints' players went through back then. I mean, no wonder that the team was crippled.
In related thoughts, here's hoping that the Texans experience some normalcy, especially with four straight home games -- all against weak defenses -- coming their way. I think it would be a really, really good idea for you to check into what it would take in trade to acquire Andre Johnson, Steve Slaton and Matt Schaub in your league. Aside from Slaton, the value is pretty low right now, especially Johnson's. One guy in our department was lamenting about him on Monday. I'm already working the feelers.
• The Titans might win 14 games this year. Their defense might begin to be mentioned as one of the best we've seen in five years. I am not joking one bit.
Do you have a question for Dave? Send your thoughts to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and we'll post the best responses. Be sure to put Attn: Fantasy & Reality in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.
