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Dave Richard

Four Downs: Williams a prolific Panther

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


On a day when Fantasy mainstays like Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Andre Johnson, Clinton Portis and Isaac Bruce put up major statistics, leave it to a guy who totaled 225 yards and zero scores in his first four games to steal the spotlight with a career-best effort.

Adding more proof that the right player on the right team in the right matchup will do wonders for Fantasy, Panthers running back DeAngelo Williams (not to be confused with his rookie backfield mate Jonathan Stewart) ran over the Chiefs for a three-touchdown day with 123 rushing yards. Williams scored two of his scores on the ground, one from 10 yards out and the other from 32 yards out, and hauled in his lone reception of the day for 25 yards. His 148 total yards were more than the 127 net yards the entire Kansas City offense had!

It appeared as though DeAngelo Williams was beginning to take a back seat to Jonathan Stewart. (AP)  
It appeared as though DeAngelo Williams was beginning to take a back seat to Jonathan Stewart. (AP)  
"It's been great, with two new tackles playing this week, for them to block the way they did and our running backs to run the way they did," Panthers head coach John Fox said after the game. "Jon has gotten the touchdowns and DeAngelo has been playing extremely well. (Sunday), he really hit the holes hard and made some nice runs."

While we tend to think this had more to do with a sloppy Kansas City run defense, we also must give credit to Williams, who has never done this well in an NFL game. But take note of the carry distribution: Williams had 20 while Stewart had 19, and both had so many because the Panthers built a huge lead and sat on the ball. The Panthers attempted one fourth-quarter pass. With a challenging game at Tampa Bay on the horizon, don't expect each Carolina running back to have as many chances. And, don't be swayed by the 2007 stats Williams had at Tampa Bay last year -- he had 121 yards on 20 carries with two touchdowns, but it was in a Week 17 effort that saw the Bucs resting their key players.

Meanwhile, the Fantasy running back everyone should be keeping tabs on this week is Chiefs star rusher Larry Johnson, who had his absolute worst day as a pro -- and that's saying something considering he already has a 22-yard effort already on the year.

Johnson had 2 yards rushing. We're not joking. He had seven carries and zero receptions. Again, not joking.

"You just have to learn from it and try and do better next week," a dejected Johnson said after the game. "Games like this are going to happen. It's a young team, and this is what is going to happen when you rebuild."

Johnson, a straight shooter, cannot be pleased with the play calling after he was given just seven touches. Unquestionably the best player on the Chiefs, Johnson yelled out to the media after his 22-yard game earlier this season. He was rewarded with a pair of 20-plus carry games that resulted in 100-yard totals with three scores, but that streak ended Sunday. What will he do now?

More importantly, what will Fantasy owners do now? They've got two weeks to figure it out -- Kansas City is on a bye in Week 6 before a home date vs. the run-stuffing Titans.

First down

Kyle Orton. Who knew?

When the Bears named Orton their starting quarterback during the preseason, the consensus was that he got the nod over Rex Grossman because he wouldn't turn the ball over to the point where it would cost the team games. With the receiving corps the Bears have, no one expected Orton to be a regular over 200 yards passing.

But here's Orton, who followed up a 268-yard, two-TD effort vs. the Bucs and a 199-yard, three-TD game vs. the Eagles with an impressive 334-yard, two-TD outing at the Lions. The seven touchdowns he has over the last three weeks, and the season, are more than Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb have. You can look it up!

Normally, when a quarterback surprises with a strong output against a bad defense, we shrug it off and call it an anomaly -- especially when his receiving corps is buoyed by an undrafted slot receiver, a guy known more for his kick returns than his receiving skills and a re-tread trying to get his career back on track and didn't even play Sunday. But Orton's done well three weeks in a row -- that's what we call a trend. Additionally, as defenses focus on stopping rookie Matt Forte (whose yardage stats have not coincidentally gone south each of the last three weeks), Orton's left to throw against mediocre coverage. What we have here is a quarterback taking what the defense gives him.

With another simple matchup at the Falcons in Week 6, owners might just be wise to go with Orton as anything from a one-week replacement to a short-term option over the likes of busts Carson Palmer, Marc Bulger and Derek Anderson.

Second down

Both Manning brothers came off a bye in Week 5 and threw two touchdowns, but Eli had more yards (barely) and fewer turnovers. And, he did it this week without his best receiver.

Against a Seattle defense that looked lost and tired, Eli Manning rocked for 267 yards and two touchdowns, charring the secondary on deep lobs to Domenik Hixon, Amani Toomer and Sinorice Moss. Peyton Manning, meanwhile, struggled for most of his time against the Texans but was given a golden opportunity to rally his club thanks to a Sage Rosenfels turnover and end Week 5 with a good enough stat line to help owners out.

Both Manning brothers were good in Week 5, and both have been red-hot so far this season. Eli has six passing touchdowns; Peyton has five. Eli has 1,032 passing yards, Peyton has ... well, 1,031. Guess it's pretty close ... until you look at interceptions: Eli has one, Peyton has five. And, Eli has a dominating run game and talented offensive line; Peyton is looking for Joseph Addai to start running with authority and an offensive line busted up by injuries.

So I'll leave this one to you: Would you rather have Peyton or Eli? You could e-mail me at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com and tell me who you'd rather have and why. For now, they're pretty much identical, expect one was a first-round pick and the other was a middle-round pick.

Hmm. Maybe they're not so identical after all.

Third down

Let's talk run defenses. Entering Week 5, the top unit was Philadelphia's, which was limiting opposing running games to 53.8 yards per game. No. 2 was Baltimore, which was giving up 69.7 yards per game.

One did well, one got thrashed.

The Eagles have normally been good vs. the Redskins run game, but Clinton Portis changed that Sunday, notching his second straight 100-yard game with a 29-carry, 145-yard, one-touchdown effort. Opting to go with balance, Redskins coach Jim Zorn ran Portis as many times as quarterback Jason Campbell threw, and it exposed the Eagles' run defense and took away the sting of their pass rush. It was Portis' best game since a 196-yard beating of the Jets in Week 9 last year.

"He doesn't do all that running by himself," Zorn said of his star running back. "Our offensive line, they were coming off the ball, they were really doing a nice job communicating. It wasn't as though they were playing a real soft defense, either."

The best news for Portis is that his next three games are against Cleveland, Detroit and St. Louis. He has a chance to top 145 rush yards in each contest!

Meanwhile, the Ravens unplugged the most electric rookie running back in the league. When the dust settled from Week 5, Chris Johnson had his lowest output of his young career, gaining 44 rush yards and 4 receiving yards. It's not like the Titans didn't try to get him going -- he had 18 rushes and two receptions. It's that the Ravens' defense was quick to keep him under wraps.

Like Portis, Johnson's load gets easy. Following a Week 6 bye, he's got games vs. Kansas City, Indianapolis and Green Bay. Don't expect the flashy first-year phenom to see such low stats again.

Fourth down

Let's give some credit where it's due: The Patriots almost looked like themselves again.

While it's for certain that Matt Cassel is no Tom Brady, he looked the part for much of the contest at San Francisco and overcame a rough start against a strong defense to help pace New England.

Cassel threw for a career-high 259 yards and was mostly efficient save for two ugly interceptions. The best part of his afternoon was an on-the-money deep ball that went a good 50 yards in the air to an in-stride Randy Moss behind two 49ers defensive backs. He also made great use of Wes Welker, connecting on eight short-area passes that he manufactured into 73 yards.

That's what we've been waiting to see.

The only disheartening thing about New England's game was the impossible-to-figure-out running game which saw four different running backs get at least five carries. Sammy Morris led the way with 63 rush yards, but Kevin Faulk scored both touchdowns (both from 2 yards out). And Laurence Maroney -- the guy a lot of people drafted high thinking that the Patriots would lean on him -- had 26 yards on 10 carries.

The end result here is that the Patriots' overall philosophy hasn't changed: Find the opponents' weaknesses and attack. That's what New England did to San Francisco on Sunday and it resulted in a win -- their third of the season.

Don't look now -- Cassel's commanding a 3-1 ship, just a half-game behind first-place Buffalo.

What are your thoughts from this week? See anything that jumped off the screen? Let us know -- e-mail us at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Four Downs in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
Rashard Mendenhall
PUP list in Mendenhall's future
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
2:15 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Mendenhall tore his right ACL in Week 17 of last season; recovery time for such injuries is anywhere from nine months to a year.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He'll likely get the first crack at starting in place of Mendenhall. There's still a lot of time between now and the regular season, but for now it's probably safe to expect Mendenhall to not be at even close to 100 percent to start the year, which will absolutely impact his Fantasy value. By August, you might be drafting Mendenhall as a middle- to late-round sleeper you'll have to sit on for a while. We'll keep you posted on Mendenhall as best as we can.

Randy Moss
Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
10:10 AM
News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to."
Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Calvin Johnson
Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
9:39 AM
News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.
Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

DeSean Jackson
Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
9:36 AM
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.
Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Isaac Redman
Redman in line to start for Steelers?
Isaac Redman, RB, PIT
2:23 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. That would open the door for Isaac Redman to be the starting rusher entering training camp.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He's also stepped up while working with Mendenhall and without him, though his one other start in 2011 was a flop (61 total yards, no touchdowns vs. Tennessee). By August we might recommend drafting Redman with a pick in Round 6 or 7 as a good early-season starting option with potential to be a quality Fantasy choice for the entire season. We'll see how the Steelers' run game shakes out.

Steve Slaton
Slaton, Dolphins likely parting ways
Steve Slaton, RB, MIA
12:56 PM
News: The Palm Beach Post reports that RB Steve Slaton is not expected to return to the Dolphins in 2012. Slaton played in three games this season with zero starts after being picked up on waivers before Week 4. He had 17 carries for 64 yards (3.8 average) with one touchdown and a long of 28 and also returned three kickoffs for 85 yards. Slaton was signed as insurance early in the season when both Reggie Bush (groin) and Daniel Thomas (hamstring) battled injuries.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Slaton plays in 2012, but he likely has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in all leagues on Draft Day.

Doug Baldwin
Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
11:14 AM
News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”
Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Hines Ward
Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
9:53 AM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on the future of Hines Ward. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported previously that if the Steelers did decide to release Ward, he was unaware of it. NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report. Ward's 2012 salary is high and he's expected to at least take a significant pay cut, if not get released altogether. Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Josh Morgan
Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
9:49 AM
News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

Jeremy Shockey
Panthers could bring back Shockey
Jeremy Shockey, TE, CAR
9:46 AM
News: The Charlotte Observer considers re-signing free agent TE Jeremy Shockey a "high priority" this offseason. Shockey was the No. 2 TE for the Panthers behind Greg Olsen, and he had a productive season when he caught 37 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns and missed only one game to injury.
Analysis: Though not the same receiver he was a decade ago, Shockey still is a dependable target, particularly in the red zone. If his asking price is too high, Panthers could turn to Gary Barnidge, who was having a great 2011 camp before breaking his ankle. Keep an eye on what happens with Shockey, and if he returns to the Panthers as expected he would be a No. 2 Fantasy TE on Draft Day worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

 
 
 
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