So, did anyone catch LaDainian Tomlinson's effort in Week 5? How'd he look? Slow? Tentative? The opposite of amazing?
Oh, come on. If you're a regular reader of this space (and if you aren't, how's your 1-4 team doing?), you knew this was coming. Last week, I went out on the thinnest limb I've ever gone on and called Tomlinson slower than usual. I assumed that it was mostly because of the sprained toe injury he's still recovering from. I suggested to owners who needed to make a move to fill a lineup hole and start winning games to trade him away for a couple of quality players. And in came the hate mail. I was called every name in the book, and many suggested I should consider getting my brain examined at the local mental hospital. Again.
Sunday, Tomlinson went up against a Dolphins run defense nobody thought would slow him down. Not even I thought he'd be bottled up as badly as he was. Final stat line: 12 rushes, 35 yards and five catches for 22 yards. No touchdowns.
Before the game even ended, the e-mails came rushing in. But it wasn't hate mail. It wasn't love mail, either. It was excuse mail.
There's something wrong with the Chargers' offensive line. They didn't block well enough for LT.
Flying from the West Coast to the East Coast has awful effects on the visiting team.
The Dolphins dominated the time of possession, leaving little time for the Chargers to move the ball.
Twelve carries?!?!?!?!
All valid points, but the fact remains that when Tomlinson ran the ball, he didn't run with his trademark speed, quickness, elusiveness and burst. He. Was. Slow.
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Would you dare bench Joseph Addai in Week 6 vs. Baltimore?
(US Presswire)
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"LaDainian has been in and out of every one of our games," Chargers coach Norv Turner said after the loss. "He comes off the field five or six times when he gets his toe twisted, gets fallen on. He pushes off in certain ways and he has problems with it, and
Darren (Sproles) has given us a good change up."
So let's change gears here. I've already told you to consider alternatives to Tomlinson if you own him. But what if you own another stud Fantasy player who hasn't been meeting expectations? When is it right to do what some analysts will tell you is unthinkable and bench your Fantasy stud?
Here is some criteria:
1. What's the matchup? The steadfast rule for all things Fantasy. The player is only as good as his matchup will let him be. If the matchup is easy, then the guy's a start. Simple as that. But if the matchup is challenging or difficult, then there's some question.
2. How has the player been playing? Not as important as the matchup, but close. If the player has been playing poorly, then he's harder to trust. If he's been rocking, then he's easier to trust. Thing is, if he's been rocking, then teams are going to be focusing on him and will try to, uh, un-rock him. Exhibit A: Santana Moss from Week 5 at Philadelphia.
3. What kind of opportunity is the player getting? If this is a running back, is he getting 15-plus touches per game? If it's a quarterback, is the offense catered to him or his running back? If it's a receiver, how many balls are thrown in his direction each week?
4. Is there any relevant history? Pretty self explanatory, and a huge amount of information up for grabs in games involving division rivals.
5. What is the projected game plan? What do we think the offense will do to try and win the game? Usually, a team will find the weak spot in the opponent and go after it. It only makes sense.
6. What impact will their teammates have? This is overlooked often in Fantasy. A running back needs the passing game to complement his game. The receiver needs the running back and quarterback to be going at a high level in order to reach big stats. And they all need an offensive line to set the stage up front and put the wheels in motion on every single play. Part of the reason for the Colts' uneven numbers is their offensive line, which is down to second- and third-stringers in three of five spots. The O-line is always a good indicator of how a team is going to play. And, part of the success of the Dolphins' ridiculous 'Wildcat' play is the offensive line making space for Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams to do what they do.
So, just as an exercise for everyone still reading and not going on to the fun parts of this column, let's do an early check on what we should do with, say, Joseph Addai in Week 6.
Matchup: Home vs. Baltimore, a defense that hasn't allowed a rushing touchdown yet this season and a 100-yard rusher in over 20 games. Addai hasn't rushed for over 100 yards in his last 13 games (including postseason) but has four touchdowns in his last three. The Ravens are top-ranked vs. the run through four games and are allowing 64.0 rush yards per game. But they've limited Chris Perry, Jamal Lewis, Rashard Mendenhall and Chris Johnson/LenDale White. No question, Addai will be their biggest test.
Recent play: You can't call Addai a bust even though he's not delivering monster yardage totals. He's topped 4.0 yards per carry in his last two games, and the 1.3 average he had against the Vikings in Week 2 was because he got the Vikings.
Opportunity: Addai is starting, but he's not getting 20 rushes per game, and hasn't been since late November/early December of 2007. His receptions are also slowly piling up (five in four games).
History: Plenty of it here. Addai played at Baltimore last season and mustered up just 32 yards on 13 carries, but added 49 receiving yards on three catches. But, he totaled three touchdowns (two rushing, one receiving). That's pretty significant, but so is this: In his last three games vs. 3-4 defenses, Addai has 131 rush yards on 48 carries (2.7 avg.). That's bad. But he's got 132 receiving yards on 15 catches (8.8 avg.). That's good. And, he's got those three touchdowns against the Ravens (the other games were battles with San Diego). That's obviously good.
Game plan: Indianapolis will likely throw -- and why wouldn't they? But that doesn't mean that Addai won't be involved; he can catch the ball out of the backfield and will still get some runs. Even with the infamous Colts' stretch play, though, he'll have trouble finding room against the Ravens.
Teammates: The Colts' O-line is banged up and just barely effective enough to help him. He still has yet to find a hole big enough to run for more than 15 yards. He does have a good passing game as part of the Indy offense.
So here's where I stop being a Fantasy analyst and become a teacher or something: Would you start Joseph Addai this week? I want to hear from Addai owners -- e-mail me at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com and tell me what you'll do.
As for our take on Addai this week ... keep in touch leading up to Week 6.
Fantasy & Reality
Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) before and during the week's action.
Fantasy: You've got nothing to worry about with Santana Moss. Except for when he's double covered and unable to catch any passes thrown his way. The cold spell against the Eagles continues on, but a Week 6 game vs. St. Louis should make up for things.
Reality: Steve Slaton is an uncaged animal of some sort. Even with a slow start against the Colts, he ran for 93 rush yards and a pair of touchdowns. This was the first of four straight gem performances we expect to see from him. The countdown is on -- get ready to sell high on Slaton in three weeks.
Fantasy: Matt Hasselbeck will be better than ever with his receivers healthy. Bobby Engram played well in his first game back, but Deion Branch left the game early with an injury and no one else really stepped up for Seattle until the game got out of hand. The good news is that Green Bay plays at Seattle next week.
Reality: With Michael Turner, it's all about the matchup. In games against the Top 15 run defenses in the NFL, Turner has stunk. In games against the lower 15 run defenses, Turner has been awesome. Week 6 will see Turner going up against the fourth-ranked run defense of the Bears, in Atlanta. If you don't know what to do, you better revisit the little Fantasy lesson I started this whole mess of a column with.
Fantasy: Starting hurt quarterbacks like Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers or Carson Palmer can be bad news. Ever get the feeling that sometimes coaches overstate the nature of their injured players only to try and gain a competitive edge against an opponent? Like last week, it seemed like Rodgers' arm and elbow were about to fall off into Lake Michigan. But on Sunday, the guy looked and played like a hurt but long-standing 16-year veteran quarterback with a knack for coming up big in clutch games. Rodgers and Roethlisberger each topped 300 yards and threw three touchdowns, while Palmer threw for 217 yards and two scores. Can't complain, unless you benched them. (I did start Kitna over Roethlisberger in one league. Oofah.)
Reality: Kyle Orton is a legit Fantasy quarterback. You can read more about this from yesterday's Four Downs story, but the bottom line is that as long as the Bears' opponents try to stop Matt Forte, Orton will find a way to move the offense. He's at least a quality No. 2 Fantasy option and a good bye-week replacement.
Bonus Fantasy: DeAngelo Williams is a legit starting Fantasy running back. Tack Williams' three-TD, 148-total-yard performance to the long list of players that benefited from facing the Chiefs (how the heck did Denver lose to those guys?). Williams is a good player, but he still split carries in the game and wasn't exactly a rushing wizard in his first couple of weeks. I wouldn't trust him next week at Tampa Bay, maybe the week after vs. New Orleans. And, just to be fair and balanced around here, nice pre-Week 5 call.
Strategy Session
Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall are somehow not scoring my Fantasy team oodles of points each week. Should I bail out?
Short answer: No way. Longer answer: Read on.
After a hot start, Cutler and Marshall have come back down to earth; Cutler has one touchdown in each of his last two games, both against Cover-2 defenses. The yardage has been great in one game, good in the other, but in the great game, Cutler's trio of mistakes erased some of those Fantasy numbers. No such turnovers in the good game. So he's still delivering decent stat lines, but not exceptional ones.
Why? Look no further than Marshall's numbers. He's been bracketed by opposing defenses and not being given the chance to make a lot of plays. In the last two weeks, he's totaled 10 catches for 102 yards with a touchdown as part of Cutler's better stat week. That total stinks in comparison to the house of fire he resembled in his first two regular-season contests.
We're also seeing some inconsistent stats from rookie Eddie Royal, who had some solid gains in Week 4 against the Chiefs (he finished with over 100 yards) but has otherwise done bupkis since Week 2 (really, since Week 1). He'll also do bupkis in the next two weeks as he left Week 5 early with a left ankle injury.
So we agree that Marshall and Royal have slowed down. Factor in that Cutler targeted them a total of 38 times over the Broncos' last two games, and now you can see why his numbers have fallen off. They're not making all the plays afforded to them. Throw in the Broncos' run game being a joke -- Selvin Young, what happened to you?! -- and you've got your complete answer. Opponents are guarding against the Denver pass game and not so much the run game.
Expect Mike Shanahan to fix his rushing attack, and it might coincide with rookie Ryan Torain's return to the field from an elbow injury. No one should trade Marshall or Cutler right now, but if anyone in your league is offering one or both, see if you can work a little magic and get them without giving up a ton.
Parting shots
• I can only try to explain Larry Johnson's Week 5 game. Coming off a pair of 100-yard games with three rushing TDs in his last two, Johnson was on the road against a Panthers run defense that had beaten back LaDainian Tomlinson, Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner in succession. Additionally, Chiefs rookie left tackle Branden Albert was hurt and would be replaced by Herb Taylor, who likely wouldn't make half the rosters in the league. Seemed like a guy to sit, but the saving grace for LJ was his recent play and the fact that the Chiefs feed him the ball.
End result? Seven carries, 2 yards. Chiefs' offensive coordinator Chan Gailey did us wrong! Felix Jones, Ladell Betts, Ahman Green, Ahmad Bradshaw, Warrick Dunn, Garrett Wolfe and ... ugh ... Cedric Benson all had more carries. And more yards. We can predict matchups, game plans and performances, but we can never predict a 20-touch guy to get seven carries. That's just wrong.
Again, how in blazes did the Chiefs beat the Broncos last week?!
• The Lions are the worst team in the NFL. I hate to say it, but it's true. I love Rod Marinelli as a coach and motivator, but he's in over his head. The defense he's built should be much better than this. Much better. They're awful!
The offense is worse in my mind. Let's review: From Day 1, the Lions say they're going to be a running team even though they have a pair of dominant receivers in Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams. Then they go through the offseason and preseason with only rookie Kevin Smith as the only semi-legit rushing threat on the roster. It's not until they sign the luggage-less Rudi Johnson that they have someone who's done it before. Problem is, Rudi is older and banged up and unfamiliar with the offense. Now there isn't a single team in the NFL that respects what the Lions do offensively because they can slam the run with five or six guys and blitz Jon Kitna into mistakes. What a waste of two terrific receiving talents in Johnson and Williams. You'd think they'd fix the problems during the bye week and come out on all cylinders, but they didn't. And unless Drew Stanton is the answer (I doubt it), the Lions are back where they were in 2002 before they drafted Joey Harrington.
Like I said, I really like Marinelli, but this team is a shipwreck.
• Trent Edwards = Bills wins. J.P. Losman = Bills losses. We knew this already, didn't we?
• Sage Rosenfels: Way to lose the job you just won in the same game. As my friend Joe told me this morning, that's the kind of stuff they tell you not to do in PEE-WEE FOOTBALL.
• Nice game, Bill Belichick. I thought you'd have more sacks on J.T. O'Sullivan, not to mention fewer touchdown passes, but the club's balance of doing what they have to do on offense and attacking as much as possible on defense worked out well. It's just as hard to believe that Tom Brady's not under center as it is that the Pats are 3-1.
• A lot of readers thought I said what I said about Tomlinson to be different, controversial or 'out there.' Give me a break -- this is Fantasy Football, not supermarket tabloids. Look, I watch a lot of football because the majority of you can't. My job is to watch football and report and analyze and help you win your games. I do this job with passion, and I do it with all honesty. I hold nothing back. I saw Tomlinson at less than full speed several weeks ago and never recover. That's why I said what I said.
And it's not about being right or wrong. I promise you that the week Tomlinson shows off his trademark speed, regardless of the statistical output, I'll tell you what I see and slam myself five different ways in the process. But for now, the guy's not playing like himself. I blame the toe. Plan your Fantasy roster accordingly.
• Coaches Haslett, Saunders and Venturi: Good luck.
• Man, it must stink to be a Cubs fan. I wouldn't know. Go White Sox!!
• When this season is over, the 'Wildcat' formation and all of its nuances and mutations might be the thing every team talks about adding to the playbook. It would drive defensive coordinators batty, but it would bring back some of the Fantasy value to running backs. Even if you don't own Ronnie Brown, Fantasy owners should root for this play to succeed.
Do you have a question for Dave? Send your thoughts to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and we'll post the best responses. Be sure to put Attn: Fantasy & Reality in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.
