History Lessons: Another Bolts-Pats showdown

You've read a lot about LaDainian Tomlinson this week as we've chronicled his play this season. Tomlinson & Co. host the Patriots in Week 6, and lucky for us, there's plenty of history between the rivals, so we can start to lay out an expectation for many of the important Fantasy personnel involved.

This will be the fourth time the Chargers and Patriots will meet in 22 months. The three previous meetings have all been Patriots wins, with two in the playoffs. There are significant personnel changes on both benches, but the coaching staffs and philosophies virtually remain the same, making the data useful.

With Chris Chambers nicked up, Vincent Jackson could be a big factor Sunday night. (US Presswire)

Let's start with the man of the moment, Tomlinson. If you weren't already deterred by his toe slowing him down, you're not going to like that he hasn't played well against the Patriots since the 2006 playoff game where he burned them for 123 rush yards, 64 receiving yards and two rushing touchdowns. This game was at home, and Tomlinson and the Chargers were coming off a bye. In the next meeting, Week 2 of last season, Tomlinson was stifled for 43 yards on 18 carries and 15 receiving yards on four catches. He barely played in the 2007 playoff game with a sprained MCL. Considering the state of his game and his offensive line, the Patriots should be able to contain him, even though they're allowing 4.9 rush yards per carry (thank you, Wildcat formation).

The combination of an ineffective rushing attack and the Chargers playing from behind in two of their last three in the series led to many opportunities for Philip Rivers to throw the ball. However, the Patriots managed to corral him; in those last two games, Rivers threw two touchdowns, four interceptions and a fumble, with an average of 195.0 passing yards. New England's pass defense is giving up on average 175.2 pass yards per game and has allowed one quarterback to top 225 yards.

Those numbers don't bode very well for the Chargers' receivers, and history is also working against them. The Patriots did let Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers each get to 90 receiving yards in the 2007 playoff meeting, but that's the best the Bolts receivers have done through this three-game stretch. Chambers is actually unlikely to play with an ankle sprain suffered last week, so that hurts the Chargers' chances to be successful with the pass that much more.

Antonio Gates' history against New England is slightly more palatable; he has 13 catches for 138 yards and a score in two games in which he was healthy (he was playing hurt in last year's playoff loss and ended the game with 17 yards on two catches). New England has allowed one touchdown to a tight end this year -- Anthony Fasano caught a Ronnie Brown pass (thanks again, Wildcat formation).

Breaking down the Patriots' history against the Chargers isn't as easy, mostly because a certain quarterback who played in the previous three meetings will be recovering from his knee surgery this past Monday. But if there's one thing the Patriots have proven since Tom Brady's season-ending injury, it's that they're staying aggressive with their game plans.

That's important to note because of the nine touchdowns the Patriots offense has scored on the Chargers in the span we're spotlighting, seven have come through the air. And heading into their Week 6 matchup, no defense has allowed more passing touchdowns this season than the Chargers with 10.

Randy Moss had 105 yards on eight catches with two touchdowns in the '07 regular-season game, but was held to a single 18-yard reception in last year's playoff meeting. Wes Welker fared better in both games with 91 yards on eight catches in Week 2 and 56 yards and a TD on seven catches in the playoff game. Both began to show signs of life last week at San Francisco, a possible result of getting on the same page with quarterback Matt Cassel during the Week 4 bye.

The Chargers have also been struggling to contain tight ends. Only until last week did the Bolts stop opposing tight ends on scoring on them. With Benjamin Watson returning to the fold (and targeted for a touchdown last week) and scoring on them in their regular-season meeting last season, he's a candidate for Fantasy owners to start in Week 6.

But what about New England's running game? Despite the lack of touchdowns, this was the secret part of their success in beating San Diego twice last year. In the regular season, Laurence Maroney and Sammy Morris totaled 25 carries for 128 yards and a touchdown. In the postseason, Maroney did the heavy lifting himself (as he did in all the Pats' late-season games), rushing 25 times for 122 yards and a touchdown. Pretty similar numbers, eh? San Diego's run defense has been pretty good, but they were diced by Ronnie Brown (Wildcat formation again!) last week and struggled with the Panthers' run-first approach earlier this season. To their credit, they are the only team that is ranked in the bottom half of NFL run defenses that have given up just two rushing touchdowns -- but that's because teams are throwing and scoring on them.

The fourth meeting between these teams should be interesting. If there is to be a lot of scoring in this game, expect it to start with the quarterbacks, not the running backs.

Can Indy pick apart Baltimore again?

If not for the Patriots-Chargers showdown, all eyes would be focused on the meeting between the Ravens and Colts this Sunday. It's the matchup between the incredible defensive unit led by Ray Lewis vs. the talented offensive unit quarterbacked by Peyton Manning. Manning has met Lewis' Ravens six times in his career and has won the last four meetings.

Joseph Addai faces a defense that has yet to allow a rushing TD in 2008. (US Presswire)

But we're only going to focus on their last two meetings: A regular-season game in 2007 and a playoff game in 2006, both in Baltimore, and both very different games. The Ravens' defense was at full strength for the playoff game and had a quality offense to boot. For last year's game, the Ravens were without both starting cornerbacks and were mired in an offensive mess that ultimately forced a coaching change. With that nugget of info, you can surely take a guess at how the Colts' offense fared in both games.

The Colts managed 15 points -- on five field goals -- in the playoff game, and 44 points -- six touchdowns and a safety -- in last year's contest.

The combination of the thin secondary and poor offense gave Manning all he needed to exploit the Ravens. Avoiding their pass rush, Manning made Baltimore pay with a heavy workload to Anthony Gonzalez resulting in 134 yards on six catches with two touchdowns. Reggie Wayne was involved too (42 yards on two catches with a score), but the mismatch of Gonzalez on a less talented cornerback gave the Colts two long touchdowns. And get this -- the big, bad Ravens defense didn't sack or pick off Manning once.

The Colts will be hard pressed to find such a matchup this week, although cornerback Samari Rolle is out with a neck injury and will be replaced by the serviceable Corey Ivy. As such, they might find the passing tough to come by like they did in their 2006 postseason win. In that game, Manning completed just half of his passes, threw two interceptions and no touchdowns. He did this despite having the services of Wayne, tight end Dallas Clark and a healthy Marvin Harrison. Now that's good defense.

Speaking of good defense, the Ravens are ranked No. 1 in the NFL against the pass, allowing 128.5 pass yards per game. They've given up just three passing touchdowns and have seven interceptions in four games, a ratio beat only by the Titans. That's bad news for the Colts, who are struggling to be dominant in the pass game, but there's more bad news: The Ravens are also ranked No. 1 in the NFL against the run. They have yet to allow a touchdown this year on the ground and haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 22 games. Now that's good defense.

That's potentially bad news for Joseph Addai, except for the fact that Addai did the unthinkable in their meeting last season and scored three touchdowns (two rushing, one receiving), two of which were set up by Baltimore turnovers deep in its own territory. It's not news to anyone when takeaways factor into a monster scoring game (just ask Brett Favre coming off his six-touchdown game).

Addai's yardage in the two games against Baltimore are cause for concern. In his career, he's totaled 71 yards on 31 carries, an awful 2.3 yards per carry average. He's actually made his mark as a receiver, though, catching six passes for 71 yards (a much better 11.8 average). Look for Addai to have some tough running in the game, but be an outlet for Manning. As for his chances to score, just remember that Baltimore hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher. Even with Addai scoring in each of his last three games, he's at best 50-50 to be good for a score.

Debunking DeAngelo

Fantasy owners (and Chiefs defenders) were caught off guard by Panthers running back DeAngelo Williams' 148-total-yard, three-TD game last week. Since then, owners have put him under the microscope and are reconsidering his Fantasy value. In the process, they've seen that Williams rushed for 121 yards and two touchdowns in his game at Tampa Bay last season.

But before you go and start him, here's the footnote to that game: The game took place in Week 17, and Williams and the Panthers played a Bucs team with nothing to play for. As such, key defenders like Jermaine Phillips and Barrett Ruud were inactive and others like Derrick Brooks, Cato June, Kevin Carter and Chris Hovan were long gone after the first couple of series. Of the 121 yards Williams had, 42 were in the first half and both touchdowns came in the second half.

A better gauge of Williams' potential against the Bucs might be considered in the cumulative stats he's had in the other three games he's played against them: 23 rushing yards on 13 carries and 48 receiving yards on four catches with a touchdown.

Food for thought

Because historical data is just part of the equation in determining whether or not a Fantasy option is good or bad, the following notes are more 'for your information' than actual suggestions on starts and sits for the week.

Bye-week banter

History suggests ...

Do you have a Fantasy Football question? Send your thoughts to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and we'll get to as many as we can. Be sure to put Attn: History Lessons in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.