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Scott White

Dear Mr. Fantasy: Panic setting in with QBs

By | Fantasy Writer


Do you have a question? Send your thoughts to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and we'll address as many as we can. Put Attn: Dear Mr. Fantasy in the subject field. Include your name, hometown and state.

Oh, those fickle quarterbacks. Just when you start to trust them, they go and break your heart.

Yes, I'm looking at you Kyle Orton and Matt Schaub.

With so many reliable options dropping off the Fantasy map, you might begin to overvalue some of the few that remain.

Mr. Fantasy says you shouldn't. I tend to agree.

I have Matt Schaub as my quarterback. My running backs are Marion Barber, Marshawn Lynch and Ronnie Brown. Should I trade Lynch or Brown for a quarterback like Jake Delhomme or go and try to pick up Sage Rosenfels or Chad Pennington, who are free agents? Quarterbacks give you the most points in my league. -- Brian Hogan

Sage Rosenfels likely won't be much worse than most other quarterbacks you could start in Week 10. (US Presswire)  
Sage Rosenfels likely won't be much worse than most other quarterbacks you could start in Week 10. (US Presswire)  
SW: Quarterbacks give you the most points in most leagues, Brian. The reason they have less Fantasy value than running backs is because they compare so closely to each other, making them easier to replace. Your situation serves as another prime example. In most leagues, Pennington actually has more points than Delhomme. So does the now-injured Matt Schaub, meaning you can expect close to the same from Rosenfels, his replacement. I think you'll have a much easier time finding a replacement quarterback every week than trying to fill the gaping hole you'll create by trading Lynch or Brown. Forget the trade and try to scoop up both Rosenfels and Pennington, probably in that order.

Who should I start: Jay Cutler or Chad Pennington? Cutler has not been putting up great numbers with all the interceptions the past few weeks. Pennington is starting to take off. Also, at wide receiver I have Greg Jennings, Bernard Berrian, Vincent Jackson and Donnie Avery. I am pretty sure about Jennings and Berrian. Should I start Jackson or Avery? I can only have three wide receivers. -- Frazier Smith, Kansas City, Mo.

SW: Well, it's easy to say Pennington has become a "hot" Fantasy commodity while Cutler has gone "cold," but before you fall into the trap of assuming Pennington has now passed Cutler, you might want to take a closer look at the numbers. The two quarterbacks began the season on opposite ends of the spectrum, remember. Pennington has, in fact, become a consistent Fantasy option, topping 280 yards passing in four straight games. But touchdowns remain the name of the game in Fantasy, and with the way the Dolphins run their offense, you can't count on Pennington for more than one per game. He has only two multiple-touchdown performances, and one came way back in Week 1. Cutler at least has a chance for two touchdowns each week, and a two-touchdown, three-interception performance nets just as many Fantasy points as a one-touchdown, zero-interception performance. Pennington has become only as good as Cutler with his recent play, and since Cutler obviously has more upside, you have to stick with him for now.

As for your receivers, Jennings and Berrian have become must-start options, as you suggest, but Jackson seems like the clear choice to start over Avery. I realize Avery has gotten plenty of attention recently as a Fantasy breakout, but you have to remember he plays with a quarterback who has only one 200-yard game this season. He simply doesn't have enough opportunity to contribute game-breaking performances. Since the Chargers play the Chiefs this week, your decision becomes even more obvious, but I can't think of too many situations where I'd rather start Avery than Jackson.

I have a few tough choices for Week 10 and thought you might be able to steer me in some kind of direction. Who should I start at wide receiver? I need three. I have Matt Jones, Ted Ginn Jr., Donald Driver, Wes Welker and Laveranues Coles. Also, I have the Giants DST and the Panthers DST. I know Carolina is at Oakland, which is great, but the Giants DST has been great and would deserve to start if it didn't play at Philadelphia. Hope you can help. -- Chris Murphy, Canada

SW: I hope I can too. I have firm resolutions for both of your quandaries, so that's a start, if nothing else. Let me address your decision at defense first with a rule that applies to more than your specific situation. Unless I can't afford to waste a roster spot on a second defense, I will always, always start the weaker one with the better matchup over the stronger one with the worse matchup. A bad offense stinks no matter who it plays. A team that gives up sacks will give up sacks to anyone. Look at how good the Raiders made the Falcons defense look this past week. Going forward, any defense that plays the Raiders, Rams or Bengals is Fantasy gold, and the Lions and Seahawks will probably yield solid Fantasy numbers more often than not. I might hesitate to start a lousy defense -- say, the Chiefs' or the Lions' -- against the Raiders, but I wouldn't think twice about starting a decent option like Carolina's. As for your receivers, Coles has too much upside on a week-to-week basis to bench even though he hasn't done anything notable in recent weeks. Keep Welker active because of his consistency. For your third receiver, I give Jones the nod over Driver because he has emerged as his team's No. 1 wide receiver while Driver plays second fiddle to Greg Jennings. Plus, Jones has at least seven catches in three straight games, so being the top option in Jacksonville means something as opposed to being the top option in, say, Oakland.

Boy, did I just beat down the Raiders or what?

I need some advice on which running back to start in Week 10. My matchups couldn't be worse. I have to start two of these four: Joseph Addai at Pittsburgh, Ryan Grant at Minnesota, Steve Slaton at Baltimore and LenDale White at Chicago. I'm leaning toward Slaton and Grant. I'm considering Slaton because he gets his share of receptions as well as carries, and I'm considering Grant because he appears to be the workhorse and actually looked pretty good against a stout Tennessee defense (20 rushes, 86 yards -- 4.3 yards per carry). Do you agree? I welcome any advice. -- Jim Maybury, Dracut, Mass.

SW: I certainly agree with Slaton, who has become a must-start and just topped 100 total yards against another tough run defense in Minnesota. I'd eliminate White just because I don't trust him to get enough touches as the lesser half of a platoon with Chris Johnson. So your decision really comes down to Grant and Addai. Addai still seems like a tough sit to me just because of his upside, but his 32 yards on 17 carries against the Patriots coming back from a hamstring injury in Week 9 didn't inspire much confidence. I think I'd lean toward Grant in this case for the exact same reasons you gave. He seems like a safe bet for 70-80 yards regardless of his opponent, which is enough assurance for me to start him and hope for a touchdown.

My wide receivers are Calvin Johnson, Hines Ward, Chris Chambers, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, so I could use some help for the stretch run. I have Frank Gore, Tim Hightower, Earnest Graham, Jamal Lewis and LenDale White. I have been offered a trade of White for Roy Williams. Should I make this trade, or am I giving up too much? I don't see myself using White anymore, so why not trade him for a potentially better wide receiver when Romo comes back? -- Neil Johnson, Milwaukee

SW: Why not do it? Because I think you can get someone better for White than Williams. Listen, I've made my share of seemingly "bad" trades just because I thought they had more potential to help me than hurt me, but you still want to maximize value whenever possible. And since you'll have to wait to get anything from Williams anyway, I think you should spend some time pursuing a better target. Keep in mind whether he deserves it or not -- and I say not -- White ranks as the 15th running back, meaning even though he gets the second-most carries in his own backfield, he's a No. 2 Fantasy option. Williams, on the other hand, with his struggles in Detroit and trade to Dallas, has become nothing more than an intriguing prospect worth stashing if you have available roster space. Let's put it this way: The person who owns Williams in your league has probably considered waiving him at some point. I'd venture to say you haven't at all considered waiving White. Why would you trade a No. 2 Fantasy running back for waiver fodder? I'd try for maybe a Lee Evans, Bernard Berrian or Hines Ward before settling for Williams.

I play in a points-per-reception league and recently offered a trade where I would give up Chris Johnson, Thomas Jones and Jerricho Cotchery for Clinton Portis, Kevin Curtis and Sammy Morris. I have LaDainian Tomlinson as my other back and Marques Colston, Eddie Royal and Donnie Avery as my other receivers. We can start two running backs and two wide receivers. I feel like I should try to use my depth at receiver and running back to upgrade for the final push. Am I giving up too much? -- Jeremy Morgan, Brandon, S.D.

SW: I'd say so, Brandon ... I mean, Morgan ... I mean, Jeremy. Geez, having a first name for a last name didn't seal the deal with you, did it? Good thing you don't live in Republic of Chad.

I normally support the consolidation of excess, but in this case, I don't know that you have enough excess to justify trading Johnson and Jones and Cotchery for what amounts to pretty much Portis alone. Johnson really doesn't trail Portis by much, especially when you factor in receptions and consider that Portis has yet to have his bye week. Jones looks like clearly the better choice over Morris, who even when healthy, likely won't have as much Fantasy appeal as teammate Kevin Faulk in a points-per-reception league. Since receptions count, you don't want to give up a must-start wide receiver like Cotchery without getting one in return. Really, the loss of Cotchery turns me against this deal more than anything else -- and again, I might feel differently if you didn't play in a points-per-reception league. If you could remove him from the equation and package Johnson and Jones for Portis alone, I'd have an easier time giving this deal my stamp of approval.

I currently have Jason Campbell (starting), Matt Hasselbeck (on IR), Seneca Wallace, Todd Collins and Daunte Culpepper. Rex Grossman, Sage Rosenfels and Tyler Thigpen are available on the wire, but I'm thinking of trading a running back for a quarterback. Brandon Jacobs and Clinton Portis are my starters, with Julius Jones, Tim Hightower and Selvin Young as backups. I'm considering trading Hightower now. Would he be the one you would trade, and what type of quarterback would you expect in return? -- Steve Hart, Tampa, Fla.

SW: Hightower seems like a good choice to trade now after he took over the starting job and immediately posted a 100-yard game. You obviously don't want to mess with Portis or Jacobs, and Jones and Young have lost most of, if not all of, their value. I can't help but wonder why you'd waste roster spots on Wallace and Collins, much less Culpepper, but I suppose that decision doesn't matter here. Before you make a trade, I'd try my hand with Rosenfels, who looks like he might perform like a No. 1 Fantasy option while he fills in for Matt Schaub. If you insist on making a trade, though, I'd look at teams that have two Fantasy-viable quarterbacks and a need at running back before I targeted any specific quarterback. You could maybe pry away Tony Romo. Shoot, if you land Rosenfels, I'd look to acquire Schaub. For Hightower, you could probably get him and a decent wide receiver in return.

I've been offered Plaxico Burress and Terrell Owens for Chris Johnson, Santana Moss and Chad Pennington. My other running backs are LaDainian Tomlinson, Marshawn Lynch and Jamal Lewis. I'm thinking I should be fine there, but I was just wondering how much risk Burress presents right now (Owens, too, for that matter). Should I accept, or am I giving up too much? -- Benjie Haynie, Charlotte, Mich.

SW: Moss might run hot and cold at the hand of quarterback Jason Campbell, but he looks more reliable this year than Owens and Burress, who, respectively, have streaks of four and three games with less than 40 yards receiving. And none of the three are even the best player in this deal. That honor goes to Johnson, now a No. 1 Fantasy running back. I understand you have a surplus at running back, but don't make a trade just to make one. You're giving up not just the best, but the two best players involved in this deal.

Do you have a question? Send your thoughts to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and we'll address as many as we can. Put Attn: Dear Mr. Fantasy in the subject field. Include your name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
Mike Wallace
Steelers want to lock up Wallace
Mike Wallace, WR, PIT
12:17 PM
News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday the team wants to keep WR Mike Wallace "here for the long run." Wallace, their leading receiver last season, will become a restricted free agent March 13.
Analysis: Wallace played well in 2011 with 72 catches for 1,193 yards and eight touchdowns on 114 targets. He will remain in Pittsburgh in 2012, and hopefully he can sign a long-term deal. We consider Wallace a Top 10 Fantasy WR on Draft Day, and he should be selected in all leagues in Round 3.

Hines Ward
GM says no decision on Ward yet
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
12:13 PM
News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on whether WR Hines Ward will be back with the Steelers in 2012. "To this current point, no final decisions have been made," Colbert said. "We've had several discussions internally. We're right in the midst of our free agent evaluations of other teams' free agents. We'll meet on those [on the Steelers roster] starting Thursday and carry through Monday." A recent report on NFL Network said that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Brandon Lloyd
Pats could go after Lloyd
Brandon Lloyd, WR, STL
12:08 PM
News: The Boston Herald reports that the Patriots will be in the market for a WR this year, and one obvious possibility is Brandon Lloyd, who is an impending free agent, because of his ties to offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. The fact that Lloyd said “I’m tied to McDaniels” makes him a likely free agent target. Lloyd had 51 catches for 683 yards and five TDs last year in 11 games in St. Louis when McDaniels was the offensive coordinator makes him look pretty good after he amassed 77 catches for 1,448 yards and 11 scores with Denver when McDaniels was the coach.
Analysis: One holdup for Lloyd and the Patriots could be Lloyd's agent, Tom Condon, who has a rocky relationship with the Patriots. We'll see what plays out this offseason, but if Lloyd signs in New England he would be considered a low-end No. 2 Fantasy WR. He could still return to the Rams, where he would be a strong No. 3 option. Or he could shop himself around the league. Stay tuned, but either way Lloyd is worth a mid-round pick in all leagues.

Bills
Fitzpatrick finished season hurt
Bills, TQB BUF,
11:53 AM
News: The Sports Xchange reports that Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick's second-half swoon in 2011 was mystifying to fans and media who concluded the front office badly miscalculated in handing the career journeyman a 10-year, $60 million contract extension. But now it appears Fitzpatrick played the final nine games last season with cracked ribs. "A lot of people don't know, but Fitz, during the Washington game, actually cracked a couple of ribs," WR David Nelson said. "So after that he was playing hurt." It showed. In Fitzpatrick's first seven games of the year, he threw for 1,739 yards, 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. After the injury, he had 2,093 yards, 10 touchdowns and 16 picks. He finished the year with a league-high 23 interceptions. "It's hard to find the silver lining but as we evaluate the season and what went right and what went wrong I'm sure we'll find a lot of positives and a lot of things that we can carry into next year hopefully and continue to get better at it," Fitzpatrick said.
Analysis: Fitzpatrick obviously has 4,000-yard, 25-touchdown potential, but issues involving the personnel around him along with his own issues (accuracy, for one) make him risky for weekly use in Fantasy. Figure that he's worth a late-round pick as a good No. 2 Fantasy QB with potential to be a low-end starter. It should only help him if the Bills not only re-sign Steve Johnson this offseason, but also add talent at wide receiver.

Josh Scobee
Jags want Scobee back
Josh Scobee, K, JAC
11:47 AM
News: The Sports Xchange reports that Jacksonville has most of its top offensive players locked into contracts for the coming season with one notable exception - kicker Josh Scobee, who is an eight-year veteran. Scobee has been one of the league's most accurate kickers in his eight seasons with the Jaguars, converting better than 75 percent of his field-goal attempts in all but one season. Scobee led the team in scoring last year with 92 points, including 23 of 25 (92 percent) field-goal attempts, the second time in his career he's finished over 90 percent with his kicks. It isn't likely the Jaguars would use the franchise tag on him and probably won't have to. They'll make every attempt to sign him. For a team that was among the league's lowest scoring clubs, the Jaguars can ill afford to lose a player with Scobee's talents.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Scobee. He is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues, but he could be used as a bye-week replacement as long as he remains with the Jaguars.

Rams
Coaches excited about Bradford
Rams, TQB STL,
11:44 AM
News: The Sports Xchange reports that new Rams coach Jeff Fisher and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer are excited to be working with QB Sam Bradford. Fisher has said on several occasions that Bradford's presence was a major factor that made the Rams' job attractive. "Sam was a big part of the decision," Fisher said. "We think he has a chance to be great. A lot of people around the league believe that. We are going to everything possible to make that happen." As Schottenheimer began watching tape of Bradford, he liked what he saw. "Obviously, he's extremely gifted, extremely talented," Schottenheimer said. "As I'm watching the film, getting the sense of how accurate he is with the football and how well he actually moves around and has made plays. That was one of the things that jumped off the film at me. It will be a fun process going through and looking at all the games and just getting a sense of where he's at. Obviously, I've been around a lot of young quarterbacks, but I think this guy's got a chance to be real special."
Analysis: We have high expectations for Bradford heading into 2012, but he still remains just a No. 2 Fantasy QB in the majority of leagues. The Rams need to give Bradford some weapons, but he is someone to draft with a late-round pick with the hope he can develop into a potential starting option in all formats.

Shaun Hill
Hill wants return to Lions
Shaun Hill, QB, DET
11:19 AM
News: The Detroit Free-Press reports that Lions backup QB Shaun Hill would like to return to Detroit in 2012. The Lions have told Hill, his representatives and others that they want him back as the primary backup to Matthew Stafford. Hill also wants to return to Detroit -- and might even take a slight discount to do so. The 32-year-old appeared in two games last year and attempted just three passes, but he made 10 starts in 2010, when Stafford missed 13 games with two separated throwing shoulders.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Hill, but unless he signs with a team and earns a starting job he would not be worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Jerricho Cotchery
Cotchery wants return to Steelers
Jerricho Cotchery, WR, PIT
11:15 AM
News: The Newark Star-Ledger reports that Steelers WR Jerricho Cotchery, who is an impending free agent, would like to return to Pittsburgh in 2012. “In exit meetings (with the Steelers), it was pretty much stated that they were very pleased with me, who I was on the field and off the field,” Cotchery said. “I’m everything that they thought I would be, so from their standpoint, they definitely would want me back. And I expressed the same desire, so we’ll see what happens.”
Analysis: Cotchery was coming off offseason back surgery last season and then missed the first three games with a hamstring injury. He finished with 16 catches for 237 yards, and he caught a 31-yard touchdown pass to force overtime against the Broncos in the wild-card playoff game. Keep an eye on what happens with Cotchery, but he has minimal Fantasy value heading into the year. He should not be drafted in most formats.

Cardinals
Kolb plans to be Cardinals starter
Cardinals, TQB ARI,
11:06 AM
News: The Arizona Republic reports that Cardinals QB Kevin Kolb is not worried about losing his job heading into 2012 with the speculation the team could sign Peyton Manning if he becomes a free agent. "I know how the NFL works," Kolb said, "anything is possible. I just try to keep my mind clear and do what I can on my end. I plan on having a great year and being a Cardinal for a long time." Kolb is due a $7 million bonus if he's on the roster March 17, and said "every indication on my end shows me that I'll be there." Kolb's first season with the Cardinals was hampered by a foot injury and concussion. He missed four games because of the foot and the last three games of the season with the concussion. "I feel good," Kolb said. "I'd say it took three to four weeks after the season was over to not have any symptoms. Once my mind cleared, I got back to working out."
Analysis: Kolb struggled in his first year with the Cardinals in 2011, and he was outplayed by John Skelton for most of the year. Kolb passed for 1,955 passing yards, nine touchdowns and eight interceptions, but he will likely be the starter in 2012 if the team doesn't bring in Manning. Keep an eye on what happens, but Kolb is only worth drafting as a No. 2 Fantasy QB in deeper leagues if he remains the starter with the Cardinals.

Matt Prater
Broncos could franchise Prater
Matt Prater, K, DEN
10:54 AM
News: The Denver Post reports that the Broncos could use the franchise tag on impending free agent kicker Matt Prater. The projected salary for a franchised kicker this year is less than $2.6 million — down 19 percent from $3.176 million in 2011. Prater said near season's end that after five seasons of kicking on year-to-year deals, he was hoping free agency would bring him the security of a long-term contract. Prater drew a $1.835 million salary as a restricted free agent in 2011, when he had four walkoff field goals for wins, including successful overtime kicks of 52 yards at Miami and 51 yards against the Bears.
Analysis: Prater had a solid year in 2011. He was 19 of 25 on field goals and made all 30 extra points. Keep an eye on what happens with him this offseason, but he could be worth drafting with a late-round pick in all leagues if he remains with the Broncos.

 
 
 
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