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2011 Draft Prep Guide
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Jamey Eisenberg

Four Downs: More frustration with McGahee

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Willis McGahee continues to be one of the most frustrating yet rewarding Fantasy running backs this season. On Sunday, he came out with a positive result, which was unexpected.

McGahee had 25 carries for 112 yards and two touchdowns against Houston. This came a week after he was active against Cleveland but didn't play with an ankle injury.

It was reported that McGahee was going to play against the Texans but share carries with Ray Rice and LeRon McClain. The thought was McGahee wouldn't put up dominating stats, with Rice coming off a career performance against the Browns and McClain stealing goal-line carries.

Willis McGahee ran all over the Texans in a Week 10 blowout. (US Presswire)  
Willis McGahee ran all over the Texans in a Week 10 blowout. (US Presswire)  
But McClain only finished with four carries for 19 yards Sunday, and Rice had seven carries for 17 yards with two catches for 2 yards. And there was McGahee, leading the Ravens in a victory march.

Fantasy owners who had McGahee on the bench had to be livid, and he was only started in 27 percent of leagues on CBSSports.com. Unfortunately, keeping McGahee reserved was the right move.

You didn't want to have a situation like last week where he was dressed but sat out. That also happened in Week 1 against Cincinnati, so there was a track record with McGahee about watching from the sidelines. And with the way Rice was playing, it seemed like McGahee could be getting phased out of the offense with his inconsistent play and inability to stay healthy. He's already dealt with knee, eye and rib injuries prior to the ankle problem.

But McGahee has proven when he plays he can produce, especially when the matchup is right. He had 64 yards and a touchdown in Week 3 against Cleveland, 105 yards and a touchdown in Week 7 at Miami, 58 yards and a touchdown in Week 8 against Oakland and then this game against the Texans.

You just have to play the matchups with McGahee and hope he stays healthy. He has three favorable games left on the schedule with Cincinnati in Week 13, Dallas in Week 16 and Jacksonville in Week 17.

The best news from Sunday's game besides his performance was the coaching staff remained committed to McGahee. They let him lead the way with the majority of touches.

McGahee has frustrated Fantasy owners most of the season, including Sunday if you didn't start him against the Texans. But this game should give you hope for the future that he could play well again down the road.

First down

It's amazing to look at the quarterback leaders each week and see the different names at the top of the list. This week wasn't any different.

Five of the top Fantasy outings in Week 10 include Tyler Thigpen, Kerry Collins, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco. Brady Quinn is also on this list from his debut Thursday against Denver.

Ryan has become a regular of this group every week and has emerged as a No. 1 Fantasy starter. He passed for 248 yards and two touchdowns against New Orleans and should be started every week, no matter the matchup at this point. Ryan should have another great game in Week 11 against Denver.

Flacco is trying to push Ryan for the top rookie award this year, and he played well against Houston with 185 passing yards and two touchdowns. Flacco now has six touchdowns and no interceptions in his past four games and could be a low-end No. 1 Fantasy option every week, including a tough matchup like Week 11 at the Giants.

Thigpen is the most intriguing quarterback. He passed for 266 yards and three touchdowns at San Diego and now has five touchdowns and no interceptions in his past three games.

Thigpen should be added in all leagues at this point and is worth starting since he has solid weapons in Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez. It's clear Thigpen is the quarterback of the future in Kansas City, and he has great matchups ahead in New Orleans, Buffalo, Oakland, Denver, San Diego and Miami.

Quinn looked great for the Browns against the Broncos with 239 yards and two touchdowns. It could have been the matchup since Denver is terrible on defense, but Quinn should also be added in all leagues and has a good matchup in Week 11 at Buffalo.

Only Collins isn't worth owning at this time. Collins showed he could lead the Titans to a win with his first game over 200 passing yards this season. He had 289 yards and two touchdowns at Chicago when the Titans struggled to run the ball. But Collins isn't going to be asked to throw 41 passes on a regular basis, and Chris Johnson (14 carries for 8 yards) and LenDale White (10 carries for 14 yards and a touchdown) won't be locked down like this most weeks. Don't expect Collins to pass like this on a regular basis.

Second down

Finally, Adrian Peterson delivered that moment you were waiting for. He finally had that dominant game.

Peterson ran for 192 yards and a touchdown against Green Bay and also added three catches for 33 yards. It was his best game of the season, and Peterson is rolling now.

Peterson has 563 rushing yards and four touchdowns in his past four games. He is living up to the hype as a Top 3 Fantasy draft choice.

Now if only LaDainian Tomlinson can do the same thing. Tomlinson should have dominated Kansas City on Sunday but instead finished with 22 carries for 78 yards and four catches for 39 yards.

The total stats weren't horrible, but Tomlinson should have played much better coming off a bye against the worst rushing defense in the NFL. He could struggle next week at Pittsburgh before picking it back up in Week 12 against Indianapolis.

As we've told you all season, you're just going to have to ride it out with Tomlinson and wait for him to start playing well. It should happen soon.

Third down

While Peterson played well, he didn't have the best Fantasy day Sunday. That belonged to Thomas Jones, who had 26 carries for 149 yards and three touchdowns against St. Louis.

Jones now has eight touchdowns in his past five games and has emerged as a No. 1 Fantasy running back. That's a change from last year when he was a disappointment with only two touchdowns for the season.

Maurice Jones-Drew tried to keep up with Jones and Peterson by gaining 91 total yards and three touchdowns at Detroit. Jones-Drew now has six touchdowns in his past four games and is starting to establish himself as a great Fantasy running back.

It was fun to watch Peterson, Jones and Jones-Drew go back and forth on the stat sheet to see who would finish with the better day. The winner, obviously, were the Fantasy owners with all three players.

Fourth down

Welcome back, Marques Colston. The Saints wide receiver, who missed five games with a thumb injury, finally looked like an elite Fantasy option with seven catches for 140 yards against Atlanta.

It looks like you can start Colston in all leagues once again, and he's going to take off over the final seven games of the season. He has great matchups remaining against Kansas City, Atlanta, Chicago and Detroit.

Wes Welker also had a big game with 10 catches for 107 yards against Buffalo. Welker is still sitting on one touchdown this season, but this is why you start Welker every week because of games like this.

Some other observations: Bo Scaife and Dustin Keller stepped up and should be considered starting Fantasy tight ends at this point. Scaife had 10 catches for 78 yards and a touchdown at Chicago, and Keller had six catches for 107 yards and a touchdown against the Rams. ... Jake Delhomme is proving you should only start him at home. He has eight touchdowns and two interceptions at home and two touchdowns and seven interceptions on the road after throwing for 72 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions at Oakland. Good thing Delhomme is home against Detroit in Week 11. ... Todd Heap finally showed up with five catches for 58 yards and two touchdowns against Houston. Where has that been? ... BenJarvus Green-Ellis ran for 105 yards and a touchdown against Buffalo. He now has a touchdown in four-straight games and should be started as a low-end No. 2 Fantasy running back or flex option each week as long as Sammy Morris (knee) and LaMont Jordan (calf) remain out.

What are your thoughts from this week? See anything that jumped off the screen? Let us know -- e-mail us at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Four Downs in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
Rashard Mendenhall
PUP list in Mendenhall's future
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
2/13/2012
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Mendenhall tore his right ACL in Week 17 of last season; recovery time for such injuries is anywhere from nine months to a year.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He'll likely get the first crack at starting in place of Mendenhall. There's still a lot of time between now and the regular season, but for now it's probably safe to expect Mendenhall to not be at even close to 100 percent to start the year, which will absolutely impact his Fantasy value. By August, you might be drafting Mendenhall as a middle- to late-round sleeper you'll have to sit on for a while. We'll keep you posted on Mendenhall as best as we can.

Randy Moss
Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
2/13/2012
News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to." NFL Network reports that teams have already been calling his agent following the news.
Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Calvin Johnson
Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
2/13/2012
News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.
Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

DeSean Jackson
Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
2/13/2012
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.
Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Isaac Redman
Redman in line to start for Steelers?
Isaac Redman, RB, PIT
2/13/2012
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. That would open the door for Isaac Redman to be the starting rusher entering training camp.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He's also stepped up while working with Mendenhall and without him, though his one other start in 2011 was a flop (61 total yards, no touchdowns vs. Tennessee). By August we might recommend drafting Redman with a pick in Round 6 or 7 as a good early-season starting option with potential to be a quality Fantasy choice for the entire season. We'll see how the Steelers' run game shakes out.

Steve Slaton
Slaton, Dolphins likely parting ways
Steve Slaton, RB, MIA
2/13/2012
News: The Palm Beach Post reports that RB Steve Slaton is not expected to return to the Dolphins in 2012. Slaton played in three games this season with zero starts after being picked up on waivers before Week 4. He had 17 carries for 64 yards (3.8 average) with one touchdown and a long of 28 and also returned three kickoffs for 85 yards. Slaton was signed as insurance early in the season when both Reggie Bush (groin) and Daniel Thomas (hamstring) battled injuries.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Slaton plays in 2012, but he likely has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in all leagues on Draft Day.

Doug Baldwin
Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
2/13/2012
News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”
Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Hines Ward
Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
2/13/2012
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on the future of Hines Ward. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported previously that if the Steelers did decide to release Ward, he was unaware of it. NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report. Ward's 2012 salary is high and he's expected to at least take a significant pay cut, if not get released altogether. Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Josh Morgan
Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
2/13/2012
News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

Jeremy Shockey
Panthers could bring back Shockey
Jeremy Shockey, TE, CAR
2/13/2012
News: The Charlotte Observer considers re-signing free agent TE Jeremy Shockey a "high priority" this offseason. Shockey was the No. 2 TE for the Panthers behind Greg Olsen, and he had a productive season when he caught 37 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns and missed only one game to injury.
Analysis: Though not the same receiver he was a decade ago, Shockey still is a dependable target, particularly in the red zone. If his asking price is too high, Panthers could turn to Gary Barnidge, who was having a great 2011 camp before breaking his ankle. Keep an eye on what happens with Shockey, and if he returns to the Panthers as expected he would be a No. 2 Fantasy TE on Draft Day worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

 
 
 
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