Now I know how all of LaDainian Tomlinson's owners have felt all year.
That's because I traded for him late last week.
Whaaaaaaaat?!?!
Regular readers might have done a spit-take after reading that last sentence (not the Whaaaaaaaat?!?! sentence, the one before it). That's because earlier this year I suggested that LaDainian Tomlinson was slow and was good trade bait if your team had a couple of early holes caused by injured stud players or underperforming busts. Unparalled debate ensued among the readers, many of whom called me names that rhyme with cupid, numb and jazz pole.
Now, I am the one who's cupid and numb. Before you judge me, here's my story:
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The Chiefs unexpectedly kept L.T. under wraps in Week 10.
(US Presswire)
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One of the leagues I play in is a 14-team, uber-deep format that includes people who either work for or have worked at CBSSports.com, ESPN.com, Rotoworld.com, VegasInsider.com and RotoExperts.com. This is no cupcake league. Receptions count, but only after a player gets three (unless he's a tight end) and there are generous bonuses and a fairly heavy emphasis on DSTs. And in this 14-team league, everyone can start two running backs and four wide receivers/tight ends, but the preferred way to play is with three running backs and three wide receivers/tight ends.
I drafted very well, nabbing Clinton Portis in Round 1, Maurice Jones-Drew in Round 2, Chris Johnson in Round 5 and Steve Slaton in Round 7. While that helped propel my team to a nice start, I realized that having four great running backs but being forced to sit one each week would ultimately be a problem. That problem was compounded when I had Brian Westbrook fall into my lap in exchange for Slaton when a desperate owner couldn't wait for Westbrook to get healthy and I could.
Still stuck with the four-running-backs-for-three-spots problem, an owner dangled Tomlinson but demanded Johnson and Jones-Drew in trade. My gut instinct: Yeah, right. But I did some research and found Johnson's schedule to be tougher than Tomlinson's. I also realized that Johnson, a rookie, would likely hit a wall in the next couple of weeks and stop producing at a high level. As for Jones-Drew, I knew he was a valuable commodity, but how often would I be starting him?
I decided to pursue the deal, getting DeSean Jackson and Shaun Alexander in addition to L.T. (whodathunk three years ago that Alexander would be a throw-in in a Fantasy trade?) Besides, how bad could it be to regularly start Portis, Westbrook and Tomlinson on the same team?
Well, so far, I'm 0-1 after the trade. Portis was off, Tomlinson netted me a cool dozen points based on my league's scoring system and Westbrook stumbled against a good Giants defense. Meanwhile, while I correctly figured that Johnson would slow down, I incorrectly figured that Maurice Jones-Drew wasn't capable of a three-score game.
I'm chalking up Tomlinson's low production in Week 10 to a Chiefs defense focused on stopping him and winning in man coverage against the Chargers' receivers (Philip Rivers was only sacked twice). Tomlinson did not look particularly slow when he had room to run, which wasn't often because his offensive line continued to block effectively in spurts. That might be the new reason to not like Tomlinson.
Now then, since I'm assuming that most of you aren't lucky enough to land Tomlinson as a No. 3 Fantasy running back, you might have to decide on whether or not he's worth adding to your Fantasy roster via trade. Or maybe there's someone else who you are thinking about acquiring. Don't worry, I'm here for you -- my annual trade deadline analysis is a part of this week's edition of Fantasy & Reality.
Fantasy & Reality
Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) before and during the week's action.
Fantasy: The Ravens' run game is easy to figure out. Last week, Willis McGahee, Ray Rice and LeRon McClain were all active, but McGahee watched as Rice and McClain shouldered the load. In Week 10, they were all active again, and this time McGahee did most of the heavy lifting (over 100 yards and two touchdowns) while Rice and McClain were role players. What can we learn from their game at Houston? It's clear that McGahee is the guy they want running the ball so long as he is healthy. With that being the case, everything else in Baltimore falls into place.
Reality: Marshawn Lynch isn't playing to expectations. I'll admit that Lynch wasn't expected to do much against the Patriots' front seven, but his lack of yardage is catching up with Fantasy owners. He has one 100-total-yard game this year and has averaged over 4.0 yards per carry in two games this season. If he's not scoring, he's hurting your team. How soon until we start calling him 'Least Mode?' Playing at home vs. the Browns in Week 11 should be his chance to rebound. Should be.
Fantasy: Jay Cutler is a Tier 2 quarterback. He sure didn't look like a second-rate Fantasy passer against the Browns (I ranked him as such last week), but then again, who hasn't against the Browns (I mean besides Eli Manning)? While I'm all for his ability, his deep receiving corps and all else that is jolly in Denver, it should not be overlooked that they're going to be a one-dimensional team with no running game to speak of, and defenses can prepare better for those kinds of offenses. Cutler will have some rough weeks ahead.
Reality: Tyler Thigpen is a No. 1 Fantasy QB, and I can't believe I'm saying this. I can recall a time last year when I was laughing at Thigpen's play. I thought he was awful. Shows you what I know -- the Chiefs' quarterback has caught the NFL offguard without the assistance of an effective running game or a perfect offensive line. In his last three games he has thrown six touchdowns, caught another, hasn't turned the ball over once, been sacked just five times and is averaging 6.9 yards per attempt. Only Fantasy owners of Drew Brees and Kurt Warner would turn their up noses at Thigpen at this point. Not only do the Chiefs have their man for the future -- a huge boon for their franchise, but he's also someone who could evolve into a low-end No. 1 Fantasy quarterback in drafts next year. As for this year, he's a keeper, especially playing at home next week against the defensively-challenged Saints.
Fantasy: The Titans are a rushing-only team. I can clearly recall when I sat down to preview the Titans-Bears game and saying to myself, 'The Titans could throw quite a bit and use that to set up the run,' but I chickened out. How in the world could I go against Chris Johnson, the leading rusher in the AFC, and if I did, what argument could I make that I would believe myself? But what's scary for teams playing the Titans in the coming weeks -- they proved that they can move the ball through the air if necessary.
Reality: If you're not believing in Matt Ryan by now, you're not watching football. Fantasy has come down to the likes of Ryan, Thigpen and Joe Flacco posting big numbers. So much for drafting a stud quarterback early, huh? Anyway, Ryan is the leader of the pack with at least 220 yards in each of his last four games and at least two touchdown passes in four of five. Best of all: Three interceptions since Week 3.
Strategy Session: Annual Trade Deadline Schedule Preview!
In the past, I've been accused of letting potential trade deals out of the bag because I'll say 'go get these guys' or 'trade those guys' (P.S. How have those Texans been doing lately?). Far be it from me to rain on an individual Fantasy owner's parade -- at least with a handful of players whose stock is going up or down.
Therefore, I have devised this extensive look at the upcoming games for all 32 NFL teams. Some teams have it really easy down the stretch while others have it tough. Fantasy owners are advised to read through this chart and decide for themselves who is worth trading for and if they are available in their leagues. Obviously, aim for players with easy schedules on Fantasy teams who are close to falling out of contention for the playoffs -- no one in the running for a postseason berth will make a deal for a quality player unless it's a no-brainer.
Additionally, I listed the schedule for the rest of the season but only evaluated Weeks 11 through 16. That's because Week 17 is a throw-away week for so many teams, whether they're locked into playoff position and benching their best players or trotting out unproven talent to see what they have for next year.
With that in mind, here comes the monster, with the teams sorted by division.
| Cowboys | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | @WAS | SF | SEA | @PIT | NYG | BAL | @PHI |
| Nothing special even with four home games left. While the Cowboys' next three games look like gems for their offense, the next three -- in Fantasy playoff crunch time -- are nightmarish, especially for Marion Barber. |
| Giants | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | BAL | @ARI | @WAS | PHI | @DAL | CAR | @MIN |
| A challenging schedule, especially with three straight divisional games. If injuries don't deplete the Giants' opponents, scoring could be hard to come by in nearly all of these games. |
| Eagles | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | @CIN | @BAL | ARI | @NYG | CLE | @WAS | DAL |
| Mostly a good schedule for the Eagles, especially Brian Westbrook, who will get the Bengals, Cardinals at home on a cross-country trip and the Browns. It's Philly's passing game that could struggle in the NFC matchups. |
| Redskins | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | DAL | @SEA | NYG | @BAL | @CIN | PHI | @SF |
| The schedule isn't awful for Clinton Portis, but it isn't great, either. The Redskins' passing game should do well for much of these games. |
| Bears | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | @GB | @STL | @MIN | JAC | NO | GB | @HOU |
| A very favorable schedule for Matt Forte, with only the Vikings game a concern. If Kyle Orton returns in Week 14, he'll give Fantasy owners nice numbers in three-straight home games against average-to-good pass defenses. |
| Lions | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | @CAR | TB | TEN | MIN | @IND | NO | @GB |
| It gets worse for the Lions. Kevin Smith is absolutely worthless until Week 15, and the Lions' passing game can't be viewed as favorable in any game until Week 16. But I didn't have to tell you to stay away from most Lions, did I? |
| Packers | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | CHI | @NO | CAR | HOU | @JAC | @CHI | DET |
| Hard to not like the schedule as far as Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings and Donald Driver are concerned. It's Ryan Grant who could have some on-and-off weeks, but that's something we're used to already. |
| Vikings | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | @TB | @JAC | CHI | @DET | @ARI | ATL | NYG |
| One of the main reasons why I liked Bernard Berrian back in the summer was this late-season sked with no games in cold weather. That means Gus Frerotte should be decent, and Adrian Peterson only has one "tough" game -- at Tampa Bay. |
| Falcons | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | DEN | CAR | @SD | @NO | TB | @MIN | STL |
| You have to love this schedule -- until you get to Weeks 15 and 16, especially for matchup maven Michael Turner. If you're going to ride him into the Fantasy postseason, be prepared to bail on him when two great run defenses come calling. |
| Panthers | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | DET | @ATL | @GB | TB | DEN | @NYG | @NO |
| Looking good! Week 13 could be tough for the passing game, Week 14 could be tough for the running game, and Week 16 could be tough all over, but the Panthers should roll, especially through the air. |
| Saints | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | @KC | GB | @TB | ATL | @CHI | @DET | CAR |
| I like the Saints passing game for the rest of the year more than the running game, which is good because the Saints pass a ton. Stealing Marques Colston via trade for the playoff run could pay off. |
| Buccaneers | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | MIN | @DET | NO | @CAR | @ATL | SD | OAK |
| Even with the Lions and Chargers at home ahead for the Bucs, it's not an overwhelmingly favorable schedule. No one in Tampa Bay should be considered a locked-in Fantasy starter, including Earnest Graham and Antonio Bryant. |
| Cardinals | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | @SEA | NYG | @PHI | STL | MIN | @NE | SEA |
| Only the Giants and Eagles, especially the Eagles, are in a position to really halt the Cardinals' passing attack. Weeks 15 and 16 look particularly hairy for Tim Hightower. |
| 49ers | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | STL | @DAL | @BUF | NYJ | @MIA | @STL | WAS |
| Aside from two dates with the Rams, this is an awful schedule for the Niners. I cannot see Frank Gore posting excellent numbers from Week 12 through Week 15 -- he's going to hurt Fantasy owners. |
| Rams | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | @SF | CHI | MIA | @ARI | SEA | SF | @ATL |
| The Rams could help nail down some Fantasy championships in Weeks 15 and 16, but that's about it. |
| Seahawks | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | ARI | WAS | @DAL | NE | @STL | NYJ | @ARI |
| You might not believe this, but Matt Hasselbeck could be a Fantasy darling for the entire stretch from Week 11 through 16. Not a single opponent left has a quality secondary that should scare the Seahawks, assuming they stay healthy. |
| Bills | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | CLE | @KC | SF | MIA | @NYJ | @DEN | NE |
| Marshawn Lynch has been trouble for Fantasy owners for some of the season, but take away his Week 15 matchup and he should be a dandy. Lee Evans also should roll down the stretch -- every game looks good for him. |
| Dolphins | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | OAK | NE | @STL | @BUF | SF | @KC | @NYJ |
| Chad Pennington will help people win Fantasy leagues -- no team remaining should scare him. Ronnie Brown should also do well. Heck, the Dolphins might make the playoffs with this cupcake schedule. |
| Patriots | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | NYJ | @MIA | PIT | @SEA | @OAK | ARI | @BUF |
| Not a good slate until Week 14 -- be prepared to go without the Pats' running backs until then. The passing game has it a little easier, but back-to-back West Coast trips won't help. |
| Jets | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | @NE | @TEN | DEN | @SF | BUF | @SEA | MIA |
| Love Thomas Jones' schedule from Week 13 on, and Brett Favre could have some really nice games, excluding at Tennessee. |
| Ravens | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | @NYG | PHI | @CIN | WAS | PIT | @DAL | JAC |
| The Ravens have joined the NFC East! Aside from Week 13, this is a really lousy schedule for the Ravens' running backs. You might want to cash in on Ray Rice this week. |
| Bengals | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | PHI | @PIT | BAL | @IND | WAS | @CLE | KC |
| If you thought it was tough for the Bengals' receivers before, get a load of this schedule. They might be fine in Week 15 depending on the health of the Redskins' secondary, but this is not good for Ocho, Housh or any other Bengal. | |
| Browns | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | @BUF | HOU | IND | @TEN | @PHI | CIN | @PIT |
| Weeks 14 and 15 are rough, especially on the road, but the rest of the schedule isn't that bad, even for Brady Quinn. |
| Steelers | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | SD | CIN | @NE | DAL | @BAL | @TEN | CLE |
| Until Week 16, you absolutely have to love this for Ben Roethlisberger, Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes. Willie Parker should be OK leading up to Week 15, but after that, it's dicey. |
| Texans | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | @IND | @CLE | JAC | @GB | TEN | @OAK | CHI |
| The Texans' passing game could see some tough times outside of Weeks 12 and 16. Two home games -- one against the Titans -- won't help, and Steve Slaton has his share of good and bad matchups. |
| Colts | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | HOU | @SD | @CLE | CIN | DET | @JAC | TEN |
| Get ready for the Colts to get healthy. Not a single opponent left through Week 16 is in a position to slow down Peyton Manning. Joseph Addai should rebound, too. With the values of most Colts at an all-time low, this is the week to trade for them. |
| Jaguars | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | TEN | MIN | @HOU | @CHI | GB | IND | @BAL |
| Maurice Jones-Drew could be OK in Weeks 15 and 16, but the rest of the schedule isn't too great. David Garrard should remain a backup Fantasy quarterback and Matt Jones is expected to miss some of these games with a suspension. |
| Titans | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | @JAC | NYJ | @DET | CLE | @HOU | PIT | @IND |
| The only Titans Fantasy owners care about are running backs, and both of them should be fine. The games against the Jets and Steelers loom large, but at least they are at home. Hopefully Johnson has gas in the tank for them. |
| Broncos | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | @ATL | OAK | @NYJ | KC | @CAR | BUF | @SD |
| With the exception of the Panthers game on the road in Week 15, this schedule should play out great for Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal. The Broncos' lack of a run game only enhances their potential for big stats. |
| Chiefs | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | NO | BUF | @OAK | @DEN | SD | MIA | @CIN |
| The remaining schedule for Larry Johnson is solid, especially with four home games and two in Weeks 15 and 16. If he gets going, this offense could be really effective, making Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe safe Fantasy options. |
| Raiders | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | @MIA | @DEN | KC | @SD | NE | HOU | @TB |
| Really, is anyone banking on the Raiders to do anything? If so, you're probably not in the playoff hunt. Justin Fargas might be a spot starter in Weeks 12, 13 and 16. |
| Chargers | week 11 | week 12 | week 13 | week 14 | week 15 | week 16 | week 17 |
| Opp. | @PIT | IND | ATL | OAK | @KC | @TB | DEN |
| Pretty good schedule for the Bolts down the stretch, including three consecutive home games. It's the Week 11 game at Pittsburgh and Week 16 game at Tampa Bay that should make LT owners a bit queasy. |
Parting shots
• I meant to spend some time this week looking at how rookie running backs tend to perform down the stretch and examine the "Rookie Wall." While an extensive study will be done during the offseason, my guesstimate would be that rookies, especially running backs, lose some steam down the stretch as they're not used to playing 16 times an autumn. In college most teams play 12 games, and that's something players are used to for three to four years. Subsequently, there's a study that ought to be done about unproven running backs getting playing time in the second half of the season and making the most of it. Samkon Gado and Ryan Grant are two such examples.
Just something to consider and keep in mind if you own or want to trade for Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton, Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, Jonathan Stewart, Tim Hightower, Felix Jones, Peyton Hillis, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Dantrell Savage, Michael Bush, Clifton Smith, Kenneth Darby or anyone else who might fit either profile.
• Speaking of Green-Ellis, or as I call him, 'BGE' (c'mon, that's gotta stick), if he keeps up this pace of scoring in every game like he has through four straight and providing a rushing presence for the Patriots, you can bet your grey hoodie that the Patriots will start him in 2009 and send Laurence Maroney packing. New England is a smart team when it comes to personnel and how it relates to the salary cap. Green-Ellis' contract can't be anywhere close to Maroney's first-round moolah. Keeper league owners, get this guy.
• Will Blackmon's return for a touchdown against Minnesota was absolutely awesome. Technically, he beat 12 Vikings on that play as he ran past all 11 including one guy twice! It more than made up for his mental error earlier in the game when he brought the ball out of the end zone on a return and was chewed out by coach Mike McCarthy.
• It's hard to be convinced that Reggie Wayne is playing at 100 percent since his 65-yard touchdown came off of a tipped pass that Ike Taylor should have intercepted, but Wayne got it, spun away from a defender and waltzed into the end zone. He even had a similar catch like that later in the game at Pittsburgh on Sunday. Without those catches, Wayne has four grabs for 33 yards and Peyton Manning has two interceptions and two touchdowns. You could say that tipped passes even out in the end, and it's not necessarily Wayne's fault that the balls were tipped, but his stats were inflated because of these plays. Still, he's going to improve as the Colts' schedule lightens up (see above).
• Who wins on a neutral field: The University of Alabama or the Raiders?
• Anyone else rooting for the Lions to go 0-16? I know it's wrong, but it would deliver the kind of wake-up call that the Ford family absolutely needs to turn the franchise around. I like that the Detroit faithful aren't showing up for games -- it's another wake-up call for the organization. The only guys I feel bad for are Rod Marinelli, his coaches and his players. I don't feel for the Fords one bit, though I do believe that if they did go 0-16 that they'd change the culture of their franchise and bring in football people to run the ship the right way.
Just like the Dolphins and to an extent the Falcons did. And look at where it got them.
Do you have a question for Dave? Send your thoughts to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and we'll post the best responses. Be sure to put Attn: Fantasy & Reality in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.
