|
To prepare you as best we can for your week of Fantasy Football, we've devised this series of previews for each NFL game. We'll give you a taste of what to expect, then rank each significant Fantasy contributor on a scale from 0-5 stars (with five stars suggesting can't-miss; a player or unit without any stars suggests you probably shouldn't start him under any circumstances). The rankings take the matchup into account, but injuries and other significant factors also contribute. You should be able to compare the ratings for the players on your team and make an educated pick on who should start -- and sit -- in your lineup. Updated: Nov. 14, 2008 | | New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, 1:00 pm, Arrowhead Stadium | | The Chiefs' defense is battered, so there is absolutely no reason to believe that Drew Brees will have trouble here, even if the game is outdoors and on grass. Brees' two worst statistical games came outdoors this year (at Washington, at Carolina), but Kansas City might have as many as five new starters on defense, including two in the secondary and two on the defensive line, so Brees should flourish. That means Marques Colston should be solid, and Deuce McAllister could see enough work to land some decent stats, especially with Reggie Bush out. Kansas City's best defense is its offense, which has been on fire thanks to the play of Tyler Thigpen and Tony Gonzalez, and now they'll get back Larry Johnson to boost the running game. Make no mistake, though, this offense belongs to Thigpen, and Johnson's workload will likely reflect it. With the Saints likely running up the score, Thigpen has the matchup, receiving corps and ability to lead the team down the field and put up some stats. This could be a high-scoring game since there's little defense expected to be played. | | | Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, 1:00 pm, Lambeau Field | | The Bears will attack with a heavy dose of Matt Forte, gashing a Packers run defense that not only has been bad but just lost its best run-stopping linebacker in Nick Barnett for the rest of the season. That's good for Kyle Orton, who should return under center but not be needed to carry the offense. He'll also enjoy a limited Packers pass rush and won't have to throw much against a very good and dangerous secondary. Of course, that limits his numbers along with the numbers of his receivers. Meanwhile, Lovie Smith has had the Packers' number since his second year with the Bears, winning five of the last six and limiting the Packers quarterback (Brett Favre) to two touchdowns and 13 interceptions in that span. Running the ball won't be an ideal option since the Bears have been good against most rushers this year, including the Titans last week. That's going to mean throwing the ball, and even though the Bears have been great against Favre in the past, he has accumulated large passing yardage numbers. Rodgers could get close to 250 yards -- he needs to make up for some rough performances with Greg Jennings -- but converting drives for touchdowns without throwing interceptions could be a challenge. | | | Baltimore Ravens at N.Y. Giants
Sunday, 1:00 pm, Giants Stadium | | Both offenses will face a monumental challenge to score points, likely leading to a low-scoring defensive battle. The Ravens get their first taste of the NFC East as they have three more games to go against teams from the division after this one. Joe Flacco has looked great in the last four weeks, but he's notched six of his seven passing touchdowns and 805 of his 1,649 yards against the Dolphins, Raiders, Browns and Texans. In games against the Steelers and Titans, two of the NFL's top defenses like New York's, Flacco had 345 yards passing, three yards rushing, one touchdown, two interceptions and a fumble lost. The Giants will bring their trademark blitzes and attempt to rattle Flacco while blanketing his receivers. I don't like the Ravens' chances to move the chains much, which means that all three members of the maddening Ravens running back corps won't post big stats. The Giants will face the same exact challenges but will be up against a defense with lesser talent in the secondary. Thus, if there ever was a game to let Eli Manning sit in shotgun, run the no-huddle and impersonate his older brother, this is it. It wouldn't even surprise me if Peyton gave Eli a call or two this week and tipped him off on how he broke apart the Ravens defense earlier this year. Remember, the Colts need all the help they can get to make the playoffs and the Ravens are a team that holds a tiebreaker over them. It only makes sense for the Giants to throw downfield and avoid using their running game much until they are near the goal line. That doesn't guarantee big stats for the Giants (the Ravens have allowed zero 300-yard passers, zero 100-yard rushers and one 100-yard receiver, Reggie Wayne), but it does make their players slightly better Fantasy options than Baltimore's. The truth is that the team that commits the most turnovers -- especially in the red zone -- will lose this game. | | | Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, 1:00 pm, Dolphin Stadium | | The Raiders have scored six points in their last two games. They've passed for 178 yards and three interceptions in their last two games. Their leading receiver the last two weeks has been a backup running back. Their running backs haven't rushed for a touchdown since Week 2. And now they are flying across the country to play at 10 a.m. PT against a Dolphins defense that has allowed one 100-yard rusher all season and has allowed three passing touchdowns in their last four games. You might want to think twice about starting any Raiders, including the returning Darren McFadden. As for the Dolphins, the opposite is true. Oakland has allowed a rusher to get 125 yards or more in three of their last four games and has yielded 13 rush touchdowns overall. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams might both score again. Miami will run to set up the pass and burn Oakland deep with Ted Ginn Jr.. Whenever Chad Pennington has time to throw, Ginn is his target. When Pennington is feeling pressure, Greg Camarillo will get passes his way. That's been the case the last few weeks and should be on Sunday when the Raiders bring zero pressure. The Dolphins DST is a top-five option for Week 11 and a sleeper for the rest of the season given their schedule. | | | Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, 1:00 pm, Paul Brown Stadium | | What a perfect get-well game for the Eagles, who match up very well here. The weird thing is that opponents aren't getting big yardage against Cincinnati, as the Bengals have allowed just two 100-yard rushers and one 100-yard receiver. However, the Bengals give up plenty of touchdowns and turn the ball over frequently, the likes of which limit the amount of possible yards a team can gain. Brian Westbrook might not be at 100 percent, but he's good enough to take apart a Bengals run defense that has allowed a dozen scores and gives up a total of 138.1 rush yards per game. Look for Westbrook to be the main focus of the Philly offense on the outside edges, setting up Donovan McNabb to pass down the middle of the field to tight end L.J. Smith and deep lobs to DeSean Jackson. Cincy's pass defense allowed three TDs through the air in two straight games before their pre-bye week victory vs. Jacksonville. As for the Bengals' offense, they're bound to struggle through the air against the Eagles, especially with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. I do think Cedric Benson has a shot to do a little something as the Eagles' run defense has run hot and cold in recent weeks. | | | Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1:00 pm, Bank of America Stadium | | Awful spot for the Lions, who have no identity or consistency at quarterback and no defense to speak of. The Panthers have allowed one 100-yard rusher, one 100-yard receiver and one 300-yard passer all season. With Daunte Culpepper and Drew Stanton splitting duties under center, it's safe to say that they won't total 300 yards. Kevin Smith has turned heads with his recent play and could see some nice carries if the Lions fall behind, and Calvin Johnson will struggle to get a lot of receptions as he'll be double covered for the rest of the season. The Panthers should be able to do as they wish, much like they did last week at Oakland but without the pesky Jake Delhomme interceptions. DeAngelo Williams is still the main rusher to lean on since Jonathan Stewart's heel will limit his reps and totals, and Steve Smith has had at least 96 receiving yards in every home game he's played in this year, with all four of his scores at home (Delhomme plays better at home, too). The Panthers DST should be a popular start this week, too. | | | Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, 1:00 pm, Georgia Dome | | I don't see how the Broncos will be able to run the ball here -- they are down to re-treads and fullbacks at the position and face a Falcons teams that has allowed one 100-yard rusher in their last six games. That said, Jay Cutler is going to be throwing a lot, not just this week but for the rest of the season. The Falcons' secondary has played well, but if they are going to get bombarded by the likes of Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal and Tony Scheffler, they'll break. Exhibit A: The Saints last week. The Falcons' best response will be to run the ball, and they should be able to do so at will against a Broncos run defense that's giving up an average of 146.3 rush yards per game. Michael Turner thrives in great matchups, so he's a no-brainer this week, and Jerious Norwood is a capable low-end No. 3 rusher. As for Matt Ryan, the kid is playing so consistently and has a terrific matchup to boot, so expecting less than 200 yards and two touchdowns is silly. | | | Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, 1:00 pm, Jacksonville Municipal Stadium | | A week after taking to the air against the Bears, look for the Titans to go back to running the ball against a Jacksonville defense that is close to healthy in the secondary but still a mess up front, especially if defensive tackle John Henderson can't play. Figure a typical day for all Titans involved as Chris Johnson gets back on track, LenDale White isn't subbed for a fullback at the goal line and Kerry Collins gets about 175 yards passing. Johnson especially should gash the Jaguars for some nice gains. The Jaguars got back to running last week, and surprise -- they won! Naturally, it was against the lowly Lions, and the Titans are good against the run. Thus, expect Jacksonville to go back to their inexplicable preferred gameplan of throwing the ball, but expect mixed results. It took nine weeks for a receiver to top 100 yards against Tennessee (Donald Driver), and the Jaguars won't have a healthy Matt Jones to throw to five or six times. Marcedes Lewis might be the only reliable receiver David Garrard will have to throw to as the Titans don't always defend tight ends well. | | | Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, 1:00 pm, Lucas Oil Stadium | | Like most teams who have played the Colts lately, the Texans will come into the game with a plan to run Steve Slaton and Ahman Green a lot in an effort to keep the Indy offense off from the field. Such a plan worked earlier this year and would have brought the Texans a win if not for some late turnovers by Sage Rosenfels (Houston held a 27-10 lead in the fourth quarter). Head coach Gary Kubiak said this week that Slaton is a bit worn down and would start sharing the ball more with Green, so expect a close split of the carries between them but figure Slaton, who had a long touchdown run against the Ravens called back last week, to do better. Indy's run defense still hasn't solved itself even with safety Bob Sanders back. Andre Johnson should also continue to be Rosenfels' best outlet. The Colts can battle back any way they want as the Texans' run and pass defenses have huge holes. Peyton Manning needs to keep an eye out for Mario Williams, but otherwise should have a typical field day against the Texans, and Joseph Addai should do well -- if he doesn't, then he's still bothered by injury. The Colts' battered offensive line has its best matchup in a while, too. | | | Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, 1:00 pm, Raymond James Stadium | | This is a very interesting matchup between two teams that both run aggressive versions of the West Coast offense and both employ Cover-2 defenses. The Vikings won't get away from handing off to Adrian Peterson, but they are also going to have to pass since Tampa Bay's defense is excellent against the run. The problem is that the Bucs haven't allowed a 300-yard passer since Week 1 and likely wouldn't allow Gus Frerotte to get there unless he attempts 50 passes, which isn't going to happen. Additionally, wideout Bernard Berrian is averaging 14.0 yards per catch outdoors on grass (14 rec., 197 yards, one TD in three games) vs. 26.5 yards per catch indoors on turf (16 rec., 424 yards, three TDs in six games). The Buccaneers should have some success defensively, and they are rested to boot. Earnest Graham will play hurt, as will Warrick Dunn but not Cadillac Williams, but it's all not going to matter as the Vikings' run defense does well against anyone not named Ryan Grant. That will suit the Bucs just fine as they've taken to passing with Jeff Garcia. Remember that both teams know each other's basic schemes, and that will play into how they defend each other. It might mean a lot of over-the-middle passing that attacks the center hole in the Cover-2 defense, which would help out Visanthe Shiancoe and Jerramy Stevens. Finally, both DSTs should produce some takeaways. | | | St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, 4:05 pm, Candlestick Park | | The Rams' success all comes down to whether or not they can assemble a good running game. That's probably not going to happen because Steven Jackson isn't going to play. It's probably just as well since Jackson's track record against the 49ers is lukewarm -- he has topped 100 total yards in three of his last four but has just one touchdown in his last four overall. Naturally, if the Rams' running game can't get going with Antonio Pittman and Kenneth Darby, their passing game will crumble. The secret is out on Donnie Avery; he's been silenced in his last two games. The 49ers' pass defense has allowed a 100-yard receiver in four of their last six games, but Avery has been making lots of mistakes and leaving a lot of stats out on the field. Hard to trust him, as it is to trust Torry Holt, who can't do what he used to. Look for the Niners to lean on Frank Gore and take some pressure off of Shaun Hill, who came out firing and playing the role of a Mike Martz quarterback last week. Either way, the Niners should post some good stats against a Rams team no longer feeding off the energy of interim coach Jim Haslett. | | | Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, 4:05 pm, Qwest Field | | Expected to face a Seattle defense with a minimal pass rush, count on the Cardinals' offense to continue its aerial assault, even on a short week. Kurt Warner has three straight 300-yard games and eight straight games with at least two touchdowns, and the Seahawks have allowed 14 passing touchdowns this season. There's no way he stumbles here, and that spells success for his receivers. Tim Hightower will also get his fair share of carries, especially once the Cardinals build a lead. For the Seahawks, Matt Hasselbeck's return will bring some optimism, and the Cardinals' defense slumping last week and playing on the road on a short week won't make them play at their best. Hasselbeck should be the catalyst of the Seahawks offense, connecting with Bobby Engram and John Carlson on short-area stuff while balancing the run game along the way (Julius Jones remains the better back there). Hasselbeck shouldn't be too rusty, and he'll have ample opportunity to pass since the Seahawks will be behind once the Cardinals build a lead. Unlike the past six weeks, look for the Seahawks to have a respectable passing offense. | | | San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, 4:15 pm, Heinz Field | | Very tough spot for the Chargers, who barely hung on against a bad Kansas City defense last week. What they should do on offense will likely vary from what they end up doing; they should line up in shotgun with LaDainian Tomlinson in the backfield and four wide receivers spread out (including Darren Sproles as one of them) and throw quick darts on nearly every down while using the no-huddle. By doing so, they negate the Steelers' up-front run defense and force Pittsburgh into blitzing less and playing more pass coverage. While they won't go to that extreme, it is safe to say that the Chargers will throw quite a bit and take advantage of a secondary missing two of its top three cornerbacks. What does that spell for Tomlinson? Frankly, nothing good. Tomlinson's offensive line will struggle, and the Steelers are great at focusing on the run no matter the opponent. If he's going to make a dent, it's going to have to be in the passing game. Tomlinson's track record against dominant run defenses is not especially impressive, and his up-and-down toe injury certainly leaves owners to think twice about starting him, if they can even afford to sit him. No one has topped 100 yards rushing against Pittsburgh yet this year, and Tomlinson isn't a strong candidate to do it. Look for Philip Rivers and physical receiving targets Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson to post good stats. The Steelers will also find themselves in a pickle: The Chargers stink against the pass, but Ben Roethlisberger has been awful in his last three games (one touchdown, eight interceptions). Expect the Steelers to force the issue on the ground with Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore, limiting Roethlisberger's pass attempts unless they are in short range. It's not the best game plan against the Chargers, but it's going to have to work since they can't afford to have Roethlisberger throw more interceptions and wobbly deep balls. | | | Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
Sunday, 8:15 pm, FedEx Field | | Tony Romo is expected back under center this week for the Cowboys, a welcome sight for the Dallas receivers and Fantasy owners alike. With Romo, players like Terrell Owens, Jason Witten and Roy Williams should shine. Without him, they stunk. Washington's secondary got deeper with the addition of DeAngelo Hall this week, but there is no question that Dallas will single him out and throw in his direction as much as possible. Shawn Springs is the key for the Redskins -- if he plays, he'll cover Terrell Owens for much of the game, eliminating the need for double coverage. Springs is known for covering T.O. effectively, so if he's out, you can pretty much expect Owens to have his way against Carlos Rogers and Hall. And even if T.O. and Springs meet on the field, Washington will still have its hands full with Witten and Williams. Throw in Washington's mostly punchless pass rush, and you've got a recipe for Romo to be a Fantasy savior in his grand return ... if that pinkie finger doesn't change his passing velocity or accuracy. No matter how you slice it, Marion Barber should post 'good enough' numbers to make him a No. 1 option. The Redskins, meanwhile, are expected to play the game without Clinton Portis, which would force them to make use of Ladell Betts and Shaun Alexander at running back, which will mean some trouble. The Cowboys secondary is healthier with Terence Newman back, and if Alexander is running the ball, Dallas could easily assign six players in the box and blitz Jason Campbell while crowding Santana Moss. The whole game changes if Portis plays, of course, but without him, they become one-dimensional and predictable. The only salvation might be if Dallas builds a lead and forces Washington to throw to get back into it. Such a scenario would mean nice numbers for Campbell and Moss. | | | Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills
Monday, 8:30 pm, Ralph Wilson Stadium | | Well-rested but knowing they must win, the Browns are catching the Bills at a pretty good time. Buffalo's defense remains shorthanded, meaning more time for Brady Quinn to make decisions and pick apart a depleted secondary. Quinn kept to the short passing game last week and didn't throw anything deep. That's got to change as Braylon Edwards is at his best when he gets the long ball, and Quinn has the arm to get it there. He also has a running back in Jamal Lewis who should pound his way to a good game against a sagging Bills run defense. The Browns shouldn't find any problems putting up points this week, especially if Quinn stays away from making turnovers like he did against the Broncos. The Bills find themselves in a similar position: A must-win game against a team with a minimal pass rush and suspect secondary. Almost the same plan could be expected as Marshawn Lynch, struggling for much of the season, could break through against the Browns, especially on runs to the outer edges. And when he's not running, Trent Edwards going over the top for Lee Evans seems likely. The Browns have allowed a 100-yard receiver in three straight games and a 100-yard rusher in three of their last five. Backed by its home crowd on Monday night, look for Buffalo to post a solid effort all around. | | | N.Y. Jets at New England Patriots
Thursday, 8:15 pm, Gillette Stadium | | The Jets have to see how well the Patriots have done against the run and react accordingly. Since Ronnie Brown went 'Wildcat' and scored four rushing TDs and topped 100 rush yards, the Patriots haven't given up a 100-yard game on the ground or yielded a touchdown run. In three tries against the Pats, Thomas Jones hasn't notched either milestone, and with the Patriots' secondary a liability all signs point to Brett Favre throwing somewhere between 35 and 40 passes. While that sounds good for Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery's prospects, the truth is that neither receiver has a tremendous history against the Pats, especially at Gillette Stadium (Cotchery's last score there was in 2006; Coles' in 2002). Moreover, Favre's been making hay with rookie TE Dustin Keller, who has 12 catches in his last three with a touchdown last week. By comparison, Coles and Cotchery have one score and one 100-yard game in their last five combined! So if Favre's going to throw, it's tough to rely on any Jet receiver to be the beneficiary. The Patriots will likely try and negate the Jets' pass rush with a bevy of short, quick passes. That will really help Wes Welker, who is still on pace to top his 112-reception mark from 2007. I don't like anyone from New England getting to 100 yards on the ground -- the Jets haven't allowed such a performance this season -- but it wouldn't surprise me to see the Patriots use the passing game to get inside the 10 and then pound away on the outer edge of the offensive line to get into the end zone. |
|
|
Fantasy Football updates in your inbox!
Get prepped to set your lineup with the latest player rankings, updates & more delivered directly to your inbox each week. Preview
Dave Richard
Recent Columns
|
