History Lessons: The truth about L.T.

There are a lot of nervous LaDainian Tomlinson owners out there. Already dubbed the Sit of the Week in Jamey Eisenberg's Start Em and Sit Em, the near-consensus No. 1 overall pick in Fantasy drafts this past summer finds himself playing at Pittsburgh against the Steelers in Week 11. He'll not only be facing a run defense ranked second in the NFL with three rush touchdowns allowed (two to a running back), but he'll also be playing on east-coast time.

So we thought we'd see how Tomlinson has done against top run defenses in the past, as well as playing on the east coast, and see if we can learn anything about L.T.'s history. For the sake of time and reasonably significant data, we're looking back at the last five years and judging "top run defenses" as any team ranked in the Top 10 in a given season.

The important thing to take away from these games is how Tomlinson's done in his last two seasons out east and against the tough run defenses. We knew that Tomlinson was a stat machine in his early- and mid-20s, but since his record-breaking 2006 season he's taken some steps backward. He has one touchdown in his last four east-coast games and averaged more than even 3.5 yards per carry once against top-10 run defenses in his last two years (just seven times in his last five years -- these run defenses are good for a reason).

Now, let's break out some stats and glance at numbers that hit both of our targets -- much like L.T. will do Sunday at Pittsburgh. Here's how he's done against top-10 run defenses while playing on the east coast in the last five years:

Again, only once in four such games has Tomlinson overcome such challenges and posted great stats. He didn't top any more than 80 total yards in the other three games. That's a fair expectation for what he'll face on Sunday.

Of course, you might just want to go to the most simple historical data available: How Tomlinson has done against the Steelers in three career games.

As Eisenberg noted in his column, Tomlinson's last meeting with the Steelers resulted during his record-breaking 2006 campaign. But you should also note the consistent receptions he's had in games against Pittsburgh. San Diego is expected to get L.T. involved throwing the ball since running the ball won't make a sizable dent.

History has shown us that while Tomlinson has been one of the best Fantasy running backs out there, even he has struggled against tough run defenses. With Tomlinson already struggling this season -- he hasn't scored on the ground in his last five games and ranks 11th in the NFL in rushing yards -- it's not a bad idea to let him rest in Week 11 and rely on another player to get you some stats.

Food for thought

Because historical data is just part of the equation in determining whether or not a Fantasy option is good or bad, the following notes are more for your information than actual suggestions on starts and sits for the week. If anything, it might help you make a lineup decision.

Bye-week banter

History suggests ...