Nov. 14, 2008

Getting on the defensive: Easy replacements

By Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer

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A lot of injuries to defensive players are sending Fantasy owners scrambling. Here are some details:

Defensive ends Patrick Kerney (shoulder) and Aaron Schobel (foot) are in the midst of a multi-game deactivation skid thanks to injuries. Neither one is a lock to come back this season. Beefy Patriots defensive end Ty Warren missed the team's Week 11 game with a groin injury and Kyle Vanden Bosch might miss his second game for the Titans with the same injury. Tamba Hali is one of the walking wounded for the Chiefs with an ankle injury and Jared Allen of the Vikings is playing through a shoulder separation.

Patriots LB Adalius Thomas has a broken arm but the club isn't placing him on Injured Reserve because they hope to get him back for the playoffs. Fantasy owners have already lost Nick Barnett, D.J. Williams and Zach Diles -- both top 30 Fantasy LBs -- for the season. The Titans' Keith Bulluck is working through a chest/rib injury while the Chiefs' Derrick Johnson isn't a lock to play as he struggles with a thigh problem. And Jets linebacker David Harris, who was a Fantasy hero a year ago, hasn't played in a couple of weeks with a groin ailment of his own.

Buccaneers safety Jermaine Phillips has a broken forearm that is keeping him out of action. Nick Harper of the Titans has been limited by an ankle injury, as has the Colts' Antoine Bethea. Rodney Harrison and Marlin Jackson are out for the year while Champ Bailey continues to rest his groin.

Unlike traditional Fantasy play where drafting a backup to start for your injured star is commonplace, in IDP leagues owners usually have to scour the waiver wire for help. Because most leagues have just 10 or 12 owners starting two or three defensive players at a position, there is always someone out there to pick up in place of an injured or underperforming star.

And sometimes, the replacement turns out to be better than the drafted talent. Here are some surprises thus far in 2008:

Dolphins SS Yeremiah Bell At the beginning of the year, the Dolphins' secondary was considered a joke. Thanks to excellent play up front, the corners and safeties in the southern end of the Sunshine State have gained some Fantasy value. Bell doesn't have an interception but does have 71 total tackles, a fumble recovery (three forced fumbles) and seven passes defensed.

Packers FS Nick Collins Collins' lofty status as one of the premier scorers in Fantasy play is thanks to three interception-returns for touchdowns on the season. Take away the scores but not the interceptions and you'll find that he's still a top-50 overall option, but not a must-start.

Titans CB Cortland Finnegan Left off Fantasy rosters in 80 percent of CBSSports.com leagues, Finnegan has emerged as a top-five player among all IDPs thanks to his four interceptions and 30 total tackles. Now he's unowned in just 20 percent of leagues.

Patriots rookie LB Jerod Mayo Mayo had a 20-total-tackle game against the Jets in Week 11, thanks in part to the Jets running Thomas Jones 30 times. He has 85 total tackles through 10 games and should come close to 125 total on the season.

The moral of the story? If you're unhappy with your current defensive player, finding a replacement is a cinch. Wish it was that easy to find a new running back.

DL matchups

Panthers vs. Lions O-line/passing game The combination of a suspect Lions O-line playing outdoors with the heavy-footed Daunte Culpepper at quarterback makes for a dandy of a matchup for the Panthers. The Lions have given up twice as many sacks (34) as they've recorded (17).
Players to watch: Julius Peppers, Charles Johnson, Tyler Brayton

LB matchups

Dolphins vs. Raiders run game Oakland's passing offense is worn down and talentless. Its run game, however, is going to be at full strength with Darren McFadden playing in Week 11. Look for at least 25 called runs between McFadden and Justin Fargas, making a heavy workload for the Dolphins' linebackers to knock them back.
Players to watch: Joey Porter, Channing Crowder, Akin Ayodele

Packers vs. Bears run game Especially with Nick Barnett done for the season, the Bears should come off the bus running against Green Bay. A.J. Hawk will move to the middle of the Green Bay defense, but he'll only be able to cover so much ground. He'll get some help, and he'll need it.
Players to watch: A.J. Hawk, Brady Poppinga, Desmond Bishop

Jaguars vs. Titans run game Even though the Titans threw a bunch last week at Chicago, chances are they won't repeat the feat unless they have to against the Jaguars this week. The Titans' powerful rushing duo ran the ball 30 total times in their Week 1 meeting and should have a similar formula this week.
Players to watch: Daryl Smith, Justin Durant

DB matchups

Steelers vs. Chargers pass game With San Diego's run game already lagging compared to past years, and the Steelers' incredible run defense, it's only going to be a matter of time until Philip Rivers is forced to put the ball in the air. Even with some defensive backs missing, the Steelers should capitalize.
Players to watch: Ike Taylor, Troy Polamalu, Ryan Clark, Tyrone Carter

Falcons vs. Broncos pass game At least the Chargers have a running game -- the Broncos are left with fullbacks and re-treads at running back. That said, Jay Cutler should put the ball up somewhere between 40 and 50 times on Sunday, raising the chances for an interception for the Falcons' DBs.
Players to watch: Erik Coleman, Lawyer Milloy, Brent Grimes, Chris Houston

PUP list in Mendenhall's future
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
2:15 PM

News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Mendenhall tore his right ACL in Week 17 of last season; recovery time for such injuries is anywhere from nine months to a year.

Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He'll likely get the first crack at starting in place of Mendenhall. There's still a lot of time between now and the regular season, but for now it's probably safe to expect Mendenhall to not be at even close to 100 percent to start the year, which will absolutely impact his Fantasy value. By August, you might be drafting Mendenhall as a middle- to late-round sleeper you'll have to sit on for a while. We'll keep you posted on Mendenhall as best as we can.

Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
10:10 AM

News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to." NFL Network reports that teams have already been calling his agent following the news.

Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
9:39 AM

News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.

Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
9:36 AM

News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.

Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Redman in line to start for Steelers?
Isaac Redman, RB, PIT
2:23 PM

News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. That would open the door for Isaac Redman to be the starting rusher entering training camp.

Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He's also stepped up while working with Mendenhall and without him, though his one other start in 2011 was a flop (61 total yards, no touchdowns vs. Tennessee). By August we might recommend drafting Redman with a pick in Round 6 or 7 as a good early-season starting option with potential to be a quality Fantasy choice for the entire season. We'll see how the Steelers' run game shakes out.

Slaton, Dolphins likely parting ways
Steve Slaton, RB, MIA
12:56 PM

News: The Palm Beach Post reports that RB Steve Slaton is not expected to return to the Dolphins in 2012. Slaton played in three games this season with zero starts after being picked up on waivers before Week 4. He had 17 carries for 64 yards (3.8 average) with one touchdown and a long of 28 and also returned three kickoffs for 85 yards. Slaton was signed as insurance early in the season when both Reggie Bush (groin) and Daniel Thomas (hamstring) battled injuries.

Analysis: Keep an eye on where Slaton plays in 2012, but he likely has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in all leagues on Draft Day.

Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
11:14 AM

News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”

Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
9:53 AM

News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on the future of Hines Ward. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported previously that if the Steelers did decide to release Ward, he was unaware of it. NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report. Ward's 2012 salary is high and he's expected to at least take a significant pay cut, if not get released altogether. Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.

Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
9:49 AM

News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.

Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

Panthers could bring back Shockey
Jeremy Shockey, TE, CAR
9:46 AM

News: The Charlotte Observer considers re-signing free agent TE Jeremy Shockey a "high priority" this offseason. Shockey was the No. 2 TE for the Panthers behind Greg Olsen, and he had a productive season when he caught 37 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns and missed only one game to injury.

Analysis: Though not the same receiver he was a decade ago, Shockey still is a dependable target, particularly in the red zone. If his asking price is too high, Panthers could turn to Gary Barnidge, who was having a great 2011 camp before breaking his ankle. Keep an eye on what happens with Shockey, and if he returns to the Panthers as expected he would be a No. 2 Fantasy TE on Draft Day worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

More Updates

1	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tom Brady, NE, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Matthew Stafford, DET, QB
6	Philip Rivers, SD, QB
7	Eli Manning, NYG, QB
8	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
9	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
10	Peyton Manning, IND, QB
All Rankings

1	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
2	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
3	Ray Rice, BAL, RB
4	Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC, RB
5	Matt Forte, CHI, RB
6	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
7	Ryan Mathews, SD, RB
8	Chris Johnson, TEN, RB
9	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
10	Steven Jackson, STL, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Wes Welker, NE, WR
3	Roddy White, ATL, WR
4	Larry Fitzgerald, ARI, WR
5	Hakeem Nicks, NYG, WR
6	Greg Jennings, GB, WR
7	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
8	A.J. Green, CIN, WR
9	Mike Wallace, PIT, WR
10	Miles Austin, DAL, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
5	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
6	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
7	Vernon Davis, SF, TE
8	Jermichael Finley, GB, TE
9	Brent Celek, PHI, TE
10	Fred Davis, WAS, TE
All Rankings

1	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
2	Mason Crosby, GB, K
3	Sebastian Janikowski, OAK, K
4	David Akers, SF, K
5	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
6	Dan Bailey, DAL, K
7	Jason Hanson, DET, K
8	Neil Rackers, HOU, K
9	Alex Henery, PHI, K
10	Nate Kaeding, SD, K
All Rankings

1	49ers, DST
2	Texans, DST
3	Ravens, DST
4	Giants, DST
5	Steelers, DST
6	Seahawks, DST
7	Eagles, DST
8	Packers, DST
9	Jets, DST
10	Patriots, DST
All Rankings