Fantasy & Reality: Getting crabby about Baltimore
By Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer Follow DaveFollow CBS Fantasy Football
Last week, the Ravens running game gave Fantasy owners headaches. This week, the Ravens run defense gave Fantasy owners headaches.
If you ever wanted to see a half-man, half-brick wall run with purpose (and dollar signs in his eyes), all the while making a feared crew of 11 defenders look like boys, you saw it at the Meadowlands on Sunday thanks to Giants running back Brandon Jacobs. His long carry of 36 yards saw him blast right into one of the Ravens' linemen at the line of scrimmage, spin to his left and out-run three Ravens defenders, including Terrell Suggs, before being forced out down the left sideline. His second-longest run also went down the left side, and both of his touchdown plunges involved beating All-Pro linebacker Ray Lewis to the end zone. All of this was in the first quarter of the Giants' pasting over the Ravens, by the way.
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| A quarter of Brandon Jacobs' owners did not benefit from his Week 11 performance. (US Presswire) |
Now here's where things get funny. According to the New York Times, Giants center Shaun O'Hara claimed that the Giants' game plan Sunday was never to excessively run the ball. Instead, the club wanted to throw the ball down field and attack the thin Baltimore secondary. But between Jacobs' hot start, and maybe because of the blustery conditions at the Meadowlands, the Giants went in another direction. Once the Giants' offense built a lead, it was obvious that their own strong defense would corral the Ravens, force them to be one-dimensional and dictate the tempo of the game. As a result, the Giants wound up running 31 times against Baltimore. On average, Ravens opponents prior to Week 11 attempted 22.2 rushes per game and 65.4 rush yards per game.
Like many Fantasy owners, I benched Jacobs in my keeper league this week and paid the price (thanks for those 18 yards and one touchdown, Deuce McAllister). I spent some time thinking about the mistake I made in sitting Jacobs, along with recommending to others that they too should sit Jacobs, and came to this conclusion: Had I suggested you started Jacobs against the NFL's best run defense, I would have done Fantasy owners a disservice. What proof could anyone have come up with that would have made him an appealing Fantasy option? That he's at home? Right, because that worked out well for Rashard Mendenhall, Joseph Addai and Steve Slaton earlier this year. Because he's good? Of course, but so were many of the last 28 running backs the Ravens faced, and they didn't generate a ton of yards. Face it, logic worked against considering Jacobs a reliable Fantasy option in Week 11.
Here's the last few words on Jacobs: What he showed in Week 11 was the kind of fearless power running that NFL coaches dream about. He was lowering his shoulder and bruising his way through the Ravens when he wasn't drifting past them on the sidelines. A running back so physical yet so fast? NFL coaches want to find the mold and mass produce them. And isn't Jacobs prone to injury? Not this year, not yet anyway. That's the contract year talkin'.
Figure that you won't make the same mistake of benching Jacobs the rest of the year thanks to his not-so jarring schedule of opponents he and the G-Men have left. That includes a Week 17 date at Minnesota, though I suspect he'll be resting up for the playoff push by then.
Fantasy & Reality
Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) during the week's action.
Fantasy: LaDainian Tomlinson will be wrapped up by the Steelers. L.T. did enough to aid his Fantasy owners, but it wasn't without some help. A pass-interference call on the Steelers in the end zone set up his touchdown run, and 25 of his 57 rush yards came on a series of three rushes on the Chargers' fourth quarter drive that temporarily gave them the lead. Tomlinson was otherwise brutal, but that was expected. The good news is that he'll face the Colts and their awful run defense at home in Week 12 and should hang up 100 yards on them. Note that I said should.
Reality: The proverbial "rookie wall" still isn't being hit by some rushers. A week ago, people were writing the obituary on Steve Slaton's first NFL season thanks in part to comments made by Gary Kubiak. Well, apparently nothing obliterates a rookie wall like a matchup against the Colts without safety Bob Sanders. Slaton exploded for 156 yards on just 14 carries with a touchdown, and he was one of three rookies (Jonathan Stewart, Kevin Smith) to top 100 yards in Week 11. Someone get the memo out to Chris Johnson and Tim Hightower that there are still six more games left in the regular season, though.
Fantasy: Peyton Hillis isn't worth adding to Fantasy rosters. He's not going to be confused with Darren McFadden or Felix Jones over the course of his career, but believe it or not he is just as effective as his Arkansas first-round running mates this season. Hillis has 228 total yards and three touchdowns, nearly all of it coming in his last two games. McFadden has 448 total yards, one touchdown and two hurt big toes; Jones has 276 total yards and three touchdowns, but he's sidelined with a torn hamstring. Any running back in Denver's backfield is worth keeping an eye on, and with Hillis catching passes and punching it in from the goal line Michael Pittman style, he's got to be on Fantasy rosters.
Reality: I'm sold on Shaun Hill. I was concerned that the 49ers would use Hill as a caretaking-type quarterback that wouldn't lose games for the team like J.T. O'Sullivan did. I was right, he was turnover-free vs. the Rams Sunday, but he also totaled three touchdowns and missed on five of 20 passes. He doesn't seem like the type who will wow you with stats -- he notched back-to-back 200-yard passing games for the first time in his career over his last two games -- but he's got a nose for the end zone, totaling 10 in his last four starts. Of course, right when we realize his upside, he heads into a terrible stretch on the schedule where he'll play away from home in four of his next five games including at Dallas next week and two trips to the East Coast. Yuck.
Fantasy: Matt Cassel can't throw or handle pressure. Maybe it was because he threw 51 passes and was forced to throw because his team was playing from behind, but we got a glimpse at Cassel's upside in his 400-yard, three-touchdown effort vs. the Jets on Thursday. And how about this: Of Cassel's 400 yards, only 26 of them went to Randy Moss. Of his 51 passes, seven were thrown to Moss. That makes the feat all the more amazing considering that after Wes Welker, Cassel has tight end Benjamin Watson and Jabar Gaffney as receiving options. NFL personnel people are scrutinizing Cassel this season since he'll be attainable and likely a starter for another club in 2009.
Reality: Brian Westbrook isn't the problem in Philadelphia -- the play calling is. The Eagles ran 76 plays from scrimmage Sunday. Westbrook was involved in 17 of them -- 14 rushes and three catches, and eight of those 17 plays were good for at least 4 yards. That tells me that he's still pretty effective. But if he is supposed to be your best offensive weapon, shouldn't he be involved in more than 22 percent of your offensive plays? Additionally, the Philadelphia Daily News had Bengals cornerback Johnathan Joseph on the record calling the Eagles' playcalling "predictable." That's awful. Frankly, the Eagles need to change things up and remember No. 36 is on the team -- assuming that he's healthy.
Strategy Session
Randy Moss and Terrell Owens are starting for me but not producing like I had hoped. What's my move?
About the only thing worse than losing a stud player to a season-ending injury is watching a player you drafted high with great expectations struggle. There seems to be more than a few of them this season, but no two are more high profile than T.O. and Moss, who set the NFL record for touchdown receptions in a season a year ago.
When you have a player with big-name hype and potential but low production, there's almost an obligation to start him each week. If you win, it's sometimes in spite of him. If you lose, you can almost look at the low stats the player is providing and know that had he played to expectations, you might have won.
In standard-scoring leagues, Moss and T.O. rank 20th and 21st respectively. That's far below where they were last season as top-five Fantasy wideouts. Owens hasn't scored more than 10 points in those leagues since Week 5 (Moss since Week 8), and neither player has had an explosive outing with more than 20 Fantasy points. By comparison, T.J. Houshmandzadeh has had three 20-point Fantasy weeks. Worst of all, Owens and Moss rank in the top 25 in targets. Owens has been thrown at 82 times but has just 40 receptions to show for it. Moss has been thrown at 76 times and has 46 catches. These guys are getting chances but not making plays, and that's discouraging. If not for their touchdown production (six for T.O. but just one since Week 5, and five for Moss), these guys would be sunk.
You could try and trade Owens or Moss away, but would you get a good player in return? If you could, jump on it. If not, you're stuck. You can't cut them. Your only option is to bench them, and you can't do it when the matchup isn't right because when is a matchup not right for these guys? The key is benching them when the matchup is right for another receiver on your team.
Over the last four weeks, upstart receivers like Ted Ginn Jr., Lance Moore, Kevin Walter, Mark Bradley and Justin Gage have played well and delivered big stats. Each of these players has had double-digit Fantasy point totals in at least two of their last four games, which is more than you could say for Owens and Moss.
Cover up the names on your roster and go with the hotter receiver. In Week 12, for example, both Owens and Moss have good matchups against secondaries that have had their fair share of trouble this season (Dallas hosts San Francisco; New England plays at Miami). But Gage and the Titans will surely continue working their passing game against a Jets pass defense that just got "Casseled;" Ginn will take on the Patriots, who haven't been strong against the pass; Bradley is back at home against a Bills team that will have played six days prior; and Walter's Texans play at the Browns, who will not only enter that game on a short week following their Monday game at Buffalo but remain sorely lacking talent in their defensive backfield. You could make a case that those four receivers (Moore has a challenging matchup vs. the Packers) could replace Owens or Moss in Week 12.
The lesson here is to just reconsider the value of Owens and Moss when setting your lineup. If you want to leave them in your lineup because they were so great last year, that's up to you. But if I owned these guys, I'd at least give some thought to going in another direction on a week-by-week basis. If you need help with that, just drop us a line.
Parting shots
• How about that wild ending in the Chargers-Steelers game? In case you missed it, the Chargers were down by one with five seconds left and 80 yards to go. Instead of a futile Hail Mary play, Philip Rivers dumped the ball off to LaDainian Tomlinson, who seemingly lateraled to Chris Chambers, who tried to lateral back to Rivers but had the ball swiped by Troy Polamalu, who ran it in for a touchdown. After discussion by the referees, they called Tomlinson's lateral an illegal forward pass, negating the play.
But had they not, the Steelers would have won by more than a point, and the Fantasy ramifications might have been huge. Let's say you played in a points-per-reception league and had Chris Chambers, and your opponent had Tomlinson and the Steelers DST. Tomlinson's catch from Rivers would have counted (one point), Chambers would have been credited with a fumble lost (minus-two points) and Polamalu's touchdown would have been good (six points). Potentially a nine-point swing in Fantasy, and it was wiped away by the refs.
I'll tell you this: Anyone who owns the Steelers DST and lost by five points or less is not in a good mood today.
• The Colts may be 6-4, but they are 2-0 in games gift-wrapped by Sage Rosenfels. Where was Rosenfels going with his last pass there?
• Right when I was about to write "Nice to see a week without significant offensive injuries," Buccaneers coach Jon Gruden announces that Earnest Graham's season is in jeopardy with a serious ankle injury. Expect him to be out for the season, and expect Warrick Dunn to get assigned the heavy lifting for the Bucs everywhere except at the goal line, where they may opt for fullback B.J. Askew. I'm not sure where Cadillac Williams fits in, but I wouldn't expect him to play a major role just yet.
• Much appreciation from those of you who wrote in applauding the annual trade deadline schedule preview. If you missed it, you just passed the link. Just ignore the part where I wrote that Brian Westbrook's matchup at Cincinnati would be good.
• What a back-breaking loss for the Falcons, and a much-needed win for the Broncos. The stunner from that game was just 27 passing attempts for Jay Cutler, which means that Denver found a way to move the ball with Hillis, P.J. Pope and Tatum Bell. You could tell that the Falcons were defending the pass and not the run.
• The office buzz from the Eagles-Bengals game was two-fold. One, the game shouldn't have ended in a tie; the Bengals scored a defensive touchdown legally but it wasn't ruled as such on the field, and the Bengals didn't challenge or punch it in from a yard out, resulting in a first-quarter field goal. Two, the Eagles really should have lost the game thanks to a smattering of turnovers.
• I don't see the problem with Donovan McNabb not knowing NFL games can end in a tie. At the very least, I would want a quarterback who has the must-win mentality and not even think twice about tying (most quarterbacks have that mentality to begin with). Plus, the NFL isn't like the NHL, where ties were commonplace until a few years back; you might see an NFL tie four times a decade. I don't think his not knowing that games can end in a tie changed his performance one way or another.
• I do see a problem with McNabb's accuracy, though. Heck, it's been hit-or-miss for years. That deserves your attention, Philadelphia.
• Kurt Warner had an eight-game multi-touchdown streak snapped in Week 11. The last time Warner started and didn't throw a touchdown? Eighteen games ago, when he went without a scoring strike at Tampa Bay in Week 9 last season.
Dumb fact of the day: My daughter was born on that very day. So since she's been born, Warner's thrown at least one score in every game.
• If Luis Castillo and Jacques Cesaire miss any time from the Chargers' defensive line, their run defense will match their pass defense as far as giving up gaping chunks of yardage. Joseph Addai will be giddy this week if they're out.
• The Giants are 9-1 and are being lauded as the best team in the NFL by analysts everywhere. They rank first in run offense by nearly a 20-yard average over Atlanta, they are the only team in the bottom half of passing offenses with over 15 touchdown passes. They rank eighth against the run but are tied for third in rush touchdowns allowed (four) and are ranked second vs. the pass by just a few yards behind the Steelers. They look unstoppable at this point.
So I guess my only question is, How in the world did they manage to lose by three touchdowns to the Browns in Week 6?
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