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Jamey Eisenberg

Waiver Wire: Head for the Hillis!

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Since Clinton Portis was traded to Washington for Champ Bailey prior to the 2004 season, the Broncos have had a different leading rusher every year for the past four seasons.

It went from Reuben Droughns (2004) to Mike Anderson (2005) to Tatum Bell (2006) to Selvin Young (2007). Fantasy owners have latched on to Denver's prominent ground game for years, and other running backs have also chipped in, with Mike Bell (2006) and Travis Henry (2007).

Some have panned out and others have flopped, but they have all been worth taking a chance on with a late draft pick or a waiver wire addition.

Who would've thought that Peyton Hillis would have Fantasy value heading into Week 12. (AP)  
Who would've thought that Peyton Hillis would have Fantasy value heading into Week 12. (AP)  
This year, once Henry was released, Young was expected to lead the way again with help from Andre Hall, but both got hurt early in the season, with Young still trying to work his way back from a groin injury. That opened the door for Michael Pittman to shine, and he had Fantasy relevance for a few weeks before being lost for the year with a neck injury.

Ryan Torain, a promising rookie in training camp before hurting his elbow, returned in Week 10 but only had one game at Cleveland before suffering a torn ACL. With Young still out, the Broncos needed help in Week 11 at Atlanta.

Tatum Bell, who was jettisoned to Detroit last year before being cut and walking off with Rudi Johnson's luggage, was brought back to share carries with seventh-round draft pick Peyton Hillis, a converted fullback. The Broncos also activated P.J. Pope from the practice squad.

It was a true committee against the Falcons, with Hillis rushing for 44 yards and two touchdowns on 10 carries before leaving with a shoulder injury, and Bell (seven carries for 34 yards) and Pope (four carries for 35 yards) finishing the job. Hillis, who also added three catches for 26 yards, is expected to be fine.

If you're looking for a late-season addition at running back, grab Hillis. He is only owned in 41 percent of leagues on CBSSports.com.

Hillis already had a big receiving game in Week 9 against Miami with seven catches for 116 yards and a touchdown.

"He's got excellent hands," Denver coach Mike Shanahan said after the Falcons game. "He might have the best hands on our football team."

Hillis also has a chance to be the best Fantasy running back from the University of Arkansas this year. He has 228 total yards and three touchdowns compared to fellow Razorbacks rookies Darren McFadden (448 total yards and one touchdown) and Felix Jones (276 total yards and three touchdowns).

But Hillis has more upside at this point with McFadden dealing with turf toe and Jones still out with the hamstring injury. The only downside for Hillis could be sharing carries with Bell and Pope.

For now, continue to monitor how many carries each player gets heading into Week 12 against Oakland, but add Hillis now and pick up Bell (25 percent) in deeper leagues. You can wait on Pope (1 percent), and we'll see what happens if Young (42 percent) can return, but he might be worth stashing.

The Broncos have become a running back by committee again. But if history repeats itself in Denver and an unknown rusher comes out of nowhere like Hillis, you'll want that player on your Fantasy team.

He could play dividends once the playoffs start.

In case you haven't noticed ... It's time to add Jets tight end Dustin Keller. Brett Favre has turned the rookie from Purdue into the Jets best receiver the past two weeks. Keller had eight catches for 87 yards at New England and six catches for 107 yards and a touchdown the week before against St. Louis. He is only owned in 45 percent of leagues, so pick him up and start him as a No. 1 Fantasy tight end. He has a great remaining schedule, and Favre will continue to look in his direction.

Each Monday we will highlight players who might be available in your league and whether you should consider picking them up off waivers based on their recent performances. The players chosen are based on the percentage of ownership in CBSSports.com leagues.

Add 'Em

Kerry Collins, QB, Tennessee
Owned: 27 percent of leagues
Week 11: Completed 13-of-23 passes for 230 yards, three touchdowns and one interception at Jacksonville.
Analysis: OK, it's time to give Collins his due even though he was an "avoid" last week. He now has five touchdowns in his past two games with 519 passing yards and only one interception against the Jaguars and Bears. And he has another great matchup in Week 12 against the Jets, who defend the run well but struggle in pass defense. Collins is making the most of his limited weapons with Justin Gage and Bo Scaife, and Gage (19 percent) is worth consideration right now with four catches for 147 yards and two touchdowns against Jacksonville and three scores in his past two games. Collins should also shine in Week 13 at Detroit, Week 14 against Cleveland and Week 15 at Houston.

Shaun Hill, QB, San Francisco
Owned: 18 percent of leagues
Week 11: Completed 15-of-20 passes for 213 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions and scored a rushing touchdown against St. Louis.
Analysis: Hill probably should have been the 49ers starter coming into this season. He finished last year with five touchdowns and one interception in three games and now has 10 touchdowns and three interceptions in six appearances. As you know, we're fans of Mike Martz quarterbacks, and Hill is playing for his future. The 49ers might not be going anywhere this year, but Hill could help your Fantasy team down the stretch. Hill will be doing plenty of passing, and he has proven in a short amount of time he can be a productive Fantasy quarterback.

Antonio Pittman, RB, St. Louis
Owned: 23 percent of leagues
Week 11: Had 14 carries for 95 yards and three catches for 4 yards at San Francisco.
Analysis: With Steven Jackson out again for Week 12 with a thigh injury, Pittman could have a great ending to his season. After games against Chicago and Miami the next two weeks, Pittman closes the season with Arizona, Seattle, San Francisco and Atlanta, all teams that struggle against the run.

Cadillac Williams, RB, Tampa Bay
Owned: 47 percent of leagues
Week 11: Did not play.
Analysis: With the news that Earnest Graham (ankle) could be out for the year, that means Warrick Dunn will be the starter for the Bucs, with Williams now elevated to No. 2. He was activated off the PUP list this past week but inactive against Minnesota. That will change in Week 12 at Detroit. Don't plan on starting Williams any time soon, but he should definitely be added. And if Dunn gets hurt, Williams would then become a No. 3 Fantasy running back if he ever returns as the starter for Tampa Bay. And if he shows his old burst prior to last year's knee injury, Williams could be a tremendous addition to your Fantasy team.

Avoid 'Em

Martellus Bennett, TE, Dallas
Owned: 1 percent of leagues
Week 11: Had one catch for 25 yards and a touchdown at Washington.
Analysis: Don't expect Bennett to take over for Jason Witten even though Bennett scored against the Redskins. Witten is still fine even with the broken ribs. Bennett could be a solid player down the road, but he remains the No. 2 tight end for the Cowboys and low on the pecking order when it comes to passes from Tony Romo. Bennett isn't going to turn into a quality Fantasy tight end this season.

Ronald Curry, WR, Oakland
Owned: 8 percent of leagues
Week 11: Had six catches for 73 yards at Miami.
Analysis: Don't get excited with Curry's performance because one week he might look good and the next he could be inactive. Now, he's likely to remain a part of the game plan with Javon Walker (ankle) out, but the Raiders passing game is terrible. There are other receivers worth investing in at this time like Deion Branch (17 percent), who returned for Seattle in Week 11 against Arizona with four catches for 54 yards.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Cincinnati
Owned: 6 percent of leagues
Week 11: Completed 29-of-44 passes for 261 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions against Philadelphia.
Analysis: It appears more likely each week that Fitzpatrick will remain the starter for the Bengals with Carson Palmer (elbow) unlikely to return. But even though Fitzpatrick had his first game over 200 yards this year in Week 11, he's not going to turn into a quality Fantasy option. He has struggled to consistently hook up with T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Johnson, and the Bengals have a brutal schedule the rest of the way.

Others to monitor ...

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Giants
Owned: 16 percent of leagues
Week 11: Had nine carries for 96 yards against Baltimore.
Analysis: Bradshaw is the No. 3 running back for the Giants, and he typically plays when the game is out of reach. He's behind Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward on the depth chart, and both are healthy and playing well. Still, if either running back suffers an injury, Bradshaw would step in and shine. He nearly snapped Baltimore's streak of 28 games without allowing a 100-yard rusher, and it's too bad he doesn't get more playing time.

Pierre Thomas, RB, New Orleans
Owned: 20 percent of leagues
Week 11: Had 16 carries for 88 yards and a touchdown and four catches for 56 yards at Kansas City.
Analysis: Thomas showed he could be Reggie Bush with Bush missing his third game with a knee injury. But if Bush returns in Week 12 against Green Bay as expected, Thomas will return to the bench. Bush thought he could return against the Chiefs, so he could be limited again, which would open the door for another good game for Thomas. Keep an eye on what happens with Bush, but consider Thomas a good pick up if Bush misses another game. He would continue to share time with Deuce McAllister, but we saw Thomas shine in Kansas City.

Do you have a question? Send your thoughts to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and we'll post the best responses. Be sure to put Attn: Waiver Wire in the subject field. Include your name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
Rashard Mendenhall
PUP list in Mendenhall's future
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
2:15 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Mendenhall tore his right ACL in Week 17 of last season; recovery time for such injuries is anywhere from nine months to a year.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He'll likely get the first crack at starting in place of Mendenhall. There's still a lot of time between now and the regular season, but for now it's probably safe to expect Mendenhall to not be at even close to 100 percent to start the year, which will absolutely impact his Fantasy value. By August, you might be drafting Mendenhall as a middle- to late-round sleeper you'll have to sit on for a while. We'll keep you posted on Mendenhall as best as we can.

Randy Moss
Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
10:10 AM
News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to."
Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Calvin Johnson
Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
9:39 AM
News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.
Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

DeSean Jackson
Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
9:36 AM
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.
Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Isaac Redman
Redman in line to start for Steelers?
Isaac Redman, RB, PIT
2:23 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. That would open the door for Isaac Redman to be the starting rusher entering training camp.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He's also stepped up while working with Mendenhall and without him, though his one other start in 2011 was a flop (61 total yards, no touchdowns vs. Tennessee). By August we might recommend drafting Redman with a pick in Round 6 or 7 as a good early-season starting option with potential to be a quality Fantasy choice for the entire season. We'll see how the Steelers' run game shakes out.

Steve Slaton
Slaton, Dolphins likely parting ways
Steve Slaton, RB, MIA
12:56 PM
News: The Palm Beach Post reports that RB Steve Slaton is not expected to return to the Dolphins in 2012. Slaton played in three games this season with zero starts after being picked up on waivers before Week 4. He had 17 carries for 64 yards (3.8 average) with one touchdown and a long of 28 and also returned three kickoffs for 85 yards. Slaton was signed as insurance early in the season when both Reggie Bush (groin) and Daniel Thomas (hamstring) battled injuries.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Slaton plays in 2012, but he likely has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in all leagues on Draft Day.

Doug Baldwin
Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
11:14 AM
News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”
Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Hines Ward
Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
9:53 AM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on the future of Hines Ward. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported previously that if the Steelers did decide to release Ward, he was unaware of it. NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report. Ward's 2012 salary is high and he's expected to at least take a significant pay cut, if not get released altogether. Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Josh Morgan
Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
9:49 AM
News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

Jeremy Shockey
Panthers could bring back Shockey
Jeremy Shockey, TE, CAR
9:46 AM
News: The Charlotte Observer considers re-signing free agent TE Jeremy Shockey a "high priority" this offseason. Shockey was the No. 2 TE for the Panthers behind Greg Olsen, and he had a productive season when he caught 37 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns and missed only one game to injury.
Analysis: Though not the same receiver he was a decade ago, Shockey still is a dependable target, particularly in the red zone. If his asking price is too high, Panthers could turn to Gary Barnidge, who was having a great 2011 camp before breaking his ankle. Keep an eye on what happens with Shockey, and if he returns to the Panthers as expected he would be a No. 2 Fantasy TE on Draft Day worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

 
 
 
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