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Jamey Eisenberg

Week 11 Fantasy Stockwatch

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Each week, we'll survey the Fantasy Football landscape and provide you with a list of players whose Fantasy value has increased or decreased over the course of the past week. The arrows indicate which way a player's stock is heading, but you'll have to read what we have to say to know whether you should hold on to a player or make a move to trade him -- or trade for him.

Tyler Thigpen, QB, Kansas City
I know most of you who picked up Thigpen either have an established quarterback or have been afraid to use him, but he's been one of the best Fantasy options the past four weeks. Since taking over as the starter, Thigpen has passed for eight touchdowns and one interception and also caught a touchdown pass. With Dwayne Bowe, Tony Gonzalez and now Mark Bradley, he has a solid receiving corps, so it's time to consider him a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback. And he has a great schedule remaining against Buffalo, Oakland, Denver, San Diego, Miami and Cincinnati.
Kyle Orton, QB, Chicago
Orton went from a top 12 Fantasy quarterback before the ankle injury in Week 9 to out of the top 15, and now we'll find out if he can rebound to still help Fantasy owners down the stretch. He looked rusty against Green Bay, but he has favorable matchups remaining against St. Louis, Minnesota, Jacksonville, New Orleans and Houston. He should play well in those games, but it will be interesting if Fantasy owners can trust him during the playoffs. He will have to shine against the Rams and Vikings the next two weeks to earn that trust again.
Matt Cassel, QB, New England
Raise your hand if you saw that coming against the Jets. Well, now we know that Cassel is capable of being Tom Brady in Brady's offense. He threw for 400 yards and three touchdowns and ran for 62 yards, and we'll see what he does for an encore in Week 12 at Miami. If he puts up another solid performance, you might be able to start Cassel in the playoffs since the Patriots play Seattle, Oakland, Arizona and Buffalo to close the season. Or it might just be that the Jets pass defense is that bad, and Cassel just took advantage of the matchup. Either way, it was fun to watch, and gives Cassel owners something to think about.
Donovan McNabb, QB, Philadelphia
Forget about not knowing the rules about a tie. That's irrelevant here. What does matter for Fantasy owners is McNabb throwing three interceptions at Cincinnati, and he now has five interceptions in his past three games. The Eagles don't need McNabb throwing the ball 58 times. What Philadelphia should do is give Brian Westbrook more touches, including the passing game, and that will open up things for McNabb. You're still going to start him as a No. 1 Fantasy option, but he needs to play better in games when he has a favorable matchup. He faces Baltimore in Week 12, which is a good test to see how he performs coming off a poor game.
Kevin Smith, RB, Detroit
If there's one positive to take from this debacle in Detroit this year it's that Smith keeps getting better as the season goes on. He has three touchdowns in his past five games and had his first 100-yard game at Carolina. Smith has three tough matchups coming up against Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Tennessee, but he closes the season against Indianapolis, New Orleans and Green Bay. The Lions might not win a game this season with that schedule, but Smith could be starting for your Fantasy team for the final three weeks of the season. And in keeper leagues, Smith is showing his value for next year is high.
Laveranues Coles, WR, New York Jets
If you knew the Jets scored 107 points the past three weeks, you would think Coles had some amazing stats. Not exactly. In the past three games against Buffalo, St. Louis and New England, Coles has nine catches for 92 yards and no touchdowns. Brett Favre, when he's had to pass, is using Dustin Keller, Jerricho Cotchery and Leon Washington. No wonder Coles hated Favre when he first signed. Obviously, those problems are a thing of the past, but Coles has to be getting frustrated. The same goes for his Fantasy owners, who are getting antsy to see if he can turn his season around. For now, consider Coles a No. 3 Fantasy wide receiver and hope Favre starts going to him again.
Hines Ward, WR, Pittsburgh
Ward has rebounded nicely from his two 30-yard outings in Weeks 8 and 9 against the Giants and Washington with two-straight 100-yard games against Indianapolis and San Diego. He's been the lone bright spot in the Steelers' passing game with Ben Roethlisberger dealing with his shoulder woes. Even though Roethlisberger hasn't thrown a touchdown in his past three games, Ward continues to help Fantasy owners. He has returned as a No. 2 Fantasy wide receiver and should be started in all leagues for the rest of the season. If he starts to score again, that would be an added bonus.
Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo
Where have you gone Josh Reed? Can it really be that Reed's absence has ruined Evans' season? Since Reed went down with an ankle injury in Week 8 against Miami, Evans has six catches for 63 yards in three games, including zero catches Monday against Cleveland. Teams are doubling Evans, and Trent Edwards can't get him the ball. This is going to continue until Reed returns, and Fantasy owners just can't start Evans right now. Evans was only targeted one time against the Browns, and that's pathetic. Take some shots downfield, and maybe Evans comes down with the ball or you draw a pass interference call. The Bills need to realize it's not that hard to involve your best receiver in the game.
Ted Ginn, Jr., WR, Miami
The Dolphins are doing whatever they can to get Ginn involved in the offense, and that's a good thing for Fantasy owners. Against Oakland on Sunday, Ginn had a 40-yard touchdown run to go with four catches for 51 yards. He has become a viable Fantasy option, and he's worth starting as a No. 3 wide receiver for the rest of the season. The Dolphins face some favorable pass defenses with New England, St. Louis, Buffalo, San Francisco, Kansas City and the Jets. Ginn should play well in all those games, so start to use him just like the Dolphins have.
Bernard Berrian, WR, Minnesota
Can you still start Berrian as a No. 1 or 2 Fantasy option? That's the question owners are asking after he struggled the past two weeks with three catches for 46 yards and no touchdowns against Green Bay and Tampa Bay. Both defenses excel in pass coverage, so it's no surprise Berrian had a difficult time. But since his quarterback is Gus Frerotte, there's a chance Berrian's impressive run might be near an end. We'll see how Berrian does this week at Jacksonville, and the Vikings still have favorable matchups against Chicago, Detroit, Arizona and Atlanta remaining, but Berrian has a lot to prove, starting in Week 12.

You can e-mail us your Fantasy Football questions to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Stockwatch in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses to all questions.

 
 
 
Player News
Rashard Mendenhall
PUP list in Mendenhall's future
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
2:15 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Mendenhall tore his right ACL in Week 17 of last season; recovery time for such injuries is anywhere from nine months to a year.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He'll likely get the first crack at starting in place of Mendenhall. There's still a lot of time between now and the regular season, but for now it's probably safe to expect Mendenhall to not be at even close to 100 percent to start the year, which will absolutely impact his Fantasy value. By August, you might be drafting Mendenhall as a middle- to late-round sleeper you'll have to sit on for a while. We'll keep you posted on Mendenhall as best as we can.

Randy Moss
Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
10:10 AM
News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to." NFL Network reports that teams have already been calling his agent following the news.
Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Calvin Johnson
Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
9:39 AM
News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.
Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

DeSean Jackson
Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
9:36 AM
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.
Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Isaac Redman
Redman in line to start for Steelers?
Isaac Redman, RB, PIT
2:23 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. That would open the door for Isaac Redman to be the starting rusher entering training camp.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He's also stepped up while working with Mendenhall and without him, though his one other start in 2011 was a flop (61 total yards, no touchdowns vs. Tennessee). By August we might recommend drafting Redman with a pick in Round 6 or 7 as a good early-season starting option with potential to be a quality Fantasy choice for the entire season. We'll see how the Steelers' run game shakes out.

Steve Slaton
Slaton, Dolphins likely parting ways
Steve Slaton, RB, MIA
12:56 PM
News: The Palm Beach Post reports that RB Steve Slaton is not expected to return to the Dolphins in 2012. Slaton played in three games this season with zero starts after being picked up on waivers before Week 4. He had 17 carries for 64 yards (3.8 average) with one touchdown and a long of 28 and also returned three kickoffs for 85 yards. Slaton was signed as insurance early in the season when both Reggie Bush (groin) and Daniel Thomas (hamstring) battled injuries.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Slaton plays in 2012, but he likely has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in all leagues on Draft Day.

Doug Baldwin
Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
11:14 AM
News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”
Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Hines Ward
Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
9:53 AM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on the future of Hines Ward. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported previously that if the Steelers did decide to release Ward, he was unaware of it. NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report. Ward's 2012 salary is high and he's expected to at least take a significant pay cut, if not get released altogether. Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Josh Morgan
Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
9:49 AM
News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

Jeremy Shockey
Panthers could bring back Shockey
Jeremy Shockey, TE, CAR
9:46 AM
News: The Charlotte Observer considers re-signing free agent TE Jeremy Shockey a "high priority" this offseason. Shockey was the No. 2 TE for the Panthers behind Greg Olsen, and he had a productive season when he caught 37 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns and missed only one game to injury.
Analysis: Though not the same receiver he was a decade ago, Shockey still is a dependable target, particularly in the red zone. If his asking price is too high, Panthers could turn to Gary Barnidge, who was having a great 2011 camp before breaking his ankle. Keep an eye on what happens with Shockey, and if he returns to the Panthers as expected he would be a No. 2 Fantasy TE on Draft Day worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

 
 
 
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