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Scott White

Tradeoff: Time to pull the trigger!

By | Fantasy Writer


The Tradeoff gives our Scott White a chance to react to actual trades made in CBSSports.com Fantasy leagues, declaring a winner for each trade after weighing the pros and cons for each side.

Your commissioner drew the line months ago.

You didn't think it mattered at the time, not when it seemed so far away. Nov. 26 ... make it Nov. 1, for all you care. You have so much football to play between now and then that it can't come fast enough.

Or so it seemed back in August. But now, staring down the barrel of tomorrow, you start to sing a different tune.

Oh yes, it's deadline time. Will you pull the trigger?

You've deliberated all you can, exhausted every "just one more week" you have to see if that iffy proposition will pull through. This week, if you still hold out any hope of making that big acquisition to help your team turn the corner, it's now or never.

So if you have a plan, act on it now -- right now, as in before you even reach the end of this column. And if you don't have a plan, perhaps the trades assessed here will help you concoct one. Hey, if these guys can swing blockbuster deals at the deadline, so can you.

Clock's ticking.

As with all the teams featured in this column, the names have been changed to protect the ignorant:

Trade No. 1: The rising cost of a quarterback
The Belly of the Beast gets: Bernard Berrian, Maurice Jones-Drew and Kurt Warner
The Sundried Tomatoes get: Joseph Addai, Ryan Grant and Marques Colston

In some cases owners could bring back quite a haul for Kurt Warner. (US Presswire)  
In some cases owners could bring back quite a haul for Kurt Warner. (US Presswire)  
Leave it to me to begin with a deal so even-steven I chase half my audience away in the very act of picking a side. Then again, I just told half to leave and go make a trade, and half probably never started reading because their trade deadline already passed. So since we're already dealing with fractions of fractions of viewers consuming this piece, I might as well chase the rest of you away. Let's make this easy: Under the assumption I can play all three, I want Addai, Grant and Colston.

Oh, now you want to know why, don't you? Typical. I'll make that easy, too: I like both Addai and Grant more than I like Jones-Drew.

But what about those other guys -- Warner, Berrian and Colston? Fine players, all of them, but I don't consider them at the crux of this deal.

Sure, Warner now ranks as the highest-scoring quarterback in Fantasy, but that designation in and of itself leads me to believe the Sundried Tomatoes must have a decent alternative at quarterback, either a slow-to-emerge early-rounder like Peyton Manning, a similar late-round breakout like Aaron Rodgers or even a sudden overachiever off the waiver wire like Tyler Thigpen. Whoever they have, they feel like they can survive the loss of Warner (otherwise, they would have asked for a quarterback in return), and for the bounty they stand to receive, I have to agree with them (again, assuming they have places to start both Addai and Grant).

I realize if the Belly of the Beast had a hole at quarterback holding it back all season, it just filled it the best way possible by acquiring Warner, but look at all it gave up. It cast aside two early-round picks finally beginning to show their promise for Jones-Drew, who has strung together a couple of good weeks but remains the most inconsistent player of the three with the least potential to blow up going forward, especially when you look at Addai's cupcake schedule.

The Belly of the Beast filled one hole by creating another, likely debilitating itself as much as anything else, and while the Sundried Tomatoes ride their new running backs into the playoffs, the Belly of the Beast, with its patchwork backfield, will limp to the finish line clutching its 37-year-old arm.

Not to mention it gave up the better receiver in Colston for Berrian, but like I said, that doesn't even matter when you consider the rest of the deal.

Winner: The Sundried Tomatoes for sacrificing one part of their lineup to improve three others.

Of course, after reading that assessment, you might assume I don't like Warner. To that, I say au contraire, mon capitan, and wish I knew of a more fitting way to address you in French.

Trade No. 2: Now announcing the great McGahee giveaway
The Inner Workings of a Clock get: Kurt Warner
The Hand Removed from the Body gets: Willis McGahee

Warner is, statistically, the best quarterback in Fantasy. He's also the most consistent, throwing multiple touchdowns in all but two games this season -- his first and his last -- and throwing for less than 300 yards in only four. He succeeds every week, regardless of matchup, and I can't envision too many scenarios where I'd bench him. So let's get this straight upfront: I like him.

But I applaud this trade by the Inner Workings of a Clock not so much because I like Warner, but because I hate McGahee. I hereby wash my hands of him -- and I say that as a guy who drafted him in two-thirds of his leagues.

You can't count on him for anything. He has exactly three weeks where he pulled his weight in Fantasy, and each time, he disappeared into the unknown void the next.

Matchups don't matter -- he averaged 2.5 yards per carry against the Raiders. Health doesn't matter -- he was active and didn't play two times this season. Every time you start McGahee, you risk Fantasy suicide, and with Ray Rice and LeRon McClain consistently cutting into his carries, when do you expect it to end?

Quite frankly, 11 weeks is long enough to risk suicide. You can't mess around with unpredictability, not when the downside means you end up with nothing.

So I'm done with McGahee. He could run for 250 yards one week, and I doubt I'd start him the next. So what good does he do me? Give me the No. 1 quarterback in Fantasy. I'll fill out my lineup with Antonio Pittman, Peyton Hillis, and whatever else turns up on the waiver wire, thank you very much.

Winner: The Inner Workings of a Clock for finding some sucker to take McGahee off their hands.

But maybe you consider that trade an easy call. If you can get the top Fantasy quarterback for McGahee, you'd do it, obviously. So what about this one?

Trade No. 3: Want more? Get Moore.
The Unnecessarily Relived Tragedies get: Lance Moore
Bring Back the Monacle! gets: Willis McGahee

Now you get a better idea how far my hatred of McGahee extends. I would deal him for a guy who's bounced on and off the waiver wire at least three times this season.

But that doesn't mean I'd waive McGahee himself, nor does it mean I'd trade him for waiver fodder. Yep, I pulled the old switcheroo on you again. I'm here to talk about Moore, not McGahee.

Because in case you haven't noticed, Moore is good -- as in No. 2 Fantasy wide receiver good or start-him-at-all-times good.

Think Eddie Royal. Think Jerricho Cotchery. Think Vincent Jackson or DeSean Jackson.

Moore's name belongs among them, maybe even above them considering the offense he plays for. Just look at the numbers. He has at least six catches for 75 yards and a touchdown each of the last three weeks, compiling 49 of his 52 catches and 585 of his 609 yards over his last eight games for averages of 6.1 and 73.1 per game. And considering Marques Colston returned from his thumb injury three weeks ago, I think we can assume Moore doesn't figure to go away anytime soon.

Hey, with Drew Brees throwing for nearly 400 yards every game, someone has to end up on the other end. Scratch that -- multiple someones.

So try trading for Moore while he still wallows in relative anonymity. You might not even have to give up a player as good (good?) as McGahee.

Winner: The Unnecessarily Relived Tragedies for swapping the overrated for the underrated.

Trade No. 4: It looks and feels good as new
The Plastic Souvenir Cups get: Jake Delhomme and Marvin Harrison
Timeout for Tonya gets: DeAngelo Williams

The average Harrison owner who saw him break out with nine catches for 77 yards and a touchdown in Week 11 probably said, "Perfect! Now I can start him."

I saw it myself, and know what I said? "Perfect! Now I can trade him."

Ladies and gentlemen, the performance screams fluke. I actually heard it during the telecast in a shrieky voice that I knew didn't belong to either of the commentators. Freaky, I know.

Yes, you might try to claim Harrison just suddenly, magically got back in form, but stop and ask yourself which argument has more validity: that coming off a major knee injury, a 36-year-old simply needed 10 weeks to shake off the rust and became as good a player as ever, or that he, in light of his age and his injury, simply doesn't have the speed and agility he once did, happened to have a good game with Reggie Wayne hobbled by an ankle injury, and will revert back to his pedestrian ways Week 12 and beyond.

I think I'd bet every last penny on the latter scenario. I mean, for all his supposed greatness, the guy averaged only 8.6 yards per reception.

This deal looks like an absolute coup for Timeout for Tonya, who managed to couple Harrison with Delhomme, a No. 2 Fantasy quarterback coming off two miserable performances, and get an up-and-coming running back like Williams -- who, by the way, quietly has 368 yards and four touchdowns over his last three games. I realize he has to split carries with Jonathan Stewart, but with those numbers, who cares?

Winner: Time Out for Tonya for picking the perfect time to get rid of rubbish.

Trade No. 5: When the love of Manning goes too far
The Steadfast Refusal to Play Chinese Checkers gets: Dwayne Bowe, Ronnie Brown and Tyler Thigpen
The Understated Misnomer of "Glove Compartment" gets: Peyton Manning

Whenever you see a three-for-one deal in Fantasy, you have cause for pause.

It just looks so unnatural, like some Fantasy veteran convinced some newbie that quantity trumps quality when we all know that, outside of especially deep leagues, it doesn't.

But every once in a while, you'll find an experienced Fantasy owner so madly in love with a player that he'll pack plenty of quality into that quantity. Clearly, Manning caught the Understated Misnomer of "Glove Compartment's eye.

Which is understandable. He looks like the best player involved in this deal, his recent resurgence making him one of Fantasy's elite again. But having said that, I'd have no problem with someone trading him for Brown straight-up. A No. 1 Fantasy quarterback for a No. 2 Fantasy running back sounds about right.

So you can imagine how I'd think the Steadfast Refusal to Play Chinese Checkers really pulled ahead here by acquiring the K.C. connection of Bowe and Thigpen, who've worked in conjunction to rise to Fantasy prominence.

I don't know if Thigpen can keep playing as well as he has. I certainly don't think he'll play as well as Manning. But after four weeks of stud numbers, he deserves the benefit of the doubt, especially with Oakland and Denver coming up on his schedule. If you have Thigpen as your starting quarterback, you can survive. For Brown and Bowe, you can make do.

But even more important than his own numbers, Thigpen's unexpected breakout has had a trickle down effect to his receivers -- none more than Bowe, who can finally add some touchdowns to that consistent yardage he's racked up all season long. As a big, physical target and the clear No. 1 wide receiver on a team with a suddenly competitive passing game, he looks like no worse than a No. 2 Fantasy option, better than Braylon Edwards, Plaxico Burress or Lee Evans.

For a must-start running back and a must-start wide receiver, I don't see how the Steadfast Refusal to Play Chinese Checkers couldn't give up Manning, especially when it gets a quarterback like Thigpen to soften the blow.

Winner: The Steadfast Refusal to Play Chinese Checkers for getting a stacked lineup with just one player.

Do you have a Fantasy Football question? Send your thoughts to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and we'll get to as many as we can. Be sure to put Attn: Tradeoff in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
Rashard Mendenhall
PUP list in Mendenhall's future
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
2:15 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Mendenhall tore his right ACL in Week 17 of last season; recovery time for such injuries is anywhere from nine months to a year.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He'll likely get the first crack at starting in place of Mendenhall. There's still a lot of time between now and the regular season, but for now it's probably safe to expect Mendenhall to not be at even close to 100 percent to start the year, which will absolutely impact his Fantasy value. By August, you might be drafting Mendenhall as a middle- to late-round sleeper you'll have to sit on for a while. We'll keep you posted on Mendenhall as best as we can.

Randy Moss
Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
10:10 AM
News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to." NFL Network reports that teams have already been calling his agent following the news.
Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Calvin Johnson
Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
9:39 AM
News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.
Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

DeSean Jackson
Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
9:36 AM
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.
Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Isaac Redman
Redman in line to start for Steelers?
Isaac Redman, RB, PIT
2:23 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. That would open the door for Isaac Redman to be the starting rusher entering training camp.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He's also stepped up while working with Mendenhall and without him, though his one other start in 2011 was a flop (61 total yards, no touchdowns vs. Tennessee). By August we might recommend drafting Redman with a pick in Round 6 or 7 as a good early-season starting option with potential to be a quality Fantasy choice for the entire season. We'll see how the Steelers' run game shakes out.

Steve Slaton
Slaton, Dolphins likely parting ways
Steve Slaton, RB, MIA
12:56 PM
News: The Palm Beach Post reports that RB Steve Slaton is not expected to return to the Dolphins in 2012. Slaton played in three games this season with zero starts after being picked up on waivers before Week 4. He had 17 carries for 64 yards (3.8 average) with one touchdown and a long of 28 and also returned three kickoffs for 85 yards. Slaton was signed as insurance early in the season when both Reggie Bush (groin) and Daniel Thomas (hamstring) battled injuries.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Slaton plays in 2012, but he likely has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in all leagues on Draft Day.

Doug Baldwin
Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
11:14 AM
News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”
Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Hines Ward
Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
9:53 AM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on the future of Hines Ward. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported previously that if the Steelers did decide to release Ward, he was unaware of it. NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report. Ward's 2012 salary is high and he's expected to at least take a significant pay cut, if not get released altogether. Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Josh Morgan
Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
9:49 AM
News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

Jeremy Shockey
Panthers could bring back Shockey
Jeremy Shockey, TE, CAR
9:46 AM
News: The Charlotte Observer considers re-signing free agent TE Jeremy Shockey a "high priority" this offseason. Shockey was the No. 2 TE for the Panthers behind Greg Olsen, and he had a productive season when he caught 37 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns and missed only one game to injury.
Analysis: Though not the same receiver he was a decade ago, Shockey still is a dependable target, particularly in the red zone. If his asking price is too high, Panthers could turn to Gary Barnidge, who was having a great 2011 camp before breaking his ankle. Keep an eye on what happens with Shockey, and if he returns to the Panthers as expected he would be a No. 2 Fantasy TE on Draft Day worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

 
 
 
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