History Lessons: Rivers, Addai far from locks

Start Peyton Manning. Start LaDainian Tomlinson.

Probably two of the most obvious statements someone could make this week considering that Manning will be throwing against the NFL's worst-ranked pass defense and Tomlinson will be running against one of the NFL's worst-ranked run defenses, ranked 25th with 15 rushing scores yielded.

It's their teammates that we're worried about.

Joseph Addai might be watching a lot of Peyton Manning throwing against San Diego. (US Presswire)

Indianapolis ranks ninth against the pass and has allowed two passing touchdowns all season. That's not a typo. San Diego's run defense is also substantially better than its pass defense, allowing 105.2 rush yards per game and only six scores on the ground. How do these factors impact the play of Joseph Addai and Philip Rivers?

Let's start with Rivers, who had mixed results in two games against the Colts in 2007 (one regular-season meeting, one postseason meeting). In San Diego, Rivers completed 13-of-24 passes for a measly 104 yards with two interceptions and a fumble recovered by the Colts for a touchdown. In Indianapolis, Rivers was decidedly better in three quarters of play, completing 14-of-19 passes for 264 yards and three touchdowns with one interception, with his longest pass being a dump-off to Darren Sproles that went 56 yards for a score.

The disturbing trend in both games is that Rivers didn't throw more than 24 passes, largely due to the moderate success that San Diego's running backs had in both games, and due to the Colts' owning the time of possession in both games (both Chargers wins). That's bad news for Rivers' Fantasy owners this week since the Chargers are expected to dial up plenty of runs, following a trend among Colts' opponents: Aside from Indianapolis' Week 6 blowout vs. Baltimore, every team has called running plays involving backs at least 23 times against the Colts with an average of 31.3 in the Colts' nine games outside of the Ravens win. Additionally, there have been four times this season where an opponent has run the ball more than passed, and the Colts are 1-3 in those games, with the lone win coming last week against the Texans.

Bottom line: Assuming his defense can come up big against Manning -- and that's tough to assume even though they did last year, picking him off eight times in two games -- Rivers could be handing off much more than throwing. That has a domino effect on the expectations for Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers.

Is the news any better for Addai? In his two games against the Bolts last year, Addai totaled 182 yards with no scores. That's a strike against him, as is the reality that he suffers from the same kind of problem Rivers does. Because the Chargers are so awful against the pass, teams opt to throw on them instead of run. Only once this season has a team run the ball more than thrown it against the Chargers. Normally, that's not a surprise since teams tend to pass more these days anyway, but the Bolts have allowed 40 passing attempts or more in six games. Not surprisingly, they're 2-4 in those games. Figure the Colts to pass a bundle, limiting the upside Addai will have this week because he won't get a slew of carries unless the Colts build a monster lead.

Jets to slay the Titans?

You'll find the Titans ranked 10th agains the run with 10 rushing scores allowed and sixth against the pass with five passing touchdowns allowed. They've got a great, aggressive 4-3 scheme with a good pass rush and up-front run defense that works in tandem with a very, very talented secondary. As a result, the Titans have allowed one 100-yard rusher (Steve Slaton Week 3), one 300-yard passer (Aaron Rodgers, Week 9) and one 100-yard receiver (Donald Driver, Week 9). Combine that with the reality that Brett Favre has had zero 300-yard games this year and his receivers have a total of three 100-yard games (one each for Jerricho Cotchery, Laveranues Coles and tight end Dustin Keller) and an argument can be made that this won't be a good week for the Jets' passing game.

But the Titans aren't perfect -- even with their incredible numbers, they've showed cracks in the armor, notably against the run. Running backs have especially gotten the best of Tennessee. Last week, Maurice Jones-Drew scored twice on them and totaled 93 yards. The week before, Matt Forte scored on a pass and totaled 126 yards. Ryan Grant rushed for 86 yards the week prior and Dominic Rhodes had 109 yards combined in Week 8. In fact, you would have to go back to the Titans' Week 7 game at Kansas City to find an example of the club shutting down an opponent's run game (the Chiefs were thin at the position heading into the game to begin with).

And just as the Titans are struggling with their run defense, Jets running back Thomas Jones has exceeded expectations. Jones has topped 100 total yards in four of his last five games with three 100-yard games and nine total touchdowns in his last six games. The Jets have done a nice job feeding him the ball on the ground and utilizing his backfield mate, Leon Washington (at least 50 total yards in three of his last four games with three scores in that span).

A smart football fan would have to figure the Jets to at least play balanced on offense. What helps the Jets is that their run defense should corral the suddenly slumping Chris Johnson, but Kerry Collins has proven that he can move the ball through the air, and that plays into the Jets' defensive weakness. Only unless the Titans move quickly on offense should we expect Favre and his receiving counterparts to post incredible stat totals. Otherwise, figure that Favre, Cotchery, Coles and Keller will have nominal totals (not terrible but nothing exciting), but Jones and Washington could make a dent -- maybe even enough to end the Titans' undefeated season.

Food for thought

Because historical data is just part of the equation in determining whether or not a Fantasy option is good or bad, the following notes are more for your information than actual suggestions on starts and sits for the week. If anything, it might help you make a lineup decision.

History suggests ...